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OT: The Kentucky Derby

itseasyas1-2-3

Defensive Coordinator
Sep 6, 2021
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Beginning tomorrow, I will do a watered down version of the field entered for the Derby.

I'm not gonna get very indepth like last year, since I had a handful of my "nonfans" that lack interest, understanding or the attention span to appreciate what I was doing. (Once again, I promise not to stick that knife in their backs and force them to read something they have no interest in).

On the surface, it looks like any one of 8 horses are legitimate contenders in the 20 horse field. I don't plan on doing a complete field of personality traits that aid or hinder each horse. If a poster wants some input on a particular horse, maybe a day or so before the Derby I will put something together to honor their request. But, its pointless to do 10 horses that likely have zero shot at being factors.

This time I'll add a couple of components that very few people are aware of. After Tuesday, I won't be adding much to the content as I will be playing some horseraces.
 
I just took a second mortgage for the full value of my house and put it all on T O Password. I'm sure as Derby Day approaches the odds will come down, but I'm locked in.

How could any Nebraska fan bet against a horse with the initials "TO"?
He won't get any of my money, but I wish you the best.
 
I just took a second mortgage for the full value of my house and put it all on T O Password. I'm sure as Derby Day approaches the odds will come down, but I'm locked in.

How could any Nebraska fan bet against a horse with the initials "TO"?
I don’t like him, but there’s a little something to be said for him running semi-uphill in his last prep, so his finishing times and final times can be skewed.

A Japanese horse is going to win the Derby very soon IMO.
 
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I don’t like him, but there’s a little something to be said for him running semi-uphill in his last prep, so his finishing times and final times can be skewed.

A Japanese horse is going to win the Derby very soon IMO.
Ummmm, pretty sure they are just called horses...why does the nationality matter?

Gosh!
 
I don’t like him, but there’s a little something to be said for him running semi-uphill in his last prep, so his finishing times and final times can be skewed.

A Japanese horse is going to win the Derby very soon IMO.
One of those two Japanese horses looks like a real legit threat. Last year with a fair trip Derma Sotogake would have won.
 
Beginning tomorrow, I will do a watered down version of the field entered for the Derby.

I'm not gonna get very indepth like last year, since I had a handful of my "nonfans" that lack interest, understanding or the attention span to appreciate what I was doing. (Once again, I promise not to stick that knife in their backs and force them to read something they have no interest in).

On the surface, it looks like any one of 8 horses are legitimate contenders in the 20 horse field. I don't plan on doing a complete field of personality traits that aid or hinder each horse. If a poster wants some input on a particular horse, maybe a day or so before the Derby I will put something together to honor their request. But, its pointless to do 10 horses that likely have zero shot at being factors.

This time I'll add a couple of components that very few people are aware of. After Tuesday, I won't be adding much to the content as I will be playing some horseraces.
I'll be at a Scottsdale casino and don't know jack about horseracing. I'd take some betting advice on the race.
 
I'll be at a Scottsdale casino and don't know jack about horseracing. I'd take some betting advice on the race.
Until a day or so of the actual race, most of this is preliminary. Then when they shake for post positions, a lot of things can change. Also, I don't tell anyone who to bet on, but I might be able to narrow it down to 3-4-5 horses, then its up to you to decide which one(s) you like based on all the info available the day before.
 
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Howd your analysis measure up last year? Cant remember.

I know i lost 100 bucks!
I'd have to look, but I know I made 300.00 to 500.00 or so on the exacta.

By the way, I would not be the first guy to not win the Kentucky Derby. Andy Beyer hasn't picked the Derby winner in 20 years.

There is nothing about this race thats cut and dried. Strange stuff happens when that gate happens....every single year, and no one can account for what might happen. Including me.
 
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I'd have to look, but I know I made 300.00 to 500.00 or so on the exacta.

By the way, I would not be the first guy to not win the Kentucky Derby. Andy Beyer hasn't picked the Derby winner in 20 years.

There is nothing about this race thats cut and dried. Strange stuff happens when that gate happens....every single year, and no one can account for what might happen. Including me.
I know, just wondering how your top five etc did. Cant even remember what I gambled.
 
Give me your picks and play on Derby day. Will be at track in Dallas for the day
 
I know, just wondering how your top five etc did. Cant even remember what I gambled.
Without looking, I know I felt Derma Sotogake would win at about 8/1. He got completely compromised at the break and instead of being placed in the 5th or 6th position on the turn, he was about 17th? He picked up (passed) horses the entire race and wound up 6th I think, having to run wide the entire 1 1/4 mile. I played the 2 horses that ran 1-2 in Mage and Phil. So, I wasn't that far off.

Derma Sotogake PROVED how good he actually was when he ran in November in the Breeders Cup Classic and ran a nice 2nd to the best older horse in the country in White Abarrio. That Classic field was WAYYYYYYYYY better than the Derby field ever thought of being. Mage won the Derby with a 0 and a clear trip. In the Classic Derma ran a 0. Had Derma had a fair trip, he would have won the Derby, plain and simple. So, he redeemed himself. But, the day of the Derby, he was a victim of the chaos as horses often are in a 20 horse field. And will be this year also.
 
Give me your picks and play on Derby day. Will be at track in Dallas for the day
I'm not giving anybody plays.
I'll post who I like then its up to you to decide if you want to wager a couple of bucks, based on your own judgment.
There are no guarantees in a 20 horse field.
If you don't believe me ask Pelini, cubsker and a few others who play horses.
 
I don’t like him, but there’s a little something to be said for him running semi-uphill in his last prep, so his finishing times and final times can be skewed.

A Japanese horse is going to win the Derby very soon IMO.
Racist against horses. Just when I think your type can't get any lower, you go and completely redeem yourselves. 😜
 
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Always appreciate the work.
Thanks. I actually enjoy the process of trying to solve this unsolvable puzzle.
The same data, that I pay for, is the same data I gladly give away for free when I'm posting in this thread.
If yourself, and a handful of others enjoy the run up to the race, I can ignore the naysayers.
 
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I just took a second mortgage for the full value of my house and put it all on T O Password. I'm sure as Derby Day approaches the odds will come down, but I'm locked in.

How could any Nebraska fan bet against a horse with the initials "TO"?
My next two posts will be long (surprise) and I will list the field of horses from lowest to highest Morning Line odds. First page will be the horses at 20/1 and lower odds, then a break and the 2nd longest odds horse.

On the first page I will explain the pattern of each horse, that somewhat explains why their odds are lower than others.
 
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I don’t like him, but there’s a little something to be said for him running semi-uphill in his last prep, so his finishing times and final times can be skewed.

A Japanese horse is going to win the Derby very soon IMO.
Then after it wins, they'll eat em. Mmmmmmm basashi.
 
My next two posts will be long (surprise) and I will list the field of horses from lowest to highest Morning Line odds. First page will be the 10 lowest odds, and the 2nd page the longest odds horse.

On the first page I will explain the pattern of each horse, that somewhat explains why their odds are lower than others.
This will be the first. This is how to read this information on each horse:
A LOT of numbers here, but if you have the interest, at some point these numbers will all mean something to you.

POST POSITION ,HORSE'S NAME, M/L ODDS, PATTERN AND THEN THE NUMBERS EACH HORSE EARNED IN EACH START.

The first set of numbers prior to the // will be that horse's 2 year old races, the races following the // will be their starts this year. (Haven't proofread this yet, so could be a typo or transposed number(s)).

To explain what the TXT for example: T= New TOP, P= PAIRED TOP, O = OFF, X= X. (will explain in another post).

The horses with an X that precedes their name already have a PF number which makes them to be a contender.
Three horses have a PF number with an * that precedes that number. That number was earned on a synthetic surface.
Number to the right in parenthesis indicates the points of improvement, stagnation, regression from age 2 to 3.
There are 6 horses in () that had either 1 or 3 preps, neither of which is optimal. The best success has been with 2 preps. The number in brackets [] indicates the number of prep races, which I just added and the final number is the PF earned in their running of this Derby. The Indication TOP/PAIR?OFF/X indicates their actual performance.

17. X Fierceness 5/2 TXT 3,12,-1//4, -3, .....(2)>>[2]>>>>>>>>12 in the Derby. X
2. X Sierra Leone 3/1 TPT 9,4//4 ,1.....(3)>>>>>>>>>[2]>>>>>>1 in the Derby. PAIR
4. X Catching Freedom 8/1 TTP 9,9// 7,5,4.....(5)>>>[2]>>>>3 in the Derby. TOP
11. X Forever Young 10/1 TTP 11,8,5//1,1.....(4)>>>>[2]>>>>>>1 in the Derby. PAIR
1. Dornoch 20/1 PPP 10,8,6,6// 6,6.....(0)>>>>>>[2]>>>>>>>11 in the Derby. X
12. Track Phantom 20/1 PPO 9,9,7,5// 6,6,7.....(-1)...{3}>>>>>11 in the Derby. X
7. Honor Marie 20/1 TXP 11,7,5//9,5.....(0)>>>>>>>>>[2]>>>>8 in the Derby OFF
3. X Mystik Dan 20/1 OTO 9,6,14// 9,0,3.....(6)>>>>>[2]>>>>>3 in the Derby. OFF
15. Domestic Product 30/1 XPP 17,7,14//7,7.....(0)>>>{2]>>>>11 in the Derby. X
14. Endlessly 30/1 OPT 18,9,7,9//*8,*6.....(3)..........>>>>[1]>>>>8 in the Derby. OFF
8. X Just A Touch 10/1 TPP //2,2,2.....(NA)>>>[2]>>>>>>>>>>27 in the Derby. X
16. Grand Mo 50/1 PTP 14,10,10//10,6,6 (4)>>>>[2]>>>>>>>19 in the Derby. X

6. X Just Steel 20/1 PXT 14,13,9,2//8,2,7,1.....(1)..>>>[3]>>>>>>18 in the Derby. X
19. Resilience 20/1 PPT 15,7,7//7,6,4.....(3)>>>>>>[2]>>>>>>>>4 in the Derby. PAIR
18. Stronghold 20/1 PPP 8,7,7,7//6,5.....(2)>>>>>>[2]>>>>>>>>7 in the Derby. OFF
13. West Saratoga 50/1 XPP 18,11,10,7,10//11,8,*7.....(0)>>[2>>>13 in the Derby. X
5. Catalytic 30/1 TOT 9//10,3.....(6)..........>>>>>>[1]>>>>>>>>>22 in the Derby. X
10. T O Password 30/1 //5............{1}>>>>>>>>[1]>>>>>>>>>>>>3 in the Derby. PAIR
20. Society Man 50/1 OPT 23,10//13,10,4.....(6).>>>>>[3]>>>>16 in the Derby. X
Free Ride>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>X.

(This now includes the Post Positions as well as updated Morning Line Odds.)
 
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My next two posts will be long (surprise) and I will list the field of horses from lowest to highest Morning Line odds. First page will be the horses at 20/1 and lower odds, then a break and the 2nd longest odds horse.

On the first page I will explain the pattern of each horse, that somewhat explains why their odds are lower than others.
This will be Page 2 of more "mind numbing" numbers. If you didn't like Page 1, you will like this page even less.

Last year the winning PATTERN for the top 4 finishers were" PT, PT, TP, TP. In 2022 it was OP, TP, TP, PO.
Sooo, on paper, if a horse did NOT run a PAIR in either of its previously prep run races, they did not finish in the Top 4.

The winning horse pattern from left to right from 2023 back to 2013 were as follows:
PT, OP, PP, TP, OT, XP, TP, PT, PP, TT. So, in the last 10 Derby's 8 of the 10 winners PAIRED one of their 2 prep races. (80%).
Last year, in the entire field, horses that PAIRED one of their 2 prep races, finished 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,15,17,19.
AND the horses that PAIRED their prep 2 races back ran 1-2-3-4-6-7-15.

In the last 27 Derby's (not including Covid of 2020) these are the NEW TOPS, PAIRS, OFF's and X's earned by 499 horse that ran in those Derby's. @ 500 is a damn nice sample.
TOPS 10.2%.......PAIRED 21.6%.......OFF 23.8%.......44.3%. Between the OFF and X, over 68% of the horses will run poorly.

Horses with 2 preps fared the best: TOP= PF ever, PAIR within 1 pt of previous best, Off 1-4 pts worse, X = 4> worse.
TOPS 16.7%, PAIRED 20.4%, OFF 19.4%, X's 43.5%.
Horses with 3 preps:
TOP 10.4%, PAIRED 24.2%, OFF 27.5%, X's 37.9%.
Horses with 4 preps:
TOP 5.8%, 18.5%, 22.5%, X's 53.2%.
To summarize, the more preps over 2 the lower the win percentage became.
And the horses that ran OFF or X's became a higher percentage from 52.9% to 67.4% to 80.7%.

To spare you from numbers, horses that run a new top in the race BEFORE the Derby ran a new TOP only 4.9% of the time. Those that paired that previous race top were 13.6%. The failures of OFF and X were 81.5%.

At age 3, horses that ran 2 points above their 2 year old top won 18.5% of the Derby's. If paired their previous top 23.5% .
Horses MORE than 4 points above their 2 year old top won had a new top ONLY 4.3% od the time, and their X's = 52.7%.

Using these parameters if a horse checks NONE of the boxes they run a new TOP only 2% of the time. and they X 70%.

IF a horse checks ALL 3 boxes, they run a new top 21.9% of the time, and pair their previous best 31.3% of the time. So, A horse that checks ALL 3 boxes will run a new TOP or PAIR their previous best race 53.2% of the time.

Horses that are unraced at 2 must break their maiden, and then earn enough points to quality for the Derby. Hard.
Only 3.7% earn a new top in the Derby, 25.9% pair their previous top, but when it comes to OFF and X it is 70.4%.

I know, this is a lot of stuff. With respect, if you don't do it all the time, its pretty confusing. Fortunately, as time goes on, I'm able to answer some questions any of you may have.

The last components, middle to late next week, will be the JOCKEYS. And yes, they are a big factor. I do a yearly spreadsheet so I'm able to know which jockeys tend to improve the horse and which ones don't.

The final post will be a day or so before the Derby when Post Positions are drawn.

I know some of you think I'm a little "off" by doing this type of research, but I love the shit out of doing stuff like this. What I'm doing here is exactly what I do for myself. Instead of putting it on a Word document, I'm just posting it on this forum. Other than I don't have to editorialize when I'm doing it for myself.

I hope some of us can win some decent money, but please understand this is a complicated puzzle that has no answer from year to year. If I DO like a horse, trust me, its because I've done a ton of research to arrive at that conclusion. And I can be wrong just like everyone else. Once that gate opens, the rules no longer apply.
 
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This will be the first. This is how to read this information on each horse:
A LOT of numbers here, but if you have the interest, at some point these numbers will all mean something to you.

HORSE'S NAME, M/L ODDS, PATTERN AND THEN THE NUMBERS EACH HORSE EARNED IN EACH START.

The first set of numbers prior to the // will be that horse's 2 year old races, the races following the // will be their starts this year. (Haven't proofread this yet, so could be a typo or transposed number(s)).

To explain what the TXT for example: T= New TOP, P= PAIRED TOP, O = OFF, X= X. (will explain in another post).

The horses with an X that precedes their name already have a PF number which makes them to be a contender.
Three horses have a PF number with an * that precedes that number. That number was earned on a synthetic surface.
Number to the right in parenthesis indicates the points of improvement, stagnation, regression from age 2 to 3.
There are 6 horses in {} that had either 1 or 3 preps, neither of which is optimal. The best success has been with 2 preps.

X Fierceness 3/1 TXT 3,12,-1//4, -3, .....(2)
X Sierra Leone 7/2 TPT 9,4// ,1.....(3)
X Catching Freedom 8/1 TTP 9,1// 7,5,4.....(-3)
X Forever Young 10/1 TTP 11,8,5//1,1.....(4)
Dornoch 12/1 PPP 10,8,6,6// 6,6.....(0)
Track Phantom 15/1 PPO 9,9,7,5// 6,6,7.....(-1)..........{3}
Honor Marie 16/1 TXP 11,7,5//9,5.....(0)
X Mystik Dan 16/1 OTO 9,6,14// 9,0.....(6)
Domestic Product 18/1 XPP 17,7,14//7,7.....(0)
Endlessly 20/1 OPT 18,9,7,9//*8,*6.....(3)..........{1}
X Just A Touch 20/1 TPP //2,2,2.....(NA)
X Deterministic 20/1 TTX 7//2,14.....(6)

X Just Steel 25/1 PXT 14,13,9,2//8,2,7,1.....(1)..........{3}
Resilience 35/1 PPT 15,7,7//7,6,4.....(3)
Stronghold 35/1 PPP 8,7,7,7//6,5.....(2)
West Saratoga 80/1 XPP 18,11,10,7,10//11,8,*7.....(0)
No More Time 85/1 No data available
Catalytic 100/1 TOT 9//10,3.....(6)..........{1}
Hades 100/1 No data avaiable
T O Password 100/1 No data available..........{1}
Society Man 100/1 OPT 23,10//13,10,4.....(6)..........{1}
X Encino 350/1 PTT 13//*13,*7,*2.....(11)..........{1}
That is some amazing stuff man. Not sure I even understand it all.
 
This will be Page 2 of more "mind numbing" numbers. If you didn't like Page 1, you will like this page even less.

Last year the winning PATTERN for the top 4 finishers were" PT, PT, TP, TP. In 2022 it was OP, TP, TP, PO.
Sooo, on paper, if a horse did NOT run a PAIR in either of its previously prep run races, they did not finish in the Top 4.

The winning horse pattern from left to right from 2023 back to 2013 were as follows:
PT, OP, PP, TP, OT, XP, TP, PT, PP, TT. So, in the last 10 Derby's 8 of the 10 winners PAIRED one of their 2 prep races. (80%).
Last year, in the entire field, horses that PAIRED one of their 2 prep races, finished 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,15,17,19.
AND the horses that PAIRED their prep 2 races back ran 1-2-3-4-6-7-15.

In the last 27 Derby's (not including Covid of 2020) these are the NEW TOPS, PAIRS, OFF's and X's earned by 499 horse that ran in those Derby's. @ 500 is a damn nice sample.
TOPS 10.2%.......PAIRED 21.6%.......OFF 23.8%.......44.3%. Between the OFF and X, over 68% of the horses will run poorly.

Horses with 2 preps fared the best: TOP= PF ever, PAIR within 1 pt of previous best, Off 1-4 pts worse, X = 4> worse.
TOPS 16.7%, PAIRED 20.4%, OFF 19.4%, X's 43.5%.
Horses with 3 preps:
TOP 10.4%, PAIRED 24.2%, OFF 27.5%, X's 37.9%.
Horses with 4 preps:
TOP 5.8%, 18.5%, 22.5%, X's 53.2%.
To summarize, the more preps over 2 the lower the win percentage became.
And the horses that ran OFF or X's became a higher percentage from 52.9% to 67.4% to 80.7%.

To spare you from numbers, horses that run a new top in the race BEFORE the Derby ran a new TOP only 4.9% of the time. Those that paired that previous race top were 13.6%. The failures of OFF and X were 81.5%.

At age 3, horses that ran 2 points above their 2 year old top won 18.5% of the Derby's. If paired their previous top 23.5% .
Horses MORE than 4 points above their 2 year old top won had a new top ONLY 4.3% od the time, and their X's = 52.7%.

Using these parameters if a horse checks NONE of the boxes they run a new TOP only 2% of the time. and they X 70%.

IF a horse checks ALL 3 boxes, they run a new top 21.9% of the time, and pair their previous best 31.3% of the time. So, A horse that checks ALL 3 boxes will run a new TOP or PAIR their previous best race 53.2% of the time.

Horses that are unraced at 2 must break their maiden, and then earn enough points to quality for the Derby. Hard.
Only 3.7% earn a new top in the Derby, 25.9% pair their previous top, but when it comes to OFF and X it is 70.4%.

I know, this is a lot of stuff. With respect, if you don't do it all the time, its pretty confusing. Fortunately, as time goes on, I'm able to answer some questions any of you may have.

The last components, middle to late next week, will be the JOCKEYS. And yes, they are a big factor. I do a yearly spreadsheet so I'm able to know which jockeys tend to improve the horse and which ones don't.

The final post will be a day or so before the Derby when Post Positions are drawn.

I know some of you think I'm a little "off" by doing this type of research, but I love the shit out of doing stuff like this. What I'm doing here is exactly what I do for myself. Instead of putting it on a Word document, I'm just posting it on this forum. Other than I don't have to editorialize when I'm doing it for myself.

I hope some of us can win some decent money, but please understand this is a complicated puzzle that has no answer from year to year. If I DO like a horse, trust me, its because I've done a ton of research to arrive at that conclusion. And I can be wrong just like everyone else. Once that gate opens, the rules no longer apply.
Are you using Rags or Thorograph?
 
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That is some amazing stuff man. Not sure I even understand it all.
The terminology and data is something that takes a lot of time, and not everyone has that much time OR interest, and I can't say I blame them.

If you have questions, don't be afraid to ask IM4NU. At some point, I'll likely have the horses all evaluated and see what I come up with. Its impossible to land on too many horses, because post position draw comes late next week and that can completely change the way the race "might" be run.
 
What the hell are blinders?
Not sure if this is a serious question but if it is... they go on the side of the horses eyes to block part of their vision on the side. My belief is that they are used to keep the horse from being distracted by the horse running by their side.
 
Are you using Rags or Thorograph?
I've used Rags a bit, cause they don't take into account trip, weight, wind and the changing track from race to race.
I've been friends for about 30 years with one of the major shareholders, and he's offered me Rags sheets at not cost, but frankly, I don't think their numbers are very good. No question in my mind, TG offers the best turf numbers anywhere, of course, the Derby is a dirt race, so that's not a factor.

Like most guys, I'll use TG, Timeform, a little Brisnet just for pace numbers, and I order a couple of special reports that have been helpful in the past.

For guys like you, cubsker, Huskerpro, myself and others, its a big day. The potential to hit a large score is always there, but it's also a bitch to hit. i always go in with the idea I'll win, and I have had some 5 and 6 figure days on Derby day before, so that continues to hold my interest. Obviously, the two long posts I made makes that pretty clear.

In my initial, just perusing of the numbers, I narrowed it down to about 8 horses, but post position draw can change that in a hurry, right? On "paper" Fierceness ran a 115 Beyer the highest since Bellamy Road in 2005, but guys like you and I know that Fiereceness is a spoiled horse who will get rank early if he has traffic trouble or can't get near the lead. If he gets to the frontend early, he will be a real problem. But, if he draws post 1,2, or the auxiliary gate and its a different ballgame.

Just so you know, and you alluded to this earlier in this thread, that Japanese horse, Forever Young is a total contender, and his trainer Yoshito Yahagi is an elite, world class trainer, He sent 2 horses to the Breeders Cup last year. First one won a million dollar stakes race and paid 10.80, the 2nd one won and paid 108.00. In the Breeders Cup he is 2-2. So, the dude will have that horse ready. A GIANT negative to me is the jockey, he is HORRIBLE. Watch this last 2 races, that kid is all over the saddle in the drive. When he's up and in the stalking position, he is fine, but when he sits him down for the drive, he is terrible with moving all over the saddle, his ass is going up and down bumping the horse with each stride. I shudder to think of that horse being neck and neck in the stretch with Johnny V, JJ, Jose Ortiz, Prat, etc. This would HAVE to be a superior horse to win, under that scenario. But, he is beautifully bred to get the distance, and his overall lineage is top notch.

To answer your question, I use Rags hardly ever, but I use TG more for disqualifying factors than actually pinpointing a horse, although it is good for at least identifying the non-contenders.

Like I said, once that gate opens, the rules no longer apply. Feel fee to contribute as much as you'd like Pelini.
 
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Not sure if this is a serious question but if it is... they go on the side of the horses eyes to block part of their vision on the side. My belief is that they are used to keep the horse from being distracted by the horse running by their side.
There is no such thing as blinders. They're blinkers, with 6 types and they all serve different purposes.
I didn't know if the dude was serious, or I thought it could just be a typo since n and k are close on the keyboard.

Some horses completely transform when they add blinkers, others benefit from removing them. It's a neat little trick for some of the small time trainers in an effort to fool the public. Very few horses have won the Derby with blinkers on, but there have been a handful in 140-150 years. "Generally, its a negative in this race unless the horse has shown large improvement through results.
 
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There is no such thing as blinders. They're blinkers, with 6 types and they all serve different purposes.
I didn't know if the dude was serious, or I thought it could just be a type since n and k are close on the keyboard.

Some horses completely transform when they add blinkers, others benefit from removing them. It's a neat little trick for some of the small time trainers in an effort to fool the public. Very few horses have won the Derby with blinkers on, but there have been a handful in 140-150 years. "Generally, its a negative in this race unless the horse has shown large improvement through results.
You are correct, my error
 
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