no, they're not.
they're good coaches when the right opportunity comes along. not from day 1 in year 3 as a coach, like he's expecting Frost to be at NU. he's only looking at the coach's career at the school they won a title, not the entire body of work like he should if he wanted this little exercise to try and mean anything.
it's a case by case basis tried to be squeezed into a one-size fits all model. it's nonsense & isn't predictive in the least.
A couple of things, he said coaches that win titles, do so early on in their tenure, or at least are progressing early on by winning divisions.
Since you don't win national titles at small schools like Toledo or UCF, any coach that is hired by a school capable of winning a national title, would more than likely have had success at a lower level.
How many P5 coaches, that have won national titles, had a losing record in their FCS or Group of 5 (6) careers? I will go out on a limb and say none.
Frost took over a P5 school after have some success at UCF as a head coach. Similar to the success that Meyer had at Bowling Green and then Utah.
The entirety of the situation is irrelevant because, as I wrote above, those small schools don't win titles and any coach that started a smaller school more than likely had significant success, that enabled him to get the big time job.
How many of the coaches that won titles won them at their first P5 job? (Stoops, Meyer, Osborne, Swinney, Schnellenberger, Tressel,). How many had success at lesser P5 schools that parlayed them into elite jobs (Saban, Mack Brown)? How many never had a head coaching job before the P5 job were they won a title (Stoops, Swinney)?
If you look at the data, I would say it is indeed pretty predictable.
I will say it this way, if Frost doesn't turn things around at Nebraska, he more than likely isn't getting a job at Florida or Alabama. He becomes more like Gerry DiNardo or Mike Shula than Nick Saban.