Well, I definitely missed this one, so let me have it. lol
OT: The Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter itseasyas1-2-3
- Start date
Thing about dummies like us…
We’ll give a buddy a 4-1 shot we like. Horse loses and the buddy reads us the riot act.
Give a guy a college football team you think has a shot to win at a +400 money line and they lose…”hey it was worth a shot.”
What an amateur, can't believe you didn't predict the 20 to 1 horse!
Actually, he was 17/1. You know horses can be so unpredictable, thats part of the attraction. But, seriously to look at the horse Dornoch it is the equivalent of a 11.0 sprinter who somehow beats a couple of 10.5 guys. The horse had never run better than a 6, and that is pedestrian.
Overall, I had a good day and I never really felt I'd win more than 300.00 or 400.00 in the race anyway. (Thanks for taking it easy on me. LOL).
I'll do some of the anti horseracing fans and probably not post about horses again until the Breeder's Cup in November. Have a good one.
Like I said to GBR, the son of a gun had never run better than a 6 and thats just (until today) never happens in any of the Triple Crown races.
It sucked your horse ran so flat in the 11th, he looked like a standout and just never turned a wheel.
I played Abreu again in the 14th today on the turf. I key boxed him with 2 horses, and true to form he ran 2nd. For the weekend, the trainer went 4-0-4-0. Son of a gun knows how to run 2nd.
I reject the idea that either you or I are dummies.
We are involved in a really difficult sport, by choice. Yes, it sucks to lose some money on a horse(s), but the rush you get when you really nail something is special.
I got hooked on horses 58 years ago by betting 2.00 to WPS on a horse called Heather Honey and got back 14.40. I thought, man, they gonna pay me more than double my money in 1 minute and 12 seconds at a time when I was a 12 year old dishwasher in a restaurant working 40 hours a week and bringing home a check for $ 12.50. I thought maybe my "concept" of counting a horse's stride in the stretch of 770' was a way to identify horses that were one out away.
And that "concept" has almost always rang true for the Derby. When I find a horse that can run its final prep and get from the mile marker to the finish in a 1 1/8mile race in 27 strides or less, I know that horse can win the Derby. Of course, the race, the trip and all that other shit happens but it helps me identify horses that are not shortening stride at that distance.
Today is kind of like the Breeder's Cup, so many quality horses, it just doesn't take much to get beat. That's why I DO love to bet the Derby, a little bit on the Preakness and Belmont and usually a lot more for the BC. But, I make my money betting on lots of 10K claimers, low allowance horses, trainers that are great at dropping their 3 year olds from 3 and 4 year old races into straight 3 year old races, etc.
In those races, you have 10 horses of which 5 or more are 50-50 to break down before they finish the race, then you figure which 2 or 3 horses are not gonna fire today and presto you nailed the field down to "maybe" one horse you really have to beat. Of course, its monotonous and it takes a boatload of time, but there's nothing I enjoy more than analyzing trainer patterns. There's also no easier way to make money, bar none.
With all due respect, I've always felt that "guys like you" and that's not a rip, try to win at these big money races and its a tough gig. If you think about it Pelini, the game is built on claiming races and NW2 allowance races, 2nd out maidens, etc. That's where the real money is for gambling because you can get the overmatches that other people just don't see.
I've been involved long enough to have listened to Jimmy Jackson ( a former unbelievable trainer at Hazel Park, Kee, CD, etc) say, "I can start 'em and stop 'em with what I have in the trunk of my car." Or as I said, when I was talking with Bobby Frankel and Dick Dutrow at the Breeder's Cup when Dutrow said testing would never stay up with modern chemistry. That's of course before he got banned for 10 years for using cobra venom and lots of exotic new concoctions. Its also why Baffert has 10 or more horses a year keel over dead. It's a dirty sport and if you don't take that stuff into consideration it's probably pretty hard to make money consistently.
Since I posted to GBR that I won't post about horses until the Breeder's Cup in November at Del Mar. Let me tell you a couple quick TRUE stories even though my buddy Stone Temple doesn't care for my posting. I used to play Jimmy Jackson a LOT. He would take a maiden and run up the track 2 times at big odds, then add blinkers and go up the track again, but the 2nd time he would win and pay 50.00 like clockwork. Then after a couple more races he would take the blinkers off and run up the track again, then in the 2nd out without blinkers light up the tote board again for another 50-100.00 winner. That is a fact, he caught them coming and going.
He had a filly called Camara Kat that got her doors blown off at Turfway in a low level allowance race, shipped her to Keeneland 2 weeks later and wired the field and pay $ 190.00 to win. I had the exacta with a 70/1 shot that ran 2nd. In my earlier days before the Superfecta came along, I made my money by wheeling my key horse on the top and bottom of the exacta and taking that horse with 4 horses in the 2 hole and those same 4 horses and one other in the 3 hole in the trifecta. It cost all of 20.00 a copy and I hit the repeat button a lot. I've stayed with that for years, and now the Super is hardly worth playing.
Like I said a few weeks ago, take your buddy D Wayne Lukas. When he has a 3 year old maiden special weights horse with 2 outs that has been up the track twice, and drops them into a 30K Maiden claimer and adds blinkers, you're setting on a 50.00 winner. It's what he does, and he's effing good at it. I could give you 500 other examples of "specialists" in this sport, but I don't want to bore you anymore.
With all due respect, do yourself a favor and chart what you're really GOOD at, and then try to refine it, then stay with it. There has to be something that's in your wheelhouse man!! Go back and reflect on your successes, the horses and types of racing where you are most consistently cashing nice tickets, and then refine it even more. In this sport the cashier is never gonna ask you how you came up with that winning ticket.
I appreciate your indulgence if you've continue to read this. I apologize if others don't like what I say, but I'm just offering suggestions to a fellow horseplayer that I'd love to see really reap some rewards from what we both know is a helluva lot of work. I have a buddy on here I'm gonna share a horse or two with, thus far, I haven't sent him anything because when I do, its gonna be special.
All good my man.
And calling us “dummies” was hyperbole.
To be totally honest…it was about 15 years ago when I decided I couldn’t truly go “all-in” on the game for multiple reasons, even though I know exactly what you’re saying about the 10k claimer on a Wednesday being almost the same $$ opportunity as Belmont day.
Either way, I always love the discussion on here. I get it almost nowhere else bud.
I appreciate your outlook and I totally get why only small percentages of the players actually can devote the time to the sport. When your kids are grown and you retire that may provide you with the time you'd like to spend on the sport, assuming the wife doesn't object too much.
You've always struck me as a dude that really gets after stuff, rather it be your opinions on football recruits, kids in school and of course the ponies. Those are all good traits Pelini. With respect to so many posters, they want to avoid controversy, whereas you and I, kong, and lots of others seem drawn to it. As you know, I like to talk about a lot of subjects and I am a looonnngg poster in most cases, but one thing I can talk about for hours and pages and pages of postings is horses. I just know how tough this sport is, and after a dude, a fellow player like yourself, has kind of a tough day, I know how you feel cause I've had my ass kicked many times before. The difference is you have real obligations and I can dive right back in tomorrow and spend as much time as I want to review and try to make plans for a Sunday afternoon of playing horses. I don't take much time off.
Anyhow, this will probably end this thread, and that's cool cause after the Triple Crown its a good time to take a breather. I just hate the small fields everywhere, the chalk is really hard to beat in some circuits which makes so many races unplayable. I don't like to force plays so I can go a couple days and really not be interested in playing anything other than interest bets.
I always enjoy of exchanges on here and I'll continue to hope you spot something that really fills up your pockets and keeps that enjoyment of the game alive for you. Sometimes after a hard day like this, the sport owes you something back. Take care.
I noticed that horse when they paraded and liked him but assumed he had no shot😊
Unfortunately, based on his career performances he's the type of horse I'll consistently try to let beat me, and sometimes they do!! I may go back and revisit how previous horses stuck in the #1 or #2 hole have fared in the Belmont if they skipped the Preakness. I think Dornoch is gonna be an anomoly, but I might be surprised. Since I'm taking a breather today, it will be a fun exercise (well, fun for someone like me).
