Covid 6.0
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Did the curve start arcing before lockdown measures could have any effect? Is that why the models were so far off and then so far off again after revision.
https://www.professorhinkley.com/blog/why-is-oregon-still-on-lock-down
https://www.professorhinkley.com/blog/why-is-oregon-still-on-lock-down
Lombardy is one region in Italy...it is about 16% of Italy's population but has 39% of the cases and 56% of the deaths in Italy from early reports. It has a 33% positive test rate compared to 18.4% across the country for Italy.
Using current CDC data the US has 331,000 cases approximately. Of those cases 119,000 are in New York, 37,500 are in New Jersey (rounded on both). That is 47% of the US cases in one region. Of the approximate 11,000 deaths, 5,500 are in New York and 1,000 in New Jersey, 59% of deaths in the US are in one region.
Combine the two and we have 51,500 in the Lombardy region, 156,500 in the New York/New Jersey region for a total of 208.000 cases out of the 1.3 million worldwide (minus China who's numbers are BS). Death wise we have 9,200 in the Lombardy region and 6,500 in New York/New Jersey for a total of 15,700 out of 75,000 deaths worldwide (again minus China).
So 16% of the cases and 21% of worldwide deaths out of 0.6% of the worlds population. (Around 10 million in Lombardy, 19.5 million in New York and 9 million in New Jersey, for a total of 38.5 million out of 6.4 billion outside of China)
I don't recall having posted a plan, but by all means, please link if I have, happy to admit if I was wrong.
I think it IS important to use social distancing, limit public gatherings and to slow the spread. I have said repeatedly our data we are using is skewed by large pockets. I've said we have to get better at data.
They are determined to get as much of that $1200 and unemployment money back.
The govt is here to help you! They don't want you to be burdened by money!
The govt is here to help you! They don't want you to be burdened by money!
extorting money from citizens: the one thing the gov't always has plenty of time and resources for.
This is old news, yes it happened, but that was last week. As to state to state, that too is being coordinated, more old news.
Its always been a state issue, though through the feds theyve corrected all of this old news.
So, your info is 180 off, and old, and since corrected.
I haven't followed Oregon...but "lockdowns" can be skewed, look at Missouri, local orders were announced in St Louis, Kansas City and Springfield on March 21st-23rd, the governor then made a statewide order on 4/3 (using announcement dates, not dates they went into effect).
Some people self isolated and practiced social-distancing earlier than local numbers. That's a good thing.
As far as why the models were off? My logical guess is data from China is heavily flawed, and the Lombardy region of Italy skewed the numbers significantly.
It can't happen.
The majority are men over 70, which is something like 70% of all deaths, and they usually have two or more current conditions.
There arent enough to fit those numbers and hold that curve.
This virus gets the low hanging fruit,nce gone, morbidity rates drop
The only stats that matter are critical and deaths. Cases are wildly inaccurate. You are taking the data of the places that were late in taking action, as they were the first or most vulnerable to being hit hard. This doesn't mean everywhere else won't eventually experience the same issues. That is like someone from Lincoln in 1918 saying the Spanish Flu only affects large armies of troops, then only effects troop carriers, then only infects troop camps, then only infects slums, then only infects large cities, then only infects towns, then only infects villages..then you are infected. There is certainly a critical mass of people who have to be infected before the hospitals are impacted...but that mass can and will happen in many more places over time. Even a state like Nebraska is seeing a continual increase in cases, not a decrease...eventually that mass will hit a point where health care is stressed.
Can't answer simple questions, huh?
Not surprised.
Next will come one of your insults, I'm sure.
I understand extrapolation perfectly well....thanks.
All I was trying to say was that we'd easily have 100,000 fatalities by the end of May without measures in place, and how easy that would occur by explaining it the way I did.
And you'll notice GBRforLife1 doesn't offer how I'm wrong....only declarations and insults.
It also has over 100,000 Chinese citizens in that region whom most went to china for newyears and came back.
The other regions of italy simply don't have the ability to put together those chinese businesses that were in the Lombardy region, thus a concentration of the virus with little spread early on.
The condensation of infected people in this region so early,with no travel bans sent this area over the top.
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seems to me you do not. doubling rate is a measure of extrapolation, which takes much more than just # of days then x2 into consideration.
you're dismissing all of those variables and saying it's easy to get to 100k deaths if all of those variables stay constant from now until May 31st.
they will, of course, not stay constant for even the first 2 weeks of that exercise, so what you're doing is a completely meaningless point-in-time study then saying 'see? look!'
there is exactly no basis in predictive math, which by definition must account for variables, at all. that's why your simple math, which is correct (everyone can double numbers and look at a calendar), is not applicable to this issue.
We are getting data and it is pretty scary. Recent study from UK inspected 2000 critical patients.
25% were younger than 50...
50% were between 50-70,
Data wasn't exclusively skewed towards obese..most were normal weight or slightly overweight...
FOUR percent had comorbidities.
77% were men!
18% died that only received basic respiratory assistance
63% were put on a ventilator within 24 hours
50% mortality rate if you enter critical care...this has been consistent with chinese data from January.
For comparison mortality rate for other critical cases from viral pneumonia is 20%.
Many relatively healthy, energetic people will die from this over the next year.
We need data on vaping and smoking because the sex imbalance isn't consistent with influenza...men have much higher rates of hypertension as well...2x higher than woman so either high blood pressure, smoking, or some other genetic difference is the cause.
https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/03/04/Covid-19-Request-For-Early-Cmp-Data-Faqs
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You and I have bumped heads going through data, and as it changed daily.
I have yet to see the perfect statistician, where their past work is impeccable,while riding a bike and shooting skeet without missing.
There were shortages?
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ne...andemic-only-to-later-auction-them-off-report
So, instead of replacing them once they had this 'extra' money?
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ne...andemic-only-to-later-auction-them-off-report
So, instead of replacing them once they had this 'extra' money?
I live in Oregon. I don’t think the blog that was linked is accurate at all. It’s a reference to Gilligan’s Island and is likely just a political hit piece. The mediums is akin to bleacher report in 2012.
here’s a discussion or it:
CNN's Don Lemon needs to resign or be fired. When a national news anchor inciting anger and saying "how much more of this are you going to take" before you do something to stop him, that crosses the line. That's nearing time for a visit from the FBI to discuss the limits.
You really didn't have to tell me that you've voted democrat your whole life. I excuse it a little only because I know what the slant of ALL news, print and TV is so far left it makes Obama look like a right wing zealot.
I think the FBI is tasked with investigating threats.The secret service
So you assume he votes the way he does because he’s been brainwashed by the media? Funny, I assumed it meant he cares about people. I assumed he cares about roads, schools, health care and infrastructure. That he cares about more than just his checkbook, but maybe your are right, he’s probably just been brainwashed by the big bad media, except the right wing ones, they are different somehow.
voting Democrat: a sure indicator you care about people!
voting Republican: you only care about money and that's bad!
perhaps generalizations aren't the best way to understand people's individual stances on things.
there are plenty of studies that show, over time, persistent welfare payments (a Democratic party staple - 'we care about people!') are the worst thing for individuals and their families.
there are also plenty of studies that show cutting taxes (a Republican party staple - 'look at my checking account!') as a vague & general policy does nothing to spur the economy.
who votes for who is a personal choice that often times is a useless marker by which to judge one's character.
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Am I a horrible person if I'm laughing at the story that just broke showing New York auctioning off a bunch a ventilators? Stockpiled a bunch, couldn't afford to maintain them, then auctioned them off in '16. This is awkward...how are they going to blame that one guy at the top over this?
Well said. Perhaps it is fair to say the individual being attacked might not have voted the way he did, simply because he was brainwashed by the evil liberal media.
Another of his posts debunked that reiterated what I’ve been saying, playing with incomplete numbers can lead to bad models.
https://www.covidqa.com/2020/04/why-is-oregon-still-on-lockdown.html?m=1
The biggest problem with Hinkley's analysis is the annotation he wrote over in his graph (and I have circled below): as of April 4th, illnesses between 3/25 and 4/4 may not be reported yet. And yes, I’ve also used recent data, but I have cautioned also that the numbers can a will shift due to difference in data collection across the states and world.
Oh, they will. I am sure Adam Schiff has mountains of evidence that Trump/Russia were involved.
Whatever, like some reddit user is more credible than some random, politically biased dork on Twitter.
So...do you disagree that 100,000 fatalities would be easy to hit by May 31st if no protective measures were put in place, and we had continued on as normal...which is ultimately what this argument is about (and what people like GBRforLife1 seem to think we should do)?
And...I get what you;re saying. Maybe tell GBRforLife1 not to be so intellectually lazy and not just argue that my math is wrong.
I am sure you know because you seem intelligent, but seriously this crap of people being in one party or the other and having vastly different amounts of empathy is stupid. The vast majority of people care about other people. They may have different opinions on approaches for how to help, but it it so tiring to see people painting a broad stroke over either party.
There are whacko zealots on both side, but for the most part the majority of US citizens are good people and care.
This isn't directed towards just you. It is all over this thread. It is honestly sad and mostly driven by a very minor group of outliers.
Sorry, it just gets old.
So kinda related... Restaurants that feature buffet style eating will be a thing of the past... Right?
I don't really understand your use of the word 'easy'. If you're asking if it's likely that doubling rate holds precisely true for the next 8 weeks, I'd say absolutely not, simply due to the amount of variables involved.
could be shorter, could be longer, but it being exactly the same is very unlikely. turns out predicting the future with so many unknowns is hard.
I understand and my post really was tongue in check, because I am so sick of the crap. Accusing someone of being brainwashed by the media because they vote different than you. Wanting media hacks from one side arrested, while wanting ones from the other side to help run the country. This extreme partisan stuff has gotten way out of hand and I know I have been throwing gas on the fire, but some of the hypocrisy is insane.
Trying to model the spread from major cities where people live in high rises and commute on public transportation and attend large gatherings is absolutely not going to translate to rural America. People making decisions based of those models and trying to apply them to low-density, rural populations are going to look like idiots. They already have.
Now that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take some action and do social distancing, but we should give local governments the best data possible to make decisions.
I agree that local should be the first to act and have ultimate authority, followed by state, and then federal. This is law of the land anyway. But...people are misinformed if they think a pandemic virus is going to skip them because they are rural. The urban areas contributed to cooking the pandemic, but now that it has started and viral mass have been "industrialized" by millions of humans it is inevitable that every community will have it. Evidence points to a single person/few people being able to infect 40-50 people in certain settings such as a church choir...3 days of being contagious w/o symptoms, contagious for up to 2 weeks, and the virus can sit in air for 3 hours, and sit on surfaces for up to 17 days. The same rules that started the lockdown are in place...the virus hasn't changed or weakened, and the American curve is still exponential. The news has tired of reporting on it because people have stopped clicking the bait so they are moving on to other stuff.
Lincoln Nebraska saw a 400% increase in mortality in 1918 during the month of october...nebraska had 4000 more deaths than normal that same autumn. I can't think of any place more rural than 1918 Nebraska. This isn't no 1918 pandemic but Covid has shown itself to be pretty resilient when people are careless.
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It is all good. I am sure in real life I could go have drinks with both you and Rambo. I am sure one of you would get a Bud and the other a Cosmo, but hey, who am I to judge.
We are all on the same team in the end.
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