just having some fun with this quote
MLB and golf are my two best sports. but I gamble on everything. had a pretty good college football season and an awful ncaa tournament.
NBA playoffs, hockey playoffs quickly approaching. certainly some lucrative futures to be had in the latter, as always.
This will likely be a TLDR type post for the majority of the members. Feel free to enjoy a different thread.
kong, we all do things differently, and that's a good thing.
In my world, its all about how I construct my wagers. If I were playing multiple sports as you do, I know I would designate %'s based on what I was the best at, versus what my least profitable sport(s) was.
Let's say you play college and pro football, college and pro football, hockey, golf and futures. My result spreadsheet would have told me where I need to be in terms of wagering on each type athletic event.
If I made 75% of my money wagering on college football, NBA playoffs and hockey playoffs, those three would each get @ 25% of whatever my bankroll was. Then the remaining 3-4 sports would get the remaining 25%, maybe 10%, 10%, 5%.
I've always had my results tell me where my money should be allocated. The difference is the sports you and others wager on have definite seasons of play, so naturally you will move from sport to sport even though 1-2-3 may all be going at the same time. In horseracing, its a year around thing, so I don't have to bounce from sport to sport to apply my skills.
Those of you who don't care about wagering on horses are free to leave now, as I'm gonna give kong a nickel view of how, over the LONG haul to be really successful in wagering. Not that I know it all, but its proven itself over 50 years.
I have what I consider to be a "Dream Team". That means, I play trainers that run from coast to coast year around.
Meets come and go, but the human element remains the same. I've identified the very best of the best in multiple categories.
There are multiple tracks that have both a spring meet and a fall meet. Some trainers do jack shit, by design, in the spring meet, but kill it in the fall. Others vice versa. I never force a trainer to be something that he's not. When he is always cold in the spring, I will give his horses cursory looks, but no cash. Will he occassionally fool me? Of course.
With 300 trainers, there are always going to be ample guys who are playing for real, regardless of the time of year. It took me 3 years, and a TON of hours to develop my methodology. I wanted to have LIVE trainers to bet year around so I never had dry spells. In other words, I never had to wait a month or two for a track to open because I had 2-3-4 other tracks I was playing.
Let me explain a simple reason why most horseplayers can't win consistently. They "think" they pay attention to details.....
If you look at the bottom of a horse's Past Performance, you see this trainer has won 11% of his 435 sprint races, okay, so that means he won 48 races. I look at ALL his sprint races, from 4F, 4 1/2F, 5F, 5 1/2F, 6F, 6 1/2F, 7F. 7 different distances in sprint races, and including dirt, turf and artificial surfaces.
On the dirt, this trainer might be 0-8 in 4F races, 1-9 in 4 1/2F, etc etc. I find that ONE distance that this trainers wins his races in. Sometimes a trainer runs 6 1/2 F races and wins 17 of 22 times, or 77%. What sprint race among these distances do you think I concentrate on? Then, of those 22 races and 17 wins, how many did he use the same jockey, or for the same owner, or moving from 6F to 6 1/2 F? It tells the story of how this guy pays his bills, and likely gambles.
In other words, just like with a 3rd base coach, these trainers have "indicators." If 8 of those 17 races were won when the previous races were 7F, then 6F then the 6 1/2F race for the win, that's telling me this horse will run his eyeballs out. And they don't run their eyeballs out at 2/1, its more 20/1, 30/1, 40/1 and up.
In those other distances when that trainer is 0-8 or 1-9 I will let him beat me on occassion, because percentage wise, I'm generally gonna toss that horse, or play against him. I hope that makes sense to you. If he beats me 1 out of 17 times, so be it.
I don't rely on good luck, I just hope to avoid bad luck. Over the years, I've played a horse that I KNEW was gonna fire, and some longshot, out of the blue, would jump up and beat me. Did I get pissed? No. I told myself, okay what did that outsider do to get that piece of shit looking horse to run so great today? And presto, after diligent research, I had another really dangerous trainer added to my stable. If he had this horse good enough today, to beat a proven trainer who I knew was going for the win, has this new guy done this before? Almost always, the answer is yes.
Personally, I don't care how big or how successful any trainer is, they all have chinks in their armor at different distances, surfaces, jockeys and owners. That's when I play against them with confidence.
If you lasted this long, kudos.