OT: Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter itseasyas1-2-3
- Start date
went back at +800 but contingent on Tapit Trice & Angel of Empire running
placing these via a bookie and not twin spires or similar so that's why
Some of it is genetic selection. I’m amazed by how fine the bone structure has gotten in some Thoroughbreds.
The turf stat surprised me but I think some of that is the inconsistency of the surfaces. I didn’t see any numbers comparing artificial surfaces to dirt. That last turn gets a lot of horses as they tire. Kind of like how human athletes sustain more ligament injuries as they tire.
The amount of force applied to a running horses lower legs is in the thousands of pounds and many times greater than the weight of the horse. Then you add to it the added centrifugal force of rounding a curve.
I've had to go in twice now and change my wagers. Lost a big part of my wagers when Skinner scratched, and now with Forte being out it has moved Derma to 7/1 and thats barely acceptable. As a result, the amount I'm playing on the race keeps getting smaller and smaller.
Always in my world: The lower the odds, the less I wager. The higher the odds, the more I wager.
AOE and Tapit at 9/2 and even Derman at 7/1 are no value to me in this field.
Gonna play the race, but no where near the excitement level when you look at a key like Skinner (win or lose) because when you key that 20/1+ on top, real good things can happen. LOL
Totally agree. I have a chart for all the tracks and the degree of angle into the turns. Fonner Park and the 5/8th mile tracks are much tigher than the mile ovals, and is super tight compared to the sweeping turns at Belmont.
Just so you know, the track record at Santa Anita on the turf at 6 1/2f is 1:10.2. So that would beat Orphan Kist by almost 110 yards. LOL So 1 length being @ 5' would beat Orpan Kist by about 22 lengths.
Going whole hog (LOL) in R3 1-5/1-5-12-14/1-5-12-14 Mostly for shits and giggles
close, but no cigar. right horse, wrong order. it finished 14/5/1
I needed the 5 ahead of the 14 there too. It would have been BS if they took him down with that little contact, but I was rooting nonetheless, and I’ve seen lesser fouls get taken down.
Amazing these top thoroughbreds! 👏! Majestic animals ! The thrill of victory & the agony of defeat!😊
Wasn't sure what time the actual race was so I recorded it. Good grief, NBC is as bad with this as they are with the Olympics. I'm sure some may like all the fluff but not me
Had all 3 horses in my tri with Mage running 2nd and 3rd. Played a $5 exacta box and threw Mage and put Derma Sotogake in. That's horse racing.
Fast pace start to finish
Clear there was no real top-end talent in the field, so the emergence of an unknown with exquisite physical traits over relatively known quantities wins going away (take notes haters/losers)
3 & 14 will be ones to watch going into Preakness, assuming they participate
Clear there was no real top-end talent in the field, so the emergence of an unknown with exquisite physical traits over relatively known quantities wins going away (take notes haters/losers)
3 & 14 will be ones to watch going into Preakness, assuming they participate
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First Mission, Cox's horse who won the Lexington Stakes, will take some money. I think Hit Show is on the improve.
I sucked out with a $ 5.00 box with Mage and Phil. Derma could not have had a more disastrous start. He literally took a left turn out of the gate, never had a chance, although he ran pretty well to about the 1/8th pole.
Tough race as we all knew it would be. I'm glad Phil held on over Angel of Empire, otherwise I would have take the goose egg today.
I thought Kingsbarns ran well until the real running began. I really thought Verifying would run better, but like I said earlier in the week, there will be some really good horses than finish 15th thru 20th, actually thru 18th I guess with the scratches.
I know the feeling about having a horse you like and putting him in the wrong slot. I've told my wife forever, it's so hard to account for every single spot and I had Disarm on one little superfecta in the 4 hole, but I missed the with Phil cause I had him in the 3 hole. Whaddaya do.
Angel ofEmpire was closing fast. That will be a horse to reckon with. That was my favorite horse just from watching the parade. I didn’t see where he came from in that mess. Too many horses.
He did everything his profile said he might be able to do, including getting out clean. Guys, its such a tough race. I hope I didn't cost people too much money. Like I said, I had a $ 5.00 box with Mage and Phil that got about 800.00 and played about 300.00 in the race, so I'm gonna take it. But, I can promise you, fellas like Capiche, Pelini and myself don't play the Derby to try to win 5 bills.
Didn’t have Mage anywhere.
14/3 would have made it a good day for me.
14/3 would have made it a good day for me.
Looked strong at the finish. Kudos to you for being able to pick a couple out of that mess. My thought during the parade was that this was the race to pick a likely looking long shot.
Nice hit on the exacta. I knew a few of my horses, Verifying and Kingsbarns, were in trouble when I saw that 45.73 opening half. And everyone said it was going to be a more moderate pace this year compared to 2022.
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The best part of the race for me was that I didn’t have any money on it so I could just watch em try.
Tough game Pelini. I had a Mage/Angel/ALL tri. Most of my wagers included Derma and I had him written off 20 seconds into the race. I even had Rocket Can in the 2 and 3 hole on 4 tickets. I don't think he turned a wheel.
Thanks. Earlier today Johnny Velasquez thought they would go 22/45. I did have a touch more confidence in Mage and Phil since the speed was mostly holding all day.
I guess guys like you, Pelini and I will take another crack in the Preakness.
BTW, if a particular trainer shows up during the Preakness week, we need to have one of you fellas figure how to get a private chat room, because that cowboy comes to play.
Thanks, I would have felt much better if Derma would not have taken a left turn out of the gate. I'm guessing, if people read the profiles, some of them landed on him and he was finished with any chance in 20 seconds.
That's why I got stuck on Mage, Verifying, Phil and Kingsbarns cause I thought at least of a couple of them could get out clean and have a chance at a decent trip. Of course, in hindsight, Verifying and Kingsbarns ran each other into defeat which opened the door for Mage and Phil. Funny how this game works sometimes.
Weren't they some beautiful looking athletes? I was a bit surprised they all seemed to be pretty calm considering all the people and noise.
Guys, I'm gonna be outta here for a few hours, gotta watch some UFC. See how my son's friend, Henry Cejudo fares in the main event against Sterling. Both a couple of tough little sob's.
I know it's redundant, but I had top 3 horses, but each in different 4 horse exactas! Happy that some of you did good! I enjoy seeing happy people from Venezuela! Enjoyed all of us on here and looking forward to Preakness! Wonder how large the field will be! To the front, "fix bayonets "!! Ha😊
Agreed. Another 10-20 yards and he's maybe the winner. Waited too long for the afterburner??
AOE ran his race and got a good setup IMO, but Mage was just better today.
Two Phil’s likely ran the best race cutting into a fast pace with an early move.
Dogwood Stable and Cot Campbell. That sums up about all I know about horse racing.
