The report is actually a lot more comprehensive on each horse, but I did have to edit them down or else this site would run out of ink. Plus, there's always the chance of paralysis by analysis.
Among all the guys in this room, the first guy I thought of that would enjoy this aspect would be you. Among all the fellas in here, you have so much hands-on, working knowledge of horses and that they DO have minds of their own.
The key of course, is having an understanding of each horse and trying to find what makes them tick.
Like any other athlete, I love horses that are really athletic and smart.
I'm one of those few oddball types who very closely watch the ears on each horse as they begin to enter the track, because it kind of tells me what the horse is thinking.
I'm responding to my own reply here, because in reviewing the horses I profiled yesterday, I did manage to omit Kingsbarn, and he is a potential factor, so I will include Kingsbarn now.
KINGSBARN Profile: Undefeated and lightly raced, he enters the Derby with a promising Herd Dynamic development pattern. He's not as battle-tested as we would like, but he has passed a series of incrementally harder tests, building on each race while exhibiting some elite athletic traits. He was purchased for $ 800K at the Fasig-Tipton sale, and in his training he ran 2 furlongs in a breathakingly fast 20.3 seconds.
He debuted in Jan at Gulfstream and in his first race going 1 mile he drew post #2. He broke straight from the gate, but the jockey had to tap the brakes early when another horse came over in front of him. Not to be deterred, he calmly redirected to the inside and looking very fluent moved up to within a length of the pacesetter. He wanted to take over the race at that point, but he was hemmed in and had to wait the entire turn. At the head of the stretch, he split horses, and they both seemed to shy away from Kingsbarn, feeling his presence.
In is second out at Tampa Bay, he watched as a frantically rushed horse ran the opening quarter in 22.79 and he settled in 3rd place. He definitely shows an IHD and he is unique because he doesn't rush into space. At the half mile pole, the rider gave him a slight nudge and in a very responsive, forward minded move went right to the lead. As he opened up a 2 length lead in the stretch he appeard to "reach back" for competition and that caused a little drifting in the lane. When the jockey cracked him twice with the whip, he released from the group and won by nearly 8 lengths.
His next start was in the Louisiana Derby, he was in post 6, there was not much speed in the race, so Kingsbarn went right to the lead. Jace's Road (Derby horse) tried to press him from the outside but Kingsbarn had a 1 length lead and was "scissoring back" to feel where the group was, he then settled beautifully and looked relaxed and confident on the lead. In this race, he was setting a very slow pace, very slow pace. At the head of the stretch, rider Prat must have loved the move of the horse when he barely moved his hands and Kingsbarn immediate went into a higher gear. He won by 3 1/2 lengths under a hand ride.
Kingsbarn's sire, Uncle Mo, was a brilliantly fast horse who could also set the pace and finish fast. Kingsbarn has that measured energy distribution, and we think he can get the 1 1/4 mile. He is an extremely agile, athletic horse. He's competitive, light on his feet, and has a clean, balanced stride. His mental efficiency has looked great so far. His transitions have been clean, and we've not seen one ounce of stress in him yet. Despite his lack of experience, we think he's well prepared for this race in terms of running style.
Two things that are missing are a heated battle against a top horse, and a really fast paced race. Those are measured threshholds he has yet to pass. The Derby is likely to test him in terms of physical speed. He is still ascending the Herd Dynamic ladder, and it is a lot to ask for a horse, but this horse may possess the ability to take a major step forward in the Derby.
My comments: For an unraced 2 year old this horse, beginning of the year, has shown tremendous development. His Performance Figures are 9,4,3 all accomplished using little effort from the horse. He's really green compared to the top battle tested, elite horses in this field, but do really know HOW good this colt "could" be? I don't. He has rider, J Ortiz who is near the top of the elite jockeys, and as a sidenote, in 5 Derby rides this jockey has IMPROVED 4 horses. That's impressive, although every year is a new year.
This horse is coming into the race off of a TOP-TOP-TOP and its unknown what type of race he may throw come Saturday.
He could very easily melt under the pressure, he may come eyeball-to-eyeball with one of the truly elite IHD/GHD animals and decides he wants no part of that gig. Or this horse might have several more gears that he hasn't had to show, and we could have another American Pharoah on our hands. It's probably one of the other. Is it likely he is ready to go shoulder to shoulder with Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Forte or Derma Sotogake and walk away or dig in and prove what he really is? It's hard to tell, but its intriguing as hell, and I'll probaby have to find out the hard way. LOL With the morning line odds of 12/1 that is too low for me to get that excited, but I likely will include this horse somewhere in my exotics.
By now, it should be clear why I consider this to be such a difficult race to handicap. Almost every single elite horse likes to come from off the pace, and we all know there will be gate issues, ground loss on one or both turns, and just the already mentioned chaos.
When I write, for example on Derma Sotogake "a repeat of his Dubai win makes him the likely winner", it does NOT mean I think this horse is the winner, it simply means if he duplicates his last effort he could be the winner. I could've said the same thing about Tapit Thrice and Verifying, two horse along with Derma Sotogake who have the same BEST Performance Figures of all the horses in this race. It does NOT mean any of those three will repeat their last figure because of the environment, the size of the field, the length of the race, overall quality of the field and just the loss and ground that can beat any particular horse in this race.
Earlier this week, I had already committed to wagering LESS money in this Derby than I have for probably a decade. I think the race is that tough. The things is, if you bet a "speed horse" and he has gate issues and is shuffled back the start, you are a screwed goose and you know it in the first 30 seconds. By the same token, if you play a mid-runner and he gets stuck long term in the pocket, you could run out of room before that horse gets to run his race, lastly if you're playing a deep closer, and that horse is 5w and 5w on the turns, that horse will likely be a no-show. Its just a tough, tough race to be super confident in any one horse. Good luck to all.
www.cnn.com
