Covid is only beaten because of the lockdown...it spread slowed enough that the current lockdown can keep it managed. Sadly there aren't many examples of places who haven't taken measures so we can definitively prove that a lockdown is needed. It is also important to remember that covid will HAVE to infect a certain % of the population at some point. And it is apparently very bad for people with comorbidities or obese people. Which makes up a majority of America. I would equate Brooklyn with the rest of America looking at health data, irregardless of density. Rural folk are sick, careless, and they gather together...except their hospital might be 30 miles away and have 2-10 ventilators. You had to predict that both sides would be validated by a lockdown...the cases would be lower than predicted AND the people who didn't want a lockdown would point to the cases being lower. One side is right but the loud and mean normally win.
Covid 6.0
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Covid is only beaten because of the lockdown...it spread slowed enough that the current lockdown can keep it managed. Sadly there aren't many examples of places who haven't taken measures so we can definitively prove that a lockdown is needed. It is also important to remember that covid will HAVE to infect a certain % of the population at some point. And it is apparently very bad for people with comorbidities or obese people. Which makes up a majority of America. I would equate Brooklyn with the rest of America looking at health data, irregardless of density. Rural folk are sick, careless, and they gather together...except their hospital might be 30 miles away and have 2-10 ventilators. You had to predict that both sides would be validated by a lockdown...the cases would be lower than predicted AND the people who didn't want a lockdown would point to the cases being lower. One side is right but the loud and mean normally win.
It depends on their credibility. The myriad of people on the late night shows disagree, and find the hosts of those shows extremely helpful.
So, should a pol not go on those shows, laugh along.
It's obvious when they're in accord with one another.
I'm not really all that worried but I do think it will be interesting as I've said all along about how this thing gets turned back on because the big risk taker in Trump only controls very limited parts of what's shut down.
For folks who are less risky like say most governor's appear to be....what level of cooperation will there be in a couple weeks.
In some instances states have already shut down longer than Trump intends to. On May 1 most of the nations children will not be in school. Virginia will have another month of shut in. Etc.
Quite frankly Trump needs more than a few states in middle America to roll with him. He doesn't want to be rolling into a morning brief where Kudlow tells him where high value economic states are shut down but the Iowa State Fair is still on.
The majority of Americans do not have comorbidities and are not morbidly obese. When they start talking about obesity being a predisposing factor we're not talking about the guy with an extra 30 pounds of fat. We're talking about 300 pound women and 350 pound men who have decreased cardiac an pulmonary function because they're so damned fat. You make it sound like the whole damned country is over 300 lbs and has heart disease. Yeah there's more than there should be but it isn't the majority that fit into the category that are at increased risk for this virus.
Look to cali, 40 million and a hundred and some deaths?
Their lockdown may prove two things, the lockdown works, most agree, and, potentially theres a helluva lot of people already immune.
There are lots of people here and most of them drive. That helps too. The LA and SF mass transit is almost non-existant so that helps
I would say there is a big difference between going on a late night show and taking policy advice from an entertainer. It seemed like you might agree, but that must only be when the conspiracy theory host doesn't share the same political beliefs.
Well the Iowa State Fair probably shouldn't happen at this point BUT putting states like Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, and the Dakotas on strict lockdown would be ridiculous. At some point some common sense needs to factor in. What works in New York is not necessarily a good fit elsewhere. IF the federal government tried to put a strict lockdown on the Dakotas and Wyoming I think there would be a revolt.
48% have hypertension, which a key contributor to death in covid cases. There is very clear data that a BMI >30 leads to much worse outcomes in critical patients. Regardless of AGE and SEX, if a patient goes into the ICU and they have a BMI > 30 ...they only have a 35% chance to come out alive. If they have BMI less than 30, they have 70% chance to come out alive. This study is from the UK, which is a good analog for America...and the anecdotal data is pointing to the "healthy" young people who are dying as being BMI >30 in large percentages. I am confused whether a 30 year old with 30+ BMI has a comorbidity, as 30+ isn't morbidly obese as you say.
exactly. IMO mass transit was/is one of the biggest culprits in the spread of this damned thing and obviously air and cruise travel were large factors.
Really? So, when a host tosses up a softball, the audience roars and claps, that has no influence on a pol?
I would hope they are not likely to take advice from or be influenced by a host, simply because their audience laughed at some jokes, etc. But hey, it seems like you might be OK with the Rachel Maddow's of the world helping our nation's leaders make policy and health care decisions that effect us all, cool.
But, one is proved to be a lie, the other, a theory.
Unlike the edits on whats said, the out of context of whats said, the besmirching was a product created by one conspiracy theorist.
But the other needs not to conjure up this besmirching against china, their own admissions on their death totals ,they do themselves, amongst a myriad of other things.
So, a theory until proven? Yes.
A conspiracy theory at the level of years and years that was shot full of holes, not on the same scale.
Where do you get that 48% of the U.S. has hypertension. I don't believe that. Again, the VAST majority of people who are obese and who have some degree of hypertension are NOT severely affected enough for it to impact the course of disease with COVID-19. The degree of your underlying disease plays a HUGE part in your ability to survive a serious illness. Just being somewhat overweight wouldn't be a big deal if it hadn't caused other cardiac or pulmonary issues already. IF you're morbidly obese, have atherosclerosis and hypertension...well nice knowing ya.
BTW BMI is a HORRIBLE indicator of pulmonary health and moderate obesity. I'm 6' and weigh roughly 170 and at time I had my insurance check I was told I fell in the "obese" range. WTF. I was ripped at that time. I was doing 20 mile round trip day hikes with a 3000 ft elevation change. Yeah I was obese.
It's no different than those tweets spouting how those who live in spread out areas weren't following the stay at home guidelines, when, simply driving to the store takes more miles than a city dweller would ever do going to the store.
When people ignore these deceptions, they're either woefully ignorant, or aren't and will never be serious enough to offer true individual thought.
Oh, so, it's always only jokes? And that's what I was refering too? No, it wasn't, and every pol wants to know whats popular if they have no convictions or principles.
Man you need to let it go. Presidents talk to late night hosts, TV news people etc fairly often. It's not a big deal. Obama and Clinton both were known to do it. It's not a big deal.
Both are shock jock, conspiracy theorists of the highest degree and should not have influence on world leaders. It also shouldn’t matter if they help a candidate gain popularity. I don’t recall Bill Clinton taking policy advice from Arsenio Hall because he played his saxophone on his show once.
Well this is certainly depressing https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp...navirus-crisis.html?__twitter_impression=true
paraphrase it if you want. I'm not going to open a link that looks like that.
The first rule of policy analysis. It's never as bad as the naysayers say and it's never as good as the proponents say it will be.
Dingle paraphrase...the Asian countries held up as exemplar aren't doing as well as we thought. South Korea extension for social distancing etc.
Dingle paraphrase...the Asian countries held up as exemplar aren't doing as well as we thought. South Korea extension for social distancing etc.
I don’t know, some people pretty up in arms in this thread about Rachel Maddow’s craziness. Not sure they would have reacted real well to finding out Obama was taking policy advice from her.
Are these all happening?
Because mostly what is coming out about hospitals is it's all been put on hold and they're sending nurses home because of lack of work. With the exception of New York.
Saved everyone the problem.
I read the headline, there is no planned end of the virus.
I started off telling the same crew who's now gone full 180 on this, as they downplayed it as their leaders started chorusing out, at the time I told them at the least, this just more that will get sick, more that may die.
But again, berserkerism becomes religion, as they have to get it in before those immune start to emerge en masse
If we get down to brass tacks policy advice is nothing more than an opinion. Anyone who comes into contact with the president potentially is a source of opinion. Some of the most influential policy in our history has more than it's fair shair of first wives or first friends or whatever type of opinion weighed into it.
Trump's no different. Personally I think Hannity has gone too far...if he's going to be a presidential advisor I think he needs to leave the media behind. It's not like he couldn't return when that role was done.
Javanka is a policy advisor that the Trumpsters don't appreciate and have been a nearly four year source of angst. For all the angst between Trump and Romney in the end Trump ended up putting his name on Romneys stimulus so he's certainly taken policy advice there.
Just checking here.
How are those best case numbers and 10% death rates turning out?
Would any of you NOT take hydroxychlorequin w/ z pack if you were to fall ill to Covid-19?
I took anti malaria meds before and while I was in India. Not sure exactly what they were but I had to stop because they were so harsh on my stomach. Didn't end up with malaria but did come home with a nice intestinal infection.
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I sure would, if my doctor knew enough about me, the drug, and any complications.
If the countries held up as models for how we should proceed can’t figure it out, what does it mean for the U.S., which is saddled with broken institutions and has already bungled and delayed its response at nearly every stage? Here in New York, we are about to enter our third week of sheltering in place; in San Francisco and Seattle, the social-distancing orders have been in effect even longer. Yet there is no clarity to be found from the federal or state or local level for how long these measures will last. And there is no public or concrete plan for, and little visible discussion about, what it would mean to sunset them: how and at what point and in what ways we will try to exit this temporary-but-indefinite wartimelike national bunkering almost all 330 million of us now find ourselves in. What, exactly, is the endgame here?
Depends on just how sick I am. If it’s as AJ attempt to avoid intubation, absolutely.
I think I’d prefer to be given Remdesivir if given a choice as it actually has proven efficacy with other coronaviruses.
And they ignore what I've been saying, no surprise.
Don't get me wrong, I'm just relaying fact.
If they bothered to watch the white house pc, they'd put it together on their own.
But, two weeks, we will have tests on checking antibodies, many who never had symptoms,or those who attributes earlier symptoms on something else are likely immune, as well of course those whove gotten over it.
So things we have learned/relearned. Modeling complex systems is difficult to do, extrapolation of localized issues on a national or global scale can make things look really off at times. Models are out of date and imperfect. How do we build better models to inspire confidence?
Why/how did we let COVID 19 “succeed” where SARS and MERS and Ebola failed?
Why/how did we let COVID 19 “succeed” where SARS and MERS and Ebola failed?
Things I know,how the constitution is set up.
Local governments are the most powerful and effective government. Moving targets are hard to hit.
Knowing both, insist we do the best we can
To be fair because in large part because no one knows.
We are largely having to play this by ear because of that. They could generate a plan that says, on May 1 we just turn everything back on. Announce it to the world at the Task Force tomorrow.
What happens if Virginia or several states don't agree and stays shut down as planned. What happens if Florida happily obliges and becomes a thing again. What happens if the sports leagues see that and shut down anyway. What if we have a a few million antigen tests, but not enough to clear the elderly, let alone the work force? What if the 50 some mostly Chinese companies who are applying to distribute antigen tests have 30% failure rates as is being reported on Breitbart? What if we've assumed that being immune lasts forever and it doesn't? What if the 8 known strands of virus turn into 16 by the fall and the current vaccines in the pipe no longer matter?
If you know what the rules of the game are, its relatively easy to work out a playbook. From there its just political fighting about what is the best thing to do. We don't know what the rules of the game are by and large. So we have to work up concepts that change almost daily it seems like as more data is processed and the boundaries of the possible become clearer.
Edit: To wit, even the asian exemplars in that article are also doing the same thing. there's no finality to anything are doing because they just don't know.
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