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OT: The Kentucky Derby

Just saw the final workouts this morning for some Derby runners. Sierra Leone and Domestic Product (Chad Brown's duo) worked 5F in 1:00.1 and galloped out 7F in 1:26.1. Both horses are built like tanks. Domestic Product held his own in the workout and seems to progressing well. The horse has run in some slow paced races. I don't think his Beyers reflect what he's capable of. I don't have him in my top 6. If he hits the board it will be at a big price, Sierra Leone has that low head carriage and really drops it lower when he stretches out. A P Indy and Gun Runner (Sierra Leone's dad) both had that same low head style.

Catching Freedom and Encino (Brad Cox) worked 5F in 59.2. Catching Freedom is on the small side but has a very efficient running motion. I thought Encino held his own in the workout and was full of himself. There was some thought he might not run in the Derby but after this workout I think he's definitely in. I don't like the quick turnaround (3 weeks) for the horse and will not play him. I think he could be a factor later this summer (Saratoga) and into the Fall. A big, gangly type body,
Rather than tagging my earlier post # 28, I'm tagging this post to let you, and the others know I just added the Post Positions drawn for the Derby as well as updating the current Morning Lines. FWIW

If you just refer back to that earlier post, you will see the added changes.
 
It has been difficult enough to select a Kentucky Derby winner in years past in which there are 20 horses entered and mayhem is all but a part of the race.

Nowadays?

We have a field of 20 horses in which 17 of them have all but 6 career starts or less.

It is a simple reality of which the game is moving nowadays with horses making fewer and fewer starts, and makes this race even all the more difficult to project and handicap.
 
Some thoughts on the Derby draw:
Dornoch (post 1) was going to be sent whatever post he got.
Sierra Leone (post 2) will at least save ground going around the first turn as he settles near the back of the pack.
Catching Freedom in post 4 will also be able to save ground with his last closing charge.
Pletcher didn't seem too concerned about Fierceness (post 17). He thought Fierceness had enough tactical speed to attain a good position. He liked the fact that he was outside the major speed horses (Dornoch and Track Phantom (post 12).
I thought Just Steel (6), Honor Marie (7) and Just A Touch (8) drew fine.
Domestic Product (post 15) didn't draw bad considering he has a a mid-pack type running style.
The 2 horses that didn't fare well were Stronghold (18) and Resilience (19). Will they have to be sent hard to find a good position?
I'm surprised Endlessly (post 14) is in the field. I have not been impressed with his workouts and would perform much better in the American Turf race instead.

Horses can be scratched up till 9 A.M Friday.
 
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If Mugatu somehow gets in, he’ll have the worst resume I can ever remember for a KD starter.
I think you are probably right.

A mere 14 points in the new-fangled points system which I'm still confused how he accumulated a single point and was 42nd on the list of points leaders.

His 3 'Derby' prep races he was never a factor and was 181/1 in the Bluegrass in which he ran by far his best race to date and was beaten by 7 1/2 lengths.

There has to be at least 100 3 year old colts better than this guy. :oops:
 
Some thoughts on the Derby draw:
Dornoch (post 1) was going to be sent whatever post he got.
Sierra Leone (post 2) will at least save ground going around the first turn as he settles near the back of the pack.
Catching Freedom in post 4 will also be able to save ground with his last closing charge.
Pletcher didn't seem too concerned about Fierceness (post 17). He thought Fierceness had enough tactical speed to attain a good position. He liked the fact that he was outside the major speed horses (Dornoch and Track Phantom (post 12).
I thought Just Steel (6), Honor Marie (7) and Just A Touch (8) drew fine.
Domestic Product (post 15) didn't draw bad considering he has a a mid-pact type running style.
The 2 horses that didn't fare well were Stronghold (18) and Resilience (19). Will they have to be sent hard to find a good position?
I'm surprised Endlessly (post 14) is in the field. I have not been impressed with his workouts and would perform much better in the American Turf race instead.

Horses can be scratched up till 9 A.M Friday.
A brief history of how some Post Positions have fared in the Derby over the last nearly 40 years:
Ferdinand won in 1986 from Post 1. Real Quiet, in 1998, (a nose short in the Belmont of being a Triple Crown winner), won from Post 3.
'Since 1987 the combined record of those in Posts 1,2,3 is 1-108.

Fierceness, this years Derby favorite drew Post 17.
In the history of the Derby, how many horses have won in Post 17? ZERO.

Generally, the preferred posts are 5-15. Since 2000, 12 of 24 Derby winners were in Post 13 and higher.

In the Derby, the turns account for 40% of the race. If the width of a horse and jockey is 4', each path around the track accounts for running 25' farther than the horse inside of it. If a horse is 6 wide, he will travel 150' farther over the distance, than the horse on the rail.

What happens this year has no relationship to what has historically happened. But, it does give you pause.
 
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You are a savant. The detail you go into amazes me. I’ve read a fair amount on herd dynamics and have used some of that in a rudimentary manner. Hell I used it some when I used to hunt deer. When the videos came out explaining equine postures and mannerisms it was an aha moment for me. I saw those as a kid breaking colts but didn’t realize the significance. I pity some of those poor horses who were subjected to a 13 year old”trainer”.
I'm hoping by the end of the day to have the personality traits of the horses in the field, with a more indepth post of legitimate contenders, and a shorter version of those considered longshots. That post will develop into a large and long post because I'm just going to continue to tag that same post and keep adding to it as I add another horse. That way, all horses, and their personality types will be in one long post, for comparative purposes.

Anyone, who doesn't have an interest in one of the most important parts of the entire Derby race is free to pass on reading the strengths and weaknesses of each horse amd is welcome to pass on reading it. I'll try to do a fairly extensive review of those horses that have been mentioned by the guys on here who have named a horse they like and are considering wagering on. Since I won't make my wagering decision until Friday, I think I can be objective in what the analysis says to give each prospective bettor as much useful information as possible.

Tomorrow, I hope to do a version of which horses stand to benefit, be neutral, or negative if the track comes up muddy or sloppy.

Also, I wanted to do one post of the potential pace setters, stalkers, mid-runners, closers, and deep closers.

Lastly, I will do a separate post on the Derby jockeys riding certain horses, and if they tend to move the horse up (improve that horse in the Derby against the horses best career race), be primarily neutral, or potentially have the horse go backwards. Some of that information will surprise all of these horse players. That I guarantee.

Then maybe Friday, I'll make my last post about what I "think" might happen in this crap shoot, and maybe Saturday morning if a horse or two is scratched and if it alters the race at all.

If there's any topic about this race that I haven't covered, and you'd like me to take a look at it, let me know in the next day or so.

Unless, I come up with something else, That will be the end of my contribution on this year's Derby.
 
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I'm hoping by the end of the day to have the personality traits of the horses in the field, with a more indepth post of legitimate contenders, and a shorter version of those considered longshots. That post will develop into a large and long post because I'm just going to continue to tag that same post and keep adding to it as I add another horse. That way, all horses, and their personality types will be in one long post, for comparative purposes.

Anyone, who doesn't have an interest in one of the most important parts of the entire Derby race is free to pass on reading the strengths and weaknesses of each horse amd is welcome to pass on reading it. I'll try to do a fairly extensive review of those horses that have been mentioned by the guys on here who have named a horse they like and are considering wagering on. Since I won't make my wagering decision until Friday, I think I can be objective in what the analysis says to give each prospective bettor as much useful information as possible.

Tomorrow, I hope to do a version of which horses stand to benefit, be neutral, or negative if the track comes up muddy or sloppy.

Also, I wanted to do one post of the potential pace setters, stalkers, mid-runners, closers, and deep closers.

Lastly, I will do a separate post on the Derby jockeys riding certain horses, and if they tend to move the horse up (improve that horse in the Derby against the horses best career race), be primarily neutral, or potentially have the horse go backwards. Some of that information will surprise all of these horse players. That I guarantee.

Then maybe Friday, I'll make my last post about what I "think" might happen in this crap shoot, and maybe Saturday morning if a horse or two is scratched and if it alters the race at all.

If there's any topic about this race that I haven't covered, and you'd like me to take a look at it, let me know in the next day or so.

Unless, I come up with something else, That will be the end of my contribution on this year's Derby.
I continue to be amazed by your detail.
 
You are a savant. The detail you go into amazes me. I’ve read a fair amount on herd dynamics and have used some of that in a rudimentary manner. Hell I used it some when I used to hunt deer. When the videos came out explaining equine postures and mannerisms it was an aha moment for me. I saw those as a kid breaking colts but didn’t realize the significance. I pity some of those poor horses who were subjected to a 13 year old”trainer”.
PERSONALITY TRAITS OF THE DERBY HORSES. I will list them beginning with betting favorites according to the M/L.
FIERCENESS, 5/2. Post Position 17. Jockey Johnny Velasquez.

Has a natural ability to regulate his emotional ability. Allows him to conserve and distribute his energy evenly. Has an acute awareness of his surroundings, including track surface condition. He has the ability to absorb the environment. He has a competitive forward aspect and sensory efficiency which allows him to press into open spaces with purpose.
Mentally, Fierceness has an aptitude for hitting a "cruise control" mental gear with his high rhythms of GHD (Group Herd Dynamic) which allows him to conserve mental energy and keeps him "pounce ready" in a strategic manner. His competitive nature is undeniable, which seeks out the vulnerable aspects of his competitors. In the battle of psychological warfare, he is equipped to go to war against any of his rivals.

He is showing signs that his IHD (Individual Herd Dynamic) is reaching maturity. This is a growth pattern which has not be encumbered by any additional equipment, which would interrupt his sensory ability. His Rear Sensory Zone (Zone 4) has very good feel interpretations allowing him to respond to hindmost pressure with efficient communication between his forward and rear sensory.

VULNERABILITIES: The depth-perception portion of the sensory egg, which is both up and down (from the ground up) and in and out from the body, can be compromised from from certain environmental and peer pressure. There is a potential of protracted filtering when engaging multiple stimuli. With added duration, he tends to tuck-in his emotional energy. This changes his physical expression from a forward "into space" motion to a more "up and down" motion compromising stride length and requiring more energy to cover the same distance. This burns excess energy rapidly and mitigates total duration of competitive nature and shortens competitive distance. There is an underlying risk of accumulating stress when competing. This causes him to withdraw his placement in a developing heirarchy position.

When he feels excessive peer pressures early it will draw a lot of emotional energy from his IHD and into the aspects of the GHD, this is Fierceness overcompensating for the loss of feel in depth perception. This is only detectable when in motion. Even if he recovers, he will have exhausted his energy reserves leaving him subject to mental fatigue. Self preservation instincts then kick in causing him to seek herd cover, which is not uncommon of a high level horse.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: His IHD has developed significantly faster than his GHD. He's not an aggressive antagonist in total performances in all instances. In a 10 furlong race the psychological battles can be in bunches, or not at all, depending on the situational chaos as the time. Consider this like you or I driving 2 miles of different circumstances such as road conditions, weather and traffic. How well he handles race conditions will determine much.

HUMAN FACTOR: The jockeys ability to anticipate events happening and about to happen are key to his performance. His post position should be of no consequence, early physical position will prove less impactful than finding an early natural rhythm motion.

I'm hoping you will be able to read between the lines of what this man is trying to convey here.....

SIERRA LEONE, 3/1, jockey Tyler Gafflione.

STRENGTHS: When he winds himself up into IHD, he has a strong capacity to follow through. He has the ability to "run into space" consistently especially when there is open space in front of him. The times that he has encountered horses he has shown a willingness to join the fray. He has a fast cycling natural rhythm, and the earmarks of a high degree of emotional energy. He has a dial up and dial in type of determination to push it forward. His competitive nature cannot be questioned.
He has the type of personality that will not defer to others in battle. To this point, he has been able to shed peer pressure.
He has the make up of a horse that can run from any position, as long as it is clear in front of him and doesn't interfere with his space awareness. In other words, he can take a punch and shake it off.

VULNERABILITIES: He has inefficiency in the area of Group Herd Dynamics within the body of the race itself. His Sensory Lead Changes are delayed when "cruising" with other horses and when the hammer down stages of IHD, because things are happening a lot faster, and things can get bumpy. GHD has to do with environment, depth-perception and self-awareness, and he has evidence of nagging delays with those areas. It takes him some time out of the gate to find his natural rhythm, as a result of outsourcing because he looks forward to questions that he can't yet answer. He tends to let things play out around him before he settles into a purposeful mental cadence. Because of this, he is environmentally dependent.

He has a reckless expression which occurs when he is in IHD combat mode which is a byproduct of his sensory lead change delays. He doesn't clear the space around him as quickly as is needed and that causes him to lose forward efficiency.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: He has the capacity to compete and the will be competitive, but he does have some chinks in his armor. His biggest antagonists are not his competitors, it is himself and his ineffeciency to be phyically efficient from start to finish. I lean to him having to outrun himself, and in the Derby, this is more than what he has experienced. He tries to overcompensate for his lack of sensory through movement, but his sensory lead change delays combat that. He has the ability to get the 10 furlongs but his mental fatigue could prove to be his enemy. This causes him to grind a little harder and dig a little deeper. If he can keep from leaking too much energy, he can compete with any horse in this field.

HUMAN FACTOR: The jockey would do well to not have a predetermine place where he wants that horse to be early in the race. The thought of him having to press early will be counterproductive. Horses can sense the slightest urgency or anxiety coming from the saddle. He would do well to go moment to moment. The post position will play a role in the jockey to bridge his GHD and the interpretation demands that follow. I worry about him emptying his lunchbox early then having nothing left later for a snack. What he does after 100 seconds will be determined by what he does in the first 15 seconds of the race. To look at distance from a horse's point of view, it is about duration. How long can the horse sustain mental and emotional focus.

CATCHING FREEDOM: 8/1. Jockey is Flavian Prat.

STRENGHTS: He has a naturally strong IHD and works hard to be patient because his natural instinct is to engage. This allows him to sort the environment within the GHD right out of the gate. He is a very physical horse and a wealth of emotional energy in which to draw from. This 3 year old season he is becoming a better version of himself.

VULNERABILITIES: My concern is in his sensory efficiency. His GHD goes into drive right out of the gate as he wants to know where am I, and what is going on around me. His Sensory Lead Changes are quite delayed and sticky. This leads to ground loss.

I'm discontinuing any further personality profiles.
 
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PERSONALITY TRAITS OF THE DERBY HORSES. I will list them beginning with betting favorites according to the M/L.
FIERCENESS, 5/2. Post Position 17. Jockey Johnny Velasquez.

Has a natural ability to regulate his emotional ability. Allows him to conserve and distribute his energy evenly. Has an acute awareness of his surroundings, including track surface condition. He has the ability to absorb the environment. He has a competitive forward aspect and sensory efficiency which allows him to press into open spaces with purpose.
Mentally, Fierceness has an aptitude for hitting a "cruise control" mental gear with his high rhythms of GHD (Group Herd Dynamic) which allows him to conserve mental energy and keeps him "pounce ready" in a strategic manner. His competitive nature is undeniable, which seeks out the vulnerable aspects of his competitors. In the battle of psychological warfare, he is equipped to go to war against any of his rivals.

He is showing signs that his IHD (Individual Herd Dynamic) is reaching maturity. This is a growth pattern which has not be encumbered by any additional equipment, which would interrupt his sensory ability. His Rear Sensory Zone (Zone 4) has very good feel interpretations allowing him to respond to hindmost pressure with efficient communication between his forward and rear sensory.

VULNERABILITIES: The depth-perception portion of the sensory egg, which is both up and down (from the ground up) and in and out from the body, can be compromised from from certain environmental and peer pressure. There is a potential of protracted filtering when engaging multiple stimuli. With added duration, he tends to tuck-in his emotional energy. This changes his physical expression from a forward "into space" motion to a more "up and down" motion compromising stride length and requiring more energy to cover the same distance. This burns excess energy rapidly and mitigates total duration of competitive nature and shortens competitive distance. There is an underlying risk of accumulating stress when competing. This causes him to withdraw his placement in a developing heirarchy position.

When he feels excessive peer pressures early it will draw a lot of emotional energy from his IHD and into the aspects of the GHD, this is Fierceness overcompensating for the loss of feel in depth perception. This is only detectable when in motion. Even if he recovers, he will have exhausted his energy reserves leaving him subject to mental fatigue. Self preservation instincts then kick in causing him to seek herd cover, which is not uncommon of a high level horse.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: His IHD has developed significantly faster than his GHD. He's not an aggressive antagonist in total performances in all instances. In a 10 furlong race the psychological battles can be in bunches, or not at all, depending on the situational chaos as the time. Consider this like you or I driving 2 miles of different circumstances such as road conditions, weather and traffic. How well he handles race conditions will determine much.

HUMAN FACTOR: The jockeys ability to anticipate events happening and about to happen are key to his performance. His post position should be of no consequence, early physical position will prove less impactful than finding an early natural rhythm motion.

I'm hoping you will be able to read between the lines of what this man is trying to convey here.....
And I thought Sigmund Freud died 85 years ago. You're wasting your time if you plan to do 20 of these write-ups. You already know who you're going to bet. Get to the chase.
 
PERSONALITY TRAITS OF THE DERBY HORSES. I will list them beginning with betting favorites according to the M/L.
FIERCENESS, 5/2. Post Position 17. Jockey Johnny Velasquez.

Has a natural ability to regulate his emotional ability. Allows him to conserve and distribute his energy evenly. Has an acute awareness of his surroundings, including track surface condition. He has the ability to absorb the environment. He has a competitive forward aspect and sensory efficiency which allows him to press into open spaces with purpose.
Mentally, Fierceness has an aptitude for hitting a "cruise control" mental gear with his high rhythms of GHD (Group Herd Dynamic) which allows him to conserve mental energy and keeps him "pounce ready" in a strategic manner. His competitive nature is undeniable, which seeks out the vulnerable aspects of his competitors. In the battle of psychological warfare, he is equipped to go to war against any of his rivals.

He is showing signs that his IHD (Individual Herd Dynamic) is reaching maturity. This is a growth pattern which has not be encumbered by any additional equipment, which would interrupt his sensory ability. His Rear Sensory Zone (Zone 4) has very good feel interpretations allowing him to respond to hindmost pressure with efficient communication between his forward and rear sensory.

VULNERABILITIES: The depth-perception portion of the sensory egg, which is both up and down (from the ground up) and in and out from the body, can be compromised from from certain environmental and peer pressure. There is a potential of protracted filtering when engaging multiple stimuli. With added duration, he tends to tuck-in his emotional energy. This changes his physical expression from a forward "into space" motion to a more "up and down" motion compromising stride length and requiring more energy to cover the same distance. This burns excess energy rapidly and mitigates total duration of competitive nature and shortens competitive distance. There is an underlying risk of accumulating stress when competing. This causes him to withdraw his placement in a developing heirarchy position.

When he feels excessive peer pressures early it will draw a lot of emotional energy from his IHD and into the aspects of the GHD, this is Fierceness overcompensating for the loss of feel in depth perception. This is only detectable when in motion. Even if he recovers, he will have exhausted his energy reserves leaving him subject to mental fatigue. Self preservation instincts then kick in causing him to seek herd cover, which is not uncommon of a high level horse.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: His IHD has developed significantly faster than his GHD. He's not an aggressive antagonist in total performances in all instances. In a 10 furlong race the psychological battles can be in bunches, or not at all, depending on the situational chaos as the time. Consider this like you or I driving 2 miles of different circumstances such as road conditions, weather and traffic. How well he handles race conditions will determine much.

HUMAN FACTOR: The jockeys ability to anticipate events happening and about to happen are key to his performance. His post position should be of no consequence, early physical position will prove less impactful than finding an early natural rhythm motion.

I'm hoping you will be able to read between the lines of what this man is trying to convey here.....

This has to be a joke. Horse is 3 for 5 lifetime, and has shown he needs things his way or he'll simply jog around the track.

Complete punt as he won't get an easy lead or easy trip.
 
And I thought Sigmund Freud died 85 years ago. You're wasting your time if you plan to do 20 of these write-ups. You already know who you're going to bet. Get to the chase.
LOL. Of course I don't know who I'm playing yet. I can't tell you who I'm playing, but I can tell you who I'm not playing.

There is such a thing as structuring my wagers.

So, you think I do this for me?? The notes I write for myself are in a lot different words than what I use here Capiche.

Honestly, since I'm retired I can waste my time anyway I chose, right?

Comments like the ones you made, make me want to forget this exercise, but its probably just as well if you just do you, and I'll just do me.

First of all, these horse personality profiles are not my work, okay? They only come from a guy who's done this entire life and knows more about the subject that you, I and everyone else on this board X's 100. If you don't think the personality and their ability to handle the stress of the Derby environment, it does. Any of us can pick Big Brown, Pharoah, etc, but I play exotics where the real money is.

It's like betting parlays on college football, when one poster, who shall remain nameless, told me it couldn't be done, but I proved that it could be done the first year I tried last year. I'm really not the kind of guy that people tell what to do, in fact, I may do all 20 of them.
 
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I continue to be amazed by your detail.
dingle, the horse profiles are not my work. I rely on the guy who has proven himself as the cutting edge expert in this unique field. I'm just trying to shorten his profile down in hopes that it clarifies things for myself any others who may be interested in knowing if a horse is likely or not to handle the stress of the Derby.

You've worked with horses for many years, anyone who doesn't understand Individual or Herd Dynamics doesn't take into account how important it is. Some will poo poo it, and that's fine, I love having them in the mutuel pools.

Fvck, if we did personality traits of posters on this board, it would be some kind of entertaining. LOL
 
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This has to be a joke. Horse is 3 for 5 lifetime, and has shown he needs things his way or he'll simply jog around the track.

Complete punt as he won't get an easy lead or easy trip.
Welllllll, all you had to do is read between the lines to figure out that's what the guy is saying.

So great, you can toss him, that only leaves you 19 other horses to pick from. Go get 'em.

As far as this being a joke. Don't fvcking read it then, I didn't do this for your benefit.

Next up, I might even tell some more of my stories you love. Albiet, they are all true.
 
dingle, the horse profiles are not my work. I rely on the guy who has proven himself as the cutting edge expert in this unique field. I'm just trying to shorten his profile down in hopes that it clarifies things for myself any others who may be interested in knowing if a horse is likely or not to handle the stress of the Derby.

You've worked with horses for many years, anyone who doesn't understand Individual or Herd Dynamics doesn't take into account how important it is. Some will poo poo it, and that's fine, I love having them in the mutual pools.

Fvck, if we did personality traits of posters on this board, it would be some kind of entertaining. LOL
There’s not enough space on the internet for the profiles of posters on this board. The Chinese would just throw up there hands and say wtf
 
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LOL. Of course I don't know who I'm playing yet. I can't tell you who I'm playing, but I can tell you who I'm not playing.

There is such a thing as structuring my wagers.

So, you think I do this for me?? The notes I write for myself are in a lot different words than what I use here Capiche.

Honestly, since I'm retired I can waste my time anyway I chose, right?

Comments like the ones you made, make me want to forget this exercise, but its probably just as well if you just do you, and I'll just do me.

First of all, these horse personality profiles are not my work, okay? They only come from a guy who's done this entire life and knows more about the subject that you, I and everyone else on this board X's 100. If you don't think the personality and their ability to handle the stress of the Derby environment, it does. Any of us can pick Big Brown, Pharoah, etc, but I play exotics where the real money is.

It's like betting parlays on college football, when one poster, who shall remain nameless, told me it couldn't be done, but I proved that it could be done the first year I tried last year. I'm really not the kind of guy that people tell what to do.
Let's face it, probably half the people on this board only like to bet the Derby and are not regular horse players. They don't even understand what this guy is trying to say and probably don't really care.

Since you are a long-time bettor, you could easily provide a 1 or 2 sentence opinion on each horse in the field and whether they are win candidates and/or can be used underneath in exotics.

There are a million YouTube videos people on this board can view and hear the "experts" analysis of the race. I'm sure you have a core 4 or 5 horses you plan to play in exactas and tris. Like everyone else, you're trying to find those 2 or 3 possible longshots that provide good value and spice up the payoffs.
 
Welllllll, all you had to do is read between the lines to figure out that's what the guy is saying.

So great, you can toss him, that only leaves you 19 other horses to pick from. Go get 'em.

As far as this being a joke. Don't fvcking read it then, I didn't do this for your benefit.

Next up, I might even tell some more of my stories you love. Albiet, they are all true.

Nobody needs a diatribe of your losing picks.

It isn't that hard.

My guess is you'll have Sierra Leone with Catching Freedom and Just a Touch in some form or fashion, You might even include Encino as your longshot.

Nobody needs to hear about your opinion on every single horse, much less the psychology of the horse.

I wish you good luck next Saturday and hope all your tickets are winning tickets.
 
Let's face it, probably half the people on this board only like to bet the Derby and are not regular horse players. They don't even understand what this guy is trying to say and probably don't really care.

Since you are a long-time bettor, you could easily provide a 1 or 2 sentence opinion on each horse in the field and whether they are win candidates and/or can be used underneath in exotics.

There are a million YouTube videos people on this board can view and hear the "experts" analysis of the race. I'm sure you have a core 4 or 5 horses you plan to play in exactas and tris. Like everyone else, you're trying to find those 2 or 3 possible longshots that provide good value and spice up the payoffs.
Okay, let's look at it this way. NU football talk, for the most part is simmering down. There's a big race next Saturday that hundreds of thousands, and maybe millions of people have an interest in. If playing horses is what I do, there could be some value if I happen to get lucky, and yes, you know luck will play a huge part of the outcome.

Last year, and I will do so again, I did do a short capsule of what I thought of each horse, but I didn't do it until I had done the entire field. As I continue, without further back and forth from the latest inductee in my Ignore Hopper, Mr. Stove Temple, to post more and more on different elements of this race, it tends to solidify my thinking BEFORE I start to make decisions on which horse(s) I plan to play.

As an example, Sierra Leone is a legit contender who has been compromised by post position. Doesn't mean he can't still be part of it, but his job just got harder. The same with Resilence and Stronghold. Others were helped. I'm kind of methodical methods guy in that I never have a pre conceived idea of how the race will be ran or won until I do what I do.

As far as people watching the other experts, I care less about what any of them say, I've never had to rely on anyone in my life to tell me what I'm supposed to wager on. You're the same way, right Capiche? You don't need to know what I think to arrive at your decision. It's a bitch of a race to hit. But, if I'm gonna hit it, I want it to be worthwhile, not the peanuts I made last year. If I lose, no big deal, I'll just make the money back next week when some 12,500.00 maiden claimer wins and pays 80.00.

One race doesn't define anyone and certainly not a race like the Derby which is total chaos once that gate opens. A handful of the experts will look like true experts next Saturday night, the vast majority will look like they don't anything, and that's never true. It's the nature of what happens when you put something down on paper and get it wrong.

Look, I don't want to get in a pissing contest with anybody. If people want to read these posts, fine, if not, that's fine, too.
 
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Nobody needs a diatribe of your losing picks.

It isn't that hard.

My guess is you'll have Sierra Leone with Catching Freedom and Just a Touch in some form or fashion, You might even include Encino as your longshot.

Nobody needs to hear about your opinion on every single horse, much less the psychology of the horse.

I wish you good luck next Saturday and hope all your tickets are winning tickets.
I'll make one reply since you're in my Ignore Hopper.
When others don't want my opinion, they just ignore my comments then tell me WHO I'm gonna play?

In case you missed what I said earlier, I'm not doing this for your benefit. If others read what I say, that's up to them.

Since no one wants to hear about my opinion then one can assume you like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Just A Touch and maybe some Encino. I do not know who I'm playing, so how could you?

You're capable of making your own decisions, you should consider putting me on Ignore so you don't have to continue reading what I post. That's what I'd do. I'm just not sure you speak for the entire board when a couple thousand people read my initial posts in a few short days.
 
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Okay, let's look at it this way. NU football talk, for the most part is simmering down. There's a big race next Saturday that hundreds of thousands, and maybe millions of people have an interest in. If playing horses is what I do, there could be some value if I happen to get lucky, and yes, you know luck will play a huge part of the outcome.

Last year, and I will do so again, I did do a short capsule of what I thought of each horse, but I didn't do it until I had done the entire field. As I continue, without further back and forth from the latest inductee in my Ignore Hopper, Mr. Stove Temple,
to post more and more on different elements of this race, it tends to solidify my thinking BEFORE I start to make decisions on which horse(s) I plan to play.

As an example, Sierra Leone is a legit contender who has been compromised by post position. Doesn't mean he can't still be part of it, but his job just got harder. The same with Resilence and Stronghold. Others were helped. I'm kind of methodical methods guy in that I never have a pre conceived idea of how the race will be ran or won until I do what I do.

As far as people watching the other experts, I care less about what any of them say, I've never had to rely on anyone in my life to tell me what I'm supposed to wager on. You're the same way, right Capiche? You don't need to know what I think to arrive at your decision. It's a bitch of a race to hit. But, if I'm gonna hit it, I want it to be worthwhile, not the peanuts I made last year.
If I lose, no big deal, I'll just make the money back next week when some 12,500.00 maiden claimer wins and pays 80.00.

One race doesn't define anyone and certainly not a race like the Derby which is total chaos once that gate opens. A handful of the experts will look like true experts next Saturday night, the vast majority will look like they don't anything, and that's never true. It's the nature of what happens when you put something down on paper and get it wrong.

Look, I don't want to get in a pissing contest with anybody. If people want to read these posts, fine, if not, that's fine, too.
The only reason I'm here is no one on the OSU site (OSU alum) wants to talk horse racing. It's sad. In Columbus, there are only two discussion topics, football/spring football, with recruiting thrown in. I appreciate you started this thread.
 
The only reason I'm here is no one on the OSU site (OSU alum) wants to talk horse racing. It's sad. In Columbus, there are only two discussion topics, football/spring football, with recruiting thrown in. I appreciate you started this thread.
Capiche, it's all good. The longest part of what i do is the horse profiles, because I think they are important. Just like the probable pace scenario, which horses may benefit or be compromised by post, the track condition, and yes, even the jockey.

"Back in the day", the best Performance Numbers by Derby Winners were routinely 0, -1,-2,-3. So to be competitive a horse really had to have run a 2 or so in a prep race to win, barring pace meltdowns, track conditions, etc.

But, since the exclusion of Lasix, the winning Derby horse the last 3 years has slowed to 1.25, 1.25, and 1.50. So, the horses don't have to run as well, or as fast now as they did 4 years ago to win this race. "In theory", a horse like Fierceness with a -3 in the Florida Derby could go backwards, I.E. "Off" by 2 points and still win this with a -1. In theory. Make sense?
 
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To be honest, the horse profiles have so many positives and negatives about each horse that they’ll likely pick the winner each year…AFTER the race.

I remember this specifically last year after Mage won and there was some anecdote in there that cracked the code to him winning.
 
To be honest, the horse profiles have so many positives and negatives about each horse that they’ll likely pick the winner each year…AFTER the race.

I remember this specifically last year after Mage won and there was some anecdote in there that cracked the code to him winning.
Then don't waste your time reading them. You guys act like you're obligated to read something you don't like.

In 2010 - 2016 he had the following horses as his pick: Big Brown, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist.

His top choice this year is a 20/1, and that's BEFORE the fact, like his top picks are BEFORE THE FACT, every year.

I'm done responding to negative posts about this work. I don't like to waste my time either.

I spend time to post and give this stuff away for free. Do you teach for free? And then expect to get shit about it?
 
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Nobody needs a diatribe of your losing picks.

It isn't that hard.

My guess is you'll have Sierra Leone with Catching Freedom and Just a Touch in some form or fashion, You might even include Encino as your longshot.

Nobody needs to hear about your opinion on every single horse, much less the psychology of the horse.

I wish you good luck next Saturday and hope all your tickets are winning tickets.
Some of us find it interesting even if we don’t play.
 
To be honest, the horse profiles have so many positives and negatives about each horse that they’ll likely pick the winner each year…AFTER the race.

I remember this specifically last year after Mage won and there was some anecdote in there that cracked the code to him winning.
Pelini. So, "you remember specifically there was some anecdote in there that cracked the code to him winning?" Bullshit!!

I pulled up my copy I saved from his last year's write up on every horse, including Mage, who he picked as the 8th likely horse.

This is a verbatim account of what he wrote last year on Mage. You tell me WHERE THE HELL that anecdote is for him winning the race? Saying, "he could take another step forward in the Kentucky Derby" isn't anecdotal evidence that this horse could win.

QUOTE:
"Mage is a tenacious, competitive minded horse. He has put together some very impressive sequences within his races. There is major physcal talent here. The problem we see for him in the Kentucky Derby is that his Herd Dynamic Growth pattern and running style remains undefined.

Mage has been thrown into the fire very quickly . He has been learning on the fly, showing impressive ability and resilience. We are still very early in his growth curve. If he can iron out his gate issues, he could take another step forward in the Kentucky Derby.

But without a defined pattern of motion to fall back on, he is going to be winging it in perhaps the hardest race in the world to do so in. This is an enormous task for a horse who is still figuring out who he is." END QUOTE.....

1. FORTE
2. ANGEL OF EMPIRE
3. DERMA SOTOGAKE
4..TAPIT THRICE
5. KINGSBARN
6..TWO PHILS
7.. VERIFYING
8. MAGE

You want me to show you the bottom 4-5 horses that are given ZERO CHANCE to even be competitive in this race?
 
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IMHO, Fierceness is either going to win the race or not hit the board. His 3 workouts have been exceptional. He skims over the track and his efficient running motion reminds me of how American Pharoah moved over the track (no, I'm not saying he's the next American Pharoah). I think a mid to outside post (8-15) would be ideal where he could stalk the pace.

We know in a 20 horse field the pace will be honest (46 and change) or possibly faster. I'm hoping for a sub 46 half which should stretch the field out and let a late closer have a less troubled trip down the lane.

No one is talking about the Kentucky Oaks which is one of the better Oaks fields I've seen in many years. I think 5-6 fillies have a legitimate chance to win the race. There will be good value plays in that race.. Hopefully, we have great weather both days.
I did just take a look at the Oaks, which looks like a lot of the field will lose ground.

1. Thorpedo Anna 5/1
2. Ways And Means 9/2
3. Just FYI 9/2
4. Our Pretty Woman 15/1 (Also Eligible)

Saturday in the big turf race:

1. Integration 5/1
2. Program Trading 9/2
3. I'm Very Busy 4/1
4. Never Explain 15/1 (Also Eligible)
(Tossing the M/L favorite here, LOL).

I don't figure on playing either race, other than a couple bucks since I'll be watching those races.

Good luck with your selections.
 
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Things such as track condition, an additional scratch(es) may alter my selections, but I know what I intend to play now.
The Weather Channel shows a 70% chance of thundershowers on Friday and A.M showers on Saturday. I think we'll have a fast track at post time for the Derby.

If we do get a off track for the Oaks, Tarifa has won on a sloppy track. All the favorites have very good off track pedigrees. But you never know until they actually run on it.
 
I love rain on Saturday AM.

Huge speed bias early, then a chance to hit some prices later on with jockeys overcompensating.
 
I did just take a look at the Oaks, which looks like a lot of the field will lose ground.

1. Torpedo Anna 5/1
2. Ways And Means 9/2
3. Just FYI 9/2
4. Our Pretty Woman 15/1 (Also Eligible)

Saturday in the big turf race:

1. Integration 5/1
2. Program Trading 9/2
3. I'm Very Busy 4/1
4. Never Explain 15/1 (Also Eligible)
(Tossing the M/L favorite here, LOL).

I don't figure on playing either race, other than a couple bucks since I'll be watching those races.

Good luck with your selections.
I will be playing the turf race bigger than the Derby and absolutely love Integration. Perfect setup race in his last and I’m Very Busy, while very good, will be over bet IMO.
 
Tapit Jenallie scratched from the Oaks, Our Pretty Woman in. Will add to the early pace. I think she is a serious contender that has a very good off-track pedigree with 2 wins over a sloppy track. This is easily the beat Oaks field I've seen in many years. In early betting Thorpedo Anna is 2-1.
 
Tapit Jenallie scratched from the Oaks, Our Pretty Woman in. Will add to the early pace. I think she is a serious contender that has a very good off-track pedigree with 2 wins over a sloppy track. This is easily the beat Oaks field I've seen in many years. In early betting Thorpedo Anna is 2-1.
I really don't ever play this race, and when I do this time, it will be a few bucks just because I'm gonna watch the race.

Frankly, there are parts of the undercard on Friday and Saturday, as well as around the country, where the real profit lies. The same cast of characters that point to the Friday and Saturday of Derby week to launch the horses they have prepared for a couple months. Those people aren't stupid, they know the pools will be large with a lot of once a year/occassional bettors.
 
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Some of us find it interesting even if we don’t play.
Since I chose to not profile the entire field, I looked for a couple races Saturday to see if I could spot a couple plays that might/could produce some decent mutuels. I'll post them now, not knowing the track condition, which is really not how any of us should operate. Having said that, I do plan on making some minimal plays on these two races, of course, if anyone bets a few bucks and loses I'm taking no responsibility for those losses. LOL

Saturday Churchill Downs Race 2. 1 Mile on the Dirt.
The favorite # 2,, Scylla is the horse to beat. In an "attempt" to manufacture a decent payoff in the race, I'm going to be using the #1 Navy Goat at 20/1, the # 11, Victorius at 10/1, the # 8 , Coppa Girl at 4/1, and the # 4 Steel Racer at 8/1. Remember, its a horse race and anything can happen.

Race 5. Grade 2 Stakes Race, 5 1/2f on the (Turf).

This type of race tends to be very chaotic. Short run to the turn, lots of jostling, and likely many horses getting terrible trips. Two horses I'm not going to use, and yes, that invites trouble, are the # 4 Meritorius, and # 10 Big Invasion. Betting against D'Amato and Clement is a recipe for getting beat. Both these horses are among the 3 betting favorites, and could prove to be big trouble, but since I'm "trying" to manufacture a good mutuel, I'll pretend they don't exist. LOL

The # 4 horse, Mischief Magic, will be among the 3 "favorites at 4/1. Trained by Appleby, one of the great European trainers.
His numbers shipping to this country are ridiculous as he only runs in big races. His record is 33 starts, 52% wins, 85% in the money. Between Europe and the US in Graded Stakes in 2 years he is 67 starts, 40% wins, 76% in the money. And this is always against the best turf horses the US has to offer. Yet, his horse is among 2 others that are outstanding in this field.

The # 3 horse, Coppola, at 10/1, the # 11 horse, Mister Mmmm at 20/1, and the # 2 horse, Front Run The Fed at 30/1,
the # 1 horse, Candy Man Rocket at 30/1, asking myself, what is he doing in today's race?

Candy Man Rocket is a 6 year old horse with 14 career starts, all on the dirt, and today he debuts on the turf in a Grade 2 sprint.
He's trained by one of the great turf trainers in Bill Mott, so, as Bill Murray would say, "I got that going for me."
He's been a good dirt horse and has ran 4 times in Grade 1 and 2 races with 2 good and 2 bad races. He is in the #1 post, so he is gonna be outrun early and get buried on the turn. The race may well be decided before he ever gets cranked up.

For the first time in his career he worked on the turf at GP, had a decent 1.01 work, and either Mott liked the way the horse moved over the surface, or more likely, just trying to extend this useful horse's career by putting him on a more cushoning surface. At any rate, at 30/1 in a chaotic race, I'll pay a few bucks to find out. Clearly he's had physical issues.

Do NOT play any money that you'll potentially lose. Both these races could run chalk-chalk, of which I would be SOL. LOL
 
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Since I chose to not profile then entire field, I looked for a couple races Saturday to see if I could spot a couple plays that might/could produce some decent mutuels. I'll post them now, not knowing the track condition, which is really not how any of us should operate. Having said that, I do plan on making some minimal plays on these two races, and of course, if anyone bets a few bucks and loses I'm taking no responsibility for those losses. LOL

Saturday Churchill Downs Race 2. 1 Mile on the Dirt.
The favorite # 2,, Scylla is the horse to beat. In an "attempt" to manufacture a decent payoff in the race, I'm going to be using the #1 Navy Goat at 20/1, the # 11, Victorius at 10/1, the # 8 , Coppa Girl at 4/1, and the # 4 Steel Racer at 8/1. Remember, its a horse race and anything can happen.

Race 5. Grade 2 Stakes Race, 5 1/2f on the (Turf).

This type of race tends to be very chaotic. Short run to the turn, lots of jostling, and likely many horses getting terrible trips. Two horse I'm not going to use, and yes, that invites trouble, are the # 4 Meritorius, and # 10 Big Invasion. Betting against D'Amato and Clement is a recipe for getting beat. Both these horses are among the 3 betting favorites, and could prove to be big trouble, but since I'm "trying" to manufacture a good mutuel, I'll pretend they don't exist. LOL

The # 4 horse, Mischief Magic, will be among the 3 "favorites at 4/1. Trained by Appleby, one of the great European trainers.
His numbers shipping to this country are ridiculous as he only runs in big races. His record is 33 starts, 52% wins, 85% in the money. Between Europe and the US in Graded Stakes in 2 years he is 67 starts, 40% wins, 76% in the money. And this is always against the best turf horses the US has to offer. Yet, his horse is among 2 others that are outstanding in this field.

The # 3 horse, Coppola, at 10/1, the # 11 horse, Mister Mmmm at 20/1, and the # 2 horse, Front Run The Fed at 30/1,
the # 1 horse, Candy Man Rocket at 30/1, asking myself, what is he doing in today's race?

Candy Man Rocket is a 6 year old horse with 14 career starts, all on the dirt, and today he debuts on the turf in a Grade 2 sprint.
He's trained by one of the great turf trainers in Bill Mott, so, as Bill Murray would say, "I got that going for me."
He's been a good dirt horse and has ran 4 times in Grade 1 and 2 races with 2 good and 2 bad races. He is in the #1 post, so he is gonna be outrun early and get buried on the turn. The race may well be decided before he ever gets cranked up.

For the first time in his career he worked on the turf at GP, had a decent 1.01 work, and either Mott liked the way the horse moved over the surface, or more likely, just trying to extend this useful horse's career by putting him on a more cushoning surface. At any rate, at 30/1 in a chaotic race, I'll pay a few bucks to find out. Clearly he's had physical issues.

Do NOT play any money that you'll potentially lose. Both these races could run chalk-chalk, of which I would be SOL. LOL
have fun!
 
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I know the Wood hasn't been the strongest prep race recently when talking the derby, but just love the way the 19 is improving each and every time out...taking a shot on Resilience.
 
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I did just take a look at the Oaks, which looks like a lot of the field will lose ground.

1. Thorpedo Anna 5/1
2. Ways And Means 9/2
3. Just FYI 9/2
4. Our Pretty Woman 15/1 (Also Eligible)

Saturday in the big turf race:

1. Integration 5/1
2. Program Trading 9/2
3. I'm Very Busy 4/1
4. Never Explain 15/1 (Also Eligible)
(Tossing the M/L favorite here, LOL).

I don't figure on playing either race, other than a couple bucks since I'll be watching those races.

Good luck with your selections.
Good call on Anna.
 
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