A Thing Or Two About Horseracing

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Frequent Fonner visitor. Not real good at it, so don't get carried away. $6-$20/race depending on bankroll. Have couple retired guys that sit at 2 tables beside me. They seem to do okay and one of them gets a pick sheet that is pretty accurate. I like to go to watch people, drink a few red beers, watch the horses run & just relax. My mom and dad used to go and mom always bet 1-4-7 exacta box and always seemed to hit a decent payout at least once per trip. And couple years ago the favorites came in all day so in last race I boxed 3 long shots and it hit paying almost $800. Unfortunately had old college buddy there with his family celebrating his moms 90th bday so cost me $100 buying them drinks.

I really like your second sentence. A lot of guys aren't very good at it but do get carried away. You're winning half the battle right there.

There are a lot of guys and gals that also enjoy watching the people, drinking their favorite beverage, and relaxing. There are worse ways to spend an afternoon.

You seem to have a really good handle on how you do things. You don't
over-extend, you have fun, and having a nice hit every year or so pays for lots of red beers.

 

[viewfromthebooth]

I really like your second sentence. A lot of guys aren't very good at it but do get carried away. You're winning half the battle right there.

There are a lot of guys and gals that also enjoy watching the people, drinking their favorite beverage, and relaxing. There are worse ways to spend an afternoon.

You seem to have a really good handle on how you do things. You don't
over-extend, you have fun, and having a nice hit every year or so pays for lots of red beers.

I go hoping to win a little not planning on winning a lot. Actually enjoy it more on Fridays and Sundays as Saturdays at Fonner have been pulling in good crowds last couple years. Not a fan of standing in line waiting on people to bet when they don't look at program until getting to window.

 

[dpnavy]

People tend to believe everybody loses playing horses or dogs, and that's just not true. Some guys, like your Dad and his group, obviously found a way to use the data to their advantage.

My son, and not jokingly, always says I have a "Beautiful Mind". Some guys just are blessed with an unexplainable ability to see things that others don't.

Congratulations on being exposed to the gaming world as a young man and not getting involved with it. I sense, had you shown an interest, your Dad had the ability to teach you things that very, very few people could comprehend.

A lot of people really don't know HOW they will react once they start to gamble. A problem gambler is a problem to people around him. I've seen studies and MRIs that show how certain parts of the brain just really fire up to a compulsive gambler compared to a "normal" person. It's ruined a lot of people's lives, marriages, and families' lives.

Thanks for the comment.

Very interesting, about the runup distanced at the start of races at different tracks. Of course, I have followed and knew Fonner is a early link in the racing track crowd through the year and know many trainers use it to condition their whole stock of horses. Shippers come in every year from outstate! Is it wise to bet them more heavily or bet the local favorites? Say, they come from Ark, running 10k claiming and move into Fonner 5k claiming races? What do I look for in the new horses coming in?

In getting back to times, Fonner Park track record at 6F is 1:10 Orphan Kist,, easy for me to remember! At Fonner there is a area where the serious bunch gather, racing forms spread out, and not a lot of smiling! Haha! Are horses in intimidated by other horses. Is there such a thing as a horse always running 2nd and refuses to win? At Fonner, they have them called, a whole field of non-winners all running against each other in one race! What to look for? Who to pick? Keep money in POCKET??? Ha

Thanks, I'm enjoying this! I'll check Wednesday. Love the Kentucky Derby and when they make that last turn, and the announcer says. "and down the stretch they come"!!! With that long stretch, thats when the shit hits the fan!!! Magnificant horses!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I go hoping to win a little not planning on winning a lot. Actually enjoy it more on Fridays and Sundays as Saturdays at Fonner have been pulling in good crowds last couple years. Not a fan of standing in line waiting on people to bet when they don't look at program until getting to window.

Have you thought of just going to the Totalisator and punching your own tickets in? I've done it at multiple tracks, and it's very easy.

Just insert cash or a voucher. Pick your track. The type of wager you want to make and then punch away. It really is easy and every track has several machines that you can do it.

Yes, people not knowing what they want to bet until they get to the window used to tick me off too!

Give it a try on a couple of $ 2.00 bets just to get used to navigating those machines, and I think you'll surprise yourself with how easy it is. Plus, you don't run the risk of a teller punching in the wrong number(s).

 

[dpnavy]

Have you thought of just going to the Totalisator and punching your own tickets in? I've done it at multiple tracks, and it's very easy.

Just insert cash or a voucher. Pick your track. The type of wager you want to make and then punch away. It really is easy and every track has several machines that you can do it.

Yes, people not knowing what they want to bet until they get to the window used to tick me off too!

Give it a try on a couple of $ 2.00 bets just to get used to navigating those machines, and I think you'll surprise yourself with how easy it is. Plus, you don't run the risk of a teller punching in the wrong number(s).

Yep, same problem at Fonner. I think I'll learn how to use the machines. Small story, so bear with me. Hastings yrs ago had quarter horse races, which I love. I went to the window on a race and told the person, $2 dollar exacta, box it. They were loading and she didn't know what boxing means. So, I said $2 Quinilla. She got it in. If I remember a quinilla boxes the bet at a lower cost. The race was postponed a few minutes and I went back, but they were not taking any more bets! Race went off and I won the quinilla, like $90. BUT there was NO exacta winner. I would have got the whole pool! Maybe $400 to $600. I laughed, it was my fault to a degree! Bet early!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Yep, same problem at Fonner. I think I'll learn how to use the machines. Small story, so bear with me. Hastings yrs ago had quarter horse races, which I love. I went to the window on a race and told the person, $2 dollar exacta, box it. They were loading and she didn't know what boxing means. So, I said $2 Quinilla. She got it in. If I remember a quinilla boxes the bet at a lower cost. The race was postponed a few minutes and I went back, but they were not taking any more bets! Race went off and I won the quinilla, like $90. BUT there was NO exacta winner. I would have got the whole pool! Maybe $400 to $600. I laughed, it was my fault to a degree! Bet early!

Dang, that would have been enough to tick someone off! All in all the folks who punch in tickets are pretty good, but on those busy days, they can get frustrated and make a mistake which can cost you money. That's why I always punch in my own tickets. If I screw up, which I haven't, I would have no one to blame but myself. LOL

It's too bad that teller wasn't trained well enough to get that exacta box in for you, a $ 400- $ 600 exacta pool would have been a really nice hit for you dp.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Very interesting, about the runup distanced at the start of races at different tracks. Of course, I have followed and knew Fonner is a early link in the racing track crowd through the year and know many trainers use it to condition their whole stock of horses. Shippers come in every year from outstate! Is it wise to bet them more heavily or bet the local favorites? Say, they come from Ark, running 10k claiming and move into Fonner 5k claiming races? What do I look for in the new horses coming in?

In getting back to times, Fonner Park track record at 6F is 1:10 Orphan Kist,, easy for me to remember! At Fonner there is a area where the serious bunch gather, racing forms spread out, and not a lot of smiling! Haha! Are horses in intimidated by other horses. Is there such a thing as a horse always running 2nd and refuses to win? At Fonner, they have them called, a whole field of non-winners all running against each other in one race! What to look for? Who to pick? Keep money in POCKET??? Ha

Thanks, I'm enjoying this! I'll check Wednesday. Love the Kentucky Derby and when they make that last turn, and the announcer says. "and down the stretch they come"!!! With that long stretch, thats when the shit hits the fan!!! Magnificant horses!

Wow dp, some really good thoughts and questions! I actually remember Orphan Kist, she was a really nice mare trained by Linda Davidson. Years ago her dad, Wayne Davidson was a really nice trainer who did some good things with young horses at Ak-Sar-Ben.

As far as shippers into Fonner, especially early in the meet. Typically, horses that previously ran at Ded (Delta Downs in Louisiana) and EvD (Evangeline Downs in Louisiana) will tend to have a lot more early speed than the local horses at the same class level. I haven't done any specific research, but I know trainers Mark Hibdon and Isai Gonzalez tend to do really well shipping in those types to Fonner.

Anyone trainer who has done very well shipping into Fonner is Bethke. He ships in from Arapahoe in Colorado and generally rides his son?/brother/ and they are a fairly potent combination.

I would pay a little attention to horses shipping in from TUP at Turf Paradise. They tend to have already had an out or two when they ship to Fonner, plus, being in Arizona they probably haven't missed any training days because of snow as Fonner has. LOL

A couple of trainers I recall who do well at Fonner are Condon Schuyler and Robert Hoffman. In Hoffman's case, he tends to be very good at the early 6f races, since most of the races in the first 2-3 weeks are the 4f type sprints.

Now, I'm not saying this stuff is based on actual research, it's mostly from just glancing at some of the result charts. Maybe a week or so before Fonner starts this year, I'll take a couple of hours and do some REAL research at Fonner and maybe I can offer a suggestion or two on who to keep an eye out on especially early in the meet. No promises dp, but I'll try to do that. If I come up with some good stuff, not only yourself but a couple of others on here seem to go to Fonner, so it might give them a couple of things to look at too. Like I said, my plan is NOT to pick horses for anyone, but I don't mind mentioning a trainer or two who shows good intent.

Generally, a 10K shipper from Oaklawn should spank any 5K Fonner claimer. If it were me, I would skip all the Maiden Claiming races at Fonner and try to find horses with at least a little past form to compare to the rest of the field. But, it's your money and I'd encourage you to do as you feel comfortable doing.

Absolutely horses sense superiority! Those horses that always run 2nd or 3rd are called "sucker horses". Many times they like to "buddy-up" in a horse race and just kinda run alongside another horse for security. The last thing they are thinking about is winning the race. But, they do win on occasion. If you're chasing a horse like that and it takes him 2-3-4 times to win a race, you probably can't make any money playing him.

Gotta run dp. You had some good questions and I enjoyed trying to add a little to your comments.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

we live in northern CO (wife is from western MT), and it's nice to see some of that history still very much alive and well here in the state

I pass people working on horseback weekly during the summer months - right off highway 257!

I'll get sidetracked here just for a minute and tell you about the biggest crackup I ever had at the track.

Maybe 20 years ago I was playing Sam Houston Race Track in Houston and i had a horse that night that I just wanted to hammer. It was a 1-mile Turf race and the trainer, who still trains, is a guy named Henry Johnson.

Anyhow, Superfectas (picking the first 4 finishers in the race) was a fairly new concept and I thought they would/could lead to some really large payoffs.

It was a 12 horse field, and the horse was 30/1 in the morning line which is about as big as a morning line will get. So I wheeled the horse, let's say he was the #1 horse. The bet was 1/ALL/ALL/ALL. In other words, as long as my horse won it didn't matter what the other order of finish was because I would win the bet. That ticket only cost $ 99.00.

In that type of play, IF there is only one ticket on the winner, that person (who I thought MIGHT be me) would take the entire pool. When I looked at the superfecta pool it was about 280K. So if you take out the 18% (at the time) the payoff on that one ticket would pay $229,000,00.

To make a long story short, my horse is in the lead by about 8 lengths with maybe 100 yards to go and no one was even close to closing that distance. So, ching, ching, ching, I'm thinking. I look at the pack of horses to see what might run 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, although, I was positive I had the entire pool.

So I hear this big gasp, and I look back to my horse, and for no effing reason in this world, decided to take a hard left turn and JUMP the inner rail, essentially taking himself out of the race.

It was brutal, that was the only time I actually walked out of a racetrack talking to myself.

I have one other really tragic story to tell about horses because it likely cost me about 250K a year just by playing one certain trainer.

 

[king_kong_]

I'll get sidetracked here just for a minute and tell you about the biggest crackup I ever had at the track.

Maybe 20 years ago I was playing Sam Houston Race Track in Houston and i had a horse that night that I just wanted to hammer. It was a 1-mile Turf race and the trainer, who still trains, is a guy named Henry Johnson.

Anyhow, Superfectas (picking the first 4 finishers in the race) was a fairly new concept and I though thought they would/could lead to some really large payoffs.

It was a 12 horse field, and the horse was 30/1 in the morning line which is about as big as a morning line will get. So I wheeled the horse, let's say he was the #1 horse. The bet was 1/ALL/ALL/ALL. In other words, as long as my horse won it didn't matter what the other order of finish was because I would win the bet. That ticket only cost $ 99.00.

In that type of play, IF there is only one ticket on the winner, that person (who I thought MIGHT be me) would take the entire pool. When I looked at the superfecta pool it was about 280K. So if you take out the 18% (at the time) the payoff on that one ticket would pay $229,000,00.

To make a long story short, my horse is in the lead by about 8 lengths with maybe 100 yards to go and no one was even close to closing that distance. So, ching, ching, ching, I'm thinking. I look at the pack of horses to see what might run 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, although, I was positive I had the entire pool.

So I hear this big gasp, and I look back to my horse, and for no effing reason in this world, decided to take a hard left turn and JUMP the inner rail, essentially taking himself out of the race.

It was brutal, that was the only time I actually walked out of a racetrack talking to myself.

I have one other really tragic story to tell about horses because it likely cost me about 250K a year just by playing one certain trainer.

ha!

man

that is so brutal

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

we live in northern CO (wife is from western MT), and it's nice to see some of that history still very much alive and well here in the state

I pass people working on horseback weekly during the summer months - right off highway 257!

I'll hijack this reply so I can tell you a really sad horseracing story.

In 2002, I was playing the Texas circuit, Retama, Lone Star, and Sam Houston. I had done a lot of research on a trainer named Ramon Flores. Now, he was just an 11% winner on the year, but the way he did it was amazing.

I can honestly say, of all the hundreds of really great trainers I've played, he was the best I've ever seen, and no one is even close.

He had some unbelievable angles that I played, and it was not unusual for me to catch him with $ 100.00 winners 2-3 times a week, and maybe up to ten $ 50.00 winners. In a WEEK. He was a virtual slot machine.

So, I'm playing over 200 other trainers at the time, but every day the Texas circuit was running, my day began with "what is Flores running today?"

He was a trainer who rode a ton of different jockeys, most of them capable riders, but they didn't get a lot of mounts, so they were probably living hand to mouth. He was like their savior in that business, suddenly a lot of these guys were winning a race or two a week and being able to support their families.

It was not unusual for a Flores horse to be in a race at 40/1 and a heavy favorite by top trainer Asmussen to have what looked like the easy winner. The gate would open, and one jockey on either side of Asmussen's horse would break in and one would break out, in essence shuffling that favorite into last place. At the same time, Flores, riding a previously struggling jockey would find themselves on the lead by 5 lengths in a matter of a few strides.

To make a long story short, Flores was feeding a lot of families on that circuit, and so he was "taken care of" by almost the entire jockey colony. When all was said and done, I believe he was the first trainer in the country who used Epogen, which is a fancy name for saying blood doping his horses.

Now the sad part. Flores and one of his assistants were shipping, taking a horse to another track to run, they hit a slick spot on the road and swerved back and forth, and went off the road, but not at a high rate of speed.

The driver, his assistant, walked away without a scratch. Flores was killed in the accident. He was 34 years old at the time. From a selfish point of view, I was devastated and it probably took me a week to shake it off.

The moral of this story is that Flores showed me SO MANY different angles that could be played and it expanded my already expansive database. I sure wonder what this man may have accomplished had he not been stricken down. And how many more years earlier I might have retired other than playing just for fun?

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

ha!

man

that is so brutal

You know how it is kong. It's not the 99 bucks.

 

[viewfromthebooth]

Have you thought of just going to the Totalisator and punching your own tickets in? I've done it at multiple tracks, and it's very easy.

Just insert cash or a voucher. Pick your track. The type of wager you want to make and then punch away. It really is easy and every track has several machines that you can do it.

Yes, people not knowing what they want to bet until they get to the window used to tick me off too!

Give it a try on a couple of $ 2.00 bets just to get used to navigating those machines, and I think you'll surprise yourself with how easy it is. Plus, you don't run the risk of a teller punching in the wrong number(s).

The 2 guys that I sit beside and reference earlier use the machines to place their bets. They told me how easy it was so I do use the machines quite a bit now. But unfortunately the unprepared also show up.

 

[dinglefritz]

I've been going for yrs and enjoy it immensely as a 75 yr old. Since I'm in Hastings, I go to Fonner Park and enjoy the track, people watching and the horses! I remember Dr John Yost, who practiced in Hastings and knew several horse owners and trainers! He used to say, "you got to know when they are running their horses to win" I'm the smaller better that takes $ 80 to $100 to lose and don't feel bad about it!

I've fingered through the book several times by Andrew Beyer, "Picking winners" Question is, How do I know if they are really wanting to win, and it it Win tickets only? I know to use any advice, I would have to pick up my knowledge of horse playing and what bets to use at the track! Thank you!

Doc Yost was a guy I knew as a kid. Great guy.

 

[dinglefritz]

I told kong a week ago that I'd do a post about horseracing, so here goes.

I think there are all types of horseracing "fans." There's the once-a-year, Kentucky Derby type fan that shows up at a racetrack with some ridiculous hat and is there to have fun, drinks his or her's favorite beverage, and all in all, have a fun time, generally lose a few bucks. But, fun was the objective of the day.

Other types are the Triple Crown, Breeder's Cup, and big day type fans. They follow horses from May thru June and then don't think about them again until maybe November when the Breeder's Cup arrives. Over the course of those few days, maybe they make a buck or two but all in all, it's about having fun doing a different social activity.

Then there's the weekend bettor. They work all week, go to the track to blow off some steam, and generally lose money consistently at the track. It's kind of like a hobby that they may enjoy, and like most hobbies it costs money.

Next, we move to the horseplayer who may visit the racetrack or simulcast outlet 3-4 times a week. They know more than the occasional racegoer, but not much more.

Once in a while they get lucky and make some pocket change. They win and they don't know why, and they lose and they don't know why. But, they enjoy the game and make up a percentage of every racetrack/simulcast facility.

Then you have the guys who play regularly. They know the trainers, the jockeys, and some of the horses, but overall 99% of them don't understand the game. They think the best horse wins. That may be true in the Handicap and Stakes races, but day in and day out, the favorite will only win 36% of the time. So 64% of the time, the public is clueless.

Many are really smart guys, good with numbers, they just don't know what those numbers mean. They spew a bunch of numbers that don't mean shit.
Typically, they are in a bad mood as if they have to be there.

There will be a pocket of really serious handicappers. Among those types, about 5% actually win. They wager a lot more than the other bettors, they hit big and they lose big. Most of their money comes through a rebate shop that returns a portion of their wagers.

They're not opposed to making really large plays on chalk. To them, a $ 4.00 winner doubles their money. These are the guys who bet $ 100,000.00 to show on an 8/5 horse. Problem is, they've never done the math and don't realize how good you have to be to reap a real profit. The serious guys will shovel $ 1 million a year or more through the windows.

I don't fit in any of these named categories. Over 50 years I've done my own research, and developed my own methodology, and the game has been beatable for decades. And I'm not talking chump change.

I developed a very sophisticated operation, one that took years to build. If this thread gains any traction, I will actually elaborate on how my overall game advanced, but I mostly am interested in helping fellow horseplayers.

Now that I retired about 10 years ago, I have throttled my game down significantly. I used betting horses as a source of income. It was a vehicle. It can be an extremely challenging sport to try to beat if someone doesn't have a full understanding of what the important factors are in picking the winning horse AT A PRICE.

I know there are a handful of guys who post on here who like to gamble on horses, so I'll see if there are things that I suggest to them that can help them elevate their game. If someone seems to be a problem gambler, any suggestions I give will be minimal. They are a special breed.

I'm not here to pick horses or tell you a horse to bet on or anything of that nature. I'm not selling anything. You certainly don't have to believe anything I say either. I'm probably open to answering almost any type of question short of naming a trainer that might be perceived as negative.

Last thing. For over 50 years, I've had a core belief about horseracing, and a similar concept was tweeted by Elon a few days ago. I don't know if it came from the movie The Matrix, or if it's something Musk just said, but I agree wholeheartedly. It goes like this:

What would you do if: The only way to escape the Matrix is to unlearn everything that you have been taught and rebuild your entire belief system on critical thought and analysis?

That say's it all.

Wow. Are you autistic? I KID …. My problem with gambling is that I’m an ADD guy and don’t want to think that hard about it. The only time I’ve bet the ponies in the last 10 years was at Caesar’s book in Vegas. Love to watch em run and will watch races on cable just for the hell of it but I haven’t been to the track in years. I fit the VERY casual category I guess.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Wow. Are you autistic? I KID …. My problem with gambling is that I’m an ADD guy and don’t want to think that hard about it. The only time I’ve bet the ponies in the last 10 years was at Caesar’s book in Vegas. Love to watch em run and will watch races on cable just for the hell of it but I haven’t been to the track in years. I fit the VERY casual category I guess.

Describe...autistic. LOL. I'm not ADD, but I can literally sit for hours in front of a computer and look at Past Performances. For some weird reason, I just really enjoy it.

All that know me, knows I get just as much enjoyment crunching those numbers, and researching trainers as I do wagering on them. (Weird, I know).

I've always just been enamored with numbers.

To be honest, one of my greatest pleasures in life is researching and finding certain trainers that are VERY good at what they do, testing the data I find, then wagering on it and winning real money.

Plus, when I identify a trainer who is really good at a certain methodology, it really is the reward that keeps on giving. Some guys haven't changed their patterns in 20 years.

It's kind of the way I reward myself for the work I've put into it. (Remember dingle, and I am sure you and others know this, horseplayers are a strange breed).

I think a pretty good percentage of horseplayers are naturally good with numbers, the problem is many of them have gone a lifetime at the track and never really figured out exactly what all those numbers mean.

I'll leave you with this because it really is funny.

There's a saying that two buddies ran into each other at the track, and one asked "how are you doing today?"

The guy said, "Not bad, I'm hoping to break even today because I really need the money." LOL

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Wow. Are you autistic? I KID …. My problem with gambling is that I’m an ADD guy and don’t want to think that hard about it. The only time I’ve bet the ponies in the last 10 years was at Caesar’s book in Vegas. Love to watch em run and will watch races on cable just for the hell of it but I haven’t been to the track in years. I fit the VERY casual category I guess.

As an addendum to what I replied to you earlier. This thread is slowing down as I figured it would. But come Kentucky Derby time I may do a "rather" lengthy write-up on the horses entered and talk about the horse's inner psychological tendencies.

It's not gonna necessarily be a Kentucky Derby prediction, but I know a guy named Kerry Thomas who has an incredible talent to evaluate race horses based on their mental profiles. I promise, it really is interesting even if you're not a race fan. He's kind of a horse whisperer.

He talks about herd mentality and the elite mental and physical abilities of all the horses entered. It's like a sports psychologist publicly giving his professional opinions on certain football players and what mental aspects aid or harm their competitive effort compared to their peers.

He always writes great stuff. Plus, he's damn good at pointing to who the top 3-4-5 horses should be, barring unforeseen things that can happen in a
20-horse field.

 

[dpnavy]

Describe...autistic. LOL. I'm not ADD, but I can literally sit for hours in front of a computer and look at Past Performances. For some weird reason, I just really enjoy it.

All that know me, knows I get just as much enjoyment crunching those numbers, and researching trainers as I do wagering on them. (Weird, I know).

I've always just been enamored with numbers.

To be honest, one of my greatest pleasures in life is researching and finding certain trainers that are VERY good at what they do, testing the data I find, then wagering on it and winning real money.

Plus, when I identify a trainer who is really good at a certain methodology, it really is the reward that keeps on giving. Some guys haven't changed their patterns in 20 years.

It's kind of the way I reward myself for the work I've put into it. (Remember dingle, and I am sure you and others know this, horseplayers are a strange breed).

I think a pretty good percentage of horseplayers are naturally good with numbers, the problem is many of them have gone a lifetime at the track and never really figured out exactly what all those numbers mean.

I'll leave you with this because it really is funny.

There's a saying that two buddies ran into each other at the track, and one asked "how are you doing today?"

The guy said, "Not bad, I'm hoping to break even today because I really need the money." LOL

I'm sure you have heard this one before, as I tell it to people that come to the track with me for the first time! Do you know the difference between horse races & dog races? 🐕 "I say dogs can't read" ! Old joke! Ha!
I

 

[dpnavy]

As an addendum to what I replied to you earlier. This thread is slowing down as I figured it would. But come Kentucky Derby time I may do a "rather" lengthy write-up on the horses entered and talk about the horse's inner psychological tendencies.

It's not gonna necessarily be a Kentucky Derby prediction, but I know a guy named Kerry Thomas who has an incredible talent to evaluate race horses based on their mental profiles. I promise, it really is interesting even if you're not a race fan. He's kind of a horse whisperer.

He talks about herd mentality and tmental and physical abilities of all the horses entered. It's like a sports psychologist publicly giving his professional opinions on certain football players and what mental aspects aid or harm their competitive effort compared to their peers.

He always writes great stuff. Plus, he's damn good at pointing to who the top 3-4-5 horses should be, barring unforeseen things that can happen in a
20-horse field.

I'm interested in this particular conversation subject, but too darn late for me! Woke up at 1am! Milk & cinnamon roll! But in passing, I can watch Calvin Borel inside ride many times in I believe Kentucky Derby! How it opened up perfectly that time! Was it planning or luck!! Ha

 

[dinglefritz]

As an addendum to what I replied to you earlier. This thread is slowing down as I figured it would. But come Kentucky Derby time I may do a "rather" lengthy write-up on the horses entered and talk about the horse's inner psychological tendencies.

It's not gonna necessarily be a Kentucky Derby prediction, but I know a guy named Kerry Thomas who has an incredible talent to evaluate race horses based on their mental profiles. I promise, it really is interesting even if you're not a race fan. He's kind of a horse whisperer.

He talks about herd mentality and the elite mental and physical abilities of all the horses entered. It's like a sports psychologist publicly giving his professional opinions on certain football players and what mental aspects aid or harm their competitive effort compared to their peers.

He always writes great stuff. Plus, he's damn good at pointing to who the top 3-4-5 horses should be, barring unforeseen things that can happen in a
20-horse field.

As a guy who spent way too many hours with horses as a kid I’ll agree that there are huge differences in the “want to” from horse to horse and that can make a big difference in a performance horse. I’ve watched some of the videos and read the “manuals” on equine psychology. It’s been a long time ago but it was interesting because it explained a lot of the why in what I used to see young horses in particular do. I actually helped my daughter use Monty Robert’s’ horse techniques to tame a goofy heifer that was her 4-H show project. His desensitization technique for wild horses worked very well. He points out in his videos how different each horse is but yet how their herd instincts can be used. All that said I had a big beautiful palomino filly about 10 years ago that I had to weigh up because there was just no trusting her. She would just fly apart at the smallest thing without regard for her own physical well being. In decades of being around horses I had never seen one as crazy as her.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I'm interested in this particular conversation subject, but too darn late for me! Woke up at 1am! Milk & cinnamon roll! But in passing, I can watch Calvin Borel inside ride many times in I believe Kentucky Derby! How it opened up perfectly that time! Was it planning or luck!! Ha

Borel was one of the few who would really ride the rail without fear. He gave fantastic rides in the Derby. He was one of the few jockeys who gets a horse in full flight around the turn and really never had to move in and out among a bunch of tired horses. He just set sail for the finish line and ROLLED.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

As a guy who spent way too many hours with horses as a kid I’ll agree that there are huge differences in the “want to” from horse to horse and that can make a big difference in a performance horse. I’ve watched some of the videos and read the “manuals” on equine psychology. It’s been a long time ago but it was interesting because it explained a lot of the why in what I used to see young horses in particular do. I actually helped my daughter use Monty Robert’s’ horse techniques to tame a goofy heifer that was her 4-H show project. His desensitization technique for wild horses worked very well. He points out in his videos how different each horse is but yet how their herd instincts can be used. All that said I had a big beautiful palomino filly about 10 years ago that I had to weigh up because there was just no trusting her. She would just fly apart at the smallest thing without regard for her own physical well being. In decades of being around horses I had never seen one as crazy as her.

I remember you have a pretty extensive background with horses and couldn't agree more on some horses having a loose screw. We had one, Emily, and you didn't want to turn your back on her, cause she'd take a bite out of your shoulder.

Sounds like your palomino was an even dicier thing since it was random.
When they're flighty like that, you just can't drop your guard.

My favorite horse is one with 4 legs that can run really fast. LOL

By the way, Epicenter, who you really liked, did turn out to be a helluva good 3-year-old racehorse. 11 starts 6 wins, and 3 places, and a not-too-bad
$ 2,940.000.00 in earnings. In simple terms, every time they rolled him out of the barn into a race, he made them over 250K a pop.

This past Breeder's Cup in November he ran in the Classic and suffered a leg injury causing him to be retired to stud. The surgery went well and so now he gets to do the fun stuff as a reward for a nice career.

In that race, a horse called Flightline won by many lengths. In my many years of watching horses run, and I'm talking the super-elite horses, he is among the 3 greatest racehorses I've ever seen.

In a 6 race career, this horse has not even drawn a deep breath and so it's not really known how great this horse may have actually been.

Of course, like all the truly great ones these days, they retired him. It's a business and there are mega-millions for this horse to make as a stud.

Not in any particular order: Arrogate, Flightline, and of course Secretariat. In my opinion, there are no others that belong in that conversation.

 

[dpnavy]

I remember you have a pretty extensive background with horses and couldn't agree more on some horses having a loose screw. We had one, Emily, and you didn't want to turn your back on her, cause she'd take a bite out of your shoulder.

Sounds like your palomino was an even dicier thing since it was random.
When they're flighty like that, you just can't drop your guard.

My favorite horse is one with 4 legs that can run really fast. LOL

By the way, Epicenter, who you really liked, did turn out to be a helluva good 3-year-old racehorse. 11 starts 6 wins, and 3 places, and a not-too-bad
$ 2,940.000.00 in earnings. In simple terms, every time they rolled him out of the barn into a race, he made them over 250K a pop.

This past Breeder's Cup in November he ran in the Classic and suffered a leg injury causing him to be retired to stud. The surgery went well and so now he gets to do the fun stuff as a reward for a nice career.

In that race, a horse called Flightline won by many lengths. In my many years of watching horses run, and I'm talking the super-elite horses, he is among the 3 greatest racehorses I've ever seen.

In a 6 race career, this horse has not even drawn a deep breath and so it's not really known how great this horse may have actually been.

Of course, like all the truly great ones these days, they retired him. It's a business and there are mega-millions for this horse to make as a stud.

Not in any particular order: Arrogate, Flightline, and of course Secretariat. In my opinion, there are no others that belong in that conversation.

Goody, I can ask a few questions as we have experience!# 1 My brother-in-law a cowboy team roper says horses need a companion horse, with in the corral! #2 I've heard the rich, rich horse racing circle, frown upon cowboy hats!! #3 The episode after the recent triple crown race, where the winning horse was biting the lead escort horse & rider, where all horse people agreed he defended his horse & himyself from the bites! Ha Is the early training of these horses very important in how they act later ?? Thanks

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Goody, I can ask a few questions as we have experience!# 1 My brother-in-law a cowboy team roper says horses need a companion horse, with in the corral! #2 I've heard the rich, rich horse racing circle, frown upon cowboy hats!! #3 The episode after the recent triple crown race, where the winning horse was biting the lead escort horse & rider, where all horse people agreed he defended his horse & himyself from the bites! Ha Is the early training of these horses very important in how they act later ?? Thanks

That's right dp. Some horses have a best friend that's a goat. Most horses just have a herd mentality, but many are herd leaders by nature, and other horses in the group sense that superiority.

I don't own a cowboy hat, but I'll tell you, a really attractive female with country garb and a cowboy hat can be hot as hell!!

I spent a week one night at Billy Bob's in Fort Worth. I think it's closed now, but was a huge facility. It had like 10 different bars, an inside rodeo ring, and an auditorium that could probably seat many hundreds, if not, more people.

I sat on the first row during the bull riding. One bull, being ridden, got so close to the fence I literally got shit splattered on me. I had to leave the rodeo, go wash up in the restroom, and visit the gift shop, and all they had were cowboy shirts. It must have been a helluva sight with me wearing a cowboy shirt, dress slacks, and dress shoes. LOL

Everywhere I went in that joint on a Saturday night there were just beautiful cowgirls with cowboy hats. Luckily, I don't drink, so I had the pleasure of all that scenery with a clear mind.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Goody, I can ask a few questions as we have experience!# 1 My brother-in-law a cowboy team roper says horses need a companion horse, with in the corral! #2 I've heard the rich, rich horse racing circle, frown upon cowboy hats!! #3 The episode after the recent triple crown race, where the winning horse was biting the lead escort horse & rider, where all horse people agreed he defended his horse & himyself from the bites! Ha Is the early training of these horses very important in how they act later ?? Thanks

dp, I'll add a second reply to your comments because you ask about a horse's early training and how they act later. You are exactly right! Although most horses are similar, many of them adopt/learn different behavior based on how they are treated/trained at a younger age.

I'm gonna tell you something that most people don't realize. There are trainers who are really good with all their horses, male and female alike. Some trainers and really good with male horses and not worth a crap with female horses. Some trainers are great with female horses and not nearly as good with male horses.

"Typically" a trainer can be a little "rougher" with the training methods on his male race horses. But female horses are female horses, they generally don't respond to rough treatment from the trainer.

The trainers who are VERY good like H. Graham Motion, Michael Matz, Richard Mandella, and several others are highly successful, yet their female horse's success far exceeds the success of the male horses they train. Of course, they have exceptions too.

But, overall that is a handicapping factor I use all the time. One guy on the Fonner circuit who has always been very, very good with female horses is Jim Cranwell.

I've watched trainers in the paddock, kind of handle a male horse a little rough and it's not a surprise they have little success running fillies and mares.

When you see a horse in the paddock and its tail is set flat down and just sitting on its butthole, that's a horse that's not fit and ready. When you see a horse who has his tail off his behind with a little curve to it, that's a horse that feels good. Now, it DOESN'T mean the horse is going to run well because he may just be a horse without much talent, and many times physical issues that crop up during the actual running of the race. .

But, if you see that horse today with a flat tail and he runs "Okay", and next time you see that horse with his tail curved a bit, you may just have a horse that is ready to run an improved race. That's one of the many ways a horse will tell you they are ready for a good effort.

dp, you and I have been around this horseracing game for decades. You're 75 and I'm no spring chicken at 69 years old. We've seen a thing or two. I enjoy seeing senior citizens still continuing to challenge their minds in a very difficult sport. Don't let anyone take away your enjoyment of doing what you do.

You seem to be a responsible gambler who enjoys the sport. You'd be a fun guy to have a cup of coffee with and just shoot the breeze. (And yes, like many have pointed out on this site, I can write and post for days, and I can talk horses for days also. LOL).

You realize the more you keep posting with interesting comments and questions the more open I'm going to be to giving you little insights that could help your racing experience be even better. A lot of what I post IS about me, but my objective when I started this thread was to pass along a few tidbits here and there that might actually help a fellow horse player.

I'm not interested in helping some degenerate gambler like giving a drunk a drink. But, I do like to help guys who are doing this out of enjoyment and staying within their means.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Goody, I can ask a few questions as we have experience!# 1 My brother-in-law a cowboy team roper says horses need a companion horse, with in the corral! #2 I've heard the rich, rich horse racing circle, frown upon cowboy hats!! #3 The episode after the recent triple crown race, where the winning horse was biting the lead escort horse & rider, where all horse people agreed he defended his horse & himyself from the bites! Ha Is the early training of these horses very important in how they act later ?? Thanks

dp, I seem to be on a roll today, so I'll throw another post your way. This one will involve what is called the Cornell Collar.

If you're not familiar with it, and 99% of horseplayers haven't, it's a different type of bridle that can, in some cases, really improve the way certain horses run. No doubt, you've seen a lot of horses running really well, and then all of a sudden they just literally stop running. There can be a lot of reasons for this, but the main one is they have had a palate displacement. What that means is that all of a sudden that horse has his airway blocked by his tongue, similar to swallowing their tongue. Scares the hell out of them.

In the early 2000s, someone invented the Cornell Collar and it stops horses from getting palate displacement when they run. A trainer has to have a vet approve the use of the Collar, and once the horse begins to use that Collar they have to continue to wear it while racing, until the vet signs off on it being taken off.

A Cornell Collar is NOT legal in NY and PA. And it is legal in a lot of racing venues, including Fonner Park where you go to watch and wager on horses.

There are a handful of trainers at Fonner Park that do use the Cornell Collar. Generally, if you buy a program, down at the bottom it will say, # 2,
# 5, for example, use a Cornell Collar.

Now in this public forum, I can't tell you which trainers use it to their advantage because that's not what I'm gonna do in this thread. Just take a peek next time Fonner starts and see which trainers use them and which ones don't then if you like, keep track. it might put some money in your pocket.

It does NOT mean that horse today will run well, it just means this trainer is using a legal device to "try" to improve his horse's chances.

 

[HamptonHusker]

dp, I'll add a second reply to your comments because you ask about a horse's early training and how they act later. You are exactly right! Although most horses are similar, many of them adopt/learn different behavior based on how they are treated/trained at a younger age.

I'm gonna tell you something that most people don't realize. There are trainers who are really good with all their horses, male and female alike. Some trainers and really good with male horses and not worth a crap with female horses. Some trainers are great with female horses and not nearly as good with male horses.

"Typically" a trainer can be a little "rougher" with the training methods on his male race horses. But female horses are female horses, they generally don't respond to rough treatment from the trainer.

The trainers who are VERY good like H. Graham Motion, Michael Matz, Richard Mandella, and several others are highly successful, yet their female horse's success far exceeds the success of the male horses they train. Of course, they have exceptions too.

But, overall that is a handicapping factor I use all the time. One guy on the Fonner circuit who has always been very, very good with female horses is Jim Cranwell.

I've watched trainers in the paddock, kind of handle a male horse a little rough and it's not a surprise they have little success running fillies and mares.

When you see a horse in the paddock and its tail is set flat down and just sitting on its butthole, that's a horse that's not fit and ready. When you see a horse who has his tail off his behind with a little curve to it, that's a horse that feels good. Now, it DOESN'T mean the horse is going to run well because he may just be a horse without much talent, and many times physical issues that crop up during the actual running of the race. .

But, if you see that horse today with a flat tail and he runs "Okay", and next time you see that horse with his tail curved a bit, you may just have a horse that is ready to run an improved race. That's one of the many ways a horse will tell you they are ready for a good effort.

dp, you and I have been around this horseracing game for decades. You're 75 and I'm no spring chicken at 69 years old. We've seen a thing or two. I enjoy seeing senior citizens still continuing to challenge their minds in a very difficult sport. Don't let anyone take away your enjoyment of doing what you do.

You seem to be a responsible gambler who enjoys the sport. You'd be a fun guy to have a cup of coffee with and just shoot the breeze. (And yes, like many have pointed out on this site, I can write and post for days, and I can talk horses for days also. LOL).

You realize the more you keep posting with interesting comments and questions the more open I'm going to be to giving you little insights that could help your racing experience be even better. A lot of what I post IS about me, but my objective when I started this thread was to pass along a few tidbits here and there that might actually help a fellow horse player.

I'm not interested in helping some degenerate gambler like giving a drunk a drink. But, I do like to help guys who are doing this out of enjoyment and staying within their means.

Something my friends and I have always struggled with is identifying live Euro shippers on the turf especially on Breeder's Cup day with the enormous fields...I'm not talking about the 2-1 shots with Ryan Moore but the 12-1 or more that are live that always seem to hit the board or win that mess up our tri boxes or pick 4's...any insight or tips on how to come up with these not just on Breeder's Cup day but in general? The racing forms just don't give you much information on the Euro shippers. I grew up 25 minutes from Fonner and still visit frequently...I was at Pimlico for the Preakness when Rachel Alexandra won it, what a great atmosphere...enjoyed reading your thoughts on this topic so keep it going!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Something my friends and I have always struggled with is identifying live Euro shippers on the turf especially on Breeder's Cup day with the enormous fields...I'm not talking about the 2-1 shots with Ryan Moore but the 12-1 or more that are live that always seem to hit the board or win that mess up our tri boxes or pick 4's...any insight or tips on how to come up with these not just on Breeder's Cup day but in general? The racing forms just don't give you much information on the Euro shippers. I grew up 25 minutes from Fonner and still visit frequently...I was at Pimlico for the Preakness when Rachel Alexandra won it, what a great atmosphere...enjoyed reading your thoughts on this topic so keep it going!

Hampton, I'll give you a lot more detailed answer if you give me about an hour to research what you're asking about. I already know a lot about what you're talking about, but I'll research some guys that are great from Europe as well as the top ones in the USA besides the Chad Brown and Christophe Clement types. As you know they are mostly chalk, and I'll try to identify some guys where you can actually make some money.

 

[dpnavy]

dp, I'll add a second reply to your comments because you ask about a horse's early training and how they act later. You are exactly right! Although most horses are similar, many of them adopt/learn different behavior based on how they are treated/trained at a younger age.

I'm gonna tell you something that most people don't realize. There are trainers who are really good with all their horses, male and female alike. Some trainers and really good with male horses and not worth a crap with female horses. Some trainers are great with female horses and not nearly as good with male horses.

"Typically" a trainer can be a little "rougher" with the training methods on his male race horses. But female horses are female horses, they generally don't respond to rough treatment from the trainer.

The trainers who are VERY good like H. Graham Motion, Michael Matz, Richard Mandella, and several others are highly successful, yet their female horse's success far exceeds the success of the male horses they train. Of course, they have exceptions too.

But, overall that is a handicapping factor I use all the time. One guy on the Fonner circuit who has always been very, very good with female horses is Jim Cranwell.

I've watched trainers in the paddock, kind of handle a male horse a little rough and it's not a surprise they have little success running fillies and mares.

When you see a horse in the paddock and its tail is set flat down and just sitting on its butthole, that's a horse that's not fit and ready. When you see a horse who has his tail off his behind with a little curve to it, that's a horse that feels good. Now, it DOESN'T mean the horse is going to run well because he may just be a horse without much talent, and many times physical issues that crop up during the actual running of the race. .

But, if you see that horse today with a flat tail and he runs "Okay", and next time you see that horse with his tail curved a bit, you may just have a horse that is ready to run an improved race. That's one of the many ways a horse will tell you they are ready for a good effort.

dp, you and I have been around this horseracing game for decades. You're 75 and I'm no spring chicken at 69 years old. We've seen a thing or two. I enjoy seeing senior citizens still continuing to challenge their minds in a very difficult sport. Don't let anyone take away your enjoyment of doing what you do.

You seem to be a responsible gambler who enjoys the sport. You'd be a fun guy to have a cup of coffee with and just shoot the breeze. (And yes, like many have pointed out on this site, I can write and post for days, and I can talk horses for days also. LOL).

You realize the more you keep posting with interesting comments and questions the more open I'm going to be to giving you little insights that could help your racing experience be even better. A lot of what I post IS about me, but my objective when I started this thread was to pass along a few tidbits here and there that might actually help a fellow horse player.

I'm not interested in helping some degenerate gambler like giving a drunk a drink. But, I do like to help guys who are doing this out of enjoyment and staying within their means.

Thanks for the information and compliments. I follow horses track times ,breeding, racing history, trainers and jockeys and such on horses background, But I only do it briefly at the races! Its accumulated over the years! I admire your researching ability and interest in what you do! I know this fellow from Hastings that formerly owned racing dogs in Florida. Asking him, he said he takes the morning line top 4 horses and boxed them and wins! I tried it last year and didn't win! Haha! A few maybe.

In real life, after 4yrs in Navy, went to Kearney St graduated 1976, degree in business, and poly Science! Became a meat dept manager and cutter in Wyoming, Hastings, Kearney, York, Omaha! Enjoyed horse racing for the ability to go, have a good time, relaxing, and maybe win a buck. I actually have fun sitting by myself with the short form, as taking family and friends is a time visiitng and not evaluation time. I went through the bookie betting with football, baseball, basketball. Had a lot of knowledge but not much betting smarts. Thats why I admire your research as it hopefully takes out our bias and you are dealing with the facts! I do some daily stock buying, but only with certain guidelines, not a day trader!

Now another question, prerace and the parade, do you have your bets predetermined by that time or are you swayed by what you see from that horse as they pass the tote board??? I read where horses ears slanted forward, a good sign! Sure, we can meet at Fonner, by horse loading viewing window, bottom floor. usually like a table upstairs, any area! Sometimes sit at the end of finish line stands, where owners, families sit1

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Thanks for the information and compliments. I follow horses track times ,breeding, racing history, trainers and jockeys and such on horses background, But I only do it briefly at the races! Its accumulated over the years! I admire your researching ability and interest in what you do! I know this fellow from Hastings that formerly owned racing dogs in Florida. Asking him, he said he takes the morning line top 4 horses and boxed them and wins! I tried it last year and didn't win! Haha! A few maybe.

In real life, after 4yrs in Navy, went to Kearney St graduated 1976, degree in business, and poly Science! Became a meat dept manager and cutter in Wyoming, Hastings, Kearney, York, Omaha! Enjoyed horse racing for the ability to go, have a good time, relaxing, and maybe win a buck. I actually have fun sitting by myself with the short form, as taking family and friends is a time visiitng and not evaluation time. I went through the bookie betting with football, baseball, basketball. Had a lot of knowledge but not much betting smarts. Thats why I admire your research as it hopefully takes out our bias and you are dealing with the facts! I do some daily stock buying, but only with certain guidelines, not a day trader!

Now another question, prerace and the parade, do you have your bets predetermined by that time or are you swayed by what you see from that horse as they pass the tote board??? I read where horses ears slanted forward, a good sign! Sure, we can meet at Fonner, by horse loading viewing window, bottom floor. usually like a table upstairs, any area! Sometimes sit at the end of finish line stands, where owners, families sit1

dp, you give me a lot of stuff to tackle here! LOL At the track I've always said, "any social success will be a business failure."

As far as your friend boxing the top 4-morning line picks, it almost guarantees there would be a small exacta even if he won. Not incidentally, you could never do that at Fonner Park because many times there is a 6,7,8 horse field, so you're already looking at depressed values. For example, a horse in those races may be 8/1 morning line, whereas, in a full field, he would probably be closer to 15/1. If it worked for him, more power to him, but I doubt he ever won much money.

I have a specific methodology when it comes to betting. I typically handicap programs 2-3 days before they run. That allows me additional research before I ever get to the track. I write on a sheet of paper ALL the plays I'm making that day. Normally, I will bet around 30 races a day. They can be a combination of 3-horse exacta boxes, exacta wheels top and bottom, and sometimes a 4-horse exacta box.

I play a LOT of trifectas. Some tracks have wonky payoffs in their Superfectas, so I play the tri's because they are a better value. My main plays are Superfectas. I typically will box either 4 or 5 horses, depending on how strong the angle is I may go with a total wheel. In other words, if I like the #1 horse, I will play 1/ALL/ALL/ALL and I will always play them in .10 increments even if I have to hit the repeat button 5 or 10 times.

I do NOT care what you might say to me at the track or what anybody at the track says, I WILL PLAY MY HORSES. Once I have decided which way I'm playing the race, the only thing that can change it is if one of my really key horses is late scratched. Other than that, what I wrote on the paper at home is what I'm playing.

Generally, I will use the totalisator machine and punch in ALL my plays as soon as I get there. That way, there's never a possibility of getting shut out.
With 30 plays, I don't have to remember which race(s) I liked the most because my wager on the paper will show me that in the way I'm playing the race.

In the event, I, want to box 4 horses in an exacta, and I've already printed the tickets and one of them is late scratched, if he is one of my key horses, I will just go to the machine and cancel my ticket and get a voucher back. I've played enough races to know when the value has been removed from a wager.

In my opinion, you HAVE to be a good handicapper to do this, but the best wager in all of racing is a 1/w4/w5 horse trifecta key wheel. That means I will put my horse to win, use 4 others in the race to run 2nd, and then those same 4 plus one more in the show spot. If it's a horse I like a lot, but don't love, I will go 4/1/5 if at least 2 of those horses in the 2nd slot are longshots in the 20/1 more range. It's one of the few hedges I do at racing.

If you do the math, the 1 w4/w5 in a 10-horse field, provided you win, you have HALF the field to run second, then 60% of the field to run 3rd. Those are strong numbers. If a person can't pick the winner and then strong contenders among the rest of the field, they should be doing a different hobby. You can do a .50 box like this for $ 10.00 or a $ 1.00 tri like this for
$ 20.00 and I'm a guy who likes to hit the repeat ticket button.

Yes, the ear is a sign of a racehorse. They should be straight up/slanted forward, then when the horse means business or is running hard they should be almost flat back towards the neck. With the ears pinned back, it shows the horse is exerting maximum effort.

Again dp, good questions and good comments. Hope I'm giving you little morsels to think about that might help you.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Something my friends and I have always struggled with is identifying live Euro shippers on the turf especially on Breeder's Cup day with the enormous fields...I'm not talking about the 2-1 shots with Ryan Moore but the 12-1 or more that are live that always seem to hit the board or win that mess up our tri boxes or pick 4's...any insight or tips on how to come up with these not just on Breeder's Cup day but in general? The racing forms just don't give you much information on the Euro shippers. I grew up 25 minutes from Fonner and still visit frequently...I was at Pimlico for the Preakness when Rachel Alexandra won it, what a great atmosphere...enjoyed reading your thoughts on this topic so keep it going!

Hampton, I'm going to have to somewhat renege on what I said in my earlier response. We're 10 months away from the Breeder's Cup and a lot of stuff can happen before that time. We don't know how things are going to shake out in this world.

If you want to ring this bell again, say a week before the Breeder's Cup I can give you some useful information. What happens many times in the leadup to the BC, is trainers in Europe tend to bring in chiropractors for some of their horses, a LOT of them have throat surgeries, and that can change a really good horse into a great horse. I typically don't get that report until about a week before the BC.

One relatively recent trend I do know is Aiden O'Brien taking over horses from Harold Hockenberry have had huge jump-ups in the BC. O'Brien has also ridden Pierre Boudot rather than Ryan Moore or Frankie Dettori. Those 3 jockeys were in the same race and Moore and Dettori ran 2-3 while Boudot sat on the winner at 70/1. Probably not a coincidence.

Another European guy, James Fanshawe rides Boudot with a lot of success.

I'm actually handicapping a couple of tracks for Friday, so I'm gonna have to slow down a bit on posting in here until I get them done later.

It's possible I'll jump back on this thread in a couple of weeks and give you some US guys who are really good on the turf besides Brown, Mandella, etc.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Something my friends and I have always struggled with is identifying live Euro shippers on the turf especially on Breeder's Cup day with the enormous fields...I'm not talking about the 2-1 shots with Ryan Moore but the 12-1 or more that are live that always seem to hit the board or win that mess up our tri boxes or pick 4's...any insight or tips on how to come up with these not just on Breeder's Cup day but in general? The racing forms just don't give you much information on the Euro shippers. I grew up 25 minutes from Fonner and still visit frequently...I was at Pimlico for the Preakness when Rachel Alexandra won it, what a great atmosphere...enjoyed reading your thoughts on this topic so keep it going!

What type, and for how much, would you and your buddies typically make during the BC?

 

[HamptonHusker]

What type, and for how much, would you and your buddies typically make during the BC?

It really depends on the year...We normally box 7 horse tris and play pick 4s all day Friday and Saturday during the Breeder's Cup...This year we really struggled mainly because of the turf races that I was asking about...we don't bet a lot, we just do it to get together and have a couple beers and have fun...normally the same 4 or 5 guys every year....the $.50 tri for 7 horses is $105 but split up between a few guys it really isn't all that expensive...we also play the Pick 4 with larger tickets and try to find a single somewhere and then go deeper in the races we aren't so sure about...2 or 3 years ago this approach worked VERY well when we were at the Horseshoe in Council Bluffs, but like I said this last year we were always one horse off it seemed...we still had fun but we didn't cash very many tickets!

 

[dpnavy]

dp, I seem to be on a roll today, so I'll throw another post your way. This one will involve what is called the Cornell Collar.

If you're not familiar with it, and 99% of horseplayers haven't, it's a different type of bridle that can, in some cases, really improve the way certain horses run. No doubt, you've seen a lot of horses running really well, and then all of a sudden they just literally stop running. There can be a lot of reasons for this, but the main one is they have had a palate displacement. What that means is that all of a sudden that horse has his airway blocked by his tongue, similar to swallowing their tongue. Scares the hell out of them.

In the early 2000s, someone invented the Cornell Collar and it stops horses from getting palate displacement when they run. A trainer has to have a vet approve the use of the Collar, and once the horse begins to use that Collar they have to continue to wear it while racing, until the vet signs off on it being taken off.

A Cornell Collar is NOT legal in NY and PA. And it is legal in a lot of racing venues, including Fonner Park where you go to watch and wager on horses.

There are a handful of trainers at Fonner Park that do use the Cornell Collar. Generally, if you buy a program, down at the bottom it will say, # 2,
# 5, for example, use a Cornell Collar.

Now in this public forum, I can't tell you which trainers use it to their advantage because that's not what I'm gonna do in this thread. Just take a peek next time Fonner starts and see which trainers use them and which ones don't then if you like, keep track. it might put some money in your pocket.

It does NOT mean that horse today will run well, it just means this trainer is using a legal device to "try" to improve his horse's chances.

Interesting on the collar. Now, we can get into blinkers, I think I know the basic idea is to keep the horses attention forward! You and dinglefritz have way more knowledge in actual horses than I do so its educational for me.
Yes, the names of some of the local horse people I remember hearing such as Jim Cranwell, a person who knew him on the horse side told m that he was very straight up guy!

Do you pay attention to the so called "barn" money. Does it go first or late? A Vet friend, who my wife and I did some business with a few yrs back, as we talked about Fonner Park, said, "heck I can't go without someone wanting, certain medicines!! wink, wink! And at Fonner,123, we know da delicate situation a few yrs back. Haha No names!! I use it myself, Dr ordered of course! Horses have pain! Comment to your pleasure! DP

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Interesting on the collar. Now, we can get into blinkers, I think I know the basic idea is to keep the horses attention forward! You and dinglefritz have way more knowledge in actual horses than I do so its educational for me.
Yes, the names of some of the local horse people I remember hearing such as Jim Cranwell, a person who knew him on the horse side told m that he was very straight up guy!

Do you pay attention to the so called "barn" money. Does it go first or late? A Vet friend, who my wife and I did some business with a few yrs back, as we talked about Fonner Park, said, "heck I can't go without someone wanting, certain medicines!! wink, wink! And at Fonner,123, we know da delicate situation a few yrs back. Haha No names!! I use it myself, Dr ordered of course! Horses have pain! Comment to your pleasure! DP

Generally, there are 5 types of blinkers, and they all serve a different purposes.

The most popular is the French cup, those pretty much force the horse to look straight ahead.

There's also a Cheater cup. It's basically transparent and doesn't serve any purpose other than giving the horse a psychological boost.

There's a semi-cup that allows the horse to see about half the racetrack.

And a full cup that has small holes on the bottom which allow the horse to see competitors to either side.

The last one is an Extension Cup which is used to basically block off the horse from being able to see one side of the track. In other words, if you want a nervous horse to hug the rail, you put on an Extension Cup and the horse can be running on the rail and not even realize it.

By the way, a horse has what is called monocular vision. That means they can see 357 degrees. They see completely around themselves except for 3 degrees directly over their tail.

I could give one shit about barn money. On smaller circuits, it's the most used to actually manipulate the odds. If I'm playing a track, which I don't, that can have the mutual odds manipulated by a handful of people betting a couple of grand on the race, I'm at the wrong track.

Let's say you like the #5 horse and he's 12/1 in the morning line, and as a trainer, you KNOW this horse is ready. Then you have the morning line favorite at 5/2 who is gonna get a lot of the money anyhow.

Say you go to the window at a small track like Fonner and you pluck down
$ 2,000.00 to win on the favorite. Now you're looking at probably a 3/5 or 2/5 horse. All of a sudden the crowd is thinking of "barn money". Meanwhile, that #5 horse you like is suddenly 40/1. The money keeps rolling in on that heavy favorite because of all this "barn money". About 2 minutes to post the guy goes to the window cashes the $ 2K ticket and puts another couple hundred on the horse he really likes and winds up getting 25/1.

In this day and age of computer wagering and all the video in every part of the facilities (minus the restrooms), a guy has to be pretty stupid to try it, yet, they do. When the track pulls them into the security office, things can get pretty serious pretty quickly. Desperate people can do desperate things without considering the consequences.

Jorge Navarro, a trainer on the East Coast was having a grand old time winning about 40% of his starts and being boastful on video. His smile disappeared when he was just sentenced to 5 years in the penitentiary.

In this technological world we live in, trying to beat the system may work a time or two, but bean counters, and guys who do this for a living will catch them. A lot of guys have gotten some hard lessons and deservedly so, you can do things right and still make money at this sport.

The sport has enough black eyes as it is.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Not a lot of experience at playing the ponies but 3 things stood out to me with Aksarben, the only track I ever went to.

in 1990 I was a very young newlywed, and my wife and I had a cat that had just broke his leg the day before and the vet wanted $150 to fix it, we were broke AF and were considering putting him down....we went to Aksarben with my wifes grandpa and he put down a few bucks on a long shot that paid out, you guessed it, $150(ish) he immediately gave us that money and said save your cat. We did.

Fast forward a few years and I was there with some buddies and we found a program on the ground in the second race that had whoever dropped that programs "winners" circled for that days races. We bet everyone, don't remember how may there were, maybe 8???? We won all but one race. True story...but at a few bucks per we paid for our beers, didn't make anything.

Lastly, I loved it when they shut it down because I lived in Millard at the time and me and my mountain bike buds would stop and crush a 12 pack in the stands for years on our rides back from the old Market on our mountain bikes. Had the whole place to ourselves..haha. Good times.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Interesting on the collar. Now, we can get into blinkers, I think I know the basic idea is to keep the horses attention forward! You and dinglefritz have way more knowledge in actual horses than I do so its educational for me.
Yes, the names of some of the local horse people I remember hearing such as Jim Cranwell, a person who knew him on the horse side told m that he was very straight up guy!

Do you pay attention to the so called "barn" money. Does it go first or late? A Vet friend, who my wife and I did some business with a few yrs back, as we talked about Fonner Park, said, "heck I can't go without someone wanting, certain medicines!! wink, wink! And at Fonner,123, we know da delicate situation a few yrs back. Haha No names!! I use it myself, Dr ordered of course! Horses have pain! Comment to your pleasure! DP

dp, so you wanna talk medication at the racetracks? Okay. Remember, I'm not gonna name names in this thread and I don't want to be negative towards living people, so I gave myself a pass on my Ramon Flores story earlier.

Everybody knows about phenylbutazone (bute) and furosemide (Lasix).

Bute's kinda like a strong aspirin for general aches and pain. Some/most horses can't do without it. Lasix is for different reasons and sometimes horses really respond to it. The problem is it masks many illicit drugs.

There are bronchial dilators, Epogen, and cobra venom, and every week there are new, designer drugs used on horses that there has not been a test designed to identify. Like I said in the very first post I made about horse racing, it is a sport of drugs, equipment, and intent.

Vets are critical to the running of horses. Without legal, proper medications most of these horses couldn't run as often as they do. As long as everyone is operating under the same rules it's all good, but that's not the case.

Many veterinarians have become nothing more than medication dispensaries. In some cases, if an owner or trainer wants a horse to be administered a certain medication, and the vet doesn't believe it necessary, they will just employ a different vet who will use that medication.

There was a vet at Churchill Downs, Dr. Harthill, who was known as "Derby Doc." He used to scare the piss out of trainers. He could start and stop a horse with what he carried around in his little medicine bag.

On the big Kentucky Derby day, owners and trainers were scared to death of what he may have injected their horse(s) with. He was a legend. That's all I'm gonna say about race day drugs.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Not a lot of experience at playing the ponies but 3 things stood out to me with Aksarben, the only track I ever went to.

in 1990 I was a very young newlywed, and my wife and I had a cat that had just broke his leg the day before and the vet wanted $150 to fix it, we were broke AF and were considering putting him down....we went to Aksarben with my wifes grandpa and he put down a few bucks on a long shot that paid out, you guessed it, $150(ish) he immediately gave us that money and said save your cat. We did.

Fast forward a few years and I was there with some buddies and we found a program on the ground in the second race that had whoever dropped that programs "winners" circled for that days races. We bet everyone, don't remember how may there were, maybe 8???? We won all but one race. True story...but at a few bucks per we paid for our beers, didn't make anything.

Lastly, I loved it when they shut it down because I lived in Millard at the time and me and my mountain bike buds would stop and crush a 12 pack in the stands for years on our rides back from the old Market on our mountain bikes. Had the whole place to ourselves..haha. Good times.

First of all, what you're saying is you owe horse racing a debt of gratitude. LOL

Secondly, it appears your money management skills at the track are lacking. LOL

If I'd have known it was gonna come to that, I'd a bought you guys a 12-pack assuming you could all prove you were old enough....Not likely, huh?

I really disliked the fact they shut AkSarBen down. My wife and I loved to drive to Omaha and play the ponies clear back in the early 80s. It was a beautiful facility, probably one of the 4-5 top tracks in the country. I've been to all the big tracks, and other than Del Mar, and Santa Anita, AK was as good as it gets. It is not historic like Churchill Downs, Saratoga in NY, or Belmont in New York, in terms of top-notch facilities, it put them to shame. Anyhow.

(Gotta keep this short, I think you called my long posts windy.) LOL

 

[dinglefritz]

dp, so you wanna talk medication at the racetracks? Okay. Remember, I'm not gonna name names in this thread and I don't want to be negative towards living people, so I gave myself a pass on my Ramon Flores story earlier.

Everybody knows about phenylbutazone (bute) and furosemide (Lasix).

Bute's kinda like a strong aspirin for general aches and pain. Some/most horses can't do without it. Lasix is for different reasons and sometimes horses really respond to it. The problem is it masks many illicit drugs.

There are bronchial dilators, Epogen, and cobra venom, and every week there are new, designer drugs used on horses that there has not been a test designed to identify. Like I said in the very first post I made about horse racing, it is a sport of drugs, equipment, and medication.

Vets are critical to the running of horses. Without legal, proper medications most of these horses couldn't run as often as they do. As long as everyone is operating under the same rules it's all good, but that's not the case.

Many veterinarians have become nothing more than medication dispensaries. In some cases, if an owner or trainer wants a horse to be administered a certain medication, and the vet doesn't believe it necessary, they will just employ a different vet who will use that medication.

There was a vet at Churchill Downs, Dr. Harthill, who was known as "Derby Doc." He used to scare the piss out of trainers. He could start and stop a horse with what he carried around in his little medicine bag.

On the big Kentucky Derby day, owners and trainers were scared to death of what he may have injected their horse(s) with. He was a legend. That's all I'm gonna say about race day drugs.

I know some race track vets😉. Are you sure you’re not autistic? Damn man you’ve got the goods.

 

[redwine65]

when I was around 11, I went to aksarben alot with a friend and his dad...I would always bet on jl lively and sam maple, and do pretty well

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

It really depends on the year...We normally box 7 horse tris and play pick 4s all day Friday and Saturday during the Breeder's Cup...This year we really struggled mainly because of the turf races that I was asking about...we don't bet a lot, we just do it to get together and have a couple beers and have fun...normally the same 4 or 5 guys every year....the $.50 tri for 7 horses is $105 but split up between a few guys it really isn't all that expensive...we also play the Pick 4 with larger tickets and try to find a single somewhere and then go deeper in the races we aren't so sure about...2 or 3 years ago this approach worked VERY well when we were at the Horseshoe in Council Bluffs, but like I said this last year we were always one horse off it seemed...we still had fun but we didn't cash very many tickets!

This year the BC is at Santa Anita. Last year it was at Keeneland in Kentucky.

Quick question??? You do know Keeneland has 2 different finish lines?

There is a regular finish line and then there is an alternative finish line at the 1/16th pole.

The alternative finish line is for all races 7F and 1 1/16th mile.

I haven't talked about Turf races yet, but most Turf races are won based on the geometry of the different racetracks.

Now about you and your buddies. It appears you have a handicapper or two that need a lot of improvement, or they implement a handicapping aspect that just doesn't ring true. I've missed races before, but I've never boxed 7 horses in a tri. I may have boxed 5 horses 2 times in 50 years.

I'm not saying what you guys do is a bad idea, because you guys have had some earlier success.

Suggestion? Why not try to have yourself, and then each other guy SEPARATELY handicap the race and then compile all 5 winners among yourselves and assign them according to how many guys like a particular horse? Of course, probably all of you will agree on a high-powered, elite turf horse from Europe, so that should be your single.

Then do the same thing with the horse that has the second most consensus. And then the 3rd most and then the 4th most. Any race where there is that overpowering European turf horse when guys are giving their pick would include that Euro horse and one other horse.

You may find you guys don't even like 7 horses. You're just throwing them in but maybe without sound reasoning. Not dogging you here, just giving you some food for thought.

Then have you and all the guys THROW OUT 2 horses each that you just don't think to have a chance to fit into the tri. If, by some chance, you almost all agree on those 2 horses, then throw out 2 more.

Let me know if you want any more ideas on this topic. Again, you do you.

When you box 7 horses in a tri. There is one winning combination. There will also be 126 losing combinations on that play.