Could you please point out where you discussed hospitals running out of patients and cutting staff hours?
Covid 6.0
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Could you please point out where you discussed hospitals running out of patients and cutting staff hours?
Here's the issue with your view......
Several states, most recently Colorado and Kentucky, have ordered PPE for their health care professionals.....only to have those orders cancelled because they were outbid by FEMA. So, not only are states having to compete for the same gear, they are having to outbid the federal government. I don't get how you seem to think that this is a state issue, and yet are OK with the federal government making it harder for the states to take care of the problem themselves.
The governor of Colorado said that the feds either need to be all in or all out when it comes to acquiring and distributing PPE to the people that need it.
What say you?
Because he said so. And, a guy (Northwood) who can barely type a coherent post knows way more than someone with these credentials:
"Dr. Wittkowski received his PhD in computer science from the University of Stuttgart and his ScD (Habilitation) in Medical Biometry from the Eberhard-Karls-University Tuüingen, both Germany. He worked for 15 years with Klaus Dietz, a leading epidemiologist who coined the term “reproduction number”, on the Epidemiology of HIV before heading for 20 years the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University, New York. Dr. Wittkowski is currently the CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies."
1) What are my straw man arguments?
2) How is my math correct?
You keep saying these things, but don't back up your assertions.
Time to put up or shut up
Hospitals running out sod patients? I have said if hospitals are overrun it would be a bad thing. I have also said that health systems are seeing significant numbers of no shows that is hurting their revenues.
I don’t recall saying anything about cutting staff hours, but many have talked about furloughing non-essential staff.
Here’s where I said on March 21st that one region of Italy was skewing numbers and that the world was using that to drive decisions.
https://nebraska.forums.rivals.com/threads/how-long-will-this-last.264379/page-5#post-5876894
But please do find what you think I posted, certainly not afraid to admit if I was incorrect, unlike some people who post things that are quickly proven inaccurate and then double down when called out with other BS.
I don’t really have a dog in this fight, but I will take a shot at your math.
To get to 100,000 deaths by the end of May a couple things would have to happen.
1. The daily testing rate would have to double by end of day today
2. OR the death rate would have to climb significantly of the next 50 days. Its been stable just under 3%
So for this problems sake, lets assume that the mortality rate holds constant at 3%; nothing has shown that its going to change significantly from that.
1. To get to 100,000 deaths, at 3%, that means by 5/31 there would need to be 3.3M positive cases, there are currently 360,000.
2. With the negative test rate at ~80%, that means there would need to be 18M people tested by 5/31. We are currently sitting at 1.9M
3. There are 54 days until 5/31, so to get to that 18M number we’d need to start seeing 330,000 test a day come in. We are currently sitting at around 150,000 a day.
So back to my original point. Something has to change. TODAY. In order for the math to work out to 100,000 deaths by the end of May
So he’s a data scientist with no actual medical training, he studies medical numbers and produces data.
He isn’t an Epidemiologist or medical, he’s a data guy.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Knut_M_Wittkowski
Why should we listen to him again on transmission of disease and response?
I care about the economy and the hole we're digging ourselves in and I think you're being super dramatic. Every time you leave your house, whether alone or with a loved one, you're all risking death. Since I refuse to live in my house the rest of my life and don't expect my family to either, I am willing to risk it. If you want to stay inside then have at it. ...and when the dust settles, and after you factor in everyone who had it (and there is no way of knowing for sure cause most just got over it and were never tested so their data isn't available but we know this to be true) I'm willing to bet the death rate is actually a fraction of one percent. Then look at all their other underlying conditions that many a simple cold would have killed, it gets even lower. Hardly worth killing our economy for, but again, stay inside if that works for you. I don't care,
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Not everyone is buying the "bat" explanation
https://www.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-believes-115000701.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-believes-115000701.html
I appreciate your post, but it seems to me that most of it is more of a "for X to happen, Y needs to take place". That's not the same as the math being wrong.
If that's truly the case. the math not being wrong, how do you get to 100,000 without X or Y taking place?
I full get that we risk our lives and health every time we leave the house. Car accidents...being a victim of crime....falling down the porch stairs and breaking your neck....whatever you want to include in that.
But here's the thing....C19 could eventually kill my father after he has left the house and safely returned back home....or by even not leaving the house, and my mother tracking it back home with her after she's been out.
A cold is not going to kill my father. He has had a flu shot. That will not, either.
I have high blood pressure. My wife is diabetic. A cold is not going to kill either or us. This might. Yes....many of those deaths are older people. However, damn near everyone over 35 any more has an underlying condition of some kind, and we are starting to see this thing kill younger and healthier people.
And yes....I realize that there are people out there with this that we don't know about, and that the "real" death rate is less than 2.9% ( I won't hammer on the fact that there are also people dying at home, likely from C19, that also weren't tested). I guess I'd rather error in that direction instead of doing nothing, saying "oh well", and seeing hundreds of thousands of deaths that didn't need to take place simply for the sake of the economy.
Yes....I get that my parents, wife, myself, etc. are all going to die someday. I am just not willing to let that happen prematurely for the sake of the economy.
We have had recessions and depressions before, and we always recover. I have yet to have someone I cared about recover from being dead.
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All I said was doubling rate every 15 days. I didn't go into other hypotheticals on testing, etc.
To me, my math being wrong would be me saying, "If there are 15,000 deaths today (4/7), and the doubling rate was 15 days, then we'd have 20,000 deaths on 4/22."
Then stay in for as long as you like. I'm not going to do that.
You don't get to decide - that's why it's natural selection. If you're that afraid you and Jimbo can just lock yourselves away for ever. Problem solved. But that's not a solution for everyone.
This may come as a shock to you, but your parents are going to die whether you're ready or not. It'll happen to 100% of us.
I've already shown how you screwed up the math. Go back and read the posts.
It's like you don't read the actual information posted here. And then get amnesia.
Your handle should be Nebraska Fantasy.
NBC News very happy to promote chinese propaganda during these trying times
That's my point. You never foresaw the hospitals running out work and money due to the lack of patients. Not sure anyone did. But it's a real issue. You have 1 or 2 hospitals in NYC that were busy. The rest are sitting relatively empty and people aren't getting the care they need, because you wanted people to get the care they needed.
Perfect example of how your plan does the opposite of what you wanted.
Also, not a scientist.
Macro numbers are not relevant to micro, the virus spreads locally unless travel sends it elsewhere. Using data from a whole country doesn’t make sense to impact local loads. Much like we shouldn’t use numbers from Nebraska to judge what NYC should do, we probably shouldn’t use numbers from NYC to judge what others are doing.
If it's local, then why is the whole country shut down?
That's cute. You have your own definition of when you'd be wrong separate from reality.
So if it doubles every 15 days how many days until we're all dead?
Also, if it doubles every 15 days how can the survival rate be above 99%?
How can your math be correct but these scenarios end up being false?
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Huh? What is “my plan”? Please link? I am discussing Ambulatory, specialties and elective care, that is not the same as ER/ICU or even general hospital care.
The “whole country” isn’t shut down. Has their been a nationwide order to “shelter in place”? No, if local governments use data from other places to enact restrictions that is their choice. As I said weeks ago, data from one region of Italy is skewing our data models and being used across the board.
I am well aware that my parents, relatives, my spouse, myself, etc. are all going to die someday. I just don't believe that it needs to happen for the sake of the economy when there are things that could have been done in order to reduce the chances of it happening.
And no...you haven't shown how I screwed up the math....but we'll keep it simple....
If we have $20,000, and we double it, is the new amount $40,000? Yes or no.
If we take that $40,000, and double it, is the new amount $80,000? Yes or no.
If we take $80,000, and double it, is the new amount $160,000? Yes or no.
I sincerely hope your answers to all of those questions is "yes", because if you say "no", then you have no room to be telling people their math is wrong.
it's okay to be worried for your family & also not understand extrapolation. we're not judging.
You've advocated for keeping everyone home. That's your plan. Are you claiming you havent?
Its not just one region...lombardy has 10 million...and will see 20-30k deaths....New York has 10 million and will see 20-30k deaths....Wuhan had 10 million and saw 5k-10k deaths even with the strictest lockdown in human history. Is this virus only effective in pockets of 10 million or vulnerable people? Maybe...or does this virus kill 30k of every 10 million...that would be 21 million dead world wide. It is childish to second guess measures that are doing what we thought they would do as unnecessary. And if hospitals need sick people to survive, then we need to think about the meaning of health care. The fact that hospitals need a stimulus package during a world wide pandemic tells me they were making a lot of money on elective procedures. Hell, I tried to be proactive and get an inhaler for when I get sick, just to help with breathing. They were forcing me into a face to face visit, doctor admitted it was policy, and they couldn't prescribe a prescription I had before unless I stood in a waiting room and talked to them face to face. Of course I feel bad for people affected but I think this exposes for profit medicine as being a dangerous thing.
It's almost disgusting the 180 the MSM has done on hydroxychloroquine just to bitch at Trump for something else. I truly think there is a lot of people that hope this virus kills hundreds of thousands just to make Trump and his administration look worse. Even the pandemic can't unite the people as long as our media leads us away.
The nature of pandemic is macro. Now South Korea and China has contained it...is this because of social measures that are impossible for the great USA or is it because they have reached herd immunity? Right now I am jealous of societies who can follow social rules and seem to look out for collective good because they can go back to work, while the USA keeps fighting itself and say "its only the slums", Oklahoma aint New York, juz give um chloroquine...the virus will burn through every community in america...if herd immunity is low it might skip elderly communities but considering how sick america is...it isn't skipping obese, diabetics, hypertensive people. America loses 110k to overdoses, murder, suicide, and 40-90 k a year due to flu. Maybe we just don't care about human life..unless it is an embryo.
They are the counter to fox news..who cares..it is propaganda...I have voted democrat my whole life and will never watch that garbage..it embarrases me in the same way that portions of fox news makes me feel I'm in 1934 germany or some totalitarian state where the government controls the media. I hoped that the left wouldn't resort to the same tactics as the right because they would never be as effective but they have, and they look like the bullied trying to play the bully. .
Sometimes I try to read your posts and cannot get past the first sentence without laughing. Do you believe what China is telling you? Really?
The fact that so many can't see this simple truth is frightening.
I mean both outlets are genius and very rich because they have eaten the apple and tapped into base human desire. We all want to be right, and we feel good...literally release dopamine when our idea..l...s. are reinforced. And we feel terrible when our ideals are confronted. I try to look for simple characteristics, irregardless of if they are red or blue...empathy, introspection, humility, competence...I've seen the president show these at oft times but his base requires the opposite so I generally am at odds with anyone who doesn't exhibit these qualities.
how empathetic & humble of you to generalize a fairly sizable swath of the country this way
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