I do NOT understand the star rating system

[DudznSudz]

Dedrick Mills was rated a 5.6 3 star recruit on this website not yesterday, and is now "unrated," while he started out as "unrated" at 247 Sports and within a couple of hours got a high 3 star (.8700) rating. What the hell?

How arbitrary is this stuff? I know its not entirely useless; a team like Ohio State has nothing but 4 and 5 star talent and they whoop ass, but in our case, I see Frost and company smartly recruiting solid, often high 3-star level talent. My guess is that is easier to recruit and because they are "almost" at that level, with a couple of years of training you can turn them into badasses.

Thoughts?

 

[ThereIsNoPlace]

 

[inWV]

Dedrick Mills was rated a 5.6 3 star recruit on this website not yesterday, and is now "unrated," while he started out as "unrated" at 247 Sports and within a couple of hours got a high 3 star (.8700) rating. What the hell?

How arbitrary is this stuff? I know its not entirely useless; a team like Ohio State has nothing but 4 and 5 star talent and they whoop ass, but in our case, I see Frost and company smartly recruiting solid, often high 3-star level talent. My guess is that is easier to recruit and because they are "almost" at that level, with a couple of years of training you can turn them into badasses.

Thoughts?

Think the 5.6/3* was from HS and Rivals will re-rank him as a JUCO prospect when they get around to it.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Dedrick Mills was rated a 5.6 3 star recruit on this website not yesterday, and is now "unrated," while he started out as "unrated" at 247 Sports and within a couple of hours got a high 3 star (.8700) rating. What the hell?

How arbitrary is this stuff? I know its not entirely useless; a team like Ohio State has nothing but 4 and 5 star talent and they whoop ass, but in our case, I see Frost and company smartly recruiting solid, often high 3-star level talent. My guess is that is easier to recruit and because they are "almost" at that level, with a couple of years of training you can turn them into badasses.

Thoughts?

You saw the high school rating 5.6 3 star. It is still on the website. He is unrated as a JUCO, I could see that changing at some point this fall.

 

[inWV]

You saw the high school rating 5.6 3 star. It is still on the website. He is unrated as a JUCO, I could see that changing at some point this fall.

The fact the he signed with NU will impact the ranking he receives.

 

[chicolby]

You saw the high school rating 5.6 3 star. It is still on the website. He is unrated as a JUCO, I could see that changing at some point this fall.

Especially if he throws up more 267 rushing yards and 3 TD type games.

 

[HuskerLLM]

Rivals is typically behind in Juco rating. IMO that was probably the one niche thing that Scout was good at so now that they are part of 247 it makes sense they would be ahead of the game.

 

[TruHusker]

The fact the he signed with NU will impact the ranking he receives.

Based on what? That is not necessarily true for all services. I would not even consider it a factor. I linked some good articles on the subject, apparently they didn't get read.

The kid has not played for a year due to injury. The last rating was his HS rating. Give them time to reevaluate him now.

 

[slick1979uk]

Dedrick Mills was rated a 5.6 3 star recruit on this website not yesterday, and is now "unrated," while he started out as "unrated" at 247 Sports and within a couple of hours got a high 3 star (.8700) rating. What the hell?

How arbitrary is this stuff? I know its not entirely useless; a team like Ohio State has nothing but 4 and 5 star talent and they whoop ass, but in our case, I see Frost and company smartly recruiting solid, often high 3-star level talent. My guess is that is easier to recruit and because they are "almost" at that level, with a couple of years of training you can turn them into badasses.

Thoughts?

LOL!!!!!!!

 

[jlb321]

Rumor is that film of his last game has prompted emergency meetings of rivals staff to discuss if the first ever 6-Star rating should be awarded ... this is what’s causing the delay ... stay tuned

 

[chicolby]

The best solution to this is to simply trust that we hired the right head coach and coaching staff and trust them to do their job. If they want to get a 3 star guy with upside, go for it. If a recruiting site doesn't think they are good, so be it.

I wish this was how we also handled people elected to office. We elect them based on their character, intelligence and alignment to our beliefs. Let them make decisions without overanalyzing every single issue. Sorry for the minor political rant to a recruiting question.

 

[Wing-Back]

Think the 5.6/3* was from HS and Rivals will re-rank him as a JUCO prospect when they get around to it.

View embedded media

View embedded media

they need to get him a bigger helmet at GCCC.

 

[HuskerHusaria]

In the past, its always seemed that prospects that choose NU get downgraded because of it.

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

In the past, its always seemed that prospects that choose NU get downgraded because of it.

Look film is not objective...I wish each stadium had calibrated sensors so we knew exactly how fast guys were, their force of impact, their acceleration, their decision making, but that is impossible. Watching a guy on mississippi grass vs. texas field turf is a completely different experience. And then throw in endless levels of competition and it becomes impossible to use the "eyeball test" or even stats for that matter. The best that recruiting services can do is wait for guys to get attention from "smart" recruiters, aka big time winning programs. If a guy is getting attention as a junior from Alabama, they have measurable for the position they are recruited, and then they have 50-80 other offers then they are going to be a 4 star. Word of mouth, film, and camps gets them to 5 stars. If a kid chooses NU over Alabama, the question is why? Most of the time it involves alabama wanting the kid to play a position more suited for them, as is with Ameer Abdullah. So the kid receives a downgrade because his size dictates he isn't a top 250 talent at that position. The biggest star gap occurs because of physical development...size and strength...and this dictates a players readiness. Alabama is going to get the biggest and strongest freshman, they immediately provide depth and competition for the team. The last 18 husker teams have needed more development, which means they often sit for 2 years before they provide competition, and we have certainly seen a pattern of lack of competition in practices, where the same senior is allowed to make the same mistakes because our incoming classes don't have the immediate talent to replace them.

Frost is using the Oregon model to counter this. Disregard size and measurables and focus on speed, even on the dline and oline. Our online will be fast and mobile, and we will be physical by running a crap ton of plays at fast pace to wear out the other team. Our dline will be opportunistic, quick, and go for explosive plays...sacks, fumbles, Ints...we'll give up points but score a lot of points and keep pressure on the other team, which is most cases is enough to win. Against top level competition it will still be tough...

 

[TruHusker]

The problem with the above is it doesn't match up with what the services say really happens. A lot of the evaluation comes from camps, not necessarily games alone and these are almost always on turf, not grass as you say. In camps they are matched up best against best so they get a good idea of individual technique, strength and overall skills. High school coaches know how to evaluation film, sit with some for a weekend, you will be amazed - I can't even imagine what a pro or college coach sees. It's not like they watch one film against the weak sisters convent, they get a good idea from games combined with camps. A large number of these kids go to the different schools' camps and some work out for the coaches individually. Its not like they are relying on some sinister film guru who combs the internet for video and sets up a business with it.

It is fallacy that the number of "offers" makes a difference. Only one person that does any ratings gives it any mind and that is minimal. The explanation is it is not reliable. The recruit says they are being offered or recruited by Bama, Clemson, or Nebraska let's say. That is all self reported so there is always question if it is accurate or not. Many times it is not accurate but the school doesn't go around saying - na, we really didn't offer the kid even though he says we did. They don't care, it gets their name out there whether there really is an offer or not.

Size is also not a factor. How big is Miles Jones? 5'9" and 166 lbs dripping with sweat and his pads on. Oh and he was a 4*. Its the athleticism. That should not change in an athlete.

I am not sure what the "Oregon Model" is if you are saying just the speed part of it. How then do you explain the D backs that Frost and Chin want to be tall and have wing span? We are recruiting some bigger D backs - 6'2" and 6'3" in this last class alone. Its not like they are looking for mini speed burners all over the field.

Lets be honest, every coach wants speed and lots of it. They want RB's who can run, LB's who can run, QB's who can run, WR's who can run, even DL and OL who can run. That is even more of a premium in today's spread game.

 

[ZJSARENOTFREE]

A funny example is Jared Crick was not rated back when he was going through the process. He went down to the Under Armor game and completely dominated at the camp, and made a lot of the big time prospects look silly. He got a bump to a 3 star, but one of the evaluators said that would be the max because he was from small town Nebraska and that is all the higher they would move him up. The rating system is what it is, and for the most part it gets a lot right when ranking the upper group, but there are always going to be kids who don't pan out. Hopefully our evaluations are correct and we get great talent.

 

[DudznSudz]

A funny example is Jared Crick was not rated back when he was going through the process. He went down to the Under Armor game and completely dominated at the camp, and made a lot of the big time prospects look silly. He got a bump to a 3 star, but one of the evaluators said that would be the max because he was from small town Nebraska and that is all the higher they would move him up. The rating system is what it is, and for the most part it gets a lot right when ranking the upper group, but there are always going to be kids who don't pan out. Hopefully our evaluations are correct and we get great talent.

Yeah, basically I understand it as a "generic guide" to how talented or "good" a recruit is, but that it isn't meant to be taken 100% seriously and that there are plenty of examples of people over or under performing based on the rating they receive. I was just wierded out by two things:

1.) He had a rating and then he didn't (this was explained).
2.) He didn't have a rating on 247 but now has a high 3-star rating, but that rating is "odd," just like Desmond Bland's rating is. 247 uses a decimal system next to the stars, and normally, it goes to the thousandths place. So like, .8857 is a great rating, close to 4 star. Anyway, Mills has a rating of .8700 and Fair .8900. That, to me, means "estimated" instead of "actually evaluated," because that is "too round" a number to actually be assigned.

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

The problem with the above is it doesn't match up with what the services say really happens. A lot of the evaluation comes from camps, not necessarily games alone and these are almost always on turf, not grass as you say. In camps they are matched up best against best so they get a good idea of individual technique, strength and overall skills. High school coaches know how to evaluation film, sit with some for a weekend, you will be amazed - I can't even imagine what a pro or college coach sees. It's not like they watch one film against the weak sisters convent, they get a good idea from games combined with camps. A large number of these kids go to the different schools' camps and some work out for the coaches individually. Its not like they are relying on some sinister film guru who combs the internet for video and sets up a business with it.

It is fallacy that the number of "offers" makes a difference. Only one person that does any ratings gives it any mind and that is minimal. The explanation is it is not reliable. The recruit says they are being offered or recruited by Bama, Clemson, or Nebraska let's say. That is all self reported so there is always question if it is accurate or not. Many times it is not accurate but the school doesn't go around saying - na, we really didn't offer the kid even though he says we did. They don't care, it gets their name out there whether there really is an offer or not.

Size is also not a factor. How big is Miles Jones? 5'9" and 166 lbs dripping with sweat and his pads on. Oh and he was a 4*. Its the athleticism. That should not change in an athlete.

I am not sure what the "Oregon Model" is if you are saying just the speed part of it. How then do you explain the D backs that Frost and Chin want to be tall and have wing span? We are recruiting some bigger D backs - 6'2" and 6'3" in this last class alone. Its not like they are looking for mini speed burners all over the field.

Lets be honest, every coach wants speed and lots of it. They want RB's who can run, LB's who can run, QB's who can run, WR's who can run, even DL and OL who can run. That is even more of a premium in today's spread game.

Oregon never got the top 10 at each position like the other big programs do...they have to recruit for either undeveloped players or fringe guys...skinny safeties to play corner...skinny corners to redshirt and bulk up..every team wants big corners, physical corners...but I was speaking more about their lines, which of course are all that matter in football...brook berringer can win a national title with a top line...cortney grixby can survive as a college corner with a good line. We all know too much emphasis is put on everyone else...a Suh can make your defense #1, and make the peso look like a real thing. Hopefully Scott puts his focus where it matters.

 

[huskerfan66]

Look film is not objective...I wish each stadium had calibrated sensors so we knew exactly how fast guys were, their force of impact, their acceleration, their decision making, but that is impossible. Watching a guy on mississippi grass vs. texas field turf is a completely different experience. And then throw in endless levels of competition and it becomes impossible to use the "eyeball test" or even stats for that matter. The best that recruiting services can do is wait for guys to get attention from "smart" recruiters, aka big time winning programs. If a guy is getting attention as a junior from Alabama, they have measurable for the position they are recruited, and then they have 50-80 other offers then they are going to be a 4 star. Word of mouth, film, and camps gets them to 5 stars. If a kid chooses NU over Alabama, the question is why? Most of the time it involves alabama wanting the kid to play a position more suited for them, as is with Ameer Abdullah. So the kid receives a downgrade because his size dictates he isn't a top 250 talent at that position. The biggest star gap occurs because of physical development...size and strength...and this dictates a players readiness. Alabama is going to get the biggest and strongest freshman, they immediately provide depth and competition for the team. The last 18 husker teams have needed more development, which means they often sit for 2 years before they provide competition, and we have certainly seen a pattern of lack of competition in practices, where the same senior is allowed to make the same mistakes because our incoming classes don't have the immediate talent to replace them.

Frost is using the Oregon model to counter this. Disregard size and measurables and focus on speed, even on the dline and oline. Our online will be fast and mobile, and we will be physical by running a crap ton of plays at fast pace to wear out the other team. Our dline will be opportunistic, quick, and go for explosive plays...sacks, fumbles, Ints...we'll give up points but score a lot of points and keep pressure on the other team, which is most cases is enough to win. Against top level competition it will still be tough...

Agree with several points but not sure I would necessarily call it the Oregon model.

 

[red scowl]

Oregon never got the top 10 at each position like the other big programs do...they have to recruit for either undeveloped players or fringe guys...skinny safeties to play corner...skinny corners to redshirt and bulk up..every team wants big corners, physical corners...but I was speaking more about their lines, which of course are all that matter in football...brook berringer can win a national title with a top line...cortney grixby can survive as a college corner with a good line. We all know too much emphasis is put on everyone else...a Suh can make your defense #1, and make the peso look like a real thing. Hopefully Scott puts his focus where it matters.

Exactly, we can't go by the "Oregon model" for defensive lineman. That will win us nothing but losses to the east. I hope we have good line coaches.

I think the offense will score alot of points. I'm curious about the defense.

To get back on topic, of course the rankings are subjective. It's an evaluation by a man or men. They are going to give a kid that plays in Miami a higher rating than a kid that plays 8 man football ; everything being equal of course. A higher rating for a kid that does well at camps. An unrated kid will become a four star after receiving multiple offers from SEC schools.

I think the scouting is good, but there are too many variables to be very accurate with kids still growing.

 

[SL1123]

Oregon never got the top 10 at each position like the other big programs do...they have to recruit for either undeveloped players or fringe guys...skinny safeties to play corner...skinny corners to redshirt and bulk up..every team wants big corners, physical corners...but I was speaking more about their lines, which of course are all that matter in football...brook berringer can win a national title with a top line...cortney grixby can survive as a college corner with a good line. We all know too much emphasis is put on everyone else...a Suh can make your defense #1, and make the peso look like a real thing. Hopefully Scott puts his focus where it matters.

I'm not actually arguing your point, but I'd like to point out that in Chip Kelly's 3 full recruiting classes (2010, 2011, 2012) they finished #13, #9, and #16 in the final recruiting rankings. They signed 3 5-stars and 29 4-stars in that span.

It's not Alabama, Ohio State, or USC recruiting, but it goes to show that teams like Oregon and Nebraska still need top-notch talent to compete. It's not all fringe players and system guys.