OT: The Kentucky Derby

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Favorite post of the year-2 years running.

All kidding aside, stand by for an upcoming invite from my good friend on this board and reply to his message. In the event you're not aware, anytime that square with a little tail, by the Alerts box has a"1" that means you just click on it, and it will take you to that private chat. I'm not sure when he will get around to it because he's doing me a favor.

Good luck tomorrow, trust me, we'll all need it.

 

[StoneTempleHusker]

11 Forever Young
2 Sierra Leone
19 Resilience
3 Mystik Dan

The Japanese invader finally gets it done

 

[Capiche]

For you hunch players, today May 4 is Honor Marie's actual birthday. May the 4th be with you.

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

I went with Domestic Product as my key horse, mostly in 2nd/3rd in tris.

I know he’s got a really bad case of the slows so far, but his races have looked like tractor-pulls as far as pace, I know he’s going to get the 1 1/4 and keep running, and Chad Brown never enters a horse in the KD unless they are very well-intentioned. If he doesn’t think they are ready, he has zero problem waiting for the Preakness. Plus this horse will be huge odds and I’m not looking to get chalky here.

 

[Capiche]

I went with Domestic Product as my key horse, mostly in 2nd/3rd in tris.

I know he’s got a really bad case of the slows so far, but his races have looked like tractor-pulls as far as pace, I know he’s going to get the 1 1/4 and keep running, and Chad Brown never enters a horse in the KD unless they are very well-intentioned. If he doesn’t think they are ready, he has zero problem waiting for the Preakness. Plus this horse will be huge odds and I’m not looking to get chalky here.

I'll be playing Resiience in a similar manner. He's coming off a pair of 90 Beyers. Can he take the next step? Although I didn't like his last workout, Just Steel has had some wide trips. I hope with post 6 he can save some ground. All these horses are currently in the 25-30/1 range.

Look at the Oaks yesterday, the two favorites finished 1-2, and Regulatory Risk, at 29-1, finished out the tri that paid $448 for 50 cents.

 

[Capiche]

Mindframe, race 3 winer at Churchill, is a serous racehorse. I think we'll see him at Saratoga in maybe the Jim Dandy Stakes.. Then The Travers? Major talent.

 

[king_kong_]

Derby Day!

Good luck handicappers!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Since I chose to not profile the entire field, I looked for a couple races Saturday to see if I could spot a couple plays that might/could produce some decent mutuels. I'll post them now, not knowing the track condition, which is really not how any of us should operate. Having said that, I do plan on making some minimal plays on these two races, of course, if anyone bets a few bucks and loses I'm taking no responsibility for those losses. LOL

Saturday Churchill Downs Race 2. 1 Mile on the Dirt.
The favorite # 2,, Scylla is the horse to beat. In an "attempt" to manufacture a decent payoff in the race, I'm going to be using the #1 Navy Goat at 20/1, the # 11, Victorius at 10/1, the # 8 , Coppa Girl at 4/1, and the # 4 Steel Racer at 8/1. Remember, its a horse race and anything can happen.

Race 5. Grade 2 Stakes Race, 5 1/2f on the (Turf).

This type of race tends to be very chaotic. Short run to the turn, lots of jostling, and likely many horses getting terrible trips. Two horses I'm not going to use, and yes, that invites trouble, are the # 4 Meritorius, and # 10 Big Invasion. Betting against D'Amato and Clement is a recipe for getting beat. Both these horses are among the 3 betting favorites, and could prove to be big trouble, but since I'm "trying" to manufacture a good mutuel, I'll pretend they don't exist. LOL

The # 4 horse, Mischief Magic, will be among the 3 "favorites at 4/1. Trained by Appleby, one of the great European trainers.
His numbers shipping to this country are ridiculous as he only runs in big races. His record is 33 starts, 52% wins, 85% in the money. Between Europe and the US in Graded Stakes in 2 years he is 67 starts, 40% wins, 76% in the money. And this is always against the best turf horses the US has to offer. Yet, his horse is among 2 others that are outstanding in this field.

The # 3 horse, Coppola, at 10/1, the # 11 horse, Mister Mmmm at 20/1, and the # 2 horse, Front Run The Fed at 30/1,
the # 1 horse, Candy Man Rocket at 30/1, asking myself, what is he doing in today's race?

Candy Man Rocket is a 6 year old horse with 14 career starts, all on the dirt, and today he debuts on the turf in a Grade 2 sprint.
He's trained by one of the great turf trainers in Bill Mott, so, as Bill Murray would say, "I got that going for me."
He's been a good dirt horse and has ran 4 times in Grade 1 and 2 races with 2 good and 2 bad races. He is in the #1 post, so he is gonna be outrun early and get buried on the turn. The race may well be decided before he ever gets cranked up.

For the first time in his career he worked on the turf at GP, had a decent 1.01 work, and either Mott liked the way the horse moved over the surface, or more likely, just trying to extend this useful horse's career by putting him on a more cushoning surface. At any rate, at 30/1 in a chaotic race, I'll pay a few bucks to find out. Clearly he's had physical issues.

Do NOT play any money that you'll potentially lose. Both these races could run chalk-chalk, of which I would be SOL. LOL

Well, I could have done without that selection of trying to manufacture a payoff.

 

[GBRforLife1]

What time is the Derby?

Just trying to figure out the window to be coherent for...

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Forever Young. Winners win.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

What time is the Derby?

Just trying to figure out the window to be coherent for...

POST IS 5:57 OUR TIME

 

[GBRforLife1]

POST IS 5:57 OUR TIME

I might not make it

 

[dinglefritz]

POST IS 5:57 OUR TIME

Damn. My wife scheduled a dinner with friends and we are supposed to pick up friends at 6.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

WOW!!!

 

[dinglefritz]

POST IS 5:57 OUR TIME

HOLY SHEET!!!!!!!

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

Don't follow this sport but I had to wonder why Fierceness went so hard so early and led for so long...even I thought that was a mistake as it was happening.

 

[Capiche]

Mystic Dan rode the rail to victory. McPeek/Hernandez sweep the Derby and Oaks. If Sierra Leone and Forever Young don't jostle around with each other, either one could have won the race.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Mystic Dan rode the rail to victory. McPeek/Hernandez sweep the Derby and Oaks. If Sierra Leone and Forever Young don't jostle around with each other, either one could have won the race.

I got "lucky" by playing the 3/2/11 multiple times, hit the exacta and tri 3 times each, for some strange reason I had 42.00 to win on the 3 horse. (Must had 2.00 left on my voucher or something. LOL ). I sent a screenshot to a friend on this board for my "at the track tickets" I played, but Twin Spires took down the total bets I made before I could get a screenshot.
I had 3/11/2/4 multiple times in the super and just missed. It's a bitch of a race to hit.

Just more data for me to try to analyze for next year. Going into the race, I didn't post this due to some of the backlash I received, I chose not to disclose that Geroux, Gafflione and Irad are 0-16 on moving horses up in the Derby. Plus, my less than stellar performance on the earlier races I posted here kept me from possibly influencing anyone who liked that horse.

Even though Sierrra ran 2nd, I doubt the horse moved up. That kept me from playing Sierra Leone to win, in addition to the 2 not winning the Derby since 1999, although, I thought, even with the trip he was likely to get, he was the most likely to get a piece.

Post 17 where Fierceness was in is now 0-forever to win the Derby. Post 2 has not won since 1999.

For all that played today, I hope you all fared well. Time to watch some UFC fights.

 

[litespeedhuskerfan]

I got "lucky" by playing the 3/2/11 multiple times, hit the exacta and tri 3 times each, for some strange reason I had 42.00 to win on the 3 horse. (Must had 2.00 left on my voucher or something. LOL ). I sent a screenshot to a friend on this board for my "at the track tickets" I played, but Twin Spires took down the total bets I made before I could get a screenshot.
I had 3/11/2/4 multiple times in the super and just missed. It's a bitch of a race to hit.

Just more data for me to try to analyze for next year. Going into the race, I didn't post this due to some of the backlash I received, I chose not to disclose that Geroux, Gafflione and Irad are 0-16 on moving horses up in the Derby. Even though Sierrra ran 2nd, I doubt the horse moved up. That kept me from playing Sierra Leone to win, in addition to the 2 not winning the Derby since 1999, although, I thought, even with the trip he was likely to get, he was the most likely to get a piece.

Post 17 where Fierceness was in is now 0-forever to win the Derby. Post 2 has not won since 1999.

For all that played today, I hope you all fared well. Time to watch some UFC fights.

I can't tell if you won or lost money here 🤣

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I can't tell if you won or lost money here 🤣

I netted $ 3,114.00.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Mystic Dan rode the rail to victory. McPeek/Hernandez sweep the Derby and Oaks. If Sierra Leone and Forever Young don't jostle around with each other, either one could have won the race.

Any top; 20 jockey in the US wins this race aboard Forever Young. I said I loved the horse, and the jockey was, and did, do enough bouncing around in the saddle to get this horse beat. Looks like, can't confirm, Gafflione on the #2 horse actually put his hands on the # 11 jockey in the stretch. In all fairness, Sierra Leone should have come down.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Don't follow this sport but I had to wonder why Fierceness went so hard so early and led for so long...even I thought that was a mistake as it was happening.

Fierceness hoped out of the gate, that typically screws up the rhythm immediately, but not making an excuse for the horse. Looks like when they hit the stretch the horse had nothing left. Johnny V, did make a mistake today, and that is very rare. Being 3 wide, rather than asking the horse for 30 feet to go past Track Phantom would have put Fierceness on the lead and the rail The trip he had going into the turn he had already run 30 feet farther than T Phantom. It really was irrelevant though, as I said earlier in this post, hitting the stretch and Fierceness was already empty.

**Edited to add: In 6 career races now, FIerceness is 6-3-0-1-0-2. From the first quarter pole on, he's passed one horse.

There's a reason why no horse, regardless of running style, has not won this race from Post 17 in forever.

The best horse in the race was the 11.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Damn. My wife scheduled a dinner with friends and we are supposed to pick up friends at 6.

My wife knows better. LOL And that's not a Nikki six reaction on my part.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I might not make it

That's a bummer cause they're gonna run without you. lol

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I'll be playing Resiience in a similar manner. He's coming off a pair of 90 Beyers. Can he take the next step? Although I didn't like his last workout, Just Steel has had some wide trips. I hope with post 6 he can save some ground. All these horses are currently in the 25-30/1 range.

Look at the Oaks yesterday, the two favorites finished 1-2, and Regulatory Risk, at 29-1, finished out the tri that paid $448 for 50 cents.

That was one that cost me too. Things just have to fall in place, and most of the time they don't.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I went with Domestic Product as my key horse, mostly in 2nd/3rd in tris.

I know he’s got a really bad case of the slows so far, but his races have looked like tractor-pulls as far as pace, I know he’s going to get the 1 1/4 and keep running, and Chad Brown never enters a horse in the KD unless they are very well-intentioned. If he doesn’t think they are ready, he has zero problem waiting for the Preakness. Plus this horse will be huge odds and I’m not looking to get chalky here.

When you have that horse you like with long odds in this race, there's nothing wrong with that. You and I gotta play 'em, right?
I've played long ones before that never showed, it happens.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I put my money on Forever Young

You were just a couple noses away from making a real nice selection.

 

[dinglefritz]

Mystic Dan rode the rail to victory. McPeek/Hernandez sweep the Derby and Oaks. If Sierra Leone and Forever Young don't jostle around with each other, either one could have won the race.

My thoughts exactly on the contact. Either one would have won. I couldn’t see that Mystic Dans jock ever went to the whip. Did he think he had it won and nearly got surprised at the end?

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

When you have that horse you like with long odds in this race, there's nothing wrong with that. You and I gotta play 'em, right?
I've played long ones before that never showed, it happens.

Good Lord that was hard to watch though. As good as Irad was all day, and he didn’t have the right horse here regardless, but his ride was a botched abortion.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Good Lord that was hard to watch though. As good as Irad was all day, and he didn’t have the right horse here regardless, but his ride was a botched abortion.

We know Irad is a great jockey. Did you know in the Derby he is 0-6 to move up ANY horse he's ridden in the race? He's been on contenders and non-contenders, but the criteria is: DId he move the horse up? So far, he has not.

In fact, Irad, Geroux and Gafflione were 0-16 and now its likely 0-19. It matters in THIS race when guys like Prat, Jose Ortiz, (Leparoux, and Castellano didn't ride this Derby) all move up their horses from their previous tops. It just does.

 

[Big bo fan]

HOLY SHEET!!!!!!!

The is no. Way this was the greatest horse race of all time. A 3 way photo. It might never happen again.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Mindframe, race 3 winer at Churchill, is a serous racehorse. I think we'll see him at Saratoga in maybe the Jim Dandy Stakes.. Then The Travers? Major talent.

In looking at his lineage, he takes on the look of a freak. His pedigree is interesting. He's already significantly better than most, however his sire, Constitution did win the Florida Derby and the Donn Handicap, so it appears his ability comes from the male side of the pedigree. Constitution, Tapit, AP Indy could all run all day, and this one might too. From that aspect, he might have a helluva upside.

I don't have the figure from yesterday, and it's not gonna be as good as his career debut where he ran a daunting 0, which, as a pure number is the type a 3 year old needs to heavily compete, and even win the Kentucky Derby.

It looks like you'll have to see what he's got when he faces horses with some talent. That race yesterday at 24.3, 49.1, 1:13.1, and 1:36.3 isn't gonna scare any real good 3 year olds. How often would he be sitting on a 24+ quarter and a 49+ half? Then there's gonna be a question if he can run as well when they take the Lasix away since both starts he's had Lasix.

Not down on this horse at all Capiche, that debut number of 0 says this colt can really run. Just a lot of unanswered questions heading into some legitimate competition later this summer and fall. The cool thing about this sport is you get to wager your opinion.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

PERSONALITY TRAITS OF THE DERBY HORSES. I will list them beginning with betting favorites according to the M/L.
FIERCENESS, 5/2. Post Position 17. Jockey Johnny Velasquez.

Has a natural ability to regulate his emotional ability. Allows him to conserve and distribute his energy evenly. Has an acute awareness of his surroundings, including track surface condition. He has the ability to absorb the environment. He has a competitive forward aspect and sensory efficiency which allows him to press into open spaces with purpose.
Mentally, Fierceness has an aptitude for hitting a "cruise control" mental gear with his high rhythms of GHD (Group Herd Dynamic) which allows him to conserve mental energy and keeps him "pounce ready" in a strategic manner. His competitive nature is undeniable, which seeks out the vulnerable aspects of his competitors. In the battle of psychological warfare, he is equipped to go to war against any of his rivals.

He is showing signs that his IHD (Individual Herd Dynamic) is reaching maturity. This is a growth pattern which has not be encumbered by any additional equipment, which would interrupt his sensory ability. His Rear Sensory Zone (Zone 4) has very good feel interpretations allowing him to respond to hindmost pressure with efficient communication between his forward and rear sensory.

VULNERABILITIES: The depth-perception portion of the sensory egg, which is both up and down (from the ground up) and in and out from the body, can be compromised from from certain environmental and peer pressure. There is a potential of protracted filtering when engaging multiple stimuli. With added duration, he tends to tuck-in his emotional energy. This changes his physical expression from a forward "into space" motion to a more "up and down" motion compromising stride length and requiring more energy to cover the same distance. This burns excess energy rapidly and mitigates total duration of competitive nature and shortens competitive distance. There is an underlying risk of accumulating stress when competing. This causes him to withdraw his placement in a developing heirarchy position.

When he feels excessive peer pressures early it will draw a lot of emotional energy from his IHD and into the aspects of the GHD, this is Fierceness overcompensating for the loss of feel in depth perception. This is only detectable when in motion. Even if he recovers, he will have exhausted his energy reserves leaving him subject to mental fatigue. Self preservation instincts then kick in causing him to seek herd cover, which is not uncommon of a high level horse.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: His IHD has developed significantly faster than his GHD. He's not an aggressive antagonist in total performances in all instances. In a 10 furlong race the psychological battles can be in bunches, or not at all, depending on the situational chaos as the time. Consider this like you or I driving 2 miles of different circumstances such as road conditions, weather and traffic. How well he handles race conditions will determine much.

HUMAN FACTOR: The jockeys ability to anticipate events happening and about to happen are key to his performance. His post position should be of no consequence, early physical position will prove less impactful than finding an early natural rhythm motion.

I'm hoping you will be able to read between the lines of what this man is trying to convey here.....

SIERRA LEONE, 3/1, jockey Tyler Gafflione.

STRENGTHS: When he winds himself up into IHD, he has a strong capacity to follow through. He has the ability to "run into space" consistently especially when there is open space in front of him. The times that he has encountered horses he has shown a willingness to join the fray. He has a fast cycling natural rhythm, and the earmarks of a high degree of emotional energy. He has a dial up and dial in type of determination to push it forward. His competitive nature cannot be questioned.
He has the type of personality that will not defer to others in battle. To this point, he has been able to shed peer pressure.
He has the make up of a horse that can run from any position, as long as it is clear in front of him and doesn't interfere with his space awareness. In other words, he can take a punch and shake it off.

VULNERABILITIES: He has inefficiency in the area of Group Herd Dynamics within the body of the race itself. His Sensory Lead Changes are delayed when "cruising" with other horses and when the hammer down stages of IHD, because things are happening a lot faster, and things can get bumpy. GHD has to do with environment, depth-perception and self-awareness, and he has evidence of nagging delays with those areas. It takes him some time out of the gate to find his natural rhythm, as a result of outsourcing because he looks forward to questions that he can't yet answer. He tends to let things play out around him before he settles into a purposeful mental cadence. Because of this, he is environmentally dependent.

He has a reckless expression which occurs when he is in IHD combat mode which is a byproduct of his sensory lead change delays. He doesn't clear the space around him as quickly as is needed and that causes him to lose forward efficiency.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS: He has the capacity to compete and the will be competitive, but he does have some chinks in his armor. His biggest antagonists are not his competitors, it is himself and his ineffeciency to be phyically efficient from start to finish. I lean to him having to outrun himself, and in the Derby, this is more than what he has experienced. He tries to overcompensate for his lack of sensory through movement, but his sensory lead change delays combat that. He has the ability to get the 10 furlongs but his mental fatigue could prove to be his enemy. This causes him to grind a little harder and dig a little deeper. If he can keep from leaking too much energy, he can compete with any horse in this field.

HUMAN FACTOR: The jockey would do well to not have a predetermine place where he wants that horse to be early in the race. The thought of him having to press early will be counterproductive. Horses can sense the slightest urgency or anxiety coming from the saddle. He would do well to go moment to moment. The post position will play a role in the jockey to bridge his GHD and the interpretation demands that follow. I worry about him emptying his lunchbox early then having nothing left later for a snack. What he does after 100 seconds will be determined by what he does in the first 15 seconds of the race. To look at distance from a horse's point of view, it is about duration. How long can the horse sustain mental and emotional focus.

CATCHING FREEDOM: 8/1. Jockey is Flavian Prat.

STRENGHTS: He has a naturally strong IHD and works hard to be patient because his natural instinct is to engage. This allows him to sort the environment within the GHD right out of the gate. He is a very physical horse and a wealth of emotional energy in which to draw from. This 3 year old season he is becoming a better version of himself.

VULNERABILITIES: My concern is in his sensory efficiency. His GHD goes into drive right out of the gate as he wants to know where am I, and what is going on around me. His Sensory Lead Changes are quite delayed and sticky. This leads to ground loss.

I'm discontinuing any further personality profiles.

I'm going to reply to my own post here because it lays out the strengths and vulnerabilities of two horses, Fierceness and Sierra Leone. It explains how it fits into each of their profiles, how it could and DID affect each horses performance. His analysis of Fierceness was exactly on the button, and Sierra Leone performed almost exactly as his personality suggested it would. Contrary to those who felt I was wasting board members time, this is something that should be taken into account in this race every year. The mere chaos of the race demands you know how each horse could reasonably expect to react.

Now, as far as why the Performance Numbers I choose to use are important, these are the horses that had a number good enough to compete for the win. Not all performed to their previous bests, but overall, three did, and 3 didn't, and the other 14 horses lacked any number that made them serious contenders.
You can look at my post that showed their 2 year old top, and the last 2 prep races they ran. Those numbers are:

Mystik Dan 0,3.
Sierra Leone 4,1.
Forever Young 1,1.
Fierceness 4,-3
Just Steel 7,1
Just A Touch 2,2

In the last 10 runnings of the Derby, the race yesterday would be right in the middle at each fraction and final time. Meaning the race wasn't run fast enough for any pace meltdown, so the horses that had the type of Performance Figure to run well, for the most part did run well.

Since Fierceness showed he was likely to stop, the next best numbers were, in order, Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Forever Young, and you could have flip flopped Sierra Leone and Forever Young.

Fierceness was hooked and stopped, Just A Touch's lack of seasoning was not on par with his Daddys', and Just Steel had no business being on the front end.

Once I finish responding to any posts directed to me, I will put this thread to bed. Thanks to all who gave it their best shot.

 

[StoneTempleHusker]

I'm going to reply to my own post here because it lays out the strengths and vulnerabilities of two horses, Fierceness and Sierra Leone. It explains how it fits into each of their profiles, how it could and DID affect each horses performance. His analysis of Fierceness was exactly on the button, and Sierra Leone performed almost exactly as his personality suggested it would. Contrary to those who felt I was wasting board members time, this is something that should be taken into account in this race every year. The mere chaos of the race demands you know how each horse could reasonably expect to react.

Now, as far as why the Performance Numbers I choose to use are important, these are the horses that had a number good enough to compete for the win. Not all performed to their previous bests, but overall, three did, and 3 didn't, and the other 14 horses lacked any number that made them serious contenders.
You can look at my post that showed their 2 year old top, and the last 2 prep races they ran. Those numbers are:

Mystik Dan 0,3.
Sierra Leone 4,1.
Forever Young 1,1.
Fierceness 4,-3
Just Steel 7,1
Just A Touch 2,2

In the last 10 runnings of the Derby, the race yesterday would be right in the middle at each fraction and final time. Meaning the race wasn't run fast enough for any pace meltdown, so the horses that had the type of Performance Figure to run well, for the most part did run well.

Since Fierceness showed he was likely to stop, the next best numbers were, in order, Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Forever Young, and you could have flip flopped Sierra Leone and Forever Young.

Fierceness was hooked and stopped, Just A Touch's lack of seasoning was not on par with his Daddys', and Just Steel had no business being on the front end.

Once I finish responding to any posts directed to me, I will put this thread to bed. Thanks to all who gave it their best shot.

Nicely done.

Thankfully had a 'saver' trifecta with Mystik Dan. An 11/2/3 finish would have been just a tad bit better for myself. 😢 But such is the case in 20 horse fields where chaos always happens.

Fierceness is anything but fierce. Horse doesn't get things his way, and he is an also ran.

This year's Belmont at Saratoga is going to be amazing. Wish I was going.

 

[Capiche]

100 Beyer for Mystic Dan

This appears to be an average group of 3 year olds even with Fierceness' 2 huge Beyer numbers. That's not to say some horses couldn't develop later in the year.

Looking at the Derby splits, the last 4F was run in 52 seconds, the last quarter a little under 26 seconds.

Brian Hernandez said he watched Calvin Borel win many races with rail-riding trips and knew a similar ride could prove the difference, The fact that Dornoch didn't break well from post 1 gave Hernandez the opportunity to take the rail position behind Track Phantom.

It'll be interesting to see how many Derby horses go to the Preakness. I would think Sierra Leone will skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont at Saratoga. I assume Muth will be the morning line favorite at Pimlico

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

100 Beyer for Mystic Dan

This appears to be an average group of 3 year olds even with Fierceness' 2 huge Beyer numbers. That's not to say some horses couldn't develop later in the year.

Looking at the Derby splits, the last 4F was run in 52 seconds, the last quarter a little under 26 seconds.

Brian Hernandez said he watched Calvin Borel win many races with rail-riding trips and knew a similar ride could prove the difference, The fact that Dornoch didn't break well from post 1 gave Hernandez the opportunity to take the rail position behind Track Phantom.

It'll be interesting to see how many Derby horses go to the Preakness. I would think Sierra Leone will skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont at Saratoga. I assume Muth will be the morning line favorite at Pimlico

Of the 20 jockeys that rode in the Derby, Adam Bechizza on Epic Ride is the best at saving ground, with BJ Hernandez a close 2nd. The jockey who loses the most ground (rides the widest) is Irad. That's not surprising, much of the time he is on the best horse in the race.

Without knowing the Performance Figure for Mystik Dan in the Derby, and despite the Beyer of 100, I'm gonna say the PF will not be that good considering it was almost an entirely ground saving trip. Not taking anything away from Mystik Dan, but Sierra Leone and Forever Young beat him 9 out of 10 times at this distance.

 

[BTF69]

Sooooo it was yesterday?

I thought it was today.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Sooooo it was yesterday?

I thought it was today.

(Play the 3-2-11-4). Bet the farm.

 

[StoneTempleHusker]

100 Beyer for Mystic Dan

This appears to be an average group of 3 year olds even with Fierceness' 2 huge Beyer numbers. That's not to say some horses couldn't develop later in the year.

Looking at the Derby splits, the last 4F was run in 52 seconds, the last quarter a little under 26 seconds.

Brian Hernandez said he watched Calvin Borel win many races with rail-riding trips and knew a similar ride could prove the difference, The fact that Dornoch didn't break well from post 1 gave Hernandez the opportunity to take the rail position behind Track Phantom.

It'll be interesting to see how many Derby horses go to the Preakness. I would think Sierra Leone will skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont at Saratoga. I assume Muth will be the morning line favorite at Pimlico

Excellent analysis.

Supposedly 'the other' Japan horse in T O Password is going to hang around and run in the Preakness. He probably had the toughest trip of any horse in the Derby, and grinded out a 5th place finish that was well under the radar.

Will be interesting to see who actually ships to Pimlico for the Preakness and those that hold out for the Saratoga Belmont Stakes. And not to mention Muth and some other 'new shooters' waiting in the wings.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

100 Beyer for Mystic Dan

This appears to be an average group of 3 year olds even with Fierceness' 2 huge Beyer numbers. That's not to say some horses couldn't develop later in the year.

Looking at the Derby splits, the last 4F was run in 52 seconds, the last quarter a little under 26 seconds.

Brian Hernandez said he watched Calvin Borel win many races with rail-riding trips and knew a similar ride could prove the difference, The fact that Dornoch didn't break well from post 1 gave Hernandez the opportunity to take the rail position behind Track Phantom.

It'll be interesting to see how many Derby horses go to the Preakness. I would think Sierra Leone will skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont at Saratoga. I assume Muth will be the morning line favorite at Pimlico

Once I get the final PF's from the Derby, and since we are heading to the Preakness in two weeks, I may give my impressions of who I felt should and who I was fairly certain would bounce in the Derby. A bounce is usually pretty cut and dried before the fact. 3 Year olds are either Developing, Regressing or Stabilizing, not much other than those 3 categories. It might serve a purpose for the Preakness, because obviously it will be another field of talented 3 year olds to choose from.

Like I said in an earlier post, Andy Beyer hasn't picked a Derby winner in 20 years, and of course, he loved Fierceness. He's a giant icon in the business, but is hung up on Beyer speed figures which mean nothing.