Heres the known result
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Ok, somewheres along the way, someones going to come up with a therapy, preventing alot of intubation, or, closer to a vaccine.So people who were going to die, are still going to die. Got it.
So people who were going to die, are still going to die. Got it.
While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.no you don't "got it" - in fact I can't imagine someone not getting it as badly
the cardiac surgery patients, trauma patients, other nonCOVID related illness moralities are all much higher in the setting of a pandemic when the hospital is overrun
say you are healthy and get in a car accident, need emergent surgery and need ICU care
normally the ICU physician might be caring for 10-12 patients and you would have a dedicated nurse - depending on where and when you have your accident the physician now might be caring for 25-30 and the nurse might have 5 other patients -
In which scenario would you rather be cared for?
While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.
Even in the worst scenarios, there are a few positives.
Cutting back on our normal everyday accidents leaves more room for this crisis. Some models never included these numbers
Understand, as time goes by, and no, I'm not beinpg callous, but many of these people may have died anyways. People in their eighties and nineties, with other physical ailments, over a two month period, a certain percentage did naturally.https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/
These stats are pretty terrifying if you are older than 50. Have to remember, for those who are hoping there are hidden cases it unlikely that you will be hidden if you are over 50. The symptoms are just too violent to be able to hide out and the shortness of breath is too sudden and too common. Statistically this is the spanish flu but for the elderly and compromised. Still dangerous for younger and healthy people but this has a 10-15% fatality rate for people over 60...and a 30-50% severe/critical rate.
Yea, in New York, theyre trying to make a two hospital system, one for the virus, one for normal cares.that is reasonable from a trauma perspective - but people are still going to have heart attacks, have leaky heart valves, have ruptured gallbladders, asthma attacks
some areas are just giving IV lytic therapy for heart attacks because they don't have the ability to perform heart caths/stents or even if they do they don't have the ability to transport a patient from the presenting hospital to a cath lab
245K deaths over the entire year? Wow they're giving themselves quite a lot of room.
So now curve flattening isn't going to save people?
Then wtf did we kill the economy for?
While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.
Even in the worst scenarios, there are a few positives.
Cutting back on our normal everyday accidents leaves more room for this crisis. Some models never included these numbers
Almost all of these people died alone, did not get funerals, and their families had no chance to grieve. It is a slippery slope to decide that "somebody" will die anyway, there are plenty of people out there who could die and it would make the world better environmentally, but that is a precedent none of us should be willing to set lest we be the ones somebody decides is expendable.Understand, as time goes by, and no, I'm not beinpg callous, but many of these people may have died anyways. People in their eighties and nineties, with other physical ailments, over a two month period, a certain percentage did naturally.
This is no doubt excellerating this, which is tragedy in itself, but we have to at least acknowledge this, even if it sucks.
Understand, as time goes by, and no, I'm not beinpg callous, but many of these people may have died anyways. People in their eighties and nineties, with other physical ailments, over a two month period, a certain percentage did naturally.
This is no doubt excellerating this, which is tragedy in itself, but we have to at least acknowledge this, even if it sucks.
maybe it would be our 29 year old with mild controlled asthma. Or a nurse with small children at home taking meds for psoriasis.....Almost all of these people died alone, did not get funerals, and their families had no chance to grieve. It is a slippery slope to decide that "somebody" will die anyway, there are plenty of people out there who could die and it would make the world better environmentally, but that is a precedent none of us should be willing to set lest we be the ones somebody decides is expendable.
At this point I won't say never but I don't think there is going to be a miracle drug like Tamiflu for CV. Vaccination is our quickest best bet IMO and after reading some of the things coming from Fauci, it sounds like he's been reading my posts on this board about expediting the process. I would bet the farm that within 2 months we are vaccinating tens of thousands of critical service providers with an experimental vaccine. IF all goes well, it will be available to the general public by winter. Just an educated guess. The 18 month timeline is complete horses###. Totally unnecessary to take that long.Ok, somewheres along the way, someones going to come up with a therapy, preventing alot of intubation, or, closer to a vaccine.
We arent there yet to just massively die off because our cares are overwhelmed.
there will no doubt be many people with long term debilitating consequences from this virus. We'll have people with permanent lung damage who need meds and probably people with cardiac damage that requires meds or pacemakers. It happens with influenza as well.The other problem is we have no idea of the long time affect this virus will have with those that do recover and have recovered. To say just let it run its course and not worry about doing anything about it is dangerous now and very very short sighted. However if we do not care about lives now or suffering possibly in the future then my all means call off the quarantines and get people back to their regular lives!
We'll end up probably with a similar number of total cases with a flattened curve. Hopefully the fatalities would be lower due to be able to take care of them better. Flattening the curve also as I've said for weeks now, increases the possibility that we can get a vaccine out to protect at risk populations before it runs through all of them. THAT would maybe lower our total case number.flattening the curve isn't about reducing the infections - it is to space them out so things like cardiac surgeries, neurosurgery, trauma care can continue to be delivered at a high level
none of the collateral deaths are figured in these numbers - a cardiac surgery patient with a 10% mortality is cancelled and dies because the hospital is overrun trying to care for patients with a 60% predicted mortality
A lockdown isn't the answer IMO. Multiple epidemiologists have said if we can just get people to practice good hygiene and social distancing that is just as effective.the thing about a virus is it doesn't look at politics or travel habits. it just does what it does. it spreads from people to people. it's a seems like if you really want to stop it , you would have to lockdown for 30 days to make sure. or you can roll the dice and hope not a lot of folks get infected
Totally agree, but even one before their time is terrible, but ss for the rest, it isn't limited to the very infirm or aged, the youngs families also cant visit them either.Almost all of these people died alone, did not get funerals, and their families had no chance to grieve. It is a slippery slope to decide that "somebody" will die anyway, there are plenty of people out there who could die and it would make the world better environmentally, but that is a precedent none of us should be willing to set lest we be the ones somebody decides is expendable.
I believe that just reflects the advancement of disease in individuals. The number of positives/test is leveling off I believe but logically deaths will continue to climb for a little while before it levels off. When it is all said and done I think we'll still be under a 1.5% CFR. (case fatality rate). Remember there a ton of people who aren't getting tested now so it's virtually impossible to get an accurate read on the CFR.Current Johns Hopkins numbers are 2,351 deaths out of 132,637 cases. That's 1.8%. I know this is a crude way to calculate mortality rate, but it's somewhat concerning that with more testing the mortality rate has gone up, not down. We've steadily moved upwards from about 1.3% to around 1.8% over the last few days.
We need therapies in a bad way, for all ages, they would alleviate our systems from being overwhelmed.the elderly with chronic health problems have an exceedingly high mortality with this disease if it progresses to the point of needing ICU care -- the care of these patients should remain aggressive and compassionate but the goals should be symptom alleviation rather than involving ICU care and all the invasive interventions that go along it.
Difficult
I hope so. I've been curious if hospitals have seen a higher than normal number of pneumonia-related deaths going back to February (when one would typically expect the seasonal flu deaths to be declining) and we've actually been somewhere around 1.8%+ all along but didn't have positive confirmation of those hidden pneumonia cases.I believe that just reflects the advancement of disease in individuals. The number of positives/test is leveling off I believe but logically deaths will continue to climb for a little while before it levels off.
We need therapies in a bad way, for all ages, they would alleviate our systems from being overwhelmed.
In Seattle there definitely was some of that going on as early as January from reports on retrospective diagnosis. That said, as compared to influenza the numbers were pretty small. I said before that was known that it was extremely logical given when this started in China and with all of the air travel that we had this virus on January 1st and it was just percolating building numbers.I hope so. I've been curious if hospitals have seen a higher than normal number of pneumonia-related deaths going back to February (when one would typically expect the seasonal flu deaths to be declining) and we've actually been somewhere around 1.8%+ all along but didn't have positive confirmation of those hidden pneumonia cases.
245K deaths over the entire year? Wow they're giving themselves quite a lot of room.
So now curve flattening isn't going then wtf did we kill the economy for?
I think people dont realize how many seemingly healthy individuals have underlying issues. USA isn’t even close to a healthy country, we live long due to great facilities. You overwhelm the healthcare industry and it will get interesting fast.maybe it would be our 29 year old with mild controlled asthma. Or a nurse with small children at home taking meds for psoriasis.....
Just like the millionaires in Washington, who passed a bill by voice count, largest bill in the history of man, where no names are associated with their actual vote, yea or nay, they're concerned for the little guy.
looks like he needs his own zip code.
Like many, until it smacks them in the face, they live in their world. I'm praying for all, hope all are doing the same, but we know better, but I believe there's enough of us.From a totally personal standpoint if hospitals and treatment centers are put under the gun here in Neb it will affect me personally. I have MS and so far due to being able to have transfusions like clockwork every 28 days it has been very manageable. If med facilities do get overrun here in Neb that will change for sure because chances are I would not be one of the people in need of critical care for awhile. It would affect me personally and very well could shorten my life and cause me extra pain. However there are people on this board that have no care about that and keep insisting that this coronavirus is not big deal. To me that tells me that some people have no care or feelings for others or their pain. It is an ugly thing!
2/3 overweight, 1/3 obese.I think people dont realize how many seemingly healthy individuals have underlying issues. USA isn’t even close to a healthy country, we live long due to great facilities. You overwhelm the healthcare industry and it will get interesting fast.
From a totally personal standpoint if hospitals and treatment centers are put under the gun here in Neb it will affect me personally. I have MS and so far due to being able to have transfusions like clockwork every 28 days it has been very manageable. If med facilities do get overrun here in Neb that will change for sure because chances are I would not be one of the people in need of critical care for awhile. It would affect me personally and very well could shorten my life and cause me extra pain. However there are people on this board that have no care about that and keep insisting that this coronavirus is not big deal. To me that tells me that some people have no care or feelings for others or their pain. It is an ugly thing!
My wife was a Hospice nurse in KC. She got out a month ago before all this craziness started going down. She works at a nursing home in a town of 1000.It's serious. My sister works as a hospice nurse in Milwaukee and is getting paid extra for dangerous duty. I'm not being political. I still have to go to work. Every one is avoiding every one. I can't wait for this to this threat to pass. I miss my freedom. Hope you all stay safe.
From a totally personal standpoint if hospitals and treatment centers are put under the gun here in Neb it will affect me personally. I have MS and so far due to being able to have transfusions like clockwork every 28 days it has been very manageable. If med facilities do get overrun here in Neb that will change for sure because chances are I would not be one of the people in need of critical care for awhile. It would affect me personally and very well could shorten my life and cause me extra pain. However there are people on this board that have no care about that and keep insisting that this coronavirus is not big deal. To me that tells me that some people have no care or feelings for others or their pain. It is an ugly thing!
While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.
Even in the worst scenarios, there are a few positives.
Cutting back on our normal everyday accidents leaves more room for this crisis. Some models never included these numbers
There is only a pure lockdown in a few places, in spain and italy, and that is after the cat has been let out of the bag and people have ignored basic and simple instructions. The moment that you shutdown places of business however I think you should go into a pure lockdown and coordinate food deliveries and only emergency outings. I hate the fact that so many people have lost their jobs, so many young people are missing out on education but we aren't willing to keep people from congregating at parks and in public. You either go full bore or not at all, these half measures are a drain on economy but aren't nearly effective enough as we saw in New York. They did half measures for weeks and they are still looking at many thousands of dead. This virus certainly spreads in open air space as well. A football game in northern italy likely infected thousands. The 6 foot distance sounds like fantasy because the virus can stay suspended...any gathering of people in an indoor location can leave enough virus suspended to make vulnerable people sick for hours.A lockdown isn't the answer IMO. Multiple epidemiologists have said if we can just get people to practice good hygiene and social distancing that is just as effective.
A guy on another board I post on is an ER doc. Says they are completely dead.