OT: Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter itseasyas1-2-3
- Start date
Family had two tickets: Mage to Show. The other group: Two Phil's to Show. Both groups were happy.
thus begins, and ends, my horse gambling career! It was fun while it lasted.
Ill go to the track a few times in my life and throw some 20s down while drinking beers with the boys, but when it comes to studying and betting, nobody knows nothin and its a crapshoot. You make multiple bets with multiple different horses, which means you really dont know, and then you get lucky or you dont.
Need to get to an actual track, it's been years.
Ill go to the track a few times in my life and throw some 20s down while drinking beers with the boys, but when it comes to studying and betting, nobody knows nothin and its a crapshoot. You make multiple bets with multiple different horses, which means you really dont know, and then you get lucky or you dont.
Need to get to an actual track, it's been years.
Yes, I go to Fonnor Park to have fun, relax, but also very interested in others people's thoughts, theories such as 123 & in his really really deep independent studies! I see what I would call pretty professional track people, who are not interested in trival talks, etc! Only several racing forms & chatter with others that have same makeup! Every year as it racing season starts, I say, " I'm not to get influenced by the tote board"! It's fun! Yesterday I stood next to a nice fella, & we chatted early on but later he said, " I came to the track with $300 & I'm down to $80!" He was quite upset! Money manage I said & he said nothing! The difference between dog races, I said & horse races is dogs can't read!😅😅🤣😊
With all due respect, I disagree. Angel had a near perfect trip, and Mage encountered lots of traffic. Castellano guided Mage beautifully, every time Javier asked Mage to move the horse responded.
At the 9f mark, Phil led Mage by a head, and then a gap of 2 lengths to Angel of Empire.
At the finish line, Mage had overcome Phil to lead by a length and Angel was still 1 1/2 length behind Mage.
Typically, a horse will take 26 strides from the 9f pole to the finish, and in that length of space Angel was only gaining 1/2 length. I think it was day that Mage was just going to be the winner regardless.
After watching the replay and reviewing the results chart, I came away believing that Mage was the best horse yesterday, Phil was a touch better than Derma, and Angel was the 4th best horse along with Disarm.
A visual of Derma soundly hitting the gate when it opened, then being in 14th place to the turn, beginning to move between horses on the backside, and then actually only being 4 lengths behind at the 9f mark tells me that Derma is one helluva horse who got himself in a bad spot right at the start, had to use way too much energy to get back into a good position, and as always happens, just ran totally out of gas.
For him to finish 6th after his start shows the foreign invaders are making up ground on the top 3 year old US horses. (I don't want to seem like an apologist for the horse, over make too many excuses, but if he had the same trip as Phil, Angel, Hit Show and Disarm, he likely runs 2nd. Mage actually had a tough trip and proved to be ever better than I thought he was.)
He is gonna be one helluva handful once he gets some more seasoning. The most impressive horse of the bunch, I know he won, but he didn't do it the easy way. Having said that, if he runs in the Preakness, he has a chance to bounce to the moon. It's likely Phil could have the same fate if he runs. Angel, Disarm and Hit Show, because they came from way off the pace stand to run very well. But, that's prior to my seeing their actual numbers from the race..
Disarm ran a great race, probably not going to run 4th because he had a brush with Raisin Cane at the head of the stretch, but ran a helluva race.
I have to admit,, Hit Show was better than I thought he was. Again, like Angel of Empire and Disarm, this horse had a really good trip and just kept running.
As all the experienced handicappers know, the Derby is so much about the trip and that's what makes Mage's performance that much more impressive.
Javier is a great rider, and if you watch the replay, just watch how Mage keeps responding to everything that Castellano is asking the horse to do. Three or four times in that race if Mage doesn't respond correctly, he likely runs 4th or worse. Kudos to both the rider, horse and the trainer.
Edited: Javier has now improved 4 of the last 6 horses he rode in the Derby. Irad Ortiz, granted he was on a horse that had little chance, has now run 5 Derby's and none of the horses showed any improvement. He has been on some rather short priced horses and yet still hasn't won the race. Arguably the best rider in the country, just hasn't got it done in the Derby. His day is coming, but it's not unusual for some of the greats to
have ridden 10-15-20 times in the Derby and not found the winner's circle.
For future reference, the BEST Derby jockey for improving a horse is actually Julian Leparoux. Granted, he's not one of my favorites, but his results in his past Derby rides is better than any jockey out there. He's a guy to be wary of in the future IF he ever gets on a live contender. FYI.
Okay, I'll put this Derby stuff to bed now.
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That's what made Phil's run so impressive. He hung around the first flight, despite the fast fractions, and was able to gain the lead in the stretch, but was just a little bit short. He's really good, and might turn into a great one with that tactical speed and ability to carry that speed. Rivelli did a helluva job with that horse, and Loveberry did everything to give that horse a chance to win it all. Kudos to all those fellas.
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Always one of my least favorite races to bet.
However, the Thursday, Friday leadup to the Preakness has been one of the most profitable runups of the three Triple Crown races.
If you guys want me to, I'll compile a list a few days before the Preakness and list some of the trainers around the country that point certain horses especially for that day. I did the same thing for the Derby, but with all that I had going on in here, I thought I needed to just try to post about the Derby.
I'm not going to handicap those horses for you, but it's not a coincidence when some trainers show up big on those days when they know a lot of money is being shoved through the windows. As I mentioned in another post, many of those trainers can "point" a horse toward a specific date and have their charges razor sharp and ready to win. Most are not your garden variety $ 10.00 horses either.
Pelini and other horseplayers,
I know I said I was going to put the Derby comments to bed, but I think tomorrow or Wednesday, I'm going to do one more post of the Derby and recap it. The reason I do this every year is it allows me next year to not have to re-research what happened, and let's me get a head start on next year's Derby. It's always beneficial to do each year, so I felt I would share my after-the-fact comments with the room.
When I do post it, my suggestion, at your own discretion, would be to save that post in a file somewhere on your computer, or print a hardcopy that you can keep somewhere and use it for reference next year. You may be surprised at many of the things that seem to ring true year after year.
.I'm actually waiting for the final Performance Numbers on each horse so I can depict, as accurately as possible, the factual manner in which each horse ran. It will show any new TOPS, those horses that PAIRED, and other horses that either ran OFF or X'd. It's more of a compilation of the jockeys performance than anything. Then I can use historical numbers on the percentages that improved or not and see if this was, as I'm sure it will show, a relatively normal Derby.
Pelini, I know you know this, but the reason I'm going to continue to use terms like TOP, PAIRED, OFF or X'd is to familiarize some of the newer guys as to what those terms mean, and why they are important as a base to determine if a horse is a viable contender or not.
Based on Mage's pattern of 3 races headed into the Derby, he was considered to run a new TOP 39%. to PAIR his best figure 30%, to run OFF of only 17%, and to X only 15%. So the numbers heading INTO the Derby clearly showed he likely would run a new top or at worst repeat his last figure. The low numbers in the OFF and X indicated there was little chance that this horse would go backward.
Horses like Reincarnate, Sun Thunder, Raise, Cain, King Russell, Cyclone Mischief clearly showed they had virtually no chance to run a new TOP or PAIR, and in fact, were heavily slanted toward running OFF or X's, of which they all did.
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