lets look at his performance against Iowa and teams that are most like your middle of the road Big 10 teams (TCU, OSU, K-State, Baylor) and consider a 3 TD game as a blowout
2016
TCU L (blown out)
OSU L
KSU L
Baylor L
Iowa - L (blown out)
*should also note they lost to FCS Northern Iowa this year
2017
TCU - W
OSU - L
KSU - L
Baylor - W
Iowa - L
*beat Northern Iowa by 14 this year
2018
TCU - L
OSU - W
KSU - W
Baylor - W
Iowa - L
*didn't have to play their vaunted rival Northern Iowa this year
2019
TCU - W
OSU - L
KSU - L
Baylor - L
Iowa - L
*got taken to 3OT by Northern Iowa
2020
TCU - W
OSU - L
KSU - W
Baylor - W
*played neither Iowa nor Northern Iowa, happens to be their best season.
2021
OSU - W
KSU - W
Baylor - L
Iowa - L (late score by ISU made the game look closer than it was)
*beat Northern Iowa by 6
that's 10-16 against teams that likely wouldn't sniff the CCG most years.
while his tendency to snag an upset win is attractive, the fact that he has been stagnant for the past 5 years in a relatively weak conference makes me skeptical that he hasn't already reached his ceiling.