Herd Immunity Math
- Thread starter freenoz
- Start date
- Status
Actually, Faucci (sp) is already predicting 20% of the population has herd immunity....So wouldn’t that be 65,000,600 already? Most undiagnosed? Go back to your hole flamer....
What Fauci said was that because of the cross protection immunity conferred by previous infections with Corona virus colds, it appears that it may only take a 20% infection rate to reach some sort of population immunity. I refuse to say "herd" when referring to humans. There was research at Oxford University in the U.K. that supports that theory and more research in California that Fauci has cited that also supports that theory. We're getting close to that level and the last bastions to reach it will be rural states like Nebraska, the Dakotas, Iowa etc. College and high school students are taking the bullets for us right now.....and maybe a few teachers.
What people either don't know or refuse to admit is that a "population immunity" level in an open system as occurs in humans, doesn't mean you won't still have cases. All it would mean is that we would drop below epidemic levels and assume some sort of endemic level of new infections. We would still have new cases and new deaths from COVID unless we either vaccinated everybody or somehow closed the system to remove new infections.
We won't get rid of this thing unless everybody consents to vaccine or it by some miracle dies out on it's own. My prediction since it was obvious this wasn't dying off like the original SARS virus has been that this will be endemic and we'll be getting annual booster vaccinations just like we do for the flu. People who refuse to get vaccinated or who don't have access to vaccine in developing areas (Central and South America for instance) are going to ensure this thing sticks around. It would be nice if we could snuff it out like Small Pox. That would be great until China releases it's next SARS 3.0.
It appears that 50% of the population has cross immunity from other coronaviruses, so when we add the 20% infection rates we have seen in places like New York and Florida, we get up to that 65-70% number that gets us to the magical herd immunity. Its not surprising that things begin to taper off and flatten when that % is reached.
People can speculate all they want about having or not having herd immunity. IMO we need an effective safe vaccine period regardless of what you think or don't think about herd immunity. Hopefully vaccines are now not too far off and so far they've provided immune responses in the trials to date.
BUT IF some people are anti-vaxxers and won't get vaccinated that's their choice and their risk. I won't have sympathy for the anti-vaxxers if they get sick but I respect their right to choose.
BUT IF some people are anti-vaxxers and won't get vaccinated that's their choice and their risk. I won't have sympathy for the anti-vaxxers if they get sick but I respect their right to choose.
This soccermom math from an idiot who couldn't balance her check book, when we had them. This is the kind of disingenuous, uninformed stupidity that shuts down schools when you're more likely to die in a vehicle crash on the way to school than from a virus.
Anyone who believes this garbage is either a moron or a lib. But I repeat myself.
I ran schools where parents could opt out, there are people on both sides of the vaccination issue. I get that.
From what I have read, and it is certainly not technical, the chances of a vaccine that is both safe and affective is slim. What is our overall record with viral vaccines?
You've been reading the wrong things. Developing a vaccine which is BOTH safe and effective is EXTREMELY likely. For various reasons there are lots of people voicing skepticism BUT IMO their motives are not to protect public health. I think there are people on both sides of the aisle floating crap that the vaccines won't work or will be dangerous to promote their own political argument.
This is not new science. The technology we're using has been used successfully. Corona viruses actually are EASIER to make an effective vaccine for than the seasonal flu. So far we don't even know IF the ONE serious illness seen after vaccination was due to the vaccine after tens of thousands of does given. Any of the new vaccines will be at least as safe as influenza vaccine and IMO will be more effective.
Antibodies alone are NOT the sole determinant of immunity to any virus. It's interesting how some "scientists" seem to not understand the concept of cell mediated immunity.
That's with seasonal flu which has a WIDE variance in strains. They're guessing when they decide how to make a seasonal flu vaccine. We're not guessing with this Corona virus vaccine. It's a very different scenario. In years going forward IF this virus mutates enough of IF a totally different Corona virus pops up and becomes endemic, then we may be in the same boat as with the flu but for right now that is not the case.
What I should have added is a time line for rolling the vaccine out. If it's a year from now, won't we have given time for the virus to pretty.muxj run its course?
Assume it is into the future 8-12 months, then you are still likely have a skeptical population who may or may not rush to get the vaccine. I may be one of those who waits to see if others start growing horns first.
This is all to say, I pray the vaccine is the answered but there is always that doubt.
A year from now the vaccine will be unnecessary for the most part. Between herd immunity and the likelihood of the virus mutating down to a much less virulent strain, it won't be necessary.
When it comes to vaccine, choose your risk. Either get no vaccine and risk Covid-19 or take the vaccine and reduce your risk of Covid-19. Do WHATEVER you please but it is very destructive to try to promote FEAR and encourage others from getting the vaccine. If you won't get the vaccine, fine, but keep quiet and let others make their own choice.
There better not be anyone opting out of this vaccine.
I'm hard pressed to think about any action someone could take that "protects others" more than being vaccinated.
And there has been a whole pile of shaming during this thing for people not taking precautions in order to "protect others".
I'm hard pressed to think about any action someone could take that "protects others" more than being vaccinated.
And there has been a whole pile of shaming during this thing for people not taking precautions in order to "protect others".
Have a seat and grab a box of tissues. I have some news for you...
This idea is really incredible. We've come full circle from scaring people into thinking if they go outside without a mask they'll die to claiming people are promoting fear by advocating against a vaccine. Seems the only certainty is fear and misinformation.
If you're under 60 and healthy idk why you'd get a vaccine for a virus that 99.99% of people survive. If you're fat and sick and have other cormorbidities it's probably something to look into.
You obviously get the vaccine if you want to eradicate the virus and protect more vulnerable people (like parents, grand parents, etc.) by NOT becoming a spreader. But if you're young and only care about yourself then you probably don't need the vaccine. Pretty much that simple.
Unfortunately, young and selfish won't be the only group to refuse vaccination. You can bank on the tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorists, and flag waving "it's a free country" folks as well.
You forgot the libtard who think a vaccine this fast is a bad thing so these idiots can keep the country on lockdown while people like you hide in there basement sucking their thumb. Don't forget those people snowflake.
I haven't personally given the vaccine much thought as it is a ways off from being available. Lately though, several people I know in health care have stated they would not take the vaccine, especially early. Telling to me.
I would expect the gov to pass some laws restricting where one can go or not go without the vaccine. That will be how they "motivate" people to take it.
I would expect the gov to pass some laws restricting where one can go or not go without the vaccine. That will be how they "motivate" people to take it.
I'm just gonna leave this here for you. I freaking loved it, I think you will too.
Trump’s Taxes Show Chronic Losses and Years of Income Tax Avoidance (Published 2020)
The Times obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due.
Let's put it this way, Russia also has a vaccine, but I don't see anyone in a big hurry to buy up their stockpile. Trump is pushing hard on this, which is fine, but when it comes to taking the vaccine I'll trust the healthcare professionals, not Donald.
Yawn. More fake news a month before election. I guess when your candidate is a senile puppet who can't even read a teleprompter you have to resort to lies and hatchet jobs. Talk about desperation for the Dems. Good luck with that scooter. LolI'm just gonna leave this here for you. I freaking loved it, I think you will too.
Trump’s Taxes Show Chronic Losses and Years of Income Tax Avoidance (Published 2020)
The Times obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due.www.nytimes.com
Last edited:
Wow, that's the best you got? Your fascist dictator just got totally exposed, it's world news, and all you've got is another tired teleprompter quip? You are such a triggered little piggie. Should we come up with a safe word for you, so that your sensitive little ears don't get hurt by the truth?
The reality you have set up is quite a thing to behold. No news is legitimate. Always fake. There literally is no source that is telling the truth. The research and sourcing on this is as solid as it gets. Deep down you know he is a crook and cheat. Just admit none of it matters because he pisses off the same people you insult here so that makes all the grift OK
So I am supposed the take the New York Times word for this hahahahaha sorry.. show me the taxes oh I guess another anonymous source for the Times. They have not shown to be a reliable news source
We all know how much you hate it that we live in a free country.
As solid as it gets. Just like the rolling stone article about the girl who got gangbanged at a frat party or Trump not going to a cemetery.
A crook and a cheat who donates all but $1 of his presidential salary...
Obviously the NYT timed it perfectly to distract from policy discussion issues in the debate. Surprise, surprise.
Yet they provided no proof or named sources yet AGAIN. Reminds one of the "boy who cried wolf" because after so many attempts to make mischief, their credibility is completely shot by now.
The really big logic question however is if Trump (or anyone else for that matter) had done something illegal on their tax returns over the years why wouldn't the IRS have sued him or put him in jail? He has to be one of the most audited people in the country. The IRS is not known for being stupid or showing any mercy - for anyone. The argument that Trump did something illegal in his tax returns falls completely flat if you think about it for a second.
And people always ignore the fact that EVERY major office holder has to submit a financial disclosure statement to prove they have no financial conflicts of interest. Yes, even Trump.
Talk about the lack of fairness. The Press is THE prime example of that.
Last edited:
Unfortunately for the American people, the news agencies are now just mouth breathing agenda pushers. There is no agency that just puts out the facts the whole, WHOLE, situation or events and presents it without some sly quip or choice of words. None.
So now they have the reputation they deserve.
You shouldn't defend them. They are purposely $#!++!%& the bed. Sad times...
I agree it is very destructive to promote fear. I wish the media would stop doing that.
This is silliness. Without knowing what his depreciation schedule looks like or how much of his earnings were left in his C- corporations, taking the bottom line of his tax return and acting like that is an accurate representation is meaningless.I'm just gonna leave this here for you. I freaking loved it, I think you will too.
Trump’s Taxes Show Chronic Losses and Years of Income Tax Avoidance (Published 2020)
The Times obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due.
Donald, unlike other presidents, has refused to show his taxes. I wonder why?
- Status
