I told kong a week ago that I'd do a post about horseracing, so here goes.
I think there are all types of horseracing "fans." There's the once-a-year, Kentucky Derby type fan that shows up at a racetrack with some ridiculous hat and is there to have fun, drinks his or her's favorite beverage, and all in all, have a fun time, generally lose a few bucks. But, fun was the objective of the day.
Other types are the Triple Crown, Breeder's Cup, and big day type fans. They follow horses from May thru June and then don't think about them again until maybe November when the Breeder's Cup arrives. Over the course of those few days, maybe they make a buck or two but all in all, it's about having fun doing a different social activity.
Then there's the weekend bettor. They work all week, go to the track to blow off some steam, and generally lose money consistently at the track. It's kind of like a hobby that they may enjoy, and like most hobbies it costs money.
Next, we move to the horseplayer who may visit the racetrack or simulcast outlet 3-4 times a week. They know more than the occasional racegoer, but not much more.
Once in a while they get lucky and make some pocket change. They win and they don't know why, and they lose and they don't know why. But, they enjoy the game and make up a percentage of every racetrack/simulcast facility.
Then you have the guys who play regularly. They know the trainers, the jockeys, and some of the horses, but overall 99% of them don't understand the game. They think the best horse wins. That may be true in the Handicap and Stakes races, but day in and day out, the favorite will only win 36% of the time. So 64% of the time, the public is clueless.
Many are really smart guys, good with numbers, they just don't know what those numbers mean. They spew a bunch of numbers that don't mean shit.
Typically, they are in a bad mood as if they have to be there.
There will be a pocket of really serious handicappers. Among those types, about 5% actually win. They wager a lot more than the other bettors, they hit big and they lose big. Most of their money comes through a rebate shop that returns a portion of their wagers.
They're not opposed to making really large plays on chalk. To them, a $ 4.00 winner doubles their money. These are the guys who bet $ 100,000.00 to show on an 8/5 horse. Problem is, they've never done the math and don't realize how good you have to be to reap a real profit. The serious guys will shovel $ 1 million a year or more through the windows.
I don't fit in any of these named categories. Over 50 years I've done my own research, and developed my own methodology, and the game has been beatable for decades. And I'm not talking chump change.
I developed a very sophisticated operation, one that took years to build. If this thread gains any traction, I will actually elaborate on how my overall game advanced, but I mostly am interested in helping fellow horseplayers.
Now that I retired about 10 years ago, I have throttled my game down significantly. I used betting horses as a source of income. It was a vehicle. It can be an extremely challenging sport to try to beat if someone doesn't have a full understanding of what the important factors are in picking the winning horse AT A PRICE.
I know there are a handful of guys who post on here who like to gamble on horses, so I'll see if there are things that I suggest to them that can help them elevate their game. If someone seems to be a problem gambler, any suggestions I give will be minimal. They are a special breed.
I'm not here to pick horses or tell you a horse to bet on or anything of that nature. I'm not selling anything. You certainly don't have to believe anything I say either. I'm probably open to answering almost any type of question short of naming a trainer that might be perceived as negative.
Last thing. For over 50 years, I've had a core belief about horseracing, and a similar concept was tweeted by Elon a few days ago. I don't know if it came from the movie The Matrix, or if it's something Musk just said, but I agree wholeheartedly. It goes like this:
What would you do if: The only way to escape the Matrix is to unlearn everything that you have been taught and rebuild your entire belief system on critical thought and analysis?
That say's it all.
