Since I chose to not profile the entire field, I looked for a couple races Saturday to see if I could spot a couple plays that might/could produce some decent mutuels. I'll post them now, not knowing the track condition, which is really not how any of us should operate. Having said that, I do plan on making some minimal plays on these two races, of course, if anyone bets a few bucks and loses I'm taking no responsibility for those losses. LOL
Saturday Churchill Downs Race 2. 1 Mile on the Dirt.
The favorite # 2,, Scylla is the horse to beat. In an "attempt" to manufacture a decent payoff in the race, I'm going to be using the #1 Navy Goat at 20/1, the # 11, Victorius at 10/1, the # 8 , Coppa Girl at 4/1, and the # 4 Steel Racer at 8/1. Remember, its a horse race and anything can happen.
Race 5. Grade 2 Stakes Race, 5 1/2f on the (Turf).
This type of race tends to be very chaotic. Short run to the turn, lots of jostling, and likely many horses getting terrible trips. Two horses I'm not going to use, and yes, that invites trouble, are the # 4 Meritorius, and # 10 Big Invasion. Betting against D'Amato and Clement is a recipe for getting beat. Both these horses are among the 3 betting favorites, and could prove to be big trouble, but since I'm "trying" to manufacture a good mutuel, I'll pretend they don't exist. LOL
The # 4 horse, Mischief Magic, will be among the 3 "favorites at 4/1. Trained by Appleby, one of the great European trainers.
His numbers shipping to this country are ridiculous as he only runs in big races. His record is 33 starts, 52% wins, 85% in the money. Between Europe and the US in Graded Stakes in 2 years he is 67 starts, 40% wins, 76% in the money. And this is always against the best turf horses the US has to offer. Yet, his horse is among 2 others that are outstanding in this field.
The # 3 horse, Coppola, at 10/1, the # 11 horse, Mister Mmmm at 20/1, and the # 2 horse, Front Run The Fed at 30/1,
the # 1 horse, Candy Man Rocket at 30/1, asking myself, what is he doing in today's race?
Candy Man Rocket is a 6 year old horse with 14 career starts, all on the dirt, and today he debuts on the turf in a Grade 2 sprint.
He's trained by one of the great turf trainers in Bill Mott, so, as Bill Murray would say, "I got that going for me."
He's been a good dirt horse and has ran 4 times in Grade 1 and 2 races with 2 good and 2 bad races. He is in the #1 post, so he is gonna be outrun early and get buried on the turn. The race may well be decided before he ever gets cranked up.
For the first time in his career he worked on the turf at GP, had a decent 1.01 work, and either Mott liked the way the horse moved over the surface, or more likely, just trying to extend this useful horse's career by putting him on a more cushoning surface. At any rate, at 30/1 in a chaotic race, I'll pay a few bucks to find out. Clearly he's had physical issues.
Do NOT play any money that you'll potentially lose. Both these races could run chalk-chalk, of which I would be SOL. LOL