Not sure who follows Chaz in Socal on twitter. He posted a question wondering who the best teams were in the B10 at winning games they are expected to win. So I thought on how the best way to determine that. Here is the best and quickest I could come up with.
Since it is nearly impossible to go back every year and determine or remember which teams were the decent fav I decided to simplify it. So I used the record against non conf, non P5 teams. Teams like Troy or central michigan, SDSU. The lower level D1 schools. I also used the record ranked vs non ranked teams. So if Neb was ranked 20th and we played NW who was unranked I used that result. Or if both teams were ranked I used that result if team was at least 10 spots lower. IE Neb ranked 4th NW ranked 14. If Neb was ranked 4th and Iowa ranked 6th I wouldn't use that result. I was looking for games that one team should be the obvious favorite. This was the only way I could think of to gauge which was the better team and more that likely a favorite to win. So that being said here is what I came up with. Also I just used data from when Neb joined the BIG10 through 2018 years. So 8 years of results.
This method worked ok for teams that were frequently ranked, but not really accurate for teams like Illinois, because the only results I was able to use were the non conf, non p5 teams IE the central mich types. Obviously those teams are much easier to beat vs playing an unranked Iowa. So I split into 2 groups those schools who had under 30 games used and teams who had over 30 games used.
1st group (over 30 games)
Ohio St 78-5= 93% win rate
Penn St 37-5= 88% win rate
Michigan 47-8 = 85% win rate
Wisconsin 54-9= 85% win rate
Mich St 49-11 = 81% win rate
Nebraska 35-10 = 77% win rate
2nd group (under 30 games)
MN 21-3 = 87% win rate
Iowa 23-4 = 85% win rate (technically Iowa plays Iowa st in their non conf that giving them 8 more games. Assuming Iowas was the fav in all those, would push it to 28- 7 or 80%)
Illinois 22-5 =81% win rate
Maryland 13-3 = 81% win rate
Rutgers 21-5 = 80% win rate
NW 20-8 = 71% win rate
Purdue 13-7 = 65% win rate
This by no means is scientific. I just threw together in about an hour and thought it was interesting.
Since it is nearly impossible to go back every year and determine or remember which teams were the decent fav I decided to simplify it. So I used the record against non conf, non P5 teams. Teams like Troy or central michigan, SDSU. The lower level D1 schools. I also used the record ranked vs non ranked teams. So if Neb was ranked 20th and we played NW who was unranked I used that result. Or if both teams were ranked I used that result if team was at least 10 spots lower. IE Neb ranked 4th NW ranked 14. If Neb was ranked 4th and Iowa ranked 6th I wouldn't use that result. I was looking for games that one team should be the obvious favorite. This was the only way I could think of to gauge which was the better team and more that likely a favorite to win. So that being said here is what I came up with. Also I just used data from when Neb joined the BIG10 through 2018 years. So 8 years of results.
This method worked ok for teams that were frequently ranked, but not really accurate for teams like Illinois, because the only results I was able to use were the non conf, non p5 teams IE the central mich types. Obviously those teams are much easier to beat vs playing an unranked Iowa. So I split into 2 groups those schools who had under 30 games used and teams who had over 30 games used.
1st group (over 30 games)
Ohio St 78-5= 93% win rate
Penn St 37-5= 88% win rate
Michigan 47-8 = 85% win rate
Wisconsin 54-9= 85% win rate
Mich St 49-11 = 81% win rate
Nebraska 35-10 = 77% win rate
2nd group (under 30 games)
MN 21-3 = 87% win rate
Iowa 23-4 = 85% win rate (technically Iowa plays Iowa st in their non conf that giving them 8 more games. Assuming Iowas was the fav in all those, would push it to 28- 7 or 80%)
Illinois 22-5 =81% win rate
Maryland 13-3 = 81% win rate
Rutgers 21-5 = 80% win rate
NW 20-8 = 71% win rate
Purdue 13-7 = 65% win rate
This by no means is scientific. I just threw together in about an hour and thought it was interesting.
