Covid 6.0

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NorthwoodHusker

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So people who were going to die, are still going to die. Got it.
Ok, somewheres along the way, someones going to come up with a therapy, preventing alot of intubation, or, closer to a vaccine.
We arent there yet to just massively die off because our cares are overwhelmed.
 

jlb321

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So people who were going to die, are still going to die. Got it.

no you don't "got it" - in fact I can't imagine someone not getting it as badly

the cardiac surgery patients, trauma patients, other nonCOVID related illness moralities are all much higher in the setting of a pandemic when the hospital is overrun

say you are healthy and get in a car accident, need emergent surgery and need ICU care

normally the ICU physician might be caring for 10-12 patients and you would have a dedicated nurse - depending on where and when you have your accident the physician now might be caring for 25-30 and the nurse might have 5 other patients -

In which scenario would you rather be cared for?
 
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NorthwoodHusker

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no you don't "got it" - in fact I can't imagine someone not getting it as badly

the cardiac surgery patients, trauma patients, other nonCOVID related illness moralities are all much higher in the setting of a pandemic when the hospital is overrun

say you are healthy and get in a car accident, need emergent surgery and need ICU care

normally the ICU physician might be caring for 10-12 patients and you would have a dedicated nurse - depending on where and when you have your accident the physician now might be caring for 25-30 and the nurse might have 5 other patients -

In which scenario would you rather be cared for?
While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.
Even in the worst scenarios, there are a few positives.

Cutting back on our normal everyday accidents leaves more room for this crisis. Some models never included these numbers
 

Solana Beach Husker

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https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

These stats are pretty terrifying if you are older than 50. Have to remember, for those who are hoping there are hidden cases it unlikely that you will be hidden if you are over 50. The symptoms are just too violent to be able to hide out and the shortness of breath is too sudden and too common. Statistically this is the spanish flu but for the elderly and compromised. Still dangerous for younger and healthy people but this has a 10-15% fatality rate for people over 60...and a 30-50% severe/critical rate.
 
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jlb321

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While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.
Even in the worst scenarios, there are a few positives.

Cutting back on our normal everyday accidents leaves more room for this crisis. Some models never included these numbers
that is reasonable from a trauma perspective - but people are still going to have heart attacks, have leaky heart valves, have ruptured gallbladders, asthma attacks

some areas are just giving IV lytic therapy for heart attacks (3rd world therapy) because they don't have the ability to perform heart caths/stents or even if they do they don't have the ability to transport a patient from the presenting hospital to a cath lab
 
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NorthwoodHusker

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https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

These stats are pretty terrifying if you are older than 50. Have to remember, for those who are hoping there are hidden cases it unlikely that you will be hidden if you are over 50. The symptoms are just too violent to be able to hide out and the shortness of breath is too sudden and too common. Statistically this is the spanish flu but for the elderly and compromised. Still dangerous for younger and healthy people but this has a 10-15% fatality rate for people over 60...and a 30-50% severe/critical rate.
Understand, as time goes by, and no, I'm not beinpg callous, but many of these people may have died anyways. People in their eighties and nineties, with other physical ailments, over a two month period, a certain percentage did naturally.
This is no doubt excellerating this, which is tragedy in itself, but we have to at least acknowledge this, even if it sucks.
 

NorthwoodHusker

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that is reasonable from a trauma perspective - but people are still going to have heart attacks, have leaky heart valves, have ruptured gallbladders, asthma attacks

some areas are just giving IV lytic therapy for heart attacks because they don't have the ability to perform heart caths/stents or even if they do they don't have the ability to transport a patient from the presenting hospital to a cath lab
Yea, in New York, theyre trying to make a two hospital system, one for the virus, one for normal cares.
 

Solana Beach Husker

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245K deaths over the entire year? Wow they're giving themselves quite a lot of room.

So now curve flattening isn't going to save people?

Then wtf did we kill the economy for?
You seem like a troll but the maths are pretty simple....
70 million people in america over 60
25% infection rate for people over 60=14 million infected
10% death rate= 1.4 million dead
25% critical rate= 3 million on ventilators

250k dead would save 900k from death...I am not even counting the thousands under 60 who would die, and my infection rate is lower than projected as is the current death rate for that group. My numbers are best case. Pandemics are the literally the worst thing that can happen to world...famines and droughts are regional and awful, wars are pretty bad, but pandemics statistically kill more than anything else that humans have gone through.
 
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litespeedhuskerfan

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While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.
Even in the worst scenarios, there are a few positives.

Cutting back on our normal everyday accidents leaves more room for this crisis. Some models never included these numbers
I'm a claim adjuster for a high risk ins company and i'm licensed in every state that requires it, which is most.....and will say that our claims are waaaaay down. People aren't leaving their homes nearly as much which reduces their exposure to a loss. I'm a little worried about my job to be honest because we just don't have the work to justify our current staff count since the China virus. I'm hopeful that with the money they're saving on paying claims that they'll keep all their employees...but expecting corporate America to continue to do that for very long is a fantasy. Maybe for a short time, but eventually they'll cut some jobs I'm sure and I couldn't even blame them if they did.
 

Solana Beach Husker

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Understand, as time goes by, and no, I'm not beinpg callous, but many of these people may have died anyways. People in their eighties and nineties, with other physical ailments, over a two month period, a certain percentage did naturally.
This is no doubt excellerating this, which is tragedy in itself, but we have to at least acknowledge this, even if it sucks.
Almost all of these people died alone, did not get funerals, and their families had no chance to grieve. It is a slippery slope to decide that "somebody" will die anyway, there are plenty of people out there who could die and it would make the world better environmentally, but that is a precedent none of us should be willing to set lest we be the ones somebody decides is expendable.
 

jlb321

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Understand, as time goes by, and no, I'm not beinpg callous, but many of these people may have died anyways. People in their eighties and nineties, with other physical ailments, over a two month period, a certain percentage did naturally.
This is no doubt excellerating this, which is tragedy in itself, but we have to at least acknowledge this, even if it sucks.
the elderly with chronic health problems have an exceedingly high mortality with this disease if it progresses to the point of needing ICU care -- the care of these patients should remain aggressive and compassionate but the goals should be symptom alleviation rather than involving ICU care and all the invasive interventions that go along it.

Difficult
 
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kidofSN

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The other problem is we have no idea of the long time affect this virus will have with those that do recover and have recovered. To say just let it run its course and not worry about doing anything about it is dangerous now and very very short sighted. However if we do not care about lives now or suffering possibly in the future then my all means call off the quarantines and get people back to their regular lives!
 
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dinglefritz

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Almost all of these people died alone, did not get funerals, and their families had no chance to grieve. It is a slippery slope to decide that "somebody" will die anyway, there are plenty of people out there who could die and it would make the world better environmentally, but that is a precedent none of us should be willing to set lest we be the ones somebody decides is expendable.
maybe it would be our 29 year old with mild controlled asthma. Or a nurse with small children at home taking meds for psoriasis.....
 

dinglefritz

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Ok, somewheres along the way, someones going to come up with a therapy, preventing alot of intubation, or, closer to a vaccine.
We arent there yet to just massively die off because our cares are overwhelmed.
At this point I won't say never but I don't think there is going to be a miracle drug like Tamiflu for CV. Vaccination is our quickest best bet IMO and after reading some of the things coming from Fauci, it sounds like he's been reading my posts on this board about expediting the process. I would bet the farm that within 2 months we are vaccinating tens of thousands of critical service providers with an experimental vaccine. IF all goes well, it will be available to the general public by winter. Just an educated guess. The 18 month timeline is complete horses###. Totally unnecessary to take that long.
 

dinglefritz

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The other problem is we have no idea of the long time affect this virus will have with those that do recover and have recovered. To say just let it run its course and not worry about doing anything about it is dangerous now and very very short sighted. However if we do not care about lives now or suffering possibly in the future then my all means call off the quarantines and get people back to their regular lives!
there will no doubt be many people with long term debilitating consequences from this virus. We'll have people with permanent lung damage who need meds and probably people with cardiac damage that requires meds or pacemakers. It happens with influenza as well.
 
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dinglefritz

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flattening the curve isn't about reducing the infections - it is to space them out so things like cardiac surgeries, neurosurgery, trauma care can continue to be delivered at a high level

none of the collateral deaths are figured in these numbers - a cardiac surgery patient with a 10% mortality is cancelled and dies because the hospital is overrun trying to care for patients with a 60% predicted mortality
We'll end up probably with a similar number of total cases with a flattened curve. Hopefully the fatalities would be lower due to be able to take care of them better. Flattening the curve also as I've said for weeks now, increases the possibility that we can get a vaccine out to protect at risk populations before it runs through all of them. THAT would maybe lower our total case number.
 
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jrhuskerdad

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Current Johns Hopkins numbers are 2,351 deaths out of 132,637 cases. That's 1.8%. I know this is a crude way to calculate mortality rate, but it's somewhat concerning that with more testing the mortality rate has gone up, not down. We've steadily moved upwards from about 1.3% to around 1.8% over the last few days.
 
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nwualum

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A little off the recent conversation. Saw a tweet this morning that the official number of dead in the Wuhan province in China is listed at 2535. Based on the number of cremations they think the real number is closer to 40,000. To me that’s a lot more believable than the Chinese government number.
 

dinglefritz

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the thing about a virus is it doesn't look at politics or travel habits. it just does what it does. it spreads from people to people. it's a seems like if you really want to stop it , you would have to lockdown for 30 days to make sure. or you can roll the dice and hope not a lot of folks get infected
A lockdown isn't the answer IMO. Multiple epidemiologists have said if we can just get people to practice good hygiene and social distancing that is just as effective.
 

NorthwoodHusker

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Almost all of these people died alone, did not get funerals, and their families had no chance to grieve. It is a slippery slope to decide that "somebody" will die anyway, there are plenty of people out there who could die and it would make the world better environmentally, but that is a precedent none of us should be willing to set lest we be the ones somebody decides is expendable.
Totally agree, but even one before their time is terrible, but ss for the rest, it isn't limited to the very infirm or aged, the youngs families also cant visit them either.
Unfortunately, our health care workers have had to make such decisions where cares are scarce, which really drives home the lowered curve arrempts.
As for public policy? Never.
But it is happening unfortunately.
But, even so, if some had gotten the common flu, a bad cold, it would have possibly killed them, yet, they are included in the overall numbers.
 

dinglefritz

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Current Johns Hopkins numbers are 2,351 deaths out of 132,637 cases. That's 1.8%. I know this is a crude way to calculate mortality rate, but it's somewhat concerning that with more testing the mortality rate has gone up, not down. We've steadily moved upwards from about 1.3% to around 1.8% over the last few days.
I believe that just reflects the advancement of disease in individuals. The number of positives/test is leveling off I believe but logically deaths will continue to climb for a little while before it levels off. When it is all said and done I think we'll still be under a 1.5% CFR. (case fatality rate). Remember there a ton of people who aren't getting tested now so it's virtually impossible to get an accurate read on the CFR.
 
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NorthwoodHusker

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the elderly with chronic health problems have an exceedingly high mortality with this disease if it progresses to the point of needing ICU care -- the care of these patients should remain aggressive and compassionate but the goals should be symptom alleviation rather than involving ICU care and all the invasive interventions that go along it.

Difficult
We need therapies in a bad way, for all ages, they would alleviate our systems from being overwhelmed.
 

jrhuskerdad

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I believe that just reflects the advancement of disease in individuals. The number of positives/test is leveling off I believe but logically deaths will continue to climb for a little while before it levels off.
I hope so. I've been curious if hospitals have seen a higher than normal number of pneumonia-related deaths going back to February (when one would typically expect the seasonal flu deaths to be declining) and we've actually been somewhere around 1.8%+ all along but didn't have positive confirmation of those hidden pneumonia cases.
 
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jlb321

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Quote: Solana Beach Husker said:
Almost all of these people died alone, did not get funerals, and their families had no chance to grieve. It is a slippery slope to decide that "somebody" will die anyway, there are plenty of people out there who could die and it would make the world better environmentally, but that is a precedent none of us should be willing to set lest we be the ones somebody decides is expendable.

We need therapies in a bad way, for all ages, they would alleviate our systems from being overwhelmed.
I get the discomfort .. I have it as well

but this goes on now - every single day - in settings where resources are limited and society is charged with utilizing these resources in the most responsible manner

heart and lung organs for transplant are scarce - they are not offered to those with a lower chance of survival or lowest number of years left to benefit from the therapy or even if you are a smoker in most cases -- society has no problem with this
 
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dinglefritz

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I hope so. I've been curious if hospitals have seen a higher than normal number of pneumonia-related deaths going back to February (when one would typically expect the seasonal flu deaths to be declining) and we've actually been somewhere around 1.8%+ all along but didn't have positive confirmation of those hidden pneumonia cases.
In Seattle there definitely was some of that going on as early as January from reports on retrospective diagnosis. That said, as compared to influenza the numbers were pretty small. I said before that was known that it was extremely logical given when this started in China and with all of the air travel that we had this virus on January 1st and it was just percolating building numbers.
 

RaisingArizona

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245K deaths over the entire year? Wow they're giving themselves quite a lot of room.

So now curve flattening isn't going then wtf did we kill the economy for?
to chop a zero off of that number

meaning it could’ve been 2m if we just let it rip through the country.
 

NorthWillRiseAgain

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maybe it would be our 29 year old with mild controlled asthma. Or a nurse with small children at home taking meds for psoriasis.....
I think people dont realize how many seemingly healthy individuals have underlying issues. USA isn’t even close to a healthy country, we live long due to great facilities. You overwhelm the healthcare industry and it will get interesting fast.
 

kidofSN

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From a totally personal standpoint if hospitals and treatment centers are put under the gun here in Neb it will affect me personally. I have MS and so far due to being able to have transfusions like clockwork every 28 days it has been very manageable. If med facilities do get overrun here in Neb that will change for sure because chances are I would not be one of the people in need of critical care for awhile. It would affect me personally and very well could shorten my life and cause me extra pain. However there are people on this board that have no care about that and keep insisting that this coronavirus is not big deal. To me that tells me that some people have no care or feelings for others or their pain. It is an ugly thing!
 

NorthwoodHusker

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From a totally personal standpoint if hospitals and treatment centers are put under the gun here in Neb it will affect me personally. I have MS and so far due to being able to have transfusions like clockwork every 28 days it has been very manageable. If med facilities do get overrun here in Neb that will change for sure because chances are I would not be one of the people in need of critical care for awhile. It would affect me personally and very well could shorten my life and cause me extra pain. However there are people on this board that have no care about that and keep insisting that this coronavirus is not big deal. To me that tells me that some people have no care or feelings for others or their pain. It is an ugly thing!
Like many, until it smacks them in the face, they live in their world. I'm praying for all, hope all are doing the same, but we know better, but I believe there's enough of us.
 
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RedMyMind

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I think people dont realize how many seemingly healthy individuals have underlying issues. USA isn’t even close to a healthy country, we live long due to great facilities. You overwhelm the healthcare industry and it will get interesting fast.
2/3 overweight, 1/3 obese.
Throw in the meds everyone is on, poor diabetes promoting diet and lack of exercise and hardly zero people are healthy, even young people.
 
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bigboxes

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From a totally personal standpoint if hospitals and treatment centers are put under the gun here in Neb it will affect me personally. I have MS and so far due to being able to have transfusions like clockwork every 28 days it has been very manageable. If med facilities do get overrun here in Neb that will change for sure because chances are I would not be one of the people in need of critical care for awhile. It would affect me personally and very well could shorten my life and cause me extra pain. However there are people on this board that have no care about that and keep insisting that this coronavirus is not big deal. To me that tells me that some people have no care or feelings for others or their pain. It is an ugly thing!
It's serious. My sister works as a hospice nurse in Milwaukee and is getting paid extra for dangerous duty. I'm not being political. I still have to go to work. Every one is avoiding every one. I can't wait for this to this threat to pass. I miss my freedom. Hope you all stay safe.
 

RedMyMind

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It's serious. My sister works as a hospice nurse in Milwaukee and is getting paid extra for dangerous duty. I'm not being political. I still have to go to work. Every one is avoiding every one. I can't wait for this to this threat to pass. I miss my freedom. Hope you all stay safe.
My wife was a Hospice nurse in KC. She got out a month ago before all this craziness started going down. She works at a nursing home in a town of 1000.
 

scarletred

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From a totally personal standpoint if hospitals and treatment centers are put under the gun here in Neb it will affect me personally. I have MS and so far due to being able to have transfusions like clockwork every 28 days it has been very manageable. If med facilities do get overrun here in Neb that will change for sure because chances are I would not be one of the people in need of critical care for awhile. It would affect me personally and very well could shorten my life and cause me extra pain. However there are people on this board that have no care about that and keep insisting that this coronavirus is not big deal. To me that tells me that some people have no care or feelings for others or their pain. It is an ugly thing!
I pray you get the treatment you need in your time of need and that goes to anyone else who will have to face some kind of procedure whether it is kidney stones, Stem cells or a Heart by pass..

Who knows one of those people could be me or someone else...:(
 

cubsker

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While I completely get you, one of the hidden benefits from this is, there'll be much less of this, less people not working means less accidents too.
Even in the worst scenarios, there are a few positives.

Cutting back on our normal everyday accidents leaves more room for this crisis. Some models never included these numbers
A guy on another board I post on is an ER doc. Says they are completely dead.
 

Solana Beach Husker

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A lockdown isn't the answer IMO. Multiple epidemiologists have said if we can just get people to practice good hygiene and social distancing that is just as effective.
There is only a pure lockdown in a few places, in spain and italy, and that is after the cat has been let out of the bag and people have ignored basic and simple instructions. The moment that you shutdown places of business however I think you should go into a pure lockdown and coordinate food deliveries and only emergency outings. I hate the fact that so many people have lost their jobs, so many young people are missing out on education but we aren't willing to keep people from congregating at parks and in public. You either go full bore or not at all, these half measures are a drain on economy but aren't nearly effective enough as we saw in New York. They did half measures for weeks and they are still looking at many thousands of dead. This virus certainly spreads in open air space as well. A football game in northern italy likely infected thousands. The 6 foot distance sounds like fantasy because the virus can stay suspended...any gathering of people in an indoor location can leave enough virus suspended to make vulnerable people sick for hours.
 

Solana Beach Husker

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A guy on another board I post on is an ER doc. Says they are completely dead.
New York city on has 300 open ICU beds...800 are being used for covid and 800 are being used for non-covid...there are a hell of lot of sick americans on any single day.
 
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