Does being a top 100 transfer mean anything near as much as being a top 100 recruit in terms of expected results?
My first initial reaction to that question is probably not....but...maybe with the volume of kids, it can be.
What is the success rate of the TOP 100 HS recruits/kids over the last ten years compared to what will be the success rate of the top 100 transfer kids over the next ten years? Will it be comparable? What will happen going forward?
The transfer portal/process (volume of kids/talent level) is so new that it's hard to tell at this point what kind of success these players will collectively have. Will they be Trey Palmer or will the kids transferring be a "bust". I generally think most kids transferring are doing so for good reason but will not have a huge impact on the new school. Not good enough, too many kids at their position etc but will the Top 100 transfer kids be a little different. My sense is better kids are now transferring making the kids at the top of the transfer list much more desirable. And have more success.
Will there be more guys like Russel Wilson from back in the day? Caleb Williams (really good)? Bo Nix (kinda good)? Trey Palmer (made a huge impact)? Spencer Rattler? Will NIL attract top talent away? etc.
With NIL and the transfer portal, I can't imagine being a coach these days. Rhule seems to get it/understand it/embrace it better than Frost. I think NIL and the transfer portal can shrink the gap between the elite schools and schools like NU. It still comes down to coaching and HS recruiting but if NU can get a few unexpected players to transfer and with a strong NIL offering it's possible to slightly close the gap. We will see.