I think it's more accurate to say the NCAA shut everything down over the fear of the unknown vs 10k deaths. that's hindsight.
which is to say, the odds football will be played is going up each time these projections go down IMO.
True.
That fear of the unknown the decision makers have to evaluate is basically what's keeping me from jumping on the whole "yah there's sports again!" train.
Like, the guys in charge will have an idea soon-ish of estimated deaths, and what tools/tests we have to fight it. The answer could be a lot, it could be not much more than we have now. But they can essentially estimate that risk.
There's still a large amount of space for fear of the unknown. The prime one, is there a significant chance of a fall wave, either new strain, or just relaxing of distancing leading to flare ups.
That won't be known until it happens, and I'm not sure how NCAA/Uni guys will "price" that. So far NCAA is nuking things 4-6 weeks at a time, and big time schools like OSU are keeping kids away until August.
We would need to see a radical change of heart to think we've turned the corner on that decision making. The best we are getting in evidence is a bunch of different folks scheduling things and hoping they won't be canceled.