OT: Kentucky Derby

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I decided to start this thread a day earlier than planned.

I know there are many guys on here who have little interest in horseracing/The Kentucky Derby, but there are some who will be watching and wagering, so I want to give them all a chance to make comments, ask questions, etc.

Monday, I have my 5-week exam at a Retina Center. I go there, get a needle in my right eye and it affects my vision for most of the day. I know dpnavy and a few others are expecting this thread, so I didn't want them to think I'd forgotten.

Off and on, over the last 10 days I have been working on the Derby, so I think I can answer most questions any of the guys may have. I could have started dumping some data tonight, but the Post Position draw isn't until tomorrow, and as all handicappers know, in a 20-horse field it can really change the way you look at a horse's potential performance.

I'm not going to pick a horse. That's not what I do. However, I can provide a ton of information on individual horses and it may help someone to bolster the reasons they like a certain horse, or it may also dissuade them. I never tell someone how to spend their money.

I will include all their Performance Numbers, indicating if the horse is improving or staying the same, or moving backward headed into the race. I intend to separate the field of horses into about 5 flights once they round the first turn. Probably by Wednesday or Thursday, I will include a personality overview of each horse that will indicate if it's likely that the horse will be able to handle the environment or not.

I'll likely narrow it done to 3-4 horses that are ELITE in terms of physical ability, mental ability, and if they possess an Individual Herd Mentality or if they, in fact, have a Group Herd Mentality. There will be a handful of horses that possess a sensory ability, and that is one of the more important parts of the actual race.

Having said all that, luck plays a huge part in being able to cash a bet for real money in a race with 20 horses filled with chaos.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I decided to start this thread a day earlier than planned.

I know there are many guys on here who have little interest in horseracing/The Kentucky Derby, but there are some who will be watching and wagering, so I want to give them all a chance to make comments, ask questions, etc.

Monday, I have my 5-week exam at a Retina Center. I go there, get a needle in my right eye and it affects my vision for most of the day. I know dpnavy and a few others are expecting this thread, so I didn't want them to think I'd forgotten.

Off and on, over the last 10 days I have been working on the Derby, so I think I can answer most questions any of the guys may have. I could have started dumping some data tonight, but the Post Position draw isn't until tomorrow, and as all handicappers know, in a 20-horse field it can really change the way you look at a horse's potential performance.

I'm not going to pick a horse. That's not what I do. However, I can provide a ton of information on individual horses and it may help someone to bolster the reasons they like a certain horse, or it may also dissuade them. I never tell someone how to spend their money.

I will include all their Performance Numbers, indicating if the horse is improving or staying the same, or moving backward headed into the race. I intend to separate the field of horses into about 5 flights once they round the first turn. Probably by Wednesday or Thursday, I will include a personality overview of each horse that will indicate if it's likely that the horse will be able to handle the environment or not.

I'll likely narrow it done to 3-4 horses that are ELITE in terms of physical ability, mental ability, and if they possess an Individual Herd Mentality or if they, in fact, have a Group Herd Mentality. There will be a handful of horses that possess a sensory ability, and that is one of the more important parts of the actual race.

Having said all that, luck plays a huge part in being able to cash a bet for real money in a race with 20 horses filled with chaos.

 

[dpnavy]

Ah, ha, Trainers,I've only just glanced at the starting group, but, would that would be a starting point or more at the later point deciding between horses? Or am I getting ahead of my self! Relax, breath deep!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Well, I guess I'll be the first one to reply to my own thread. I'm going to give you some of the ways that I use to try to separate two horses, both of whom will be among the favorites, and are also running in post position right next to each other. This will be a lot of numbers.
The two horses are the # 14 Angel of Empire and # 15 Forte. My spreadsheet looks something like this:

14 Prat, F. 5,6,1 (40/1) 4,2,5 (63/1) 4,2,0 (65/1) 3,3,0 (6/1) 2,1,3 (6/1) 3 of 5 16,19,11//9,2,2 5{{7 (T-T-P) 12.1 36.8 101 117
15 Ortiz, I. 3,1,3 (27/1) 1,-1,2 (4/1) 3,1,6 (10/1) 4,2,3 (10/1) 0 of 4 7,20,3,2,2//2,3 8{{0 (P-P-P) 12.5 37.9 103 118

Incidentally, Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz are generally considered the 2 best jockeys in the country.
These are what the numbers show:

Prat is riding the 14 horse, Angel of Empire. He has ridden in the last 5 Kentucky Derbies.
The first set of numbers 5,6,1 (40/1) means the horse he rode IMPROVED in the Derby, despite the horse being 40/1.
The second set of numbers 4,2,5 (63/1) means that the horse did not run as well in the Derby, yet the horse was 63/1 so you could say that the horse probably didn't even belong in the race.

The 3rd set of numbers 4,2,0 ((65/1) ran a much-improved race and ran 2nd was moved to first on a DQ of the winner and paid 130.00 to win.

The 4th set 3,3,0 (6/1) means the horse improved 3 points at odds of 6/1.

The last set of numbers 2,1,3 showed the horse did not run as well in the Derby as its last prep race and the horse had odds of (6/1).

The 3 of 5 means in 5 Derby races he IMPROVED the horse he was riding 3 of 5 races. Which is excellent.

The numbers 16,19,11//9,2,2 are the numbers from the horse's 2year old season followed by //which were the horse's numbers for his 3-year-old season and heading into the Derby.

The next set of numbers 5{{7 means the horse improved 5 performance points during his 2-year-old season and has improved 7 points this year in his 3-year-old season.

The T-T-P means in the last 3 races the horse has run a TOP -TOP- PAIR meaning a very good pattern heading into the Derby. The 12.5 is the time it took the last race to go from 8f (mile) to the 9f marker, and the 36.8 is how fast this horse ran his last 3 furlongs (from 6f to 9f).

The final two numbers are the Bris number and the Timeform Number. I don't consider Beyers.

The numbers for the 15 horse, Forte, you can figure that one out on your own. LOL

Obviously, I do this for all 20 horses including 3 also-eligibles which might draw in.

I have other information regarding which flight I expect the horse to be in at the end of the first turn, the personality profile of each horse, etc. It's fairly extensive.

It occurred to me about 50 years ago, if you were to play this game for a living, you best love working with numbers. And as Einstein said, "All numbers can be counted, but not all number count."

Having said that, I believe I have already landed on the horse that I will be keying on Saturday. He won't be a favorite, he will be anywhere from 20/1 to 50/1.

Guys, feel free to ask questions, tell me who you like or don't like. If this thread is going to be me doing all the posting, its (if it's not already) gonna get pretty boring. By the way, expect typos as my vision is less that good today.

 

[umpy69er]

Well, I guess I'll be the first one to reply to my own thread. I'm going to give you some of the ways that I use to try to separate two horses, both of whom will be among the favorites, and are also running in post position right next to each other. This will be a lot of numbers.
The two horses are the # 14 Angel of Empire and # 15 Forte. My spreadsheet looks something like this:

14 Prat, F. 5,6,1 (40/1) 4,2,5 (63/1) 4,2,0 (65/1) 3,3,0 (6/1) 2,1,3 (6/1) 3 of 5 16,19,11//9,2,2 5{{7 (T-T-P) 12.1 36.8 101 117
15 Ortiz, I. 3,1,3 (27/1) 1,-1,2 (4/1) 3,1,6 (10/1) 4,2,3 (10/1) 0 of 4 7,20,3,2,2//2,3 8{{0 (P-P-P) 12.5 37.9 103 118

Incidentally, Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz are generally considered the 2 best jockeys in the country.
These are what the numbers show:

Prat is riding the 14 horse, Angel of Empire. He has ridden in the last 5 Kentucky Derbies.
The first set of numbers 5,6,1 (40/1) means the horse he rode IMPROVED in the Derby, despite the horse being 40/1.
The second set of numbers 4,2,5 (63/1) means that the horse did not run as well in the Derby, yet the horse was 63/1 so you could say that the horse probably didn't even belong in the race.

The 3rd set of numbers 4,2,0 ((65/1) ran a much-improved race and ran 2nd was moved to first on a DQ of the winner and paid 130.00 to win.

The 4th set 3,3,0 (6/1) means the horse improved 3 points at odds of 6/1.

The last set of numbers 2,1,3 showed the horse did not run as well in the Derby as its last prep race and the horse had odds of (6/1).

The 3 of 5 means in 5 Derby races he IMPROVED the horse he was riding 3 of 5 races. Which is excellent.

The numbers 16,19,11//9,2,2 are the numbers from the horse's 2year old season followed by //which were the horse's numbers for his 3-year-old season and heading into the Derby.

The next set of numbers 5{{7 means the horse improved 5 performance points during his 2-year-old season and has improved 7 points this year in his 3-year-old season.

The T-T-P means in the last 3 races the horse has run a TOP -TOP- PAIR meaning a very good pattern heading into the Derby. The 12.5 is the time it took the last race to go from 8f (mile) to the 9f marker, and the 36.8 is how fast this horse ran his last 3 furlongs (from 6f to 9f).

The final two numbers are the Bris number and the Timeform Number. I don't consider Beyers.

The numbers for the 15 horse, Forte, you can figure that one out on your own. LOL

Obviously, I do this for all 20 horses including 3 also-eligibles which might draw in.

I have other information regarding which flight I expect the horse to be in at the end of the first turn, the personality profile of each horse, etc. It's fairly extensive.

It occurred to me about 50 years ago, if you were to play this game for a living, you best love working with numbers. And as Einstein said, "All numbers can be counted, but not all number count."

Having said that, I believe I have already landed on the horse that I will be keying on Saturday. He won't be a favorite, he will be anywhere from 20/1 to 50/1.

Guys, feel free to ask questions, tell me who you like or don't like. If this thread is going to be me doing all the posting, its (if it's not already) gonna get pretty boring. By the way, expect typos as my vision is less that good today.

thats freaking awesome thank you eagerly awaiting your flights to compare to mine

 

[umpy69er]

15 18 5 in some order

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Ah, ha, Trainers,I've only just glanced at the starting group, but, would that would be a starting point or more at the later point deciding between horses? Or am I getting ahead of my self! Relax, breath deep!

Those are good questions dp. Probably the best place to start is some numbers that show the Brisnet or Timeform numbers. Crazy things can and do happen in this race, just look at last year's race won by an 80/1 shot that I and 99.9% of good handicappers would have just thrown out because his numbers were pathetic compared to the top 10 horses in the race. But, 4 times in the last 25 years a total bomb has won the race, and generally there is really no explanation as to why those horses won. Sometimes the speed is so fast that all the front runners stop and something out of the clouds wins. Other times the race is moderate and more horses have some run left at the head of the stretch. It just happens.

The trainer IS the most important part of the equation other than the horses' actual talent level. But, you take top trainers like Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, and I think collectively in the Derby they are probably 1 for 80.
Almost every year Pletcher has 3-4-5 horses and still manages to lose almost every year except one.

Remember this is a race that each horse is running farther, carrying more weight, running against 19 other good horses, in front of 150K fans, so chaos is always prevalent. Horses get blocked out of the gate and shuffled back, so instead of running 3rd on the 1st turn, they look up and they're running 17th. Their race is over in 20 seconds. If you had bet one of those, you best get mind conditioned for a big letdown.

It's a race I love to bet on because the payoffs can be enormous. A guy can get lucky and play 4 random numbers in the super and take home upwards of a million dollars. This year I expect to bet the least amount on this race that I've bet in probably 10 years, simply because it's a very competitive field. I don't play chalk, but sometimes there is a Big Brown or American Pharoah and you gotta be stupid to try to beat those super horses. You just have to try to structure a wager where you can get a couple of long shots to run in behind them. Because they are going to win.

This year's race is not that type of race. There are multiple horses that can win this race. I try to capitalize on what I call an asymmetrical information gap, meaning I have more information about the horses than the vast majority of people. Will it put money in my pocket? Ask me about 6:30 on Saturday. Do I plan to make money Saturday before the Derby? Absolutely.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

thats freaking awesome thank you eagerly awaiting your flights to compare to mine

Let 'er rip umpy. You tell me yours and I'll tell you mine. We don't have to agree, but I bet we are pretty close.....

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

I really wanted Confidence Game and Two Phils to not get the 3 and 4 holes.

I’ve got some re-evaluating to do.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

15 18 5 in some order

You'll never hear me say bet this, don't bet that. This is a game where YOU get to bet your opinion. Are you gonna box the 3 horses? Are you gonna key one on top of the other two? How would you normally play those 3 in a race of this type? There's no wrong answer here umpy.

 

[huskerfan1414]

Which criteria do you put most stock in?

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I really wanted Confidence Game and Two Phils to not get the 3 and 4 holes.

I’ve got some re-evaluating to do.

Yep, there were about 6 horses really hurt by the draw. Looks like Two Phils is in the top 6-7 to the turn, and Confidence is still faster than half the field. Maybe they get out clean and grab the rail.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Which criteria do you put most stock in?

As much as anything, where do I expect a horse(s) to be at the 9f pole? Typically if a horse is within 3-4 lengths at that point, he has a shot to hit the board. Last year the top 4 finishers were running 1-2-3-4 at the 9f pole, they changed positions during that final furlong, yet they all made the super. The 1f and 3f numbers that I used in my Angel of Empire and Forte example are examples of why I think that the 9f mark is important.

Another important factor is HOW is the horse coming into the race. Is he improving, or staying the same, or going backward? There are 10 horses in this race that have NOT taken a backward step during their entire 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons. That is totally unheard of because we likely have not seen the very best a couple of them have to offer.

But TYPICALLY, horses do NOT move forward in the Derby. You'll see that in an American Pharoah or a Big Brown or a truly special horse. This group doesn't have one special horse in the entire group. A lot of really good horses, but the great ones are coming into this race with -0,-1,-2 type performance numbers that would blow away this entire field.

Really good question.

 

[huskerfan1414]

As much as anything, where do I expect a horse(s) to be at the 9f pole? Typically if a horse is within 3-4 lengths at that point, he has a shot to hit the board. Last year the top 4 finishers were running 1-2-3-4 at the 9f pole, they changed positions during that final furlong, yet they all made the super. The 1f and 3f numbers that I used in my Angel of Empire and Forte example are examples of why I think that the 9f mark is important.

Another important factor is HOW is the horse coming into the race. Is he improving, or staying the same, or going backward? There are 10 horses in this race that have NOT taken a backward step during their entire 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons. That is totally unheard of because we likely have not seen the very best a couple of them have to offer.

But TYPICALLY, horses do NOT move forward in the Derby. You'll see that in an American Pharoah or a Big Brown or a truly special horse. This group doesn't have one special horse in the entire group. A lot of really good horses, but the great ones are coming into this race with -0,-1,-2 type performance numbers that would blow away this entire field.

Really good question.

CAnt find the 1f and 3f numbers you refer to.

How often does a horse win in the derby when “going backward” coming in? Perhaps thats too much work so dont worry if it is.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

You'll never hear me say bet this, don't bet that. This is a game where YOU get to bet your opinion. Are you gonna box the 3 horses? Are you gonna key one on top of the other two? How would you normally play those 3 in a race of this type? There's no wrong answer here umpy.

I'm going to add something to my reply. The first thing you want to do when you get to the track of if you bet online is to MAKE THAT BET. Play those horses the way you intend to play them. So many times a guy will say I'm gonna play a 5-15-18 exacta or trifecta box, then they get to screwing around at the track, they have some losses and then the Derby rolls around and they've exhausted most of their bankroll. If you've studied the Derby and you know that's what you want to play, then do it early.

I know guys who were gonna bet $ 300.00 on the Derby and during the course of the day they blew $ 200.00 on other races then come Derby time and they have to modify downward their wagers and might have hit the race had they kept enough money to play all their combinations.

I guarantee the first thing I'll do Saturday at the track is get my wagers on the Derby in. I didn't spend 100 hours pissing my money away on other races.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

CAnt find the 1f and 3f numbers you refer to.

How often does a horse win in the derby when “going backward” coming in? Perhaps thats too much work so dont worry if it is.

For Angel of Empire it is 12.1 and 36.8 For Forte it was 12.5 and 37.9.

If you use a Daily Racing Form you can do the math based on the 8f to final time. And from the 6f time to the 9f time.

If you want me to, I can do several horses for you, and that applies to all the other guys also. I have the data, I would just have to transfer it from my spreadsheet to post it.

I don't have numbers on horses going backward in the last 150 years, but in the last 6 years ZERO.

 

[umpy69er]

Let 'er rip umpy. You tell me yours and I'll tell you mine. We don't have to agree, but I bet we are pretty close.....

tier 1 10 5 15 6 1 tier 2 14 3 18 4 11 tier 3 19 2 8 7 9 tier 4 17 16 13 12 20

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I really wanted Confidence Game and Two Phils to not get the 3 and 4 holes.

I’ve got some re-evaluating to do.

Pelini, let me tell you something that you probably don't know.
Confidence Game worked out on 4/21 and the next day was put on the Vet's list. There's a 14-day window to get "treatment" and surprise, surprise, the horse comes off the list this Saturday in time to run in the Derby.

By Kentucky rule, "an authorized track veterinarian" can place any horse that looks "unsound or sick" on the Vet's list.
During that 14-day window, they can use intra-articulate injections of corticosteroids for joint soreness, typically the shoulders and hip areas, and they also can use intra-articulate injections of hyaluronic acid which the primary ingredient is for the fluidity of motion. So, in other words, Confidence Game is using the Vet's list to try to ensure he hits the starting gate feeling loosey-goosey.

Along those same lines, Brad Cox has Angel Of Empire, Hit Show, Jace's Road in the Derby, and Wet Paint in the Oaks.
All those horses apparently were unsound or sick also as they worked out, went on the Vet's list and the first day they can run is the Derby. In Wet Paint's case, she worked out the day before and is eligible for the Oaks. It's almost laughable that Cox has 4 Derby/Oaks horses that were deemed unsound or sick. Looks like somebody has a lot of pull with the Kentucky vets. You know what I mean?

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

tier 1 10 5 15 6 1 tier 2 14 3 18 4 11 tier 3 19 2 8 7 9 tier 4 17 16 13 12 20

Are we talking about the same thing? My flights are where I think certain horses will be once they get past the first turn and get onto the backstretch. If that's what you mean, reply yes.

 

[umpy69er]

Are we talking about the same thing? My flights are where I think certain horses will be once they get past the first turn and get onto the backstretch. If that's what you mean, reply yes.

no I was breaking down the talent of the horses and which tier has a legit chance to win sorry

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

Pelini, let me tell you something that you probably don't know.
Confidence Game worked out on 4/21 and the next day was put on the Vet's list. There's a 14-day window to get "treatment" and surprise, surprise, the horse comes off the list this Saturday in time to run in the Derby.

By Kentucky rule, "an authorized track veterinarian" can place any horse that looks "unsound or sick" on the Vet's list.
During that 14-day window, they can use intra-articulate injections of corticosteroids for joint soreness, typically the shoulders and hip areas, and they also can use intra-articulate injections of hyaluronic acid which the primary ingredient is for the fluidity of motion. So, in other words, Confidence Game is using the Vet's list to try to ensure he hits the starting gate feeling loosey-goosey.

Along those same lines, Brad Cox has Angel Of Empire, Hit Show, Jace's Road in the Derby, and Wet Paint in the Oaks.
All those horses apparently were unsound or sick also as they worked out, went on the Vet's list and the first day they can run is the Derby. In Wet Paint's case, she worked out the day before and is eligible for the Oaks. It's almost laughable that Cox has 4 Derby/Oaks horses that were deemed unsound or sick. Looks like somebody has a lot of pull with the Kentucky vets. You know what I mean?

Good info on Desormeaux...thanks.
I just always assume that all Cox horses will be juiced to the gills on these big days and go from there. It's embarassing the stuff he pulls in the Breeder's Cup.

 

[LouisK]

Well, I guess I'll be the first one to reply to my own thread. I'm going to give you some of the ways that I use to try to separate two horses, both of whom will be among the favorites, and are also running in post position right next to each other. This will be a lot of numbers.
The two horses are the # 14 Angel of Empire and # 15 Forte. My spreadsheet looks something like this:

14 Prat, F. 5,6,1 (40/1) 4,2,5 (63/1) 4,2,0 (65/1) 3,3,0 (6/1) 2,1,3 (6/1) 3 of 5 16,19,11//9,2,2 5{{7 (T-T-P) 12.1 36.8 101 117
15 Ortiz, I. 3,1,3 (27/1) 1,-1,2 (4/1) 3,1,6 (10/1) 4,2,3 (10/1) 0 of 4 7,20,3,2,2//2,3 8{{0 (P-P-P) 12.5 37.9 103 118

Incidentally, Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz are generally considered the 2 best jockeys in the country.
These are what the numbers show:

Prat is riding the 14 horse, Angel of Empire. He has ridden in the last 5 Kentucky Derbies.
The first set of numbers 5,6,1 (40/1) means the horse he rode IMPROVED in the Derby, despite the horse being 40/1.
The second set of numbers 4,2,5 (63/1) means that the horse did not run as well in the Derby, yet the horse was 63/1 so you could say that the horse probably didn't even belong in the race.

The 3rd set of numbers 4,2,0 ((65/1) ran a much-improved race and ran 2nd was moved to first on a DQ of the winner and paid 130.00 to win.

The 4th set 3,3,0 (6/1) means the horse improved 3 points at odds of 6/1.

The last set of numbers 2,1,3 showed the horse did not run as well in the Derby as its last prep race and the horse had odds of (6/1).

The 3 of 5 means in 5 Derby races he IMPROVED the horse he was riding 3 of 5 races. Which is excellent.

The numbers 16,19,11//9,2,2 are the numbers from the horse's 2year old season followed by //which were the horse's numbers for his 3-year-old season and heading into the Derby.

The next set of numbers 5{{7 means the horse improved 5 performance points during his 2-year-old season and has improved 7 points this year in his 3-year-old season.

The T-T-P means in the last 3 races the horse has run a TOP -TOP- PAIR meaning a very good pattern heading into the Derby. The 12.5 is the time it took the last race to go from 8f (mile) to the 9f marker, and the 36.8 is how fast this horse ran his last 3 furlongs (from 6f to 9f).

The final two numbers are the Bris number and the Timeform Number. I don't consider Beyers.

The numbers for the 15 horse, Forte, you can figure that one out on your own. LOL

Obviously, I do this for all 20 horses including 3 also-eligibles which might draw in.

I have other information regarding which flight I expect the horse to be in at the end of the first turn, the personality profile of each horse, etc. It's fairly extensive.

It occurred to me about 50 years ago, if you were to play this game for a living, you best love working with numbers. And as Einstein said, "All numbers can be counted, but not all number count."

Having said that, I believe I have already landed on the horse that I will be keying on Saturday. He won't be a favorite, he will be anywhere from 20/1 to 50/1.

Guys, feel free to ask questions, tell me who you like or don't like. If this thread is going to be me doing all the posting, its (if it's not already) gonna get pretty boring. By the way, expect typos as my vision is less that good today.

Great info, Easy, thanks. Why do you not like Beyer but prefer Timeform and Brisnet speed figs?

 

[dpnavy]

Well, I guess I'll be the first one to reply to my own thread. I'm going to give you some of the ways that I use to try to separate two horses, both of whom will be among the favorites, and are also running in post position right next to each other. This will be a lot of numbers.
The two horses are the # 14 Angel of Empire and # 15 Forte. My spreadsheet looks something like this:

14 Prat, F. 5,6,1 (40/1) 4,2,5 (63/1) 4,2,0 (65/1) 3,3,0 (6/1) 2,1,3 (6/1) 3 of 5 16,19,11//9,2,2 5{{7 (T-T-P) 12.1 36.8 101 117
15 Ortiz, I. 3,1,3 (27/1) 1,-1,2 (4/1) 3,1,6 (10/1) 4,2,3 (10/1) 0 of 4 7,20,3,2,2//2,3 8{{0 (P-P-P) 12.5 37.9 103 118

Incidentally, Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz are generally considered the 2 best jockeys in the country.
These are what the numbers show:

Prat is riding the 14 horse, Angel of Empire. He has ridden in the last 5 Kentucky Derbies.
The first set of numbers 5,6,1 (40/1) means the horse he rode IMPROVED in the Derby, despite the horse being 40/1.
The second set of numbers 4,2,5 (63/1) means that the horse did not run as well in the Derby, yet the horse was 63/1 so you could say that the horse probably didn't even belong in the race.

The 3rd set of numbers 4,2,0 ((65/1) ran a much-improved race and ran 2nd was moved to first on a DQ of the winner and paid 130.00 to win.

The 4th set 3,3,0 (6/1) means the horse improved 3 points at odds of 6/1.

The last set of numbers 2,1,3 showed the horse did not run as well in the Derby as its last prep race and the horse had odds of (6/1).

The 3 of 5 means in 5 Derby races he IMPROVED the horse he was riding 3 of 5 races. Which is excellent.

The numbers 16,19,11//9,2,2 are the numbers from the horse's 2year old season followed by //which were the horse's numbers for his 3-year-old season and heading into the Derby.

The next set of numbers 5{{7 means the horse improved 5 performance points during his 2-year-old season and has improved 7 points this year in his 3-year-old season.

The T-T-P means in the last 3 races the horse has run a TOP -TOP- PAIR meaning a very good pattern heading into the Derby. The 12.5 is the time it took the last race to go from 8f (mile) to the 9f marker, and the 36.8 is how fast this horse ran his last 3 furlongs (from 6f to 9f).

The final two numbers are the Bris number and the Timeform Number. I don't consider Beyers.

The numbers for the 15 horse, Forte, you can figure that one out on your own. LOL

Obviously, I do this for all 20 horses including 3 also-eligibles which might draw in.

I have other information regarding which flight I expect the horse to be in at the end of the first turn, the personality profile of each horse, etc. It's fairly extensive.

It occurred to me about 50 years ago, if you were to play this game for a living, you best love working with numbers. And as Einstein said, "All numbers can be counted, but not all number count."

Having said that, I believe I have already landed on the horse that I will be keying on Saturday. He won't be a favorite, he will be anywhere from 20/1 to 50/1.

Guys, feel free to ask questions, tell me who you like or don't like. If this thread is going to be me doing all the posting, its (if it's not already) gonna get pretty boring. By the way, expect typos as my vision is less that good today.

Dp, here, been lurking & doing some home projects! Also checked the weather at Churchill Downs for Sat! 75 at race time, cloudy! Want to read again the info as I just skimmed over first time! Enjoy all contributions I'm seeing! Got a fix today, rewatched Calvin Borel on the rail with Mine that Bird!

 

[HuskerDrew]

I like Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and Two Phils

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Got a hot tip: Lucky Number Slevin

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

no I was breaking down the talent of the horses and which tier has a legit chance to win sorry

No need to be sorry, we were just using a different terminology.

Good info on Desormeaux...thanks.
I just always assume that all Cox horses will be juiced to the gills on these big days and go from there. It's embarassing the stuff he pulls in the Breeder's Cup.

I always hate when a trainer, or athlete gets bigger than the sport. On a Cox sidenote, Verifying is not on the Vet's list.
I still see this race as tougher than shit to hit. So many good ones are so close.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Good info on Desormeaux...thanks.
I just always assume that all Cox horses will be juiced to the gills on these big days and go from there. It's embarassing the stuff he pulls in the Breeder's Cup.

I went back to 2016 and with Confidence Game, Desormeaux will be bringing his 4th horse to the Derby. With the exception of Sonneteer in 2017, who was 40/1 and found trouble at every turn, all the others have ran very well.
As you know, he brings in well-seasoned horses.

2023 Confidence Game 13,13,12,12,9//7,2
2018 My Boy Jack 10,8,7//7,1,1,1,2 ran 5th at 7/1
2017 Sonneteer 14,9//9,11,7,6,5,8 ran well back at 40/1
2016 Exaggerator 3,8,3//2,2,0,0 ran 2nd at 5/2

Sonneteer lacked any real number power, but the rest, including Confidence fit in with the top horses in this Derby.
He obviously doesn't show up just to be in the big show, he does come with a purpose. Clearly by the numbers from each horse's 2 year old and 3 year old season, the only one who showed little development was Sonneteer. The rest, including Confidence Game have shown strong improvement during their 3 year old season.

After taking a closer look, and I know you hate the #4 hole, but it looks like if he can get out "clean" this horse has every right to be in the first flight once they get on the backside. Phil looks to be in the 2nd flight, assuming he can avoid trouble in the run to the turn. Anyhow, good luck Pelini, I know you're coming to play.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Great info, Easy, thanks. Why do you not like Beyer but prefer Timeform and Brisnet speed figs?

Louis, if you've had good success with Beyer's, by all means stay with it. I've always found Beyer awards some cheap high numbers to speed balls who get an easy lead over lesser horses and elevate their Beyer.

You can find a $ 30,000.00 claimer that has Beyers equal to some handicap horses, whereas in real life, any handicap horse would crush that claimer like a bug.

Beyer doesn't take into account ground loss, weight carried and the way a track changes during the race day.

Andy have made a fortune with his Beyers, but he's paying guys $10 bucks an hour to watch and rate the race. Not exactly my cup of tea.

In this race, almost every horse is going to lose ground. Some will be 2w, 3w, 4w, 5w, 6w, 7w, 8w, 9w, 10w on the turns and Beyer just hasn't ever accounted for ground loss or weight carried. Those are 2 tremendously important factors in this race.

You add in the size of the field, the quality of the field, horses running farther than they've ever run, carrying more weight than they've ever carried, and its easy to understand why some REALLY GOOD horses are going to run 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th on Saturday. Ground loss can be a killer.

Good luck Louis.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Dp, here, been lurking & doing some home projects! Also checked the weather at Churchill Downs for Sat! 75 at race time, cloudy! Want to read again the info as I just skimmed over first time! Enjoy all contributions I'm seeing! Got a fix today, rewatched Calvin Borel on the rail with Mine that Bird!

One of the great rides in Derby history!! I loved how emotional he got after the race saying how much he wished his Dad was alive to see what he just accomplished.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I like Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and Two Phils

I'll use 2 of them somewhere in my superfectas.

 

[Redmich]

welp .. it looks like Wild on Ice won't be contending

Wild On Ice euthanized after injury in Derby prep

Wild On Ice has been euthanized after fracturing his left hind leg in a workout at Churchill Downs.

www.espn.com

I distinctly remember my 6 year old daughter learning the word euthanasia after hearing it on the 2008 broadcast while Eight Belles was being put down on the track

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

You'll never hear me say bet this, don't bet that. This is a game where YOU get to bet your opinion. Are you gonna box the 3 horses? Are you gonna key one on top of the other two? How would you normally play those 3 in a race of this type? There's no wrong answer here umpy.

Another thing guys. If any of you want me to calculate certain type bets for you, just let me know and I'll tell you how much that type of wager will cost.

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

Louis, if you've had good success with Beyer's, by all means stay with it. I've always found Beyer awards some cheap high numbers to speed balls who get an easy lead over lesser horses and elevate their Beyer.

You can find a $ 30,000.00 claimer that has Beyers equal to some handicap horses, whereas in real life, any handicap horse would crush that claimer like a bug.

Beyer doesn't take into account ground loss, weight carried and the way a track changes during the race day.

Andy have made a fortune with his Beyers, but he's paying guys $10 bucks an hour to watch and rate the race. Not exactly my cup of tea.

In this race, almost every horse is going to lose ground. Some will be 2w, 3w, 4w, 5w, 6w, 7w, 8w, 9w, 10w on the turns and Beyer just hasn't ever accounted for ground loss or weight carried. Those are 2 tremendously important factors in this race.

You add in the size of the field, the quality of the field, horses running farther than they've ever run, carrying more weight than they've ever carried, and its easy to understand why some REALLY GOOD horses are going to run 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th on Saturday. Ground loss can be a killer.

Good luck Louis.

Plus Beyer will backfit and change his numbers down the road at times. That annoys me.

 

[LouisK]

Louis, if you've had good success with Beyer's, by all means stay with it. I've always found Beyer awards some cheap high numbers to speed balls who get an easy lead over lesser horses and elevate their Beyer.

You can find a $ 30,000.00 claimer that has Beyers equal to some handicap horses, whereas in real life, any handicap horse would crush that claimer like a bug.

Beyer doesn't take into account ground loss, weight carried and the way a track changes during the race day.

Andy have made a fortune with his Beyers, but he's paying guys $10 bucks an hour to watch and rate the race. Not exactly my cup of tea.

In this race, almost every horse is going to lose ground. Some will be 2w, 3w, 4w, 5w, 6w, 7w, 8w, 9w, 10w on the turns and Beyer just hasn't ever accounted for ground loss or weight carried. Those are 2 tremendously important factors in this race.

You add in the size of the field, the quality of the field, horses running farther than they've ever run, carrying more weight than they've ever carried, and its easy to understand why some REALLY GOOD horses are going to run 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th on Saturday. Ground loss can be a killer.

Good luck Louis.

Thanks. So do Timeform and Brisnet take ground loss into account? I know the sheets do but just confirming.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Thanks. So do Timeform and Brisnet take ground loss into account? I know the sheets do but just confirming.

I don't think they do. I feel Timeform primarily rates the horse based on his performance of a race, and Brisnet uses a PAR for the race indicating if the pace were fast, slow, or just average.

If you want to get real ground loss numbers, you gotta pay real money to one of the professional sites. Or in my case, you actually know how to watch a race. LOL

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

Also starting to worry about Two Phils as the “wiseguy” horse and taking a ton of $$. Too many people that I somewhat respect like him.

Other than Super Saver(and I’m pretty sure that was the Borel factor) , I can’t remember a horse that got pounded down from the ML actually winning.

I get that a winning ticket is a winning ticket, but we all know this game is about VALUE.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Also starting to worry about Two Phils as the “wiseguy” horse and taking a ton of $$. Too many people that I somewhat respect like him.

Other than Super Saver(and I’m pretty sure that was the Borel factor) , I can’t remember a horse that got pounded down from the ML actually winning.

I get that a winning ticket is a winning ticket, but we all know this game is about VALUE.

As I said in my opening post, I'm going to include a very comprehensive report on each horses' personality, and how it helps or hinders him during the race. First, I'm going to give an overview of HOW the author of the report arrives at certain conclusions. He is without question, the authority regarding what a horse's mannerisms actually mean. So, the words that I write about each horse is not my words, but the words from someone who is next level/next level in his analysis.

He has watched every single race from every single horse in the Derby and he has watched those multiple times, he will highlight things that 99.9999% of us have never even thought about. Can he be wrong? Of course. I liken his report to that of an insurance actuary. That actuary knows that within a given age group, X number of individuals will perish is a given year, he just doesn't know which individuals it will be. The same thing with the Derby, we ALL know there will be a certain number of horses that experience trouble from the beginning to the end of the race that will play a part in defeating that horse. We just don't know which horses it will involve. Chaos and unknown causes.

He will use terms like IHD, Individual Herd Dynamic, GHD which is Group Herd Dynamics, sensory values, stair climbers, and terms most of this room is unfamiliar with. When he uses those terms to describe the ability of a given horse, I will try to explain why he uses that term. Any way you slice it, this is some really cool stuff. I've read his reports for the last 13 years, so I have a fairly good understanding of what he is stating.

My "plan" is to begin with the profile on Forte since he will likely be the betting favorite and some in this room as well as thousands of others will collectively wager a ton of money on this horse. Please understand the analysis of Forte is 3 pages long and I will have to edit down, but I will make sure to include anything that he feels is important.

After I do the profile on Forte, I am then going to do both Confidence Game and Two Phil's, primarily because Pelini got blindsided by having both his horses draw inside posts, which is not where you want to be in this race. I'm hopeful those two profiles will help Pelini either bolster his reasoning for playing one of both of those horses, or if nothing else, it could include him taking a different look at a horse or two that he found worthy of wagering on.

In essence, I wanted to give Pelini a head start since I know he's a horse player, and this is a race where a person can make a lot of money, if good handicapping and luck is on their side.

I hope to do around 5 horses each day so by Friday i wil have been able to include a profile on all 20 starters that may help some folks make a more informed betting decision. So my next post will be the profile on Forte.

If I do a poor job of writing about a horse, or if you need me to elaborate a little more, let me know and I'll try to supply as much information from the report as I can. Some of the reports on the horses deemed to have little chance of winning will be about one page. When I write the profile, I will only do one horse and that will be that post, so I won't be doing super long reports on every horse.

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

Wait, WTF happened with that 3rd person nonsense?!

Are we in Highlander or something?!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Wait, WTF happened with that 3rd person nonsense?!

Are we in Highlander or something?!

I'm not sure I know what you're talking about? What do you mean 3rd person nonsense?

Also, I don't know wtf Highlander is...

Explain it please.

 

[PeliniTheCrutch]

I'm not sure I know what you're talking about? What do you mean 3rd person nonsense?

Also, I don't know wtf Highlander is...

Explain it please.

Thought you were talking about yourself as "he".

My bad.