You are a savant. The detail you go into amazes me. I’ve read a fair amount on herd dynamics and have used some of that in a rudimentary manner. Hell I used it some when I used to hunt deer. When the videos came out explaining equine postures and mannerisms it was an aha moment for me. I saw those as a kid breaking colts but didn’t realize the significance. I pity some of those poor horses who were subjected to a 13 year old”trainer”.
PERSONALITY TRAITS OF THE DERBY HORSES. I will list them beginning with betting favorites according to the M/L.
FIERCENESS, 5/2. Post Position 17. Jockey Johnny Velasquez.
Has a natural ability to regulate his emotional ability. Allows him to conserve and distribute his energy evenly. Has an acute awareness of his surroundings, including track surface condition. He has the ability to absorb the environment. He has a competitive forward aspect and sensory efficiency which allows him to press into open spaces with purpose.
Mentally, Fierceness has an aptitude for hitting a "cruise control" mental gear with his high rhythms of GHD (Group Herd Dynamic) which allows him to conserve mental energy and keeps him "pounce ready" in a strategic manner. His competitive nature is undeniable, which seeks out the vulnerable aspects of his competitors. In the battle of psychological warfare, he is equipped to go to war against any of his rivals.
He is showing signs that his IHD (Individual Herd Dynamic) is reaching maturity. This is a growth pattern which has not be encumbered by any additional equipment, which would interrupt his sensory ability. His Rear Sensory Zone (Zone 4) has very good feel interpretations allowing him to respond to hindmost pressure with efficient communication between his forward and rear sensory.
VULNERABILITIES: The depth-perception portion of the sensory egg, which is both up and down (from the ground up) and in and out from the body, can be compromised from from certain environmental and peer pressure. There is a potential of protracted filtering when engaging multiple stimuli. With added duration, he tends to tuck-in his emotional energy. This changes his physical expression from a forward "into space" motion to a more "up and down" motion compromising stride length and requiring more energy to cover the same distance. This burns excess energy rapidly and mitigates total duration of competitive nature and shortens competitive distance. There is an underlying risk of accumulating stress when competing. This causes him to withdraw his placement in a developing heirarchy position.
When he feels excessive peer pressures early it will draw a lot of emotional energy from his IHD and into the aspects of the GHD, this is Fierceness overcompensating for the loss of feel in depth perception. This is only detectable when in motion. Even if he recovers, he will have exhausted his energy reserves leaving him subject to mental fatigue. Self preservation instincts then kick in causing him to seek herd cover, which is not uncommon of a high level horse.
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: His IHD has developed significantly faster than his GHD. He's not an aggressive antagonist in total performances in all instances. In a 10 furlong race the psychological battles can be in bunches, or not at all, depending on the situational chaos as the time. Consider this like you or I driving 2 miles of different circumstances such as road conditions, weather and traffic. How well he handles race conditions will determine much.
HUMAN FACTOR: The jockeys ability to anticipate events happening and about to happen are key to his performance. His post position should be of no consequence, early physical position will prove less impactful than finding an early natural rhythm motion.
I'm hoping you will be able to read between the lines of what this man is trying to convey here.....
SIERRA LEONE, 3/1, jockey Tyler Gafflione.
STRENGTHS: When he winds himself up into IHD, he has a strong capacity to follow through. He has the ability to "run into space" consistently especially when there is open space in front of him. The times that he has encountered horses he has shown a willingness to join the fray. He has a fast cycling natural rhythm, and the earmarks of a high degree of emotional energy. He has a dial up and dial in type of determination to push it forward. His competitive nature cannot be questioned.
He has the type of personality that will not defer to others in battle. To this point, he has been able to shed peer pressure.
He has the make up of a horse that can run from any position, as long as it is clear in front of him and doesn't interfere with his space awareness. In other words, he can take a punch and shake it off.
VULNERABILITIES: He has inefficiency in the area of Group Herd Dynamics within the body of the race itself. His Sensory Lead Changes are delayed when "cruising" with other horses and when the hammer down stages of IHD, because things are happening a lot faster, and things can get bumpy. GHD has to do with environment, depth-perception and self-awareness, and he has evidence of nagging delays with those areas. It takes him some time out of the gate to find his natural rhythm, as a result of outsourcing because he looks forward to questions that he can't yet answer. He tends to let things play out around him before he settles into a purposeful mental cadence. Because of this, he is environmentally dependent.
He has a reckless expression which occurs when he is in IHD combat mode which is a byproduct of his sensory lead change delays. He doesn't clear the space around him as quickly as is needed and that causes him to lose forward efficiency.
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: He has the capacity to compete and the will be competitive, but he does have some chinks in his armor. His biggest antagonists are not his competitors, it is himself and his ineffeciency to be phyically efficient from start to finish. I lean to him having to outrun himself, and in the Derby, this is more than what he has experienced. He tries to overcompensate for his lack of sensory through movement, but his sensory lead change delays combat that. He has the ability to get the 10 furlongs but his mental fatigue could prove to be his enemy. This causes him to grind a little harder and dig a little deeper. If he can keep from leaking too much energy, he can compete with any horse in this field.
HUMAN FACTOR: The jockey would do well to not have a predetermine place where he wants that horse to be early in the race. The thought of him having to press early will be counterproductive. Horses can sense the slightest urgency or anxiety coming from the saddle. He would do well to go moment to moment. The post position will play a role in the jockey to bridge his GHD and the interpretation demands that follow. I worry about him emptying his lunchbox early then having nothing left later for a snack. What he does after 100 seconds will be determined by what he does in the first 15 seconds of the race. To look at distance from a horse's point of view, it is about duration. How long can the horse sustain mental and emotional focus.
CATCHING FREEDOM: 8/1. Jockey is Flavian Prat.
STRENGHTS: He has a naturally strong IHD and works hard to be patient because his natural instinct is to engage. This allows him to sort the environment within the GHD right out of the gate. He is a very physical horse and a wealth of emotional energy in which to draw from. This 3 year old season he is becoming a better version of himself.
VULNERABILITIES: My concern is in his sensory efficiency. His GHD goes into drive right out of the gate as he wants to know where am I, and what is going on around me. His Sensory Lead Changes are quite delayed and sticky. This leads to ground loss.
I'm discontinuing any further personality profiles.
