There aren't many easy games in the Big Ten, but some schedules are more difficult than others
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Big Ten strength of schedule rankings 2023: Penn State has easiest road, Minnesota faces challenging slate
by Tom Fornelli, CBSSports.com
The 2023 season will be the final time the Big Ten plays as a 14-team conference with two divisions. That means this will be the last time teams can get "lucky" with their schedule.
Since the league went with the East-West split in 2014, there's always been a team in the West (the league's weaker division) that gets hammered by the cross-divisional draw, getting both Ohio State and Michigan while another team avoids both, and maybe sometimes Penn State too. This has been a big deal because, for many programs, that quirk can be the difference between an 8-4 season and a 5-7 year. For coaches, it could lead to raises and extensions or thanking your agent for getting that hefty buyout into your deal.
It's important to remember that while some schedules are considered easier than others, there are no truly easy Big Ten schedules. A nine-game conference slate assures that life will be difficult, and there are plenty of Power Five nonconference opponents on the Big Ten slate this season.
So which Big Ten team has it the hardest this year? Who's in a position to squeeze in a few extra wins this season? Let's break it down. We'll start with the most difficult and work our way downhill.
1. Minnesota
Well, this is quite a change of pace. I had Minnesota's schedule ranked as the easiest in the league last year, and the Gophers have typically found themselves in the bottom third in the years we've been ranking schedules here. But this year? This year there's not only a tough nonconference road game against North Carolina, but the Gophers get Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State from the East. The good news is only the game vs. Ohio State is on the road, but the bad news is you play both Michigan and Ohio State. Minnesota has won at least nine games in the last three full seasons. That will be a lot harder to do this year.
2. Purdue
If I'm first-year coach Ryan Walters, I'm talking with my new boss about our nonconference scheduling. Purdue will open the season with Fresno State, at Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Fresno State has been one of the most consistent Group of Five programs, and those are two ACC schools. Sure, they aren't Clemson and Florida State, but you probably don't want to play two Power Five nonconference games every season. In Big Ten play, like Minnesota, Purdue gets Ohio State and Michigan, but it draws Indiana instead of Michigan State.
3. Michigan State
The first two games against Central Michigan and Richmond shouldn't provide too much of a challenge, but Sparty will host Washington in hits third game a year after losing to the Huskies 39-28 in Seattle. The Spartans get Michigan and Penn State at home in divisional play but will be on the road for Ohio State. The West draw isn't impossible (at Iowa, at Minnesota, Nebraska), but it could've been easier.
4. Indiana
If you have to play Ohio State, you may as well do it in Week 1 and rip the bandage off right away. I mean, at least it's at home, but both Michigan and Penn State are on the road, so have fun with that. The nonconference games include a home date with Louisville and winnable games against Indiana State and Akron. The West draw of Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue isn't awful, but if I'm a Hoosier fan, I'd rather get Illinois and Purdue at home. Overall, the Hoosiers will play seven home games this year and could be favored in only three of them.
5. Illinois
Illinois was one of the league's biggest surprises last season and faces a tough draw in 2023. The Illini open the year with a Toledo squad that has been one of the MAC's best programs for years, and that road trip to Kansas probably looked like a better idea when it was scheduled. If Illinois wants to build on its success, a home game against Florida Atlantic shouldn't be a problem. Big Ten play opens with Penn State at home, but the Illini avoid Michigan and Ohio State. The road schedule isn't a monster, but the Illini could be underdogs in all five games.
6. Rutgers
Rutgers is the second Big Ten team to schedule a nonconference game against Virginia Tech this year, though, unlike Purdue, the Knights are playing the Hokies at home. Other nonconference games against Temple and Wagner should be wins for Greg Schiano's team. Also, with a season-opener at home against Northwestern, it's not crazy to think the Knights could start 3-2 or even 4-1. However, wins are harder to find once they get into the meat of Big Ten play. Rutgers gets Wisconsin and Iowa from the West, and both are on the road. Their home B1G games are Northwestern, Michigan State, Ohio State and Maryland. How many of them are you confident Rutgers wins?
7. Ohio State
As I mention every year, the top teams don't usually rate highly because they don't get to play themselves. However, adding a road game against Notre Dame to a schedule that also includes Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin boosts your overall SOS. Still, as difficult as things are, Ohio State would be favored in 11 of its 12 games. Also, with games against Indiana, Youngstown State and Western Kentucky to open the year, the Buckeyes should have any possible wrinkles ironed out before the intensity cranks up.
8. Nebraska
It's not often you see a Power Five program open the season with consecutive road games, but that's the position Nebraska has put itself in for Matt Rhule's first season. The Huskers open with Minnesota on the road before heading to Boulder to face Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes. The home slate begins with Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech before Michigan comes to town. The Wolverines are the only one of the East's Big Three Nebraska has to play, as it also drew Michigan State and Maryland. Also, in Big Ten play, a road schedule of Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State and Wisconsin is favorable.
9. Michigan
The Wolverines played one of the easiest nonconference schedules in the country last season, and it worked out well, so why change things up? While it's a little harder this year, I wouldn't anticipate home games against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green as major obstacles. Outside of the season finale against Ohio State, the Wolverines could be favored by at least three scores in every home game. They also get a favorable West draw with Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue, though the Nebraska and Minnesota games are on the road in consecutive weeks.
10. Northwestern
The nonconference schedule includes two gimme wins against UTEP and Howard, but the road trip to face a Duke team that beat the Wildcats last season in Evanston won't be easy. The season-opener on the road against Rutgers could be its most winnable Big Ten game of the year. The Cats also get Penn State and Maryland from the East. Minnesota, Iowa and Purdue come to Evanston in division play, while the Cats are on the road for Nebraska, Wisconsin and Illinois.
11. Wisconsin
All things considered, the first schedule the Badgers will play under Luke Fickell will provide plenty of opportunities. The nonconference schedule isn't soft, but it wouldn't be a shock to see Wisconsin go 3-0 against Buffalo, at Washington State and Georgia Southern. Also, while the Badgers get Ohio State from the East, they get Rutgers and Indiana, which is the best you could hope for in that situation. Finally, a road schedule of Wazzu, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota won't be easy, but I can see the Badgers winning three of those games.
12. Iowa
No disrespect to Penn State, but when you can avoid Michigan and Ohio State in your cross-divisional draw, you'll take it every time. Iowa gets Penn State on the road to start Big Ten play, as well as Michigan State and Rutgers from the East. The nonconference schedule includes home dates with Utah State and Western Michigan and a rivalry game against Iowa State on the road. The Hawkeyes should be favored in every home game and possibly by double-digits in five of the seven games. However, the road slate is trickier with the Penn State game and trips to Wisconsin and Nebraska.
13. Maryland
Listen, you may want to critique Maryland's nonconference schedule, but there's no judgment on my end. You should lighten your nonconference load when you have to play Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State every season. Plus, while Towson and Charlotte are gimmes, the Virginia game would've looked a lot tougher at this time last year. Elsewhere, you have to feel good about getting Illinois, Northwestern and Nebraska from the West.
14. Penn State
I'm expecting a big season for the Nittany Lions, and this schedule is part of the thought process. The opener against West Virginia shouldn't be a problem, and the other two nonconference opponents are Delaware and UMass. That's basically playing two FCS schools. The conference slate isn't easy, and in an odd quirk, Penn State's first three B1G games are against West opponents (Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern). I'd expect the Nittany Lions to be favored in 10 of their 12 games at a minimum.
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