A Thing Or Two About Horseracing

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I told kong a week ago that I'd do a post about horseracing, so here goes.

I think there are all types of horseracing "fans." There's the once-a-year, Kentucky Derby type fan that shows up at a racetrack with some ridiculous hat and is there to have fun, drinks his or her's favorite beverage, and all in all, have a fun time, generally lose a few bucks. But, fun was the objective of the day.

Other types are the Triple Crown, Breeder's Cup, and big day type fans. They follow horses from May thru June and then don't think about them again until maybe November when the Breeder's Cup arrives. Over the course of those few days, maybe they make a buck or two but all in all, it's about having fun doing a different social activity.

Then there's the weekend bettor. They work all week, go to the track to blow off some steam, and generally lose money consistently at the track. It's kind of like a hobby that they may enjoy, and like most hobbies it costs money.

Next, we move to the horseplayer who may visit the racetrack or simulcast outlet 3-4 times a week. They know more than the occasional racegoer, but not much more.

Once in a while they get lucky and make some pocket change. They win and they don't know why, and they lose and they don't know why. But, they enjoy the game and make up a percentage of every racetrack/simulcast facility.

Then you have the guys who play regularly. They know the trainers, the jockeys, and some of the horses, but overall 99% of them don't understand the game. They think the best horse wins. That may be true in the Handicap and Stakes races, but day in and day out, the favorite will only win 36% of the time. So 64% of the time, the public is clueless.

Many are really smart guys, good with numbers, they just don't know what those numbers mean. They spew a bunch of numbers that don't mean shit.
Typically, they are in a bad mood as if they have to be there.

There will be a pocket of really serious handicappers. Among those types, about 5% actually win. They wager a lot more than the other bettors, they hit big and they lose big. Most of their money comes through a rebate shop that returns a portion of their wagers.

They're not opposed to making really large plays on chalk. To them, a $ 4.00 winner doubles their money. These are the guys who bet $ 100,000.00 to show on an 8/5 horse. Problem is, they've never done the math and don't realize how good you have to be to reap a real profit. The serious guys will shovel $ 1 million a year or more through the windows.

I don't fit in any of these named categories. Over 50 years I've done my own research, and developed my own methodology, and the game has been beatable for decades. And I'm not talking chump change.

I developed a very sophisticated operation, one that took years to build. If this thread gains any traction, I will actually elaborate on how my overall game advanced, but I mostly am interested in helping fellow horseplayers.

Now that I retired about 10 years ago, I have throttled my game down significantly. I used betting horses as a source of income. It was a vehicle. It can be an extremely challenging sport to try to beat if someone doesn't have a full understanding of what the important factors are in picking the winning horse AT A PRICE.

I know there are a handful of guys who post on here who like to gamble on horses, so I'll see if there are things that I suggest to them that can help them elevate their game. If someone seems to be a problem gambler, any suggestions I give will be minimal. They are a special breed.

I'm not here to pick horses or tell you a horse to bet on or anything of that nature. I'm not selling anything. You certainly don't have to believe anything I say either. I'm probably open to answering almost any type of question short of naming a trainer that might be perceived as negative.

Last thing. For over 50 years, I've had a core belief about horseracing, and a similar concept was tweeted by Elon a few days ago. I don't know if it came from the movie The Matrix, or if it's something Musk just said, but I agree wholeheartedly. It goes like this:

What would you do if: The only way to escape the Matrix is to unlearn everything that you have been taught and rebuild your entire belief system on critical thought and analysis?

That say's it all.

 

[Redmich]

Get to the track early and scope out the horses

Identify the ones that take a huge dump within an hour of post and lean heavily on them

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Get to the track early and scope out the horses

Identify the ones that take a huge dump within an hour of post and lean heavily on them

What if the horse takes a dump 90 minutes before the post? What does that do to your wager?

 

[dpnavy]

I've been going for yrs and enjoy it immensely as a 75 yr old. Since I'm in Hastings, I go to Fonner Park and enjoy the track, people watching and the horses! I remember Dr John Yost, who practiced in Hastings and knew several horse owners and trainers! He used to say, "you got to know when they are running their horses to win" I'm the smaller better that takes $ 80 to $100 to lose and don't feel bad about it!

I've fingered through the book several times by Andrew Beyer, "Picking winners" Question is, How do I know if they are really wanting to win, and it it Win tickets only? I know to use any advice, I would have to pick up my knowledge of horse playing and what bets to use at the track! Thank you!

 

[king_kong_]

I love gambling in all forms (from stock market to dice in the corner). I am a (responsible) degenerate. I am not good at gambling and would never claim to be

my two best sports are pro football and major league baseball, but I will make a few big plays in college football and basketball when the spots present themselves (TCU +8, Tulane +2)

I have a few trends and "rules" I like to follow & bet regardless of my personal feelings. here are a couple:

- I always always always take the points when NFL teams are 10+ point underdogs
- home field advantage in the NFL is a myth. since 2020, road underdogs are 40 games above .500 against the spread
- since leaving the metrodome, the vikings have gone OVER in more than 60% of their home games

- any time public money exceeds 80% on a side, I hammer the other (my way to pretend to be a sharp) no matter what I think about what's going to happen

in baseball, I usually play the chalk on the run line all season long (boring but effective)

oh, I also bet every golf tournament

I'm a casual horse racing fan & play the big race days but definitely more of a drunkard throwing darts than a systematic player

 

[mgbreis]

I know zero about horses or horse racing, but I work for a family that used to have a thoroughbred farm in Lexington. They bred a Breeders' Cup champ and I got to spend some time around that area. Crazy money in that industry. I've never seen an operation so perfectly suited to losing money for tax purposes! I don't gamble and lose all of my money on old cars.

 

[Dr_Alan_Grant]

Gotta taste the urine for PED.... Is it necessary, NO. But its sterile, and I like the taste.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I know zero about horses or horse racing, but I work for a family that used to have a thoroughbred farm in Lexington. They bred a Breeders' Cup champ and I got to spend some time around that area. Crazy money in that industry. I've never seen an operation so perfectly suited to losing money for tax purposes! I don't gamble and lose all of my money on old cars.

They say owning horses is the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small fortune.

I've never had any interest in owning horses. Those things eat every day, and we've all heard them say your friend can eat like a horse. Plus you have to pay a trainer, medicate them, float their teeth, trim their hooves, hire exercise riders, etc etc etc.

But, for those that do, like you say it's a great write-off.

Never had a fetish with old cars, but man, do I know some guys who do! If you like to fix them up it's just a labor of love.

In 1972 I bought a '69 Dodge Charger 440 Magnum for $ 1,500.00. Got about 9 mpg when gas was skyrocketing to a buck a gallon.

In about '75 I sold it to a neighbor cause I couldn't get the damn thing running. Sold it for $ 600.00. About 30 minutes later he fires it up and goes roaring down the street. LOL

As long as you enjoy it and it doesn't affect your family finances, I say go have some fun man!

Horseracing is not for everyone. I totally get it.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Gotta taste the urine for PED.... Is it necessary, NO. But its sterile, and I like the taste.

To each his own! I know many times I've said this or that drink tastes like horse piss, but I've never had a swig, and don't plan to give it a taste anytime soon.

People do have the belief that urine is just a waste product, when in fact, as you say, it is sterile. The USA is one of the few countries that doesn't have a % of the citizenry that drinks their own urine.

With horses, they do have a test barn where the top 5 finishers are drug tested. I don't want to be the guy who follows them around in the barn with the bucket and a long handle waiting for the horse to relieve themselves.

Horseracing is a game of drugs, equipment, and intent. The plain and simple.

 

[dand84]

I don’t gamble, no interest. But my dad worked at both the horse track and dog track where I grew up. His job (a group of guys) was to calculate all the numbers from the odds during the race itself. Each and every race. This was before computers.

He could do the math on columns and rows of numbers just by sight. His best friend was the guy that checked the whole groups’ work. He could do the math even faster 🤣

When my dad did bet, he rarely lost. Never asked him about it though.

 

[LouisK]

I told kong a week ago that I'd do a post about horseracing, so here goes.

I think there are all types of horseracing "fans." There's the once-a-year, Kentucky Derby type fan that shows up at a racetrack with some ridiculous hat and is there to have fun, drinks his or her's favorite beverage, and all in all, have a fun time, generally lose a few bucks. But, fun was the objective of the day.

Other types are the Triple Crown, Breeder's Cup, and big day type fans. They follow horses from May thru June and then don't think about them again until maybe November when the Breeder's Cup arrives. Over the course of those few days, maybe they make a buck or two but all in all, it's about having fun doing a different social activity.

Then there's the weekend bettor. They work all week, go to the track to blow off some steam, and generally lose money consistently at the track. It's kind of like a hobby that they may enjoy, and like most hobbies it costs money.

Next, we move to the horseplayer who may visit the racetrack or simulcast outlet 3-4 times a week. They know more than the occasional racegoer, but not much more.

Once in a while they get lucky and make some pocket change. They win and they don't know why, and they lose and they don't know why. But, they enjoy the game and make up a percentage of every racetrack/simulcast facility.

Then you have the guys who play regularly. They know the trainers, the jockeys, and some of the horses, but overall 99% of them don't understand the game. They think the best horse wins. That may be true in the Handicap and Stakes races, but day in and day out, the favorite will only win 36% of the time. So 64% of the time, the public is clueless.

Many are really smart guys, good with numbers, they just don't know what those numbers mean. They spew a bunch of numbers that don't mean shit.
Typically, they are in a bad mood as if they have to be there.

There will be a pocket of really serious handicappers. Among those types, about 5% actually win. They wager a lot more than the other bettors, they hit big and they lose big. Most of their money comes through a rebate shop that returns a portion of their wagers.

They're not opposed to making really large plays on chalk. To them, a $ 4.00 winner doubles their money. These are the guys who bet $ 100,000.00 to show on an 8/5 horse. Problem is, they've never done the math and don't realize how good you have to be to reap a real profit. The serious guys will shovel $ 1 million a year or more through the windows.

I don't fit in any of these named categories. Over 50 years I've done my own research, and developed my own methodology, and the game has been beatable for decades. And I'm not talking chump change.

I developed a very sophisticated operation, one that took years to build. If this thread gains any traction, I will actually elaborate on how my overall game advanced, but I mostly am interested in helping fellow horseplayers.

Now that I retired about 10 years ago, I have throttled my game down significantly. I used betting horses as a source of income. It was a vehicle. It can be an extremely challenging sport to try to beat if someone doesn't have a full understanding of what the important factors are in picking the winning horse AT A PRICE.

I know there are a handful of guys who post on here who like to gamble on horses, so I'll see if there are things that I suggest to them that can help them elevate their game. If someone seems to be a problem gambler, any suggestions I give will be minimal. They are a special breed.

I'm not here to pick horses or tell you a horse to bet on or anything of that nature. I'm not selling anything. You certainly don't have to believe anything I say either. I'm probably open to answering almost any type of question short of naming a trainer that might be perceived as negative.

Last thing. For over 50 years, I've had a core belief about horseracing, and a similar concept was tweeted by Elon a few days ago. I don't know if it came from the movie The Matrix, or if it's something Musk just said, but I agree wholeheartedly. It goes like this:

What would you do if: The only way to escape the Matrix is to unlearn everything that you have been taught and rebuild your entire belief system on critical thought and analysis?

That say's it all.

Interesting thread. What are your main handicapping methods? I see that you wrote about intent. How do you identify intent? I know there is a lot of thought of horses going shorter or longer distances than their current race distance because the trainer wanted to prime them for this race but not sure how to identify if changes in distance are for intent or other reasons. Do you use any trainer stats for the particular race that day to help to identify intent? Any other insights? Thanks

 

[schuele]

The only advice I can offer about horse racing is that if you are ever in Hong Kong, the Wednesday night races are a must-go.

It costs a fortune to live in Hong Kong, so the horse track is basically a place where rich people can sit up in the club seats, while the general public can get in for about $1 and have a great big party down on the track level.

Hopefully COVID didn't kill it off. Whenever I went, the track-level party was a great time.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I've been going for yrs and enjoy it immensely as a 75 yr old. Since I'm in Hastings, I go to Fonner Park and enjoy the track, people watching and the horses! I remember Dr John Yost, who practiced in Hastings and knew several horse owners and trainers! He used to say, "you got to know when they are running their horses to win" I'm the smaller better that takes $ 80 to $100 to lose and don't feel bad about it!

I've fingered through the book several times by Andrew Beyer, "Picking winners" Question is, How do I know if they are really wanting to win, and it it Win tickets only? I know to use any advice, I would have to pick up my knowledge of horse playing and what bets to use at the track! Thank you!

First of all, awesome post dp!! 75 years young and still probably sharp as hell, some of that could be contributed to working with all those numbers and keeping your mind sharp.

Dr. Yost spoke a lot of truth in what he said. That's why INTENT is critical to winning at this sport. If people knew how many times a horse was in a race just to do a real-time workout, they could save themselves a lot of money.

If wagering $ 80 to $ 100 is where you're comfortable and it doesn't affect your daily finances, I say at least you KNOW what you're comfortable with.
A lot of gamblers have little control over how they manage their bankroll, next thing you know they're into the rent money.

I read Beyer's book years ago, it was a fun read. He made his bones by inventing the "Beyer's Speed Rating" and it is widely accepted by a lot of data companies that provide Past Performances. He has made a fortune, but for years the Beyer has employed a lot of $ 10.00 an hour people to chart the races, and you get what you pay for.

Beyer's, frankly, has been outdated for many years. Those figures don't take into account weight, wind, and ground loss. Those figures are heavily weighted in favor of horses who go out to an easy lead and run fast times.

In those cheaper races at Fonner, many times those horses chasing a runaway winner just kind of shut it down and so you don't get a real feeling for how much effort they actually exerted.

The GOOD thing about Fonner is what is called Runup Distances. Those are all set at 65'. In other words, you can compare one $ 5,000.00 claiming race today with the same $ 5,000.00 horse later in the day.

Around the country Runup Distance varies GREATLY. A Runup Distance means the horses actually run a designated distance BEFORE they even start to clock the race.

For example, I'll use 6 furlongs as an example. At Columbus, the Runup Distance is 16'. At both Santa Anita and Churchill Downs it is 200'.
Yes, 200 feet.

Then you look at the length of the stretch. Fonner is 700'. Santa Anita is 990'. Oaklawn is 1,155'. Gulfstream Park is 898'. Churchill Downs in 1,234'.

So if you're playing the national circuit, it's important to know if you're comparing apples to apples. A lot of handicappers don't realize this. Can you compare $ 10,000.00 claimers at Fonner Park that runs the 6F in 1:13.0 to a horse at Churchill Downs that runs that same 6F distance in 1:13.0?

They're running two different races even though the Daily Racing Form says they are both 6 Furlong races. In other words, that Churchill Downs horse is running 135 feet farther. It stands to reason, in the cheaper animals, the horse running farther in a sprint is having to run harder just to run just as fast.

It's like taking Malachai Coleman at 10.44 in the 100 meters and running him against Brice Turner at 10.25 and giving Malachai a 200' runup to the start and Turner a 65' runup to the start. In that scenario, Turner beats him a lot easier than the .19 difference would suggest. Why?

Because at 60 meters all runners begin to decelerate, Malachai would begin his deceleration earlier than Turner. In other words, the result would say 100 meters, yet each runner is running a different distance. Same with horses.

As far as betting to WIN. I'm an advocate of doing what you've had the most success with. Do you do well with Maidens? How about 4-furlong races? How about 6-furlong races? Do you have more success betting claimers or allowance or stakes horses?

For the heck of it, for a week or so, KEEP TRACK of your wagers and a short note of what type of race it was. You may find you are really good at just one or two types of races and the other races are what eat your bankroll.

You have to remember dp, Fonner likely has a lot of $ 2.00 bettors. Since you would be betting on the average $ 8 -$ 10 per race, you can do things a little bit differently. I would think at that track exactas might be the way to go, something easy like a 3-horse exacta box. I wouldn't use 2 chalk horses because you're talking tiny exacta payoffs.

Box the horse YOU like along with a horse who might be a mid runner and a horse with some good odds and EARLY SPEED from the 8-9-10 hole because early speed from outside can be deadly on a 5/8 mile track.

I'm sure I didn't give you a lot of help here, but I have other posts I would like to get to. Thanks for the post, and as this thing slows down, I'll come back and take another look for you.

75 years old and still putting through the betting windows!! I love it!!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

The only advice I can offer about horse racing is that if you are ever in Hong Kong, the Wednesday night races are a must-go.

It costs a fortune to live in Hong Kong, so the horse track is basically a place where rich people can sit up in the club seats, while the general public can get in for about $1 and have a great big party down on the track level.

Hopefully COVID didn't kill it off. Whenever I went, the track-level party was a great time.

I never wanted to do the Hong Kong thing but I know it's a huge industry. Huge crowds, large fields, big purses. By the time I had slowed down my handicapping Japan was just getting going. It probably would have been a great time there and the betting would have been fun once I did my research.
Thanks for the comment and suggestion.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

My wife had horses growing up in Colorado, her and her sister would literally ride em down the streets once and a while that many people reading this have been on in their cars....and now you'd never think they would have had horses on them 30 years ago.....she was part of an organization that opened rodeo's and other events by entertaining them with trick riding....really weird to look back at what she did and see her kicking ass on that horse as a 75lb little girl (12yrs old during her "prime")???, with this huge freaking horse under her. Mad props to her and everyone who climbs on top of one of those beasts and tells it what to do.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I don’t gamble, no interest. But my dad worked at both the horse track and dog track where I grew up. His job (a group of guys) was to calculate all the numbers from the odds during the race itself. Each and every race. This was before computers.

He could do the math on columns and rows of numbers just by sight. His best friend was the guy that checked the whole groups’ work. He could do the math even faster 🤣

When my dad did bet, he rarely lost. Never asked him about it though.

People tend to believe everybody loses playing horses or dogs, and that's just not true. Some guys, like your Dad and his group, obviously found a way to use the data to their advantage.

My son, and not jokingly, always says I have a "Beautiful Mind". Some guys just are blessed with an unexplainable ability to see things that others don't.

Congratulations on being exposed to the gaming world as a young man and not getting involved with it. I sense, had you shown an interest, your Dad had the ability to teach you things that very, very few people could comprehend.

A lot of people really don't know HOW they will react once they start to gamble. A problem gambler is a problem to people around him. I've seen studies and MRIs that show how certain parts of the brain just really fire up to a compulsive gambler compared to a "normal" person. It's ruined a lot of people's lives, marriages, and families' lives.

Thanks for the comment.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

My wife had horses growing up in Colorado, her and her sister would literally ride em down the streets once and a while that many people reading this have been on in their cars....and now you'd never think they would have had horses on them 30 years ago.....she was part of an organization that opened rodeo's and other events by entertaining them with trick riding....really weird to look back at what she did and see her kicking ass on that horse as a 75lb little girl (12yrs old during her "prime")???, with this huge freaking horse under her. Mad props to her and everyone who climbs on top of one of those beasts and tells it what to do.

Love it. I've been to rodeos and some of the things they do on horses are amazing. The really great ones just operate as one....the person and horse.

I've ridden, (casually) on the farm a long time ago, and I have a lot of respect for the strength of those animals, let alone those animals trained in specific ways to do things that aren't normal. They say you talk to the animal through your hands on the bridle and then help guide the horse with your legs. Of course, the type of riding your WIFE did was so well rehearsed it came naturally to both the rider and horse. Tricks are for kids.

Sweet story!
**edited**

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I love gambling in all forms (from stock market to dice in the corner). I am a (responsible) degenerate. I am not good at gambling and would never claim to be

my two best sports are pro football and major league baseball, but I will make a few big plays in college football and basketball when the spots present themselves (TCU +8, Tulane +2)

I have a few trends and "rules" I like to follow & bet regardless of my personal feelings. here are a couple:

- I always always always take the points when NFL teams are 10+ point underdogs
- home field advantage in the NFL is a myth. since 2020, road underdogs are 40 games above .500 against the spread
- since leaving the metrodome, the vikings have gone OVER in more than 60% of their home games

- any time public money exceeds 80% on a side, I hammer the other (my way to pretend to be a sharp) no matter what I think about what's going to happen

in baseball, I usually play the chalk on the run line all season long (boring but effective)

oh, I also bet every golf tournament

I'm a casual horse racing fan & play the big race days but definitely more of a drunkard throwing darts than a systematic player

Don't think I've forgotten about you, but there's a lot of raw meat here to digest. LOL Once I am able to give some preliminary answers to some of the other guys, I'll give you some FWIW comments kong.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Gotta taste the urine for PED.... Is it necessary, NO. But its sterile, and I like the taste.

I'd like to give you a "like" but I just can't. LOL

 

[SuperBigFan]

I love gambling in all forms (from stock market to dice in the corner). I am a (responsible) degenerate. I am not good at gambling and would never claim to be

my two best sports are pro football and major league baseball, but I will make a few big plays in college football and basketball when the spots present themselves (TCU +8, Tulane +2)

I have a few trends and "rules" I like to follow & bet regardless of my personal feelings. here are a couple:

- I always always always take the points when NFL teams are 10+ point underdogs
- home field advantage in the NFL is a myth. since 2020, road underdogs are 40 games above .500 against the spread
- since leaving the metrodome, the vikings have gone OVER in more than 60% of their home games

- any time public money exceeds 80% on a side, I hammer the other (my way to pretend to be a sharp) no matter what I think about what's going to happen

in baseball, I usually play the chalk on the run line all season long (boring but effective)

oh, I also bet every golf tournament

I'm a casual horse racing fan & play the big race days but definitely more of a drunkard throwing darts than a systematic player

Totally agree with big NFL lines.

A few years back me and a buddy found what we called a "glitch".,. we always bet against Chicago State in CBB, didn't matter the line or why they were playing. They were just so freaking bad. It appears this year that glitch is no longer working.

The other one I like are halftime lines when the better team (favored team) is up and now getting points for the second half.

In the end none of it matters because I am still putting my bookie's kids through private school, but hey, it is fun!

 

[king_kong_]

My wife had horses growing up in Colorado, her and her sister would literally ride em down the streets once and a while that many people reading this have been on in their cars....and now you'd never think they would have had horses on them 30 years ago.....she was part of an organization that opened rodeo's and other events by entertaining them with trick riding....really weird to look back at what she did and see her kicking ass on that horse as a 75lb little girl (12yrs old during her "prime")???, with this huge freaking horse under her. Mad props to her and everyone who climbs on top of one of those beasts and tells it what to do.

we live in northern CO (wife is from western MT), and it's nice to see some of that history still very much alive and well here in the state

I pass people working on horseback weekly during the summer months - right off highway 257!

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Love it. I've been to rodeos and some of the things they do on horses are amazing. The really great ones just operate as one....the person and horse.

I've ridden, (casually) on the farm a long time ago, and I have a lot of respect for the strength of those animals, let alone those animals trained in specific ways to do things that aren't normal. They say you talk to the animal through your hands on the bridle and then help guide the horse with your legs. Of course, the type of riding your sis-in-law did was so well rehearsed it came naturally to both the rider and horse. Tricks are for kids.

Sweet story!

I always enjoy your incredibly long and windy posts!!! This coming from somebody with the attention span of a....wait, what were we talking about again?

...and that wasn't my sister in law, that would be weird cause I'm sleeping with the person in my story Haha.




...."Wife" ...but I knew what you meant.

 

[mgbreis]

Do any of you remember the incident in Nebraska where multiple people were killed in a dispute over race horses? I knew the attorney involved that ended it by running over the shooter with a truck after his wife was shot in the head. His name was Dick Mahlin and he was one different guy.

(found the story) https://apnews.com/article/da688edc428b85557a05b973657a31dd

 

[king_kong_]

Do any of you remember the incident in Nebraska where multiple people were killed in a dispute over race horses? I knew the attorney involved that ended it by running over the shooter with a truck after his wife was shot in the head. His name was Dick Mahlin and he was one different guy.

(found the story) https://apnews.com/article/da688edc428b85557a05b973657a31dd

insane story, wow

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Interesting thread. What are your main handicapping methods? I see that you wrote about intent. How do you identify intent? I know there is a lot of thought of horses going shorter or longer distances than their current race distance because the trainer wanted to prime them for this race but not sure how to identify if changes in distance are for intent or other reasons. Do you use any trainer stats for the particular race that day to help to identify intent? Any other insights? Thanks

Louis, this I can't really answer in one post, so I'll probably have to break it down by the different comments you made.

As far as trainer stats, for about 20 years I did 300 trainers from around the country. That's a bunch, but as we go a little farther I will explain how I got to that amount, was able to track them daily, and then capitalize on what they did really well, and I mean REALLY well. For many years I was a one-man operation, then I became a 3 man operation. I started way before computers and computers allowed me to do more work in one day than I used to be able to do in a month.

There are a lot of factors here when you're talking about moving from a sprint to a route or vice versa. Some guys are really good at it, but a lot of others aren't worth a shit at it. It all depends on the trainer. Some guys work out their horses long (5f +) and others work them out short (3f). The vast majority of the time it means nothing. To some trainers it means everything.

As odd as it sounds, I have a Dream Team of trainers. They are on my team, they just don't know it. Over 50 years I have compiled the very best of the best there is in the entire industry. I play tracks from throughout the country. When I devised my methodology I had a lot of areas that I wanted to address. Some of those were:

Have a stable that has elite trainers from all over the country that run 363 days a year, save Easter and Christmas Day when all tracks are down. In other words, I didn't want to just make money in Jan and Febr and then have a dry spell until Sept or October. I had a year-round schedule of great trainers to play.

The deciding factor is HOW GOOD are they. Do they win at large odds? Do they have a large enough stable to maintain my interest? How many specialties do they employ? I play high-percentage guys who pay a lot. I have what you would call "the book" on them. I had progressed to the point where I KNEW the type of race they would put the horse in their next out. It was almost like I was training the horse. I know it sounds odd, but that is what it amounts to.

As I said, I would have to put your questions in multiple posts because if I'm trying to give you a real picture of how I do things, it takes a lot of words. I'm only giving you partial answers, and I will elaborate in another post, but let me tell you where I believe, in fact, I KNOW Intent is everything.

All trainers have what is called an "indicator." It's no different than in baseball. You have a 3rd base coach flashing signs to the hitter, and let's say he touches his chin for the indicator. He touches his leg, his belt, and his hat, and runs his arm across the other arm. None of that means anything.

So the pitcher throws a pitch and its a ball. The runner steps out of the box look at the third base coach and the coach give his signs. He touches his hat, his arm, his belt, etc and then he touches his chin. SOMETHING IS NOW ON.

It's the same way with horse trainers, they invariably have indicators. If I've done comprehensive research on that trainer, I am now in a position to know what he will do next. Some of these guys are doing the same exact angle now as they were in the 90s. They become predictable. You will get a horse that is ready to run his eyeballs out. And the odds will be large.

This is getting really long. I'm gonna end it and then I'll pick it up in another post.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I always enjoy your incredibly long and windy posts!!! This coming from somebody with the attention span of a....wait, what were we talking about again?

...and that wasn't my sister in law, that would be weird cause I'm sleeping with the person in my story Haha.




...."Wife" ...but I knew what you meant.

You threw me when you said My wife and then her sister. Misread it to think you were talking about your wife's sister.

I'm sad to report I actually know 2 dudes who slept with their sister-in-law.

My son has always said I cannot say in 3 sentences what I'd rather say in 3 paragraphs. LOL But, it is true.

I should have Huskers Online just have a default line on my posts that begins with: THIS WILL BE LONG.

Thanks.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Do any of you remember the incident in Nebraska where multiple people were killed in a dispute over race horses? I knew the attorney involved that ended it by running over the shooter with a truck after his wife was shot in the head. His name was Dick Mahlin and he was one different guy.

(found the story) https://apnews.com/article/da688edc428b85557a05b973657a31dd

I remember it well.

 

[Sinomatic]

The only horsebetting I ever done was when a guy who knew my dad at Goodyear in Lincoln gave him a tip about two horses. Saying these two are going to take 1st and 2nd place but he didn't know which would do which.

My dad and I are NOT gamblers. But, my dad was encouraged to bet this one. So we both box those two horses in with me betting one way and my dad boxing them in the opposite.

Those two horses came in first and second like the guy said with my dad getting it absolutely correct and me boxing them opposite.

It was fun to win but the betting wasn't my cup of tea. I'd rather invest in a business or the market. I like to make my side money on real estate.

Interesting thread though.

 

[tdierberger]

Gotta taste the urine for PED.... Is it necessary, NO. But its sterile, and I like the taste.

Any horse with Bobcat Goldthwait in the saddle is also a near certainty…

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

The only horsebetting I ever done was when a guy who knew my dad at Goodyear in Lincoln gave him a tip about two horses. Saying these two are going to take 1st and 2nd place but he didn't know which would do which.

My dad and I are NOT gamblers. But, my dad was encouraged to bet this one. So we both box those two horses in with me betting one way and my dad boxing them in the opposite.

Those two horses came in first and second like the guy said with my dad getting it absolutely correct and me boxing them opposite.

It was fun to win but the betting wasn't my cup of tea. I'd rather invest in a business or the market. I like to make my side money on real estate.

Interesting thread though.

Good story. I totally agree with investing in something you really have an interest in a cause that's what makes the world go 'round.

I remember my first bet about 50+ years ago. A filly called Heather Honey.
I bet $ 2 across the board and got back $ 14.40 and thought I had hit the jackpot. LOL

Turns out it was the first of many thousands of wagers that would follow.

Here's to hoping you continue to prosper at the market and real estate.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Interesting thread. What are your main handicapping methods? I see that you wrote about intent. How do you identify intent? I know there is a lot of thought of horses going shorter or longer distances than their current race distance because the trainer wanted to prime them for this race but not sure how to identify if changes in distance are for intent or other reasons. Do you use any trainer stats for the particular race that day to help to identify intent? Any other insights? Thanks

Louis. There are a lot of trainers around the country that are tremendous going sprint to route or route to sprint. The really good ones have different ways of capitalizing when they are "going."

Sometimes it's a couple of sprints and then a route, or vice versa. Some involve a track switch or maybe a surface switch. Sometimes they go with a particular jockey. Some run a sprint or two at say, $ 10,000 and then run the route for $ 12,500 or $ 15,000.

The only way to really know their intent is by charting all their horses that fit that category and then researching them.

When I started for the first several years I was doing everything by myself, mostly because I love to do research. Then about 1997, my son-in-law was writing code and I paid him to build me a relational database.

At the same time, I had my son who was in charge of reviewing all the Result Charts from around the country. I told them, this is what I want and they did a lot of the input and charting.

I set all the parameters and the thing just kept growing. Then I started to refine it even further by incorporating all $ 40.00 and higher payoffs part of the data. We were able to sort everything and before long a lot of things became clear.

After that portion, I began to sort out different types of races in order to refine what we were capturing. That's when I started to log the sprint-sprint-route, first-time starters, 2nd-time starters, surface changes, track switches, etc etc etc. It became clear through the data that some of these trainers had specific things they did in order to establish intent. Some of these guys are pretty amazing at what they do. And they don't have to be high % trainers.

Just like some horses are "distance specialists", so are some trainers. So, to put it mildly, it's not a surprise when they pop a horse that pays $ 40 -$100 to win. They have bills to pay, and they have devised a method of doing just that. It's not cheating, it's more pointing for a specific race and having their horse ready to roll.

It can be done nowadays with a computer, but it takes a LONG time to accumulate enough data so you can take advantage of your work. Most guys don't have the time or desire, or won't put in the time or the work, and that's their choice.

It's not for everybody, but IF you enjoy doing that type of mental exercise there's no reason you can't do it too. You just have to enjoy what you're doing.

I used what I call the 4-leaf clover method. For example, let's say you mow your lawn, and somewhere on that lawn is a 4-leaf clover, if you're not looking for it, you'll never see it. I was always the guy mowing the lawn and looking for that 4-leaf clover In other words, I knew there was a 4-leaf clover there, I just had to find it. if you're not looking for it, you won't ever see it.

A long time ago I got to the point where I was looking for certain things, when I found it, I researched it, confirmed it, tested it, and then started to bet it. It was a process.

Louis, I'll probably do one more post to add a bit to what I've posted.

 

[skerbball]

Good thread! What do you think the future of racing in Nebraska holds? Obviously with the addition of the casino gaming at the tracks you would hope that would increase purses. I see Fonner’s temporary casino opened this past week. Columbus is building a 1 mile track (first one in the state since Aksarben) which should help bring in better horses/trainers. Lincoln will have a 7/8 mile track. Hoping to get the full circuit back in Nebraska and improve the state bred program here too!

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

I told kong a week ago that I'd do a post about horseracing, so here goes.

I think there are all types of horseracing "fans." There's the once-a-year, Kentucky Derby type fan that shows up at a racetrack with some ridiculous hat and is there to have fun, drinks his or her's favorite beverage, and all in all, have a fun time, generally lose a few bucks. But, fun was the objective of the day.

Other types are the Triple Crown, Breeder's Cup, and big day type fans. They follow horses from May thru June and then don't think about them again until maybe November when the Breeder's Cup arrives. Over the course of those few days, maybe they make a buck or two but all in all, it's about having fun doing a different social activity.

Then there's the weekend bettor. They work all week, go to the track to blow off some steam, and generally lose money consistently at the track. It's kind of like a hobby that they may enjoy, and like most hobbies it costs money.

Next, we move to the horseplayer who may visit the racetrack or simulcast outlet 3-4 times a week. They know more than the occasional racegoer, but not much more.

Once in a while they get lucky and make some pocket change. They win and they don't know why, and they lose and they don't know why. But, they enjoy the game and make up a percentage of every racetrack/simulcast facility.

Then you have the guys who play regularly. They know the trainers, the jockeys, and some of the horses, but overall 99% of them don't understand the game. They think the best horse wins. That may be true in the Handicap and Stakes races, but day in and day out, the favorite will only win 36% of the time. So 64% of the time, the public is clueless.

Many are really smart guys, good with numbers, they just don't know what those numbers mean. They spew a bunch of numbers that don't mean shit.
Typically, they are in a bad mood as if they have to be there.

There will be a pocket of really serious handicappers. Among those types, about 5% actually win. They wager a lot more than the other bettors, they hit big and they lose big. Most of their money comes through a rebate shop that returns a portion of their wagers.

They're not opposed to making really large plays on chalk. To them, a $ 4.00 winner doubles their money. These are the guys who bet $ 100,000.00 to show on an 8/5 horse. Problem is, they've never done the math and don't realize how good you have to be to reap a real profit. The serious guys will shovel $ 1 million a year or more through the windows.

I don't fit in any of these named categories. Over 50 years I've done my own research, and developed my own methodology, and the game has been beatable for decades. And I'm not talking chump change.

I developed a very sophisticated operation, one that took years to build. If this thread gains any traction, I will actually elaborate on how my overall game advanced, but I mostly am interested in helping fellow horseplayers.

Now that I retired about 10 years ago, I have throttled my game down significantly. I used betting horses as a source of income. It was a vehicle. It can be an extremely challenging sport to try to beat if someone doesn't have a full understanding of what the important factors are in picking the winning horse AT A PRICE.

I know there are a handful of guys who post on here who like to gamble on horses, so I'll see if there are things that I suggest to them that can help them elevate their game. If someone seems to be a problem gambler, any suggestions I give will be minimal. They are a special breed.

I'm not here to pick horses or tell you a horse to bet on or anything of that nature. I'm not selling anything. You certainly don't have to believe anything I say either. I'm probably open to answering almost any type of question short of naming a trainer that might be perceived as negative.

Last thing. For over 50 years, I've had a core belief about horseracing, and a similar concept was tweeted by Elon a few days ago. I don't know if it came from the movie The Matrix, or if it's something Musk just said, but I agree wholeheartedly. It goes like this:

What would you do if: The only way to escape the Matrix is to unlearn everything that you have been taught and rebuild your entire belief system on critical thought and analysis?

That say's it all.

I actually think it might have been me that you told about starting a horse racing thread. I really wish I had the time to go all in on this discussion. Gonna be awhile before that though.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Interesting thread. What are your main handicapping methods? I see that you wrote about intent. How do you identify intent? I know there is a lot of thought of horses going shorter or longer distances than their current race distance because the trainer wanted to prime them for this race but not sure how to identify if changes in distance are for intent or other reasons. Do you use any trainer stats for the particular race that day to help to identify intent? Any other insights? Thanks

Louis, I'll add in this response on a slightly different topic, and then I need to scoot over to kong's response.

This will have to do with the Daily Racing Form. If you use those you are comparing the same information with maybe 1/2M or more people. It's like that many people looking at stock data and making decisions. Some look for Profit, others maybe like Dividends, and others look at cycles. It's no different with those people looking at the DRF.

These are some typical numbers in parentheses that are on the bottom of the horse's Past Performance. Let's say those numbers represent the last 2 years that a trainer had horses running at that type of race.

It might look something like this:

(Sprints 38 8% +.25) (31-60 days 24 6% +.01) (Dirt to Turf 7 14% + 1.05)

So, this trainer in Sprint races has won 8% of the time. This is my question.
What type of Sprint? There are SEVEN different Sprint:

4f, 4 1/2f, 5f, 5 1/2f, 6f, 6 1/2f, 7f.

If you take 38 races times .08 percent win, he won 3 races. But at what distance?

If you're able to do the research you may find he won 5 1/2 furlong races, three different times at 3 different tracks and they all happened in the 2nd out at each of those tracks. Okay? That's a pattern of intent.

So, in this hypothetical example, this trainer was 3-3 at 5 1/2f in the 2nd out at each track. In the other sprint races, he was actually 0 for 35. If today's race is 6f, it clearly shows this horse will not win. All those who are betting on this horse will lose their bet and then wonder why.

I like this quote: "all numbers can be counted, but not all numbers count".

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Good thread! What do you think the future of racing in Nebraska holds? Obviously with the addition of the casino gaming at the tracks you would hope that would increase purses. I see Fonner’s temporary casino opened this past week. Columbus is building a 1 mile track (first one in the state since Aksarben) which should help bring in better horses/trainers. Lincoln will have a 7/8 mile track. Hoping to get the full circuit back in Nebraska and improve the state bred program here too!

It would be nice if the casinos can provide some real money to the horsemen. In this state, with the low purse structure, it has to be really hard to make a good living in horseracing, especially when an owner has fixed costs like training fees, drugs, and medication, floating the teeth, trimming the hooves, the farrier, and other costs that can't be avoided.

I think it is very simple...some people are going to gamble. It always ticked me off that I or others had to cross the rivers just to play slots or cards. None of that money came back to Nebraska in the form of better purses or lower property taxes.

Getting Columbus to be a one-turn track could attract some better horses and maybe help them offer a really nice purses for some 6f sprint races.

I hope the whole thing works out because horse people work their asses off (I know, their choice) but at least they are doing a hard days work.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I actually think it might have been me that you told about starting a horse racing thread. I really wish I had the time to go all in on this discussion. Gonna be awhile before that though.

You could be right Pelini. Henceforth, I will now credit Pelini and kong for mentioning a horseracing thread.

I was hoping you would join the thread, because of all the guys on here, you are the one who mentions horses the most, other than yours truly.

I remember when I first started a year ago in September that you said you played Gio Ponte when I was at the Breeder's Cup and watching Zenyatta.

Take your time, and I hope you'll find the time to come back and go all in.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I love gambling in all forms (from stock market to dice in the corner). I am a (responsible) degenerate. I am not good at gambling and would never claim to be

my two best sports are pro football and major league baseball, but I will make a few big plays in college football and basketball when the spots present themselves (TCU +8, Tulane +2)

I have a few trends and "rules" I like to follow & bet regardless of my personal feelings. here are a couple:

- I always always always take the points when NFL teams are 10+ point underdogs
- home field advantage in the NFL is a myth. since 2020, road underdogs are 40 games above .500 against the spread
- since leaving the metrodome, the vikings have gone OVER in more than 60% of their home games

- any time public money exceeds 80% on a side, I hammer the other (my way to pretend to be a sharp) no matter what I think about what's going to happen

in baseball, I usually play the chalk on the run line all season long (boring but effective)

oh, I also bet every golf tournament

I'm a casual horse racing fan & play the big race days but definitely more of a drunkard throwing darts than a systematic player

Okay, now the kong response. You got me outta my element here. You say you're not good at gambling. I like that self-awareness. Many gamblers won't admit that.
I don't play the stock market because of High-Frequency Trading.

Do you know what your success rate is when you take the NFL 10+ point underdog? Is it a higher percentage when that underdog is at home or on the road? Do you keep records from year to year to see where your strongest point is? And then maybe eliminate your weakest point.

In the +40% category on road underdogs, is there any correlation between moving from an indoor to an outdoor facility? Does it take into account coming off a bye week?

What do you attribute the Vikings away from the Metrodome and hitting the OVERS?

On the public money 80% to one side, what percentage of the time do you guesstimate you win?

In baseball, boring and effective is alright especially if you add a few shekels to the bankroll. Is this one of your consistently better plays?

Golf, but no hockey?

As I said earlier, there's nothing wrong with the Big Day/Occasional bettor.

BTW, if you're gonna bet Breeder's Cup, take a peek at Charles Appleby with William Buick riding. In the Breeder's Cup, he's a 48% winner in 23 starts and 70% in the money, with a $ 4.29 ROI. For 2 years he's won 42% of his starts in 52 Turf races and 67% in the money riding all riders. If you use standard plays and don't deviate, you'll have a nice shot.

Running against the best in the world, the dude is a machine. Horses going off between 4/1 and 10/1 he is winning at 36% and $ 5.69 ROI. Those ROI's are a bit short for my taste, but they sometimes make for a helluva payoff in a Pick 3 when I single his horse(s).

If you continue to be a self-aware, responsible, degenerate gambler, maybe we can hook up in the future in a private chat and I'll throw you a bone to help you support your other betting interests. It may not be a BIG DAY, but maybe I'll show you what a real ROI feels like. LOL

 

[king_kong_]

Okay, now the kong response. You got me outta my element here. You say you're not good at gambling. I like that self-awareness. Many gamblers won't admit that.
I don't play the stock market because of High-Frequency Trading.

Do you know what your success rate is when you take the NFL 10+ point underdog? Is it a higher percentage when that underdog is at home or on the road? Do you keep records from year to year to see where your strongest point is? And then maybe eliminate your weakest point.

In the +40% category on road underdogs, is there any correlation between moving from an indoor to an outdoor facility? Does it take into account coming off a bye week?

What do you attribute the Vikings away from the Metrodome and hitting the OVERS?

On the public money 80% to one side, what percentage of the time do you guesstimate you win?

In baseball, boring and effective is alright especially if you add a few shekels to the bankroll. Is this one of your consistently better plays?

Golf, but no hockey?

As I said earlier, there's nothing wrong with the Big Day/Occasional bettor.

BTW, if you're gonna bet Breeder's Cup, take a peek at Charles Appleby with William Buick riding. In the Breeder's Cup he's a 48% winner in 23 starts and 70% in the money, with a $ 4.29 ROI. For 2 years he's winning 42% of his starts in 52 Turf races and 67% in the money riding all riders.

Running against the best in the world, the dude is a machine. Horses going off between 4/1 and 10/1 he is winning at 36% and $ 5.69 ROI. Those ROI's are a bit short for my taste, but they sometimes make for a helluva payoff in a Pick 3 when I single his horse(s).

If you continue to be a self-aware, responsible, degenerate gambler, maybe we can hook up in the future in a private chat and I'll throw you a bone to help you support your other betting interests. It may not be a BIG DAY, but maybe I'll show you what a real ROI feels like. LOL

you have no idea how much I love this stuff - and, frankly this board

I do my best to be self-aware in all facets, right down to how annoying I must be when posting ad nauseam about certain topics. it's never personal and I do my best to add levity.

as for your questions, here goes:

Do you know what your success rate is when you take the NFL 10+ point underdog? No

Is it a higher percentage when that underdog is at home or on the road? Don't know

Do you keep records from year to year to see where your strongest point is? No

And then maybe eliminate your weakest point. I can damn near guarantee the team I've lost the most money on over the last 4 years is our beloved Huskers

In the +40% category on road underdogs, is there any correlation between moving from an indoor to an outdoor facility? I don't know

Does it take into account coming off a bye week? No

What do you attribute the Vikings away from the Metrodome and hitting the OVERS? This one I actually have a thought, especially having been to both stadiums for both high- and low-leverage regular season games.

I honestly think the lighting (like going from night game to day game), the track, the space, the size, the relative quiet on the field (crowd in minn is great but the stadium is HUGE and just gobbles up the noise) play a factor

probably bigger factor frankly is the public's persistent doubt of Kirk Cousins & the Purple People Eaters moniker. Vikings are one of the least voluminous teams in the league as far as action is concerned (small fanbase, surprisingly under-the-radar even considering their relative success of late), so trends can stick a little longer. Dolphins are another team that covers at an abnormal rate over years at home (against the spread, not total), and Vegas has been slow to change due to lack of relative volume + public nature of their frequent opponents (Pats, Bills, Jets)

On the public money 80% to one side, what percentage of the time do you guesstimate you win? pure guess - maybe 55%?

In baseball, boring and effective is alright especially if you add a few shekels to the bankroll. Is this one of your consistently better plays? unquestionably yes. I build my football bankroll over the summer basically taking the Dodgers and Yankees -1.5 every single day. literally every single day.

Golf, but no hockey? ha! yes. I bet playoff hockey but just don't follow it all that closely. growing up in NE I never was a real puck-head, although NHL games live are second to none in terms of fan experience. Multiply by 10 for playoff games.

In my best golf season I hit 8 winners out of 32 tourneys - lowest odds were 8/1, highest 34/1. Needless to say, a very fun season!

I also bet a lot of super high odds in-game. for instance, I took the Vikings 20/1 to beat the Colts at halftime down 33-0. that one hit, most of them do not

for context, I'm a sales guy so paperwork/tracking/organization is far from my strong suit. I would do myself a million favors by keeping records, but I just can't bring myselft to do it. probably because I wouldn't like what they told me

 

[viewfromthebooth]

Frequent Fonner visitor. Not real good at it, so don't get carried away. $6-$20/race depending on bankroll. Have couple retired guys that sit at 2 tables beside me. They seem to do okay and one of them gets a pick sheet that is pretty accurate. I like to go to watch people, drink a few red beers, watch the horses run & just relax. My mom and dad used to go and mom always bet 1-4-7 exacta box and always seemed to hit a decent payout at least once per trip. And couple years ago the favorites came in all day so in last race I boxed 3 long shots and it hit paying almost $800. Unfortunately had old college buddy there with his family celebrating his moms 90th bday so cost me $100 buying them drinks.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

you have no idea how much I love this stuff - and, frankly this board

I do my best to be self-aware in all facets, right down to how annoying I must be when posting ad nauseam about certain topics. it's never personal and I do my best to add levity.

as for your questions, here goes:

Do you know what your success rate is when you take the NFL 10+ point underdog? No

Is it a higher percentage when that underdog is at home or on the road? Don't know

Do you keep records from year to year to see where your strongest point is? No

And then maybe eliminate your weakest point. I can damn near guarantee the team I've lost the most money on over the last 4 years is our beloved Huskers

In the +40% category on road underdogs, is there any correlation between moving from an indoor to an outdoor facility? I don't know

Does it take into account coming off a bye week? No

What do you attribute the Vikings away from the Metrodome and hitting the OVERS? This one I actually have a thought, especially having been to both stadiums for both high- and low-leverage regular season games.

I honestly think the lighting (like going from night game to day game), the track, the space, the size, the relative quiet on the field (crowd in minn is great but the stadium is HUGE and just gobbles up the noise) play a factor

probably bigger factor frankly is the public's persistent doubt of Kirk Cousins & the Purple People Eaters moniker. Vikings are one of the least voluminous teams in the league as far as action is concerned (small fanbase, surprisingly under-the-radar even considering their relative success of late), so trends can stick a little longer. Dolphins are another team that covers at an abnormal rate over years at home (against the spread, not total), and Vegas has been slow to change due to lack of relative volume + public nature of their frequent opponents (Pats, Bills, Jets)

On the public money 80% to one side, what percentage of the time do you guesstimate you win? pure guess - maybe 55%?

In baseball, boring and effective is alright especially if you add a few shekels to the bankroll. Is this one of your consistently better plays? unquestionably yes. I build my football bankroll over the summer basically taking the Dodgers and Yankees -1.5 every single day. literally every single day.

Golf, but no hockey? ha! yes. I bet playoff hockey but just don't follow it all that closely. growing up in NE I never was a real puck-head, although NHL games live are second to none in terms of fan experience. Multiply by 10 for playoff games.

In my best golf season I hit 8 winners out of 32 tourneys - lowest odds were 8/1, highest 34/1. Needless to say, a very fun season!

I also bet a lot of super high odds in-game. for instance, I took the Vikings 20/1 to beat the Colts at halftime down 33-0. that one hit, most of them do not

for context, I'm a sales guy so paperwork/tracking/organization is far from my strong suit. I would do myself a million favors by keeping records, but I just can't bring myselft to do it. probably because I wouldn't like what they told me

Dude, you seem to be comfortable in the ways you do things. For a guy who plays a ton of sports, you are really enlightened to what type of gambler you are.

You would not do well working for me. LOL I'm a chart, track, evaluate kinda guy when it comes to wagering. It looks like you have a blast doing it the way you do it, so I say kudos for you kong!