I agree with most of this but I actually think the easy, soft schedule in the first half of the season really sets up well for us. We should be favored in every game except Cinci, don't know what they are returning. That should give us 6 wins, average finish would be one more win out of the 5 remaining, I think we can do that. A pretty good improvement gives us wins over MN and IA! That's 8 and we really need that for recruiting if nothing else.
I was looking at the Fansided analysis of our schedule. Fansided is trash with their web site (score errors, name errors, number errors, spelling errors constantly, terrible writing), but they at least provided a prediction for the season:
- Similar to most analyses, they think we have a very good shot of going 7-0 and being a Top 15 team by the time we get to Ohio State. Looking at it, I think Purdue will be tough (not only as a team, but because they are our FIRST GAME OF THE YEAR), I think the next two games will be challenging but absolutely should be wins, and I think Cincy is going to be a nail-biter. They're a legitimately good team.
- I think we beat Northwestern, Illinois, and Rutgers with very little problem. Northwestern plays smart and is well coached (as always), but the talent disparity between us and these three teams is just huge, and we're getting better at running our offensive scheme. Illinois and Northwestern might be tough games, but they are tough games we should win convincingly. Rutgers is just a team to practice on right now.
- I think Ohio State mops the floor with us, and Penn State also is similarly a significant loss, but we're able to sting both them and Penn State with some offensive production. I think we show that we're an improving team, but we're not "there" yet in these games.
- The last three games are Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. I think we "could" win 2/3, but it's more likely that we win 1/3. I think it is unlikely that we lose all three. Considering how consistently good Iowa and Wisconsin have been, and how Fleck has Minnesota turning around, I really could not tell you which we win or lose. Iowa and Wisconsin may have "down" years this year, but honestly, we play both away and they seem to have no problem re-loading talent. Minnesota at home could be a fun revenge opportunity, too.
I see us having a "worst outcome" year of 6-6. I see us having a "great" year if we can hit 7-5 or 8-4, with that brutal back half of the schedule. I will be very, very disappointed if we cannot make a bowl game.
Last thought: Frost is our guy. We will not get anyone better than him ANY time soon, he's young, he's the favorite son of the state, and his track record has been good so far until coming to our dumpster fire of a program. We've extended his contract and are building a nation-leading facility around his program. I think keeping him around is a great idea. Period.