Interesting analysis here, discussing a lot of the common talking points we’ve gone over. It’s a long ass Twitter thread.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247727105867210756.html
Particularly of interest...
“4. The economic damage we’re causing with COVID-containment lockdowns is a cure worse than the disease, and will lead to a lot of human suffering. So we should end the lockdowns soon.”
I’m sympathetic to this argument, in part because a lot of people freak out if you even mention the economic cost. This isn’t about dollar worship or stock prices—a lot of conservatives are genuinely worried about the anxiety, stress, and death that comes with a severe recession.
That said, one big problem with this argument is that it overstates how much of the “lockdown” has come from policymakers.
The Ohio governor closed restaurants at 9pm on March 15. Here’s the foot traffic data from OpenTable for Ohio, March 15 through March 5 (compared to the same days in 2019). This is not business as usual:
On March 17, Bloomberg ran an article about the UK’s approach to herd immunity, making it seem as if London was operating normally.
But that same OpenTable data suggested restaurant traffic was down on March 17 by 89 percent, and had been down substantially the weeks prior. Again, this was *before* the UK government closed restaurants and bars.
Some have pointed to Sweden’s laissez-faire approach to the virus as a model to emulate. Set to the side whether that’s accurate (it’s incomplete at best), Swedish economic forecasts are grim.
The most recent estimate I’ve seen from Swedbank is a 4 percent 2020 contraction. Goldman’s late March estimate for the US was a 3.8 percent contraction (they’ve since further adjusted down to 6.2 percent for the US).
In other words, a lot of the social distancing appears organic, and independent of the policy response. That doesn’t mean good policy can’t help (or bad policy hurt), but the idea that our economy just hums along absent lockdown orders from the president and various governors...
...is implausible. It turns out that people get freaked out about catching a deadly disease and adjust their behavior accordingly.