The very first stat one needs to look at is the number of recoveries not the number of deaths. As the number of positive tests increases, the mortality rate decreases. 1 person tests positive and dies, mortality rate 100%, zero people survived the virus. 200 people test positive 10 dead, mortality rate is 5%, but 190 people have survived the virus. 5000 people test positive 100 dead, mortality rate is 2% but 4900 people have survived the virus.
Isn't it weird how we don't hear about the mortality rate anymore on the news. All we hear about is then number of dead. Why is that? Is a 1.4% mortality rate not quite the same as the 10% mortality rate from February?
Yes having 994 people die, as of the time of this post, sucks. But so far there are 68,440 confirmed cases. The mortality rate is about 1.4% That doesn't include the number of people that had the virus, didn't even know it and no longer have the virus. How many people get the flu, don't go to the doctor, simply stay home, suck down fluids, take theraflu or whatever, puke, sweat, feel like shit, then get better, go back to work. They aren't counted in the number of people that had the flu. So when we calculate the mortality rate of the flu, those people aren't included. We only count the the cases where the patient tested positive for the flu and compare it to the number of people who died from the flu.
How many cases are there, where a patient who is in the hospital for kidney failure, and ends up getting the flu or pneumonia and dies. Does the hospital code that as a flu death? Pneumonia death or kidney failure death?
With this virus, so many of the deaths are people that were knocking on death's door anyway. Yes, it sucks that they last few days of their lives were cut short, but it isn't like the majority of the deaths are healthy 35 year olds that are stricken with this thing.
I am pretty sure I had it. I felt like crap for a few days, stayed home, self quarantined for 2 weeks and got better. Now I feel fine.
I think the virus is dangerous. But I tend to agree, at least in my part of the world in Houston area, that we are going to look back at this and think what the hell were we thinking, we killed an economy for something that is going to kill less than the flu, heart disease, cancer, drunk driving accidents, and walking in front of a bus.
As I stated earlier, the official statistics show that as of today at 4pm, roughly 2 months after the first case of coronovirus in the US was confirmed, there have been 68,440 confirmed cases and 994 deaths. That is going to increase over the next 10 days.....However
The H1N1 virus in 2009, IN THE US, 60.8 million people were diagnosed with the disease, 274,304 people were hospitalized and 12,469 people died.
In order to reach 12,469 deaths in 2020, the Coronovirus is going to have to kill 12 times the number of US people it has killed so far, and roughly 60,732,000 more people are going to have to be diagnosed with it to reach 2009 H1N1 levels.
Freak out, don't freak out, whatever, at least examine facts and not just spread fear based on what some doctor in NY or Seattle says when you don't live in NY or Seattle.