1. i'm not sure the b12 would give those three school anything. more likely, they'd buy clemson and fsu out of their acc contracts. then joining the b12 would greatly increase its media value providing the equity firm growth potential to sell its share at some point down the road.
2. the fundamental here, at least in my mind, is that both the sec and b10 are fully valued already. thus the equity firm sees an opportunity with the b12. that disparity is what's triggering their interest.
3. it takes the equity firm to infuse capital to accomplish #1. conference leadership is using them as a tool to make the conference financially sounder relative to the sec and b10, not unlike a corporation floating stock.
I understand what you are saying as it pertains to the big12.
Let's look at it this way though. Forget school names for this exercise. Let's just say that the sec and b1g are looking to each add 4 schools. That's 8. The big12 is wanting 2 to 4 but let's say 4 to keep it even.
If the big12 loses the big2 in OU and TX, does adding Utah, asu, uofa and cu bring the value back to make up for OU and TX?? You now have 2 more mouths to feed so if it does get back to even, which I doubt those 4 schools move the needle back that far, but now the pot is divided by 16 and not 14.
If the sec, b1g and big12 are all fighting over the same 4 schools, are those 4 schools only worth more to the big12? If those same schools go to the sec or the b1g, those conference values should go up by atleast as much as they would have by going to the big12, no?
Right now I'm sure the sec and the b1g aren't interested in anyone that thins down the mix. They have to move the needle atleast 100 million or it isn't worth it. No one wants to take less. Not going to add schools and have to give up 10-15 million per year. Not in this day and age of now having to pay for past players etc.
Private equity or not, those schools would be worth as much or more to the b1g or sec as they would be to the big12. Only difference is the b1g and the sec don't need the private equity leaches to pull it off.
Now let's put the school names back in. I assume for myself, that North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami would be the 4 from the ACC that could bring in the most value. You can argue another school possibly and that's fine. That's from the ACC that we're talkling about. So far Clemson and Fsu have been the most vocal about wanting out. Miami a little rumblings and so with nc. We still don't know the penalty (if any) or timeline that the ESPN contract just goes away.
Not sure how the sec schools would feel about some of the acc schools coming in. You know the old "only 1 per state" thing. Well that didn't work so well for ta&m did it? They now have uterus back with them. If it makes financial sense it's probably gonna happen even if a school is a little butt hurt. But does adding those "regional similar" schools help the sec?? Doesn't expand they're reach. Don't need to for recruiting now that they have uterus and sooners. They have the prime recruiting ground already. But does it add more tv sets to make sense. To me it would for the b1g.
But, the b1g has their eyes set on ND imo. Now to get ND, do they have to take Stanford which I believe would be their last "rival" to help solidify?? I know the b1g academia's would be thrilled with that. What about Cal then? Would Stanford say "we'll come but you gotta bring my buddy Cal"?
So in my scenario, the b1g, sec, and big12 are fighting over 6 schools with ND and Stanford to the b1g which would leave 4 acc schools to fight over so to speak. To me, of those 4 schools, the sec would get their pick of the litter. No way that fsu and miami are going to the same conference. The state of Georgia seems to be the hot bed of talent these days. Clemson isn't that much farther from Atlanta than Athens. Georgia is dominating the sec right now. Would SC and the rest of the sec like to see a little competition for Georgia??
Back to Fsu and miami. The sec doesn't need another florida school for recruiting. The b1g would. Of the 2, I would think fsu would be the b1g pick over miami. Which leaves NC. I would think they would be in the cross hairs of the sec. And like I said, I think the sec is going to have their pick because the holy grail for b1g is ND. So to me that leaves Miami for big12. And if that all happens, then it would maybe a collapse of the ACC and Virginia would want a home. Value??
I know you're going to come back and say, " but that private equity firm could buy them". Do you really think that any ACC school who has been fighting tooth and nail to get out of a stupid tv contract that was going to go through 203? , alledgedly, would want to go to another long term situation that they may not be comfortable with? Or would they want to go to a conference where they'll be a partner with stability and has a history of schools wanting in rather than looking for ways to leave. Yes, the big12 got cu back.
Well now I'm feeling like I've rambled enough. Bottom line, for now, the sec and b1g can basically do what they want and can be picky. I hope they stay strong enough and financially sound enough that they don't need private equity leach funds.
whew i'm tired
PS any thoughts on trying to get a&m back?? Rumors are they aren't happy about texas. Alberts is there only to get them to come to the b1g eventually for foot hold in texas.
