Big Ten Football 2023 Predictions
by Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports
The race to win the Big Ten Conference in the 2023 season starts where it ended the last two years. Michigan is once again the team to beat under coach Jim Harbaugh, and the Wolverines enter '23 with a clear goal of getting to the national championship and bringing a trophy home to Ann Arbor. But Harbaugh's team has plenty of company in the East Division with Ohio State and Penn State both expected to be CFB Playoff contenders this fall.
The outlook in the West Division is a little more unsettled. Although Wisconsin tops Athlon's predictions as the favorite in the division, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota all have enough pieces to push for the top spot. Nebraska isn't ready to challenge for the West Division title under new coach Matt Rhule, but the Cornhuskers will be an intriguing team to watch this fall.
How does Athlon Sports project the Big Ten for 2023? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks the East and West Divisions in the Big Ten for this fall:
EAST
1. Michigan
The path to a Big Ten title runs through Ann Arbor once again. Coach Jim Harbaugh's team is loaded on both sides of the ball, starting with an offense returning quarterback J.J. McCarthy and a powerful one-two punch at running back with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. A couple of additions from the transfer portal will also keep Michigan's offensive line among the best in
college football. The list of concerns on defense is small, as this unit brings back seven starters and features a handful of promising players like cornerback Will Johnson and lineman Mason Graham.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes must reload their high-powered offense with quarterback
C.J. Stroud and three key linemen off to the
NFL. However, the transition period for coach Ryan Day should be minimal. Ohio State's receiving corps anchored by Marvin Harrison Jr. remains the best in college football, and the one-two punch of TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams leads a prolific ground game. The offensive line was a work in progress in the spring and remains a concern going into the fall. Kyle McCord is the frontrunner to replace Stroud, but he will get a challenge from Devin Brown in August. Even if the reloading effort on offense takes longer than anticipated, Day's team can lean a little more on its defense under second-year coordinator Jim Knowles. This unit doesn't have a ton of glaring concerns and addressed some of its needs through the portal.
3. Penn State
The Nittany Lions take third place in our East Division predictions, but coach James Franklin's team isn't far behind Michigan and Ohio State. Quarterback Drew Allar is a rising star and should help to elevate Penn State's passing game to another level after a couple of years of steady play from Sean Clifford. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen form a dynamic pairing in the backfield, and there's plenty of optimism about the offensive line, especially with future first-round pick Olu Fashanu anchoring the left side. The biggest question mark on offense rests at receiver. Can Kent State transfer Dante Cephas help fill the void left behind by Parker Washington and Mitchell Tinsley? Despite losing cornerback Joey Porter Jr and safety Ji'Ayir Brown, the Nittany Lions should have one of the top defenses in the Big Ten. Linebacker Abdul Carter and ends Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson top the list of best players for coordinator Manny Diaz.
4. Maryland
The return of Taulia Tagovailoa (3,008 passing yards and 18 TDs), running back Roman Hemby, and a solid group of weapons at receiver should give Maryland a chance to match last year's eight wins. However, coach Mike Locksley has to rebuild the offensive line (just one returning starter) and continue to generate improvement on defense. The Terrapins allowed 5.01 yards per play last year (down from 5.76), but coordinator Brian Williams needs a couple of transfers to play key roles with the defensive front undergoing an overhaul. The secondary also lost cornerbacks Jakorian Bennett and Deonte Banks.
5. Michigan State
The outlook on Michigan State's hopes of a turnaround in '23 grew more uncertain after starting quarterback Payton Thorne and receiver Keon Coleman opted to transfer after spring practice. The development of promising junior signal-caller Noah Kim could hold the key to the Spartans season and a way to jumpstart an offense that managed only 19.8 points a game in Big Ten play last fall. Improvement in the trenches is a must, and for Kim to succeed, the offense has to do a better job on the ground and restock a receiving corps losing Coleman and Jayden Reed. An influx of transfers boosts the defensive front after Michigan State ranked 12th in the Big Ten in rush defense. However, the secondary is a concern once again, and coordinator Scottie Hazelton has work to do to improve a unit that surrendered over 30 points (30.4) in conference play last year.
6. Rutgers
Can the Scarlet Knights breakthrough and earn the program's first winning season since Greg Schiano returned to the sidelines in 2020? Luring play-caller Kirk Ciarrocca back to Rutgers was a good step forward for a Rutgers' offense that managed only 17.4 points a game last year. Ciarrocca's biggest challenge is to develop quarterback Gavin Wimsatt and a passing game that connected on just 48.5 percent of their throws in Big Ten contests. A couple of transfers will alleviate concerns at receiver, while the strength of the offense rests at running back with Kyle Monangai, Samuel Brown V and Al-Shadee Salaam pushing for carries. Schiano has to plug a few holes in the secondary, but the defense has a chance to improve with the return of seven starters, including linemen Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey and linebacker Deion Jennings.
7. Indiana
Can the Hoosiers recapture the magic from their 2019-20 stretch (14-7) under coach Tom Allen? Although Allen isn't on the hot seat, the pressure is building a bit after going 6-18 over the last two years. A hefty haul of transfers will be counted upon to help right away, including quarterback Tayven Jackson (Tennessee), running back Christian Turner (Wake Forest), and a handful of defenders to help a unit that allowed 33.9 points a game last fall and returns just two starters. Receiver Cam Camper and running back Jaylin Lucas give play-caller Walt Bell a couple of promising playmakers to build around this year.
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WEST
1. Wisconsin
A new era is underway in Madison with Luke Fickell now at the helm. The Badgers should boast one of the Big Ten's top defenses thanks to eight returning starters, but there's plenty of intrigue on the other side of the ball. Phil Longo arrives from North Carolina to implement a version of the Air Raid attack, which is certainly a shift from Wisconsin's previous offensive philosophy. With Braelon Allen a lock at running back, the ground game isn't going to be ignored by Longo, but SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai and an improved group of receivers should give the passing game a needed spark. The Badgers catch both Iowa and Ohio State at home and miss Michigan and Penn State in crossover play this year.
2. Iowa
If Iowa is going to return to the Big Ten Championship Game, it's no secret where the team must improve. After averaging only 17.7 points a contest last year, offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is squarely on the hot seat in a make-or-break season. However, this unit should have some optimism going into '23 thanks to the arrival of Michigan transfer Cade McNamara at quarterback, along with a couple of additions to bolster the receiving corps and offensive line. Running back Kaleb Johnson is also a rising star to watch in the Big Ten this fall. As usual, expect Iowa's defense to rank among the best in the conference. Linebacker Jack Campbell and cornerback Riley Moss will be missed, but defensive back Cooper DeJean is a preseason All-American by Athlon Sports, and there's plenty of talent for coordinator Phil Parker to lean on up front.
3. Minnesota
The Golden Gophers will miss running back Mohamed Ibrahim, but quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis and a loaded group of playmakers in the receiving corps should keep the offense performing at a high level. Replacing three starters along the line (including All-American center John Michael Schmitz) is the top concern on offense going into the fall. Minnesota's defense held teams to just 13.8 points per game last year, but this unit will be tested with just five returning starters and some turnover at each level. The crossover slate - Michigan and at Ohio State - is not kind to coach P.J. Fleck's squad.
4. Illinois
Last year's eight-win season marked the program's best finish since a 9-4 record in 2007. Building off that momentum won't be easy for coach Bret Bielema, however. A defense that led the Big Ten in fewest points allowed (12.8 a game) lost coordinator Ryan Walters and a couple of key defenders, including first-round NFL pick Devon Witherspoon. However, the front remains a strength with Keith Randolph Jr. and Jer'Zhan Newton returning after combining for 26 tackles for a loss in '22. The offense also features its share of question marks with the departure of quarterback Tommy DeVito and running back Chase Brown. Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer is expected to start under center.
5. Nebraska
Matt Rhule's debuts at Baylor and Temple resulted in a combined 3-21 record. Although Nebraska is far from a finished product in Rhule's first year, the guess here is his debut in Lincoln will go better than the ones in Waco and Philadelphia. Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims is expected to start at quarterback after Casey Thompson transferred to FAU, and the skill talent is solid with running back Anthony Grant returning and Billy Kemp IV (Virginia) and Arik Gilbert (Georgia) arriving from the portal to boost the pass catchers. The development of the offensive line and defense (27.6 points a game allowed last season) holds the key to the '23 season for Nebraska.
6. Purdue
Getting back to the Big Ten Championship for first-year coach Ryan Walters is a tough assignment after the departure of quarterback Aidan O'Connell and receiver Charlie Jones. However, the cupboard isn't bare in West Lafayette, and Walters assembled a solid staff to go with a good haul from the transfer portal. One of those transfer pickups should start at quarterback (Hudson Card), with running back Devin Mockobee poised for another standout year under new coordinator Graham Harrell's offense. Walters engineered one of the nation's top defenses at Illinois last season, but there's work to do this offseason after the Boilermakers gave up 27.4 points a game in '22 and return just four starters this fall.
7. Northwestern
The Wildcats' outlook got a little better after spring practice when Cincinnati transfer quarterback Ben Bryant committed for '23. Bryant's arrival is huge for an offense that struggled mightily (13.8 points a game last year) and must replace standout left tackle Peter Skoronski this fall. However, Bryant's arrival won't magically solve all of the offensive issues for a team also losing running back Evan Hull and lacking proven playmakers in the passing game. Coach Pat Fitzgerald is hoping a new coordinator (David Braun) helps a defense that has trended in the wrong direction over the last two seasons. Only five starters are back, but the linebacker unit - Bryce Gallagher and Xander Mueller - is a solid starting point for improvement. After playing for the Big Ten Championship in '20, Northwestern is just 4-20 over the last two years.
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Big Ten Championship Game Prediction
Michigan over Wisconsin
