Long read, so sorry about that.
1. The CU offense is unstoppable.
While the CU passing game was great against TCU, CU actually punted more times than TCU did (3-2). The main thing was the Buffs only had 1 fumble vs TCU's two red zone INTs. CU's offense was also helped by some TCU defensive penalties. Discipline will be key to not extending the Buffaloes' drives.
2. TCU didn't get to Shedeur Sanders much.
Sanders was sacked 4 times for -32 yards (8 yds/sack). He ran once for no gain. He uses his mobility to buy time to distribute the ball, not to run. Minnesota's Kaliakmanis was sacked 3 times and he's way more of a running threat and has a better OL. For Nebraska to win, 4+ sacks will go a long way.
3. Nebraska must worry about the CU run game.
Factoring out sacks, CU rushed the ball 30 times for 87 yards, or 2.9 YPR. That's not getting it done. CU's longest runs were 10, 8 and 8. Factor those 3 runs out and that drops to a measly 2 YPR. CU was very one dimensional in their production. Minnesota has a much better run game. Yes Nebraska needs to stop it, but it is much less of a threat than their passing game.
4. CU's secondary is too good to be thrown on by Nebraska.
Given TCU gashed CU for 262 yards on 37 carries, or 7.1 YPR, it doesn't behoove Nebraska to put the ball in the air much this game, especially after Sims' 3 INTs last week.
However, TCU's Morris threw for 279 yards and 2 scores. He also had 2 red zone picks, including the highlight reel one by CU's Travis Hunter. Sims can hit some guys as he showed Thursday. If Nebraska doesn't rely on the pass, but uses it effectively, it can keep the Buffaloes' defense honest enough to allow the run game to churn yards and clock against an outmatched CU DL.
Even though Jared Wiley is a better TE than anyone on the Husker roster, the Husker TEs can present match-up problems for CU, if used. TCU averaged 11.6 YPC. They had 10 different players with catches and 8 of them averaged 10+ YPC. While the Nebraska WR corps isn't a strength, there are guys comparable to what TCU trots out.
Also, Morris wasn't sacked once. The CU DL got very little pressure on him until the very last drive, when TCU inexplicably went away from the running game completely. That's good news for the OL. After Minnesota, the CU DL is going to be a much easier assignment.
5. Expect a lot of home run swings by the CU offense.
CU's longest play was a swing pass that Edwards broke for 75 yards. They also had 2 40+ yard catches by Hunter and Weaver and a 26-yard catch by Horn Jr. The bulk of their passing game is short to mid-range throws. CU will take 5-10 shots, but when they are clicking, the majority of passes will be in front of the safeties. The key is not letting those bust.
Knowing assignments and tackling will be huge, as White said last night. The Huskers did this well against Minnesota, but CU presents a much tougher challenge. If the secondary, the supposed strength of the Husker defense, does its job, Nebraska wins the game, barring another turnover disaster.
What the numbers say is that CU is very weak on both lines. The more Nebraska takes advantage, the better the odds for them to defeat their first ranked CU team in 21 years. Luckily football isn't 7-on-7. Fully using 11 rather than 7 on both sides of the ball is advantage Nebraska. The Huskers are more than capable of doing this and Rhule knows it.
Finally, if I were game planning, I would run a lot obviously, but I would also run right at Hunter. Make him a limited factor on the offensive side of the ball by the second half. He's such a game changer on both sides that to put a hat on him for 50-75 plays on defense is going to take a toll. I would also take the ball first to do just that, as opposed to deferring. It's one thing to run, but another to do so when you've been knocked around cleanly a bunch. Work the clock and Hunter, early and often.
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