ADVERTISEMENT

Covid 6.0

Status
Not open for further replies.
fearfearfear

panicpanicpanic

CNNCNNCNN

Lol!
Haven't watched CNN, just looking at raw data of critical cases in UK. Might be some gaps in reporting but only 4% of critical cases had comorbidities. 25% were younger than 52...half died. Still a vast majority of deaths are old and sick people but moderately ill is still pneumonia, which is still 2-3 weeks of being laid up. Severe is a hospital visit for oxygen, and critical is going to leave you scarred or dead. Half the population seems to be in pretty good shape, but a majority of these are younger than 20. Smokers and vapers seem screwed. So stop.
 
Not everybody who gets infected/exposed carries the virus at detectable levels for 2 weeks. The only way to assess whether somebody had been exposed on day one of the cruise is to do antibody testing unless the cruise was a very short one.. Trust me. I've dealt with things like this is my profession. I don't know how long these folks were on the boat I guess. IF it were something less than a week to 10 days then yeah I would say that they had found everybody who had been infected. IF it was over 2 weeks, then some could have fallen through the cracks.
I know they were testing people without symptoms at like 4 days after they docked...they started finding people in that window from infection to onset and then tested everybody. Not sure how long it dragged out though to get through 3000 people, and some were dippin for their home countries.
 
Haven't watched CNN, just looking at raw data of critical cases in UK. Might be some gaps in reporting but only 4% of critical cases had comorbidities. 25% were younger than 52...half died. Still a vast majority of deaths are old and sick people but moderately ill is still pneumonia, which is still 2-3 weeks of being laid up. Severe is a hospital visit for oxygen, and critical is going to leave you scarred or dead. Half the population seems to be in pretty good shape, but a majority of these are younger than 20. Smokers and vapers seem screwed. So stop.

What is your point?

I swear you are just like my sister.

Nitpicknitpicknitpick on some stupid shit topics.

CNN in a nut shell.
 
So they tested ALL of the passengers then for COVID-19? That still wouldn't indicate if a person had been exposed early on and had quickly eliminated the virus though without becoming ill. The only way to ascertain that would be to test all virus negative persons via an antibody test to discover previous exposure.

I do believe they tested everyone, but I haven't been able to find definitive info on that.

Did an antibody test exist then?
 
I do believe they tested everyone, but I haven't been able to find definitive info on that.

Did an antibody test exist then?

All I know is a cruise ship had like 4 dead people and couldn't dock anywhere but FL.

That's contagious.

You people need to write in direct sentences.
 
You want to continue to attack me and make it personal, fine by me. You are the one that said another poster didn’t vote the way you like because he is brainwashed by the evil media (but not the ones you like, they are different). I replied that I assume he voted the way he did because he believes in the basic principles most Democrats do. Sorry you are so offended by that. You attacked him and me (again) no one said anything about you.

As for me, yes my wife and I are fortunate enough to be able to give back to our community and country (not political candidates). We do not have the means to give 30K in a year, so congrats on that flex.

However, I’m certain it’s your personal attacks and stereotypes that need adjusted. I do read a variety of publications and have voted for many candidates from both parties, as I am not an ideologue married to one party come hell or high water.

As a matter of fact, I am a registered Republican. In all honesty, it is because I live in a red state and primaries are very important on the state and local level. Still, I very much relate to the moderate, common sense republicans, but have very little patience for the extreme ultra-conservatives, attacking any and every one that dares to have an opinion not endorsed by Bannon or Carlson.
I'm not married to a party either. But I refuse to vote for candidates that advocate for late term abortions among other things. I don't object to paying taxes IF I know that they are going to be spent wisely. So far, I haven't seen ONE case of the Democratic party being able to budget and spend wisely. I live in a very red state which balances it's budget every year. This year will be tough because a large part of our tax income is from tourism and sales tax. The good news is that our Republican led state government has budgeted conservatively and we have some reserve funds to fall back on in an emergency. It's an amazing concept. Only spend what you can afford.
 
I'm not married to a party either. But I refuse to vote for candidates that advocate for late term abortions among other things. I don't object to being paid taxes IF I know that they are going to be spent wisely. So far, I haven't seen ONE case of the Democratic party being able to budget and spend wisely. I live in a very red state which balances it's budget every year. This year will be tough because a large part of our tax income is from tourism and sales tax. The good news is that our Republican led state government has budgeted conservatively and we have some reserve funds to fall back on in an emergency. It's an amazing concept. Only spend what you can afford.

I don’t believe any states are allowed to run in the red, are they? In the state I live in, Tea Party Republicans ran the state economy into the ground, because they can’t do math and chose to give massive tax breaks to the ones that funded their campaigns. We were robbing the highway fund, delaying payments to state employee funds, cutting public schools in the middle of the school year, on and on. A Democrat Governor and a moderate Republican legislature has fixed it and we now have a large surplus, to hopefully withstand the incoming recession.

It has been my experience that Ultra-Conservatives cannot balance a budget. They will give out tax cuts left and right, but cannot cut the services needed to balance the budget and can’t calculate the impact of their tax cuts.

Even on the national level (where Republicans had been more moderate), who was the last President to have a budget surplus and who racked up the biggest deficits? It’s an amazing concept, you have to bring in enough revenue to pay your bills and if you just give all your revenue away, you can’t balance a budget.
 
Last edited:
Here's another aside: That graph and the model it's based on hasn't been right once.

And if you think shutting down bars and restaurants and gyms is the solution I feel bad for you.

I prefer you don't have any emotions for me.... By the end of the week, I will feel bad for the 500,000 people that have tested positive, the 15,000 deaths, and the 10s of millions of people that were close to someone who died. The amount of my sorrow for those people will not increase or decrease based on if the graph is right or wrong to one extreme or the other.

If you wanna go to the gym and then to church and then out to eat.... I guess you are out of luck for awhile. While society searches for a solution, this 'shutting down' is saving a few lives and for right now I am ok with that. I don't have a solution, other than isolation, that will slow the spread of this virus through our population. Have the last three weeks saved 1000 or 1000000 Americans from a premature death? No one will ever know. I mean, I am sure you would have lived if nothing would have changed socially..... but how close to your circle does it have to come before shutting down bars and gyms seems like a wise decision, at least temporarily?
 
  • Like
Reactions: dinglefritz
I prefer you don't have any emotions for me.... By the end of the week, I will feel bad for the 500,000 people that have tested positive, the 15,000 deaths, and the 10s of millions of people that were close to someone who died. The amount of my sorrow for those people will not increase or decrease based on if the graph is right or wrong to one extreme or the other.

If you wanna go to the gym and then to church and then out to eat.... I guess you are out of luck for awhile. While society searches for a solution, this 'shutting down' is saving a few lives and for right now I am ok with that. I don't have a solution, other than isolation, that will slow the spread of this virus through our population. Have the last three weeks saved 1000 or 1000000 Americans from a premature death? No one will ever know. I mean, I am sure you would have lived if nothing would have changed socially..... but how close to your circle does it have to come before shutting down bars and gyms seems like a wise decision, at least temporarily?
We are going to live with this flattened curve IMO until they distribute a vaccine unless there's some miracle this summer. I can not imagine feeling that I can safely go to out to dinner until I know I've either had the virus or have had the vaccine.
 
"But I don't do business with snakes. I don't do business with snake motherf---ers. I try not to do business with openly snakes or people who are snake-like."

"Kevin Garnett" 2024 Democratic Party Nominee?
 
We are going to live with this flattened curve IMO until they distribute a vaccine unless there's some miracle this summer. I can not imagine feeling that I can safely go to out to dinner until I know I've either had the virus or have had the vaccine.
Went on a long bike ride through the city today. I have never seen more people out walking with their families, sitting on the porch, kids out playing. Many had masks on..most were somewhat careful about 6 feet. But I feel as if people are experiencing a slowdown in their lives that might be beneficial outside of the collapse of our economy. People are cooking at home, exercising, spending time with loved ones. I do believe the fast forward society has made us lose some things we didn't know we lost.
 
Went on a long bike ride through the city today. I have never seen more people out walking with their families, sitting on the porch, kids out playing. Many had masks on..most were somewhat careful about 6 feet. But I feel as if people are experiencing a slowdown in their lives that might be beneficial outside of the collapse of our economy. People are cooking at home, exercising, spending time with loved ones. I do believe the fast forward society has made us lose some things we didn't know we lost.
I'm going to put on 20 lbs. I'm afraid. I have family sheltering with us and two of them like to cook. Had homemade fresh crepes yesterday. We've had cakes, pies, pastas, lots of taters in different forms, turkey and dressing, homemade burritos with white chile sauce etc etc etc etc.....yikes. Oh yeah fresh homemade bread too. Other than the food and company the biggest change for me has been not being able to go eat out 1-2x per week at my favorite joint. Other than that it's pretty much business as usual.
 
I am sure you know because you seem intelligent, but seriously this crap of people being in one party or the other and having vastly different amounts of empathy is stupid. The vast majority of people care about other people. They may have different opinions on approaches for how to help, but it it so tiring to see people painting a broad stroke over either party.

There are whacko zealots on both side, but for the most part the majority of US citizens are good people and care.

This isn't directed towards just you. It is all over this thread. It is honestly sad and mostly driven by a very minor group of outliers.

Sorry, it just gets old.
I agree, generalizations get old...on both sides. That is the reason I refuse to register as Dem or Republican; and no, I am not a socialist. I know what I stand for; I dont need someone putting me in a box. I just got into a debate with a family member. I made an observation about some of Trump's behavior and
immediately heard about how aweful Obama was, how he ruined the country, and how the Dems are trying to make this a socialist country etc. Im not for sure how any of that pertained to the observation I was sharing. I like numerous politicians in both parties; there are some politicians in both parties I think are self-serving. I dont get the need that some people have to assume they know other people's views....and
I'm going to put on 20 lbs. I'm afraid. I have family sheltering with us and two of them like to cook. Had homemade fresh crepes yesterday. We've had cakes, pies, pastas, lots of taters in different forms, turkey and dressing, homemade burritos with white chile sauce etc etc etc etc.....yikes. Oh yeah fresh homemade bread too. Other than the food and company the biggest change for me has been not being able to go eat out 1-2x per week at my favorite joint. Other than that it's pretty much business as usual.
I most certainly have not been spending as much money.....my budget is winning as I am still working
 
I prefer you don't have any emotions for me.... By the end of the week, I will feel bad for the 500,000 people that have tested positive, the 15,000 deaths, and the 10s of millions of people that were close to someone who died. The amount of my sorrow for those people will not increase or decrease based on if the graph is right or wrong to one extreme or the other.

If you wanna go to the gym and then to church and then out to eat.... I guess you are out of luck for awhile. While society searches for a solution, this 'shutting down' is saving a few lives and for right now I am ok with that. I don't have a solution, other than isolation, that will slow the spread of this virus through our population. Have the last three weeks saved 1000 or 1000000 Americans from a premature death? No one will ever know. I mean, I am sure you would have lived if nothing would have changed socially..... but how close to your circle does it have to come before shutting down bars and gyms seems like a wise decision, at least temporarily?

700,000+ People have died in the US so far this year. But you only care about 15,000 china virus casualties. Got it.
 
I'm going to put on 20 lbs. I'm afraid. I have family sheltering with us and two of them like to cook. Had homemade fresh crepes yesterday. We've had cakes, pies, pastas, lots of taters in different forms, turkey and dressing, homemade burritos with white chile sauce etc etc etc etc.....yikes. Oh yeah fresh homemade bread too. Other than the food and company the biggest change for me has been not being able to go eat out 1-2x per week at my favorite joint. Other than that it's pretty much business as usual.

Yah my wife made homemade soft pretzels today. Spaghetti and homemade meatballs the other day.
We just finished off a big pot of loaded potato soup and fresh bread.

I'm supposed to be working out and getting trimmer but between the kids needing me to educate them and her cooking it's not going to happen.

I've been making cheese omlettes like a boss and I don't normally eat breakfast before I go to work. So there's an extra how many calories a day.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dinglefritz
700,000+ People have died in the US so far this year. But you only care about 15,000 china virus casualties. Got it.

This line of arguing is dumb and disingenuous.

Politicians on any side of the aisle have run against crime since forever and no one has ever said they don't care about murders because heart disease or diabetes was a bigger number or whatever.

People have long cared about circumstances surrounding events as much or more than they care about absolute numbers. Everywhere on all sides of an issue.

Edit... there is an argument to be made about what level of response is appropriate. Tucker Carlson has an opinion piece up saying Fauci should not make economic policy. All due respect to Tucker Fauci isn't making economic policy. He's advising in medical crisis response that has economic impacts. It's Trump job to take, leave or otherwise modify the recommendation. And I do believe you will find Trump's name on all the proper marching orders. If the base is upset Trump can't or won't stand up to a four foot tall 80 year old man...the heat belongs with Trump for not being capable of running his own enterprise.

This really shouldn't be in question. Tucker's own organization has reported about how Trump has many advisor who disagree with Fauci but Trump has chosen so far to give Fauci more weight. That will not likely continue forever but at the rate the economy is shedding jobs and the level of cooperation the governor's are likely to give Trump in three weeks...it might be too slow to appease his base.
 
Last edited:
700,000+ People have died in the US so far this year. But you only care about 15,000 china virus casualties. Got it.
No... ONLY.... Who the hell said only? I care about cancer that is all too common in my family, I care about drunk drivers, I care about addiction to pain killers, I care about suicide, I care about texting and driving...... Do not pretend to understand what I care about. Concern yourself with what you can control; social distancing is the only control I have over a virus with larger ramifications that I am willing to play russian roulette with. You go ahead and keep pulling the trigger, hopefully there aren't any bullets.
 
So...do you disagree that 100,000 fatalities would be easy to hit by May 31st if no protective measures were put in place, and we had continued on as normal...which is ultimately what this argument is about (and what people like GBRforLife1 seem to think we should do)?

And...I get what you;re saying. Maybe tell GBRforLife1 not to be so intellectually lazy and not just argue that my math is wrong.

Just answer part 1 of one question Mr. Intellectually Lazy. If the deaths double every 15 days, how long until we're all dead?
 
Just answer part 1 of one question Mr. Intellectually Lazy. If the deaths double every 15 days, how long until we're all dead?

Well, as more people build immunity the r value decreases over time and the virus deaths slow eventually, and not everyone will die from the virus.

So...assuming there are no massive changes in science to extend lives, every currently living human will be dead in 110 years or so, or sooner if we have a mass extinction event.
 
Well, as more people build immunity the r value decreases over time and the virus deaths slow eventually, and not everyone will die from the virus.

So...assuming there are no massive changes in science to extend lives, every currently living human will be dead in 110 years or so, or sooner if we have a mass extinction event.

You did not answer the question.
 
Uh, I think you're missing the point here. Yes, people die every year. But not due to some virus that our IMPOTUS shrugged off.

If somebody else was at the top i'm sure they would have done some things better, and they would have made some of their own mistakes, but to think we'd be in any better shape is hard to believe when i'm watching the most of world get caught with their pants down. People are looking back now with the advantage of hindsight when they examine the head honcho, and then ignoring the mistakes made by people on their side of the political isle who were encouraging people to get out and join them in the streets with one lady or were encouraged to live their life as normal by another guy, when this whole thing was starting to ramp up. Why don't I see the same networks bashing the head honcho now, not do the same with the two I mention here? If you don't know what i'm referring to I could give you a few very specific examples. So I think we'd be right about where we are even if somebody else was running the country....to suggest otherwise seems impossible to believe to me.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: OzzyLvr
Get ready for a numbers spike in NYC deaths...


https://gothamist.com/news/surge-nu...ls-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths


If you die at home from the coronavirus, there’s a good chance you won’t be included in the official death toll, because of a discrepancy in New York City’s reporting process.

The problem means the city’s official death count is likely far lower than the real toll taken by the virus, according to public health officials.

It also means that victims without access to testing are not being counted, and even epidemiologists are left without a full understanding of the pandemic.

As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That’s an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday.

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...S&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates

Over the last two weeks, the city's fire officials said more than 2,192 New York City residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year.

As of Tuesday afternoon, a total of 3,555 people were confirmed to have died from from the virus in the five boroughs.
 
Interesting analysis here, discussing a lot of the common talking points we’ve gone over. It’s a long ass Twitter thread.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247727105867210756.html

Particularly of interest...

“4. The economic damage we’re causing with COVID-containment lockdowns is a cure worse than the disease, and will lead to a lot of human suffering. So we should end the lockdowns soon.”
I’m sympathetic to this argument, in part because a lot of people freak out if you even mention the economic cost. This isn’t about dollar worship or stock prices—a lot of conservatives are genuinely worried about the anxiety, stress, and death that comes with a severe recession.
That said, one big problem with this argument is that it overstates how much of the “lockdown” has come from policymakers.
The Ohio governor closed restaurants at 9pm on March 15. Here’s the foot traffic data from OpenTable for Ohio, March 15 through March 5 (compared to the same days in 2019). This is not business as usual:
EVDSrkYXgAE0Y3_.jpg


On March 17, Bloomberg ran an article about the UK’s approach to herd immunity, making it seem as if London was operating normally.
But that same OpenTable data suggested restaurant traffic was down on March 17 by 89 percent, and had been down substantially the weeks prior. Again, this was *before* the UK government closed restaurants and bars.
Some have pointed to Sweden’s laissez-faire approach to the virus as a model to emulate. Set to the side whether that’s accurate (it’s incomplete at best), Swedish economic forecasts are grim.
The most recent estimate I’ve seen from Swedbank is a 4 percent 2020 contraction. Goldman’s late March estimate for the US was a 3.8 percent contraction (they’ve since further adjusted down to 6.2 percent for the US).
In other words, a lot of the social distancing appears organic, and independent of the policy response. That doesn’t mean good policy can’t help (or bad policy hurt), but the idea that our economy just hums along absent lockdown orders from the president and various governors...
...is implausible. It turns out that people get freaked out about catching a deadly disease and adjust their behavior accordingly.
 
And for anyone interested in the OpenTable data

https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry

This data shows year-over-year seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year. For example, we’d compare Tuesday of week 11 in 2020 to Tuesday of week 11 in 2019. Only states or cities with 50+ restaurants in the sample are included. All such restaurants on the OpenTable network in either period are included.

Basically it shows that starting March 9th in general across the US people stopped going out by 14%, by March 14th 42%, March 16th 56%, 84% on the 17th, 91% on the 18th, 98% on the 19th.

NYC ordered restaurants closed to dine-in on March 15th, but they were already down 64% YOY on March 14th.

This is before orders were given and shows that the economic downturn in the restaurant industry is more attributable to people deciding to stay home instead of governments forcing businesses closed.
 
:rolleyes:

Yeah the people who watch MSNBC and CNN.

The "people changed their behavior" line is just totally disingenuous. See Florida beaches. See Nashville. Etc etc etc.
 
:rolleyes:

Yeah the people who watch MSNBC and CNN.

The "people changed their behavior" line is just totally disingenuous. See Florida beaches. See Nashville. Etc etc etc.

We can always find outliers, look at the OpenTable data, unless you think there’s a conspiracy for them to manipulate the data...even Nashville showed the same behaviors with 21% down by 3/11.
 
We can always find outliers, look at the OpenTable data, unless you think there’s a conspiracy for them to manipulate the data...even Nashville showed the same behaviors with 21% down by 3/11.

Is the 79% who were still going out the outlier or the 21% who was scared by the media?
 
Is the 79% who were still going out the outlier or the 21% who was scared by the media?

Nashville closed restaurants 3/20, they were down 97% on 3/17. I guess 97% were scared by the media then...so you’ve changed your “position” to saying the media ruined the restaurants instead of the “lockdowns”?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT