OT: The Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter itseasyas1-2-3
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There may not have been many KD winners wearing blinkers but didn't Secretariat?
I can only imagine the anxiety caused for a flight animal by not being able to see their normal field of vision in a high stress environment.
Forever Young, Catching Freedom, just a touch......going with it. We'll see what they draw.
Hey dingle, if I recall you seemed to enjoy reading about the personality, herd dynamics of the horses last year because you have a long history of horses. I had not planned to do so this year because, frankly, it takes a LONG time to do, but I think I've changed my mind.
What I probably will do is give profiles on what I think are the main 6-8 contenders, then IF one of the posters happens to like a horse not on that list, I would also do one for that horse in order to provide as much information as I can to try to help. Last year I did the entire field, and franky, every year about 1/2 or more of the field is not even competitive.
BUT, horses like Giacomo, Mine That BIrd, Country House and Rich Strike ALL paid over $ 100.00 to win the Derby so that's 4 horse in 20 years, or 20% winners of the race paying huge, so horses not considered can win occassionally, and so tossing horses out can be a bit dangerous. LOL
I continue to have the feeling someone or some guys eventually will hit something worthwhile as a result of my work here, and that, other than my personal quests, makes this enjoyable.
I know the focus of the board and myself this week is the Spring game, so I will hold off on my thoughts on the importance of the jockeys until next Monday or Tuesday. That post will not be a real long one, but its an important one.
For the next couple of hours I'm gonna be compiling the horses who check 1,2 or all 3 boxes and that might help some of the guys narrow down their list of horses also. I'll post that in a separate topic when I get done with it.
It's important criteria in this race.
It's a report that only comes out about 1-2 days before the race, so time becomes an issue as the race draws nearer.
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You are exactly right. Most of the time blinkers are a negative, but a super horse like Secretariaat wore blinkers, so they did what was needed. Years ago a horse called Lemon Drop Kid had blinkers installed and it turned a really nice horse into the best racehorse in the country for 6 straight races.
A legend of the sport, D Wayne Lukas always has blinkers on every animal, and he's been one of the most successful trainers in history. He also is one tricky dude because he "typically" starts every young horse with NO blinkers for 2-3 races, and then, especially in Maiden claimers, he will add Lasix and blinkers and the horse will run up the track. BUT, the 2nd time that horse runs with Lasix and blinkers he will win and pay anywhere from 30.00 to 50.00, so that's been a profitable angle, that I just gave away, for 15 years.
(Would there be ANY question in your mind those young horses have blinkers on from the very first day they step on a training track and are very comfortable wearing them once he probably wagers more than a couple bucks?)
This is a game based on drugs, equipment and trainer intent.
You are a savant. The detail you go into amazes me. I’ve read a fair amount on herd dynamics and have used some of that in a rudimentary manner. Hell I used it some when I used to hunt deer. When the videos came out explaining equine postures and mannerisms it was an aha moment for me. I saw those as a kid breaking colts but didn’t realize the significance. I pity some of those poor horses who were subjected to a 13 year old”trainer”.
Wishful thinking??
How many football players will succumb to torn ACL's? Neck injuries? paralysis? career ending injuries? concussions?
How many MLB pitchers will suffer arm and elbow injuries?
How many NBA players will sustain year ending ankle and knee injuries?
When athletes and animals compete at high levels, and yes low levels, injuries happen.
It just so happens they put some horses down but no humans.
What a loser comment.
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there will be lots of them that have to be euthanized due injuries in the breeding pasture or just playing with other horses. More will die from intestinal problems caused by parasites. I wish I could die running up and down a basketball court instead of with drool on my chin in a nursing home as most likely will happen. Horses LOVE to run. Horses die in the wild from leg injuries too. It just doesn't get captured on camera. There they'll suffer maybe for weeks before they die.
First of all, LOL on the 13 year old trainer comment.
I'm far from a savant. I collect data over a span of decades and try to make it make sense. The data that I express here, is primarily work product from others. Everyone engaged in a longtime career field collects mental data, they have experience in what has worked, continually tweak it, and constantly work to improve upon it. I just happen to do it with animals and humans.
My personal methodology of wagering on horses, I know is unmatched by anyone. I've taken a contrarian approach for 58 years, I do things, and have "angles" that no one else has ever conceived. Yes, that is bragging, and I don't apologize for it, but I would wager as much money as anyone would want to bet that my level of "angles" and "trainer intent" are beyond their grasp.
The downside to posting next level information on a public site is the reality of when I "give away" an angle, it can be gone forever. Anyone can pick a 5/2 or a 7/2 shot, hell, all you have to do is look at the tote board. The science of what I do leads me to bet on 30/1, 40/1, 50/1, 100/1 horses ON PURPOSE and for reasons I know.
Some of the small time horse trainers are tremendous horsemen, they just don't have a lot of stock to work with. But, many of them have cheap 5,000, 10,000 horses that are absolutely "push button."
I have no problem betting on a small trainer like Tim Martin in a cheap ass 5,000.00 maiden claimer at Prarie Meadows, or Gustayo Amaya at Gulfstream Park in a 12,500.00 Maiden claimer. I know what they do and how they are setting up a horse for a large mutuel. In a bizarre way, I train the horse for them.
In races such as these, the majority of the horses in the race are garbage and half the field is 50-50 to even make it around the track. What's left is 1-2 other potential contenders in a field of 10 horses. When "my guys" are firing, they rarely miss.
You can believe it or not, but there are trainers out there that only fire their horse every 5, 6, 7 outs. In the runup to that indicator race, I just keep my money in my pocket because I know they are not going.
This is an unbelievable sport. And its not for everyone, thousands of men and their families have been ruined by the guy"thinking" he even has a clue and wagering money the family can't afford to lose. The amount of money someone can make is ridiculous. But, you better do your homework.
In general, I am NOT a fan of most horseplayers. A high percentage are good at math, yet, they've never learned, as I often say, "All numbers can be counted, but not all numbers count." Many of the long held beliefs in horseracing are total bullshit.
I used to tell my wife, when it comes to music, I'm like an "idiot savant", and she always said, "Well, you're half right."
Sorry for the diatribe.
I'm still waiting for you to post "these are definitely not my underwear". It's a famous Dustin Hoffman movie line in Rain Man FWIW.
Spoken by a person whose been around horses for decades. When you have 1,000+ pound animals running on genetically thin front legs, bad things can happen, and they do. They don't have to be on a racetrack to suffer a life ending injury.
If you ever want to get "closer" to a horse, just breath in their nose. That's how they remember you.
I loved that show and thought Dustin Hoffman played an incredible role. I'll try to work that comment in at some point. LOLI'm still waiting for you to post "these are definitely not my underwear". It's a famous Dustin Hoffman movie line in Rain Man FWIW.
There's lots of factors. They've started to try to mitigate some of the risk by training modifications. Reducing training and racing for 2 year olds is a step in the right direction. Track construction and conditions plays a role to some degree as well. Obviously when you have an animal that places thousands of pounds of force on front leg body parts at a full gallop that aren't much bigger than a man's forearm, stuff can and does happen.
Plus 2 year olds no longer run with Lasix, And in stakes races, no Lasix is permitted.
While the Lasix can help performance, I don't think it's much of a factor if any in racetrack injuries. I guess I haven't seen any studies on that.
Wow touchy much. I don't care how many horses are put down. Defensive much. Douchy much.
Topic is about horses and Derby, try staying on topic. You're the horse guy right, what's the over/under.
I do.. don't believe in horse racing, dog racing, or any other sport that abuses animals, unless that animal is the human himself.. then I'm all for it.
MMMMMOKAY. Abuses animals. I take it you've never ridden a horse. But it's okay to abuse your wife though right?
riding does not equal racing.. and those racing horses are indeed abused.
You've never even sat on a racehorse. My family owned a couple of racing QHs when I was a kid. It was all you could do to slow them down if you turned them loose and let them run. Horses LOVE to run. About time for you to go "discipline" your wife?
Figure the Over/Under on how long it takes me to put you on Ignore as soon as I type this period
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I have Nikki on Ignore, so not interested in his take. I can just picture him now though, sitting at his computer in Asia with his Cargo shorts and wife beater T-shirt.
A guy can make a case for all three horses. Good luck with the draw.
A week from this Friday, I'll give you some positives as well as a couple of negatives on each horse.
Every single horse in the race does have some positives and negatives, so don't take my comment the wrong way.
Absolutely stick with your own instincts.
I'll agree. Lasix is basically anti-bleeder medication, the hotter the weather, the less effective it is.
Early on the use of Lasix was used to "mask" other illegal substances that trainer was "allegedly" using.
The typical amount of Lasix used on a 1,000+ pound racehorse is only about 1/20th of a teaspoon, and it varies
from racing circuit to circuit. The levels of "tolerable" tested amounts is a real factor moving from Chicage to New Orleans for example.
A level of 1.1% is deemed illegal at one track, but 1.9% is allowable at another track. 1.9% vs, 1.1% is significant.
Trainers use that to their advantage, but the percentage of fans betting on horses has no clue that a factor like this even exists.
Plus, generally only the first 5 finishers in a race horse have their urine tested in a "test barn." If a trainer knows that, and they do, if they intend to have their animal run 6th through 10th and not be tested, how can you even be sure the horse has been administed Lasix that day? Then fast forward to the day the trainer has intent to win, the horse gets the amount alloted. You have to know this shit to be successful in this sport.
Early on the use of Lasix was used to "mask" other illegal substances that trainer was "allegedly" using.
The typical amount of Lasix used on a 1,000+ pound racehorse is only about 1/20th of a teaspoon, and it varies
from racing circuit to circuit. The levels of "tolerable" tested amounts is a real factor moving from Chicage to New Orleans for example.
A level of 1.1% is deemed illegal at one track, but 1.9% is allowable at another track. 1.9% vs, 1.1% is significant.
Trainers use that to their advantage, but the percentage of fans betting on horses has no clue that a factor like this even exists.
Plus, generally only the first 5 finishers in a race horse have their urine tested in a "test barn." If a trainer knows that, and they do, if they intend to have their animal run 6th through 10th and not be tested, how can you even be sure the horse has been administed Lasix that day? Then fast forward to the day the trainer has intent to win, the horse gets the amount alloted. You have to know this shit to be successful in this sport.
I thought they were blinders too - so I have learned something new early on a Friday. Time to pack it up today and start the weekend!🤣
IMHO, Fierceness is either going to win the race or not hit the board. His 3 workouts have been exceptional. He skims over the track and his efficient running motion reminds me of how American Pharoah moved over the track (no, I'm not saying he's the next American Pharoah). I think a mid to outside post (8-15) would be ideal where he could stalk the pace.
We know in a 20 horse field the pace will be honest (46 and change) or possibly faster. I'm hoping for a sub 46 half which should stretch the field out and let a late closer have a less troubled trip down the lane.
No one is talking about the Kentucky Oaks which is one of the better Oaks fields I've seen in many years. I think 5-6 fillies have a legitimate chance to win the race. There will be good value plays in that race.. Hopefully, we have great weather both days.
We know in a 20 horse field the pace will be honest (46 and change) or possibly faster. I'm hoping for a sub 46 half which should stretch the field out and let a late closer have a less troubled trip down the lane.
No one is talking about the Kentucky Oaks which is one of the better Oaks fields I've seen in many years. I think 5-6 fillies have a legitimate chance to win the race. There will be good value plays in that race.. Hopefully, we have great weather both days.
He, and all the others, have a 40% chance to draw a poor post. I agree post 8 - 15 is ideal for his running style. Haven't looked at the pace figures yet, but as you say, there are horses who are going to ship. There are only 6 horses in the field that have a number that could compete with either his Juvenile or Fla Derby win. And 4 of them are serious bounce candidates.
If he wins, it likely deflates all the exotics, if he misses the board, it inflates the prices, so I know what I'd "like" to see.
He's not like the "typical" Derby favorite in that he had one really bad figure, and one so-so figure, normally a Derby winner doesn't have 40% of his starts that are subpar. This comment is referring only to Derby favorites.
If he's not on his game, I think there are 3 horses that can surprise him. But, if gets away well, sits in a nice stalking position, he will be a bitch to beat. Johnny V doesn't make mistakes. Has a lot going for him.
As I recall, you did okay last year in the Derby, and I MAY have been crediting another poster with some of the input you had last year, if I have, it wasn't intentional.
You want me to take a look at the Oaks and tell you what I like, because its a race I never play, so I can be pretty objective in whatever I come up with? Of course, I don't want one single person on here to follow my lead, I want them to win or lose their own money. LOL I know you know the game well enough to make your own decisions. I'll look at the Oaks without having any pace figures, so what you and I come up with could very well be different. Good luck in both races capiche??
Capiche, this post is not meant to sway you either way with Fierceness, it is just some data that I will consider in playing, or not playing that horse.
The Derby favorite the last 12 years has the following results: 12 starts 6-3-2-1 so 50% winners, and 100% in the top 4.
Pletcher has won the Florida Derby 8 times, and had 2 scratch prior to Kentucky Derby race that would have been the betting favorite, his Fla Derby winners record in the Kentucky Derby is 5-1-0-1.
(That includes Fierceness this year that's why 5-1-0-1 = 8 Fla Derby Wins).
His only 2 Derby winners were Super Saver and Always Dreaming, both over a sloppy track.
But now, it gets interesting...
Since 1993, ALL Derby favorites that lost a prep race are 1-17 in the Derby, the lone winner
Street Sense lost a 3 horse photo in the Bluegrass Stakes;
The 9 other Derby favorites in their prep races were 26-26;
In Consecutive Dirt Graded Stakes races Pletcher is 71 starts 19 wins for 26.7%, very good;
However, those 19 wins were by only 7 different horses, 3 males and 4 females;
His other horses were 0-40 in trying to win consecutive Graded races on the dirt;
This is based on his Graded Stakes horses trying to win consecutive Graded races on the dirt.
{Using winning every prep race or losing a prep race as the criteria, for me, the field narrows down to just 5 horses.
Unless we get a Giacomo, etc. result, among those 5, there are only 3 horses having a good enough number to win.}
FWIW
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I'll probably end up using Fierceness in all my wagers, whether on top or underneath. His speed figures show he is clearly the fastest horse in the field. Can he lose the race? Absolutely. An inside post may force Johnny V. to use him earlier to gain position. He may be caught 5 or 6 wide in the 1st turn if given an extreme outside post. I think Johnny V. is a very patient rider who won't move a horse too soon. He usually has his horse in a good position at the top of the stretch.
I'll narrow my tri bet to 6-7 horses and down to 4-5 horses in exactas. I usually don't place win bets since exotic payouts in such a large field are too good to pass up. Even if Fierceness wins going off at 3-1/5-2, a 2nd place horse at 12-20-1 odds will pay well. In 2015, the $2 exacta paid $72.60 with American Pharoah (5-2) over Firing Line (12-1).
IMO, this Derby is easier to handicap than last year where I had 8-10 horses to consider in my exoctic bets.
Just saw the final workouts this morning for some Derby runners. Sierra Leone and Domestic Product (Chad Brown's duo) worked 5F in 1:00.1 and galloped out 7F in 1:26.1. Both horses are built like tanks. Domestic Product held his own in the workout and seems to progressing well. The horse has run in some slow paced races. I don't think his Beyers reflect what he's capable of. I don't have him in my top 6. If he hits the board it will be at a big price, Sierra Leone has that low head carriage and really drops it lower when he stretches out. A P Indy and Gun Runner (Sierra Leone's dad) both had that same low head style.
Catching Freedom and Encino (Brad Cox) worked 5F in 59.2. Catching Freedom is on the small side but has a very efficient running motion. I thought Encino held his own in the workout and was full of himself. There was some thought he might not run in the Derby but after this workout I think he's definitely in. I don't like the quick turnaround (3 weeks) for the horse and will not play him. I think he could be a factor later this summer (Saratoga) and into the Fall. A big, gangly type body,
Catching Freedom and Encino (Brad Cox) worked 5F in 59.2. Catching Freedom is on the small side but has a very efficient running motion. I thought Encino held his own in the workout and was full of himself. There was some thought he might not run in the Derby but after this workout I think he's definitely in. I don't like the quick turnaround (3 weeks) for the horse and will not play him. I think he could be a factor later this summer (Saratoga) and into the Fall. A big, gangly type body,
I am no pro horse bettor, but in reviewing the tape, it’s gotta be either Sierra Leone or Fierceness. Lean toward Sierra Leone if there is a rabbit that goes in like 46 and 1:10 as Sierra Leone will close. If there’s a rabbit and Fierceness just tracks and goes easy… a good shot to win. Expecting both to be in the super
