I can't tell you how much I like this reference.
OT: The CDC's most recent statement on what "could" happen as COVID-19
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Each week the news of the corona virus gets worse and worse...Hoping they find a vaccine sooner than what we’re hearing 12-18 months..
Scary stuff right now..
Scary stuff right now..
I can't remember where I read it, but I recall reading that China's death statistics showed no deaths under age 9? That seems like quite an anomaly and makes me question their validity. Maybe it's true, but especially with how dangerous these kinds of things generally are for infants, I have my doubts.
I don't worry so much for myself, I think I'd be fine since I'm youngish and mostly healthy. My 2 year old son, though, has asthma so I'm watching him like a hawk. Doesn't help that the first case in the US came through Chicago, which is less than 2 hours away.
I don't worry so much for myself, I think I'd be fine since I'm youngish and mostly healthy. My 2 year old son, though, has asthma so I'm watching him like a hawk. Doesn't help that the first case in the US came through Chicago, which is less than 2 hours away.
My brother and I detest those nicknames.
People, please stop quoting mortality rates. They are useless right now. Only half of the roughly 85,000+ cases are considered Closed cases, meaning that the virus has run its course and the person either survived or died. Half (43,000) of those cases are still considered Active cases. Of those Active cases, 18% are considered Serious to Critical.
So literally half of the cases haven't even run their course and haven't been determined yet. You can't have a reliable mortality rate with that many Active cases. We probably won't have a reliable mortality rate for another month or more. Right now it is 7% (6.86) of the roughly 42,000 cases that have been Closed.
So literally half of the cases haven't even run their course and haven't been determined yet. You can't have a reliable mortality rate with that many Active cases. We probably won't have a reliable mortality rate for another month or more. Right now it is 7% (6.86) of the roughly 42,000 cases that have been Closed.
There have been cases where it has risen again in a previously infected patient.
There is also thoughts that people who had probable contact with a carrier, where it was 27 days ago, where they thought they were safe, but after 27 days were confirmed with it.
Some believe this extension of no symptoms after 27 days of knowable contact might show a mutation already.
There is also thoughts that people who had probable contact with a carrier, where it was 27 days ago, where they thought they were safe, but after 27 days were confirmed with it.
Some believe this extension of no symptoms after 27 days of knowable contact might show a mutation already.
I saw a Doctor talk about your point. They think that this anomaly is happening because the innate immunity system that infants have kicks in sooner and is defeating the virus before it gets really bad. They think in the adults the adaptive immunity system is trying to target the virus but since it's new it's not effective and by the time the adult's innate immunity system kicks in it's taken too long and symptoms have progressed too far. That's the gist that I got from it. If someone can expound feel free.
And half the cases haven't been counted because they are mild or asymptomatic. Nearly 100 million people have been exposed to the virus, the noticeably ill have been hospitalized...deaths rates for anybody placed in a hospital or quarantine situation are high for a bunch of reasons. It is very likely that 10 million people have been infected at this point...80k have been hospitalized, 10k serious, 5k critical, 3k deaths. That curve is actually less severe than influenza. The numbers are also skewed because of the cruise situation, the health situation of eastern china when it comes to respiratory health. My feeling is that this thing is pretty endemic in a number of places...but has taken advantage of extreme situations...cities of 11 million, weird religious congregations, cruise ships...you have to understand that the "estimates" for influenza range by 30k every year...that means in America alone there are at least 30k people who die, who are "assumed" to have influenza but we never know because an elderly person with poor heart health, diabetes, or compromised oxygen function can die from a cold, influenza, bacterial pneumonia or a novel virus that is never tested for..the deaths of the young like the soccer player from Iran are troubling...I do wonder if there are some ethnic weaknesses to corona viruses because MERS had such a high death rate in the ME and this one also seems to have a higher death rate in Iran.
Yeah, you're right, the reason why the world's scientists are very alarmed by this virus, and they are quarantining people worldwide...is because they consider it a less serious virus than Type A flu.
Where were these 100 million people exposed, since China has done an excellent job quarantining people?? BTW, your numbers aren't following what scientists are suggesting. They feel this virus has/will have 80% minimal or lesser symptoms, and roughly 20% more serious symptoms. So if 100 million people have been exposed, then we should see 20 million with severe to critical symptoms.
Scientists are very worried about this virus, because we have no antibodies to it. It's a new virus, and since we haven't been exposed to it before, our immune systems aren't prepared for it. They are also concerned, because most think we won't have a vaccine for a year or more. And thirdly, they know it has a long incubation period. At least 14 days, with at least a few people well over 20 days.
People can infect other people for days without even knowing they are ill. And there have been reports that people thought they were through the virus, only to have it rebound and reinfect the host.
THIS is why the different health organizations are very nervous. They just don't know what exactly to expect. Whether it can mutate and survive. Whether it will become a returning virus every year or what.
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I think the writing is on the wall that this one will stick around from year to year. The variable length of incubation and post infection viral shedding in some people almost assures that. HOPEFULLY, this thing doesn't really get rolling here until after school lets out for the summer. Even then I expect it to return with a vengeance in the fall. The key is getting a large enough percentage of the population with some type of either natural or vaccinal immunity. Corona viruses in other mammals generally don't mutate a bunch necessitating changing vaccines so it might be possible to develop a vaccine for at risk people which could be used year after year. As the CDC warns, delivery of care to severely ill people may be difficult if it rips in to us like it did China. Unvaccinated nurses, doctors, lab techs, housekeeping etc will all get sick too.Yeah, you're right, the reason why the world's scientists are very alarmed by this virus, and they are quarantining people worldwide...is because they consider it a less serious virus than Type A flu.
Where were these 100 million people exposed, since China has done an excellent job quarantining people?? BTW, your numbers aren't following what scientists are suggesting. They feel this virus has/will have 80% minimal or lesser symptoms, and roughly 20% more serious symptoms. So if 100 million people have been exposed, then we should see 20 million with severe to critical symptoms.
Scientists are very worried about this virus, because we have no antibodies to it. It's a new virus, and since we haven't been exposed to it before, our immune systems aren't prepared for it. They are also concerned, because most think we won't have a vaccine for a year or more. And thirdly, they know it has a long incubation period. At least 14 days, with at least a few people well over 20 days.
People can infect other people for days without even knowing they are ill. And there have been reports that people thought they were through the virus, only to have it rebound and reinfect the host.
THIS is why the different health organizations are very nervous. They just don't know what exactly to expect. Whether it can mutate and survive. Whether it will become a returning virus every year or what.
IMO it seems that way because you hear it reported form every source out there and every time there's some new news they all report it. We get new stuff every day and frankly I'm glad they're printing the news on it. We need to stay informed and make intelligent choices on where we travel in particular. If I were still in my 30s and a little healthier maybe it wouldn't be that big of a deal to me but I'm not.
What if the general population in the USA and other western countries behave differently, actually start washing hands every time after public interaction, hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes at homes and work. This could spread a lot less than the models suggesting based on prior pandemics without mass Global information readily available.
Poorer countries could be hit harder, maybe not once very hot and humid weather kicks in. Hopefully there's vaccine ready for mass dissemination by November.
1st death from Coronavirus is 10 miles from me - so we go to buy some hand sanitizer today and the selves were bare no sanitizers anywhere - problem is the supplies are not there even if the population was to be responsible. No masks anywhere either
Honestly, even though a lot of people are frustrated with China, because of their eating 'habits/culture,' they actually did an amazing job with their quarantine, and gave the rest of the world more time to prepare. Their people were essentially home quarantined, or there would have been a lot more cases than we have now.
Americans have shown to be pretty responsible with self-quarantining so far, but as we know, there is no way our country will impose a mandatory quarantine. Too many legal issues. I just don't think all people will ultimately be responsible enough to stay at home for 2 weeks, if they are considered in high risk areas. I hope we are surprised by the levels of self-quarantine.
The only thing the OTC masks will do for you is cause you to not touch your face as much, which is a good thing. But the standard OTC masks that are sold won't keep you from breathing the virus if you are around a person that is coughing/sneezing. They get moist within 15-minutes and can let the virus in if you are around a person that is spreading with a cough or sneeze. If you yourself have to sneeze or cough, do so into your bent elbow. Don't cover your face with your hands.
The most important thing is to NOT touch your face with your hands, and to wash your hands for 20 seconds as often as you can. Just don't touch your face in-between washing hands or using hand sanitizer when you can get some. This is the best way to not spread the virus right now.
When the lawyers are getting sick, lawsuits show their true worthlessness, same for judges, their families etc.
Good thing we stopped flights from china awhiles back.
Being smart is simply taking precautions.
It's different when those lawyers and judges, their families and friends become common folk, they then start thinking like common folk.
Not touching your face is easier said than done consciously..
Meanwhile Korea is looking to charge leaders of the church responsible for the massive outbreak with murder, etc
Oh, it's very difficult. That's why we need to start changing habits now, and even carry around a small bottle of hand sanitizer while this virus is still looming.
If you have an itchy nose or eyes, use your hand sanitizer before you scratch. But of course let the hand sanitizer dry before you touch your eyes.
Just ordered some stuff for my son on amazon. Got to my house in 22 hours...how does that affect the transmission of a virus that seems to be as hardy as Covid? Another thing to think about with the Washington state case....it has been in the community for 6 weeks...and yet no massive outbreak...no overwhelmed system. That is an indictment on the virus and its either generally weak symptoms or inability to sustain in an environment that is not southeast Asia. Maybe just lucky.
Actual death rate estimated to be 0.2% to 0.5%. Seems similar to flu
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/least-half-million-people-infected-202153407.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/least-half-million-people-infected-202153407.html
With a mortality rate of 1/10th of 1%, and antibodies likely already onboard, a vaccine available, and knowledge of the common flu, you shouldn't be.
No, it takes time to be passed from victim to victim. No doubt there have been undiagnosed cases there. As the community becomes more aware they'll stop ignoring flu like symptoms and get tested for COVID-19. Hell just a few days ago news broke that Drs had requested the CDC test a patient for COVID-19 and they refused for multiple days. Lo and behold the patient was positive and likely exposed dozens of other people including hospital staff. This will get rolling and the rise in the number of cases will be exponential. I think I've read that one person shedding the virus on average exposes at least 10 other people. There's nothing they can do IMO to keep this from blowing up here. A huge problem will occur when nurses and Dr.s have to stay home from work when they contract the virus. It has already happened in one case where ONE infected person exposed over 123 healthcare workers who are now self quarantined.
Recent story now. Assisted living facility with 108 residents has one test positive. 25 out of 180 staff and 27 out of 108 residents are symptomatic now. This will tell us a lot about how things are going to go in this country. With the death of another Kirkland WA resident from COVID-19 health officials say that it has become apparent that community transmission is occurring. It is likely that all of the care givers and patients in that assisted living facility will become or already have been infected. Then who takes care of the residents? That's the problem with this viral infection with no population immunization.
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I don't see anybody losing their mind here. This has been a discussion of a current event that has worldwide health and economic repercussions. The assisted living center case is the scenario I've warned about for 2 weeks now. As someone with a spouse on the front lines, I am concerned about who will take care of all the sick people when the care givers become sick because they will in large numbers. It appears that there may be a dose dependency component to illness with COVID-19 in the cases where young Drs in China died from it. Hospitals, clinics and nursing homes already struggle to staff their facilities with sufficient number of people from Drs to housekeeping. I'm concerned about how they'll do it when 25% of their staff calls in sick.
I'm concerned that we've been unable to see beyond our own feet.
We need to both take care of ourselves and our neighbors.
We learn this, the next person you come accross isnt a potential threat, but another who may help.
We need to both take care of ourselves and our neighbors.
We learn this, the next person you come accross isnt a potential threat, but another who may help.
Congratulations on your stupid post. And perfectly timed for the death of another person in Washington. I guarantee the families of the 3,000 that have died from this virus would not be impressed.
I have heard that too. *****Conspiracy warning**** Almost makes one wonder if it was engineered to affect the elderly and sick (population control) and not harm the young. If that is even possible to do with a virus.
This is the Coronavirus you're referring to, and not the regular flu, correct? In assisted living, this is not going to go well.
Edit- Just saw the report on the Coronavirus in the assisted living setting.
I appreciate everything you've posted on this topic, @dinglefritz. Please keep info you are able/willing to share flowing!
The question I have: What would have happened if they didn't test the one death? Would all of the symptomatic people just think they had a seasonal infection? I've had symptoms five times since december...had pneumonia in september. Most people have symptoms of something during these crappy winter months. 80% to 99% of the cases do not need to be treated in a hospital yet people are going to flood facilities to try and get antivirals because of fear. They are going to flood facilities, overwhelm facilities, endanger hospital staff merely because of fear. People are going to clear out supermarkets of supplies that could benefit the elderly even though the virus is not any more dangerous to the young and middle aged than the flu. That is problem with fear.
Going to be pretty interesting if
A). SHTF with this virus in the US and
B). An effective vaccine is developed.
Cause there are a lot of folks, several that I know personally, who don't vaccinate their kids because "they don't work" and something about big pharma.
This is pretty much how all illnesses work due to comorbidities and suppressed immune response.
It is theorized the 1919 Spanish flu caused a cytokine storm that killed more young adults due to overresponse of the immune system. The sluggish response by very young and old was protective. This would have been reported if it was the case now.
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