There are 409 million people in Lock down quarantine, just China. They're running out of body bags, don't trust the communists, it's much worse than reported.
Corona Virus
- Thread starter Charlie Marlow
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There are 409 million people in Lock down quarantine, just China. They're running out of body bags, don't trust the communists, it's much worse than reported.
I wonder if the Knack will write a song called "My Corona" someday?
I wonder if the Knack will write a song called "My Corona" someday?
Okay, that was funny.
In your dreams George Takei.You're a real hard case there, Judge Judy!
That's interesting. How do you lock down a population the size of the United States?
First, things said here about china, if written in china, most, if not all of us would be arrested.
Secondly, by the other one billion chinese or so.
First US citizen to die,they were in china
You can call it fear mongering if you like. I prefer to call it keeping the public informed. IF this virus is no worse than the flu, why are national public health officials from multiple countries refusing to allow cruise ships unload their passengers? Why did Australia set up an off shore island to house incoming exposed citizens? Why are we housing our citizens on military bases when they get out of China? You have read the stat that while the death toll ratio is similar to influenza, there are still 17%s of the people infected with the virus in CRITICAL CONDITION in the hospital? Influenza doesn't do that. While the percentage of fatalities may remain fairly constant, I suspect that is more due to better diagnosis of mild cases, not that the virus is somehow less serious than originally thought. Part of the concern with this virus IMO is the chicanery of the Chinese government. It appears at least possible to me that this is a weaponized virus that escaped from a lab. We'll get a much better handle on it when it gets rolling in more transparent countries.
This is the unknown, and people are acting like its no big deal.When mice,or dogs or cats or various animals can carry this, unlike the common flu, or,whats this look like when it mutates? Or, just how contagious is this?
Too many unknowns here
Too many unknowns here
I'm not that worried about a Corona virus mutating suddenly again to some more virulent form. Like most Corona viruses, it does appear to be very contagious. I haven't been able to find anything about any cross protection previous exposure to non-human Corona viruses might offer. That would be an interesting retrospective study to conduct.
Historically people have not reacted responsibly to fear and unknown so I wouldn't base the danger of this virus on the reactions of a few nations. Many more than 40k people have been infected. A VAST majority of those younger than 40 experience very mild symptoms, a mild sore throat for a few days. This is something that anybody can feel in the grind of a workweek. 80% of the deaths and critical patients are over 60, and 3/4 have a compromised immune system. Those younger than 60 succumb after +2 weeks of illness, this means that good care can alleviate these issues. One death occurred 41 days after infection...not sure how that was possible.
Patients with underlying health issues have many xs higher chance to develop pneumonia from any common virus. The epicenter is a region that had 11 million people but was already short on medical supplies and facilities. The quarantine has caused this region to have a death rate many times higher than other regions. There aren't supplies and beds for the sick, but the very sick are the ones who are reporting. So you have a lot of very sick people...15% are considered critical, and 2-3% die. The actual death rate is going to be <1%. This hit at the worst place at the worst time, which means it will appear worse. You also have to remember that Asia has a historical relationship with SARS like illnesses. That was a traumatic experience for that part of the world. The moment SARS like came out, then the panic began. Had it been flu like, the response would have been different.
I also have my doubts about its contagious nature...it does appear to be more than flu, but it doesn't seem to be infecting careful medical personnel and we haven't had entire plane loads of people come down with it. I like that people are aware of the danger of viruses but I believe when this is all said and done governments are going to convene and develop a slower readiness plan to combat the effects on economy. ANd that could be disastrous in the case of another more deadly virus. All that china has got from being open about this is a shock to their economy and a possible political earthquake.
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His stay was probably extended. As in quarantined.
The statistic from the Johns Hopkins site that is disturbing to me is the ratio of deaths/recovered which could be extrapolated to a 23% fatality rate similar to SARS and MERS. Also comparing deaths to total cases is a bit misleading as well since you might need to compare the fatalities to the number infected 1-2 weeks back which again would give us a much larger number than 2% mortality (compared to .05% for influenza). What we don't really know is how many are infected but not presenting for testing as their symptoms are only mild. Somewhat reassuring is the apparent few deaths outside China.
Still early days unfortunately and reliable data hard to come by at this point.
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IMO, the fatality rates outside of China could be very misleading. The virus wasn't getting diagnosed outside of the mainland until maybe 10 days ago so most of the cases haven't run their course yet. That "critical condition" percentage is alarming. This isn't like flu as some would want us to believe. I think we've still got a week or two to see how things play out in the people evacuated from China. The disease course and the number of days people can shed the virus looks to be unusually long.
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Looking at the Deaths/Recovered data outside of Wuhan/Hubei province the statistics look much better. For instance Sichuan province shows 1 death vs 60 recovered. Shanghai 1 death vs 41 recovered. Hunan 1 death vs 159 recovered. May suggest the infection numbers are much greater in Hubei/Wuhan than reported and the data there is being skewed as less severe cases are under reported or not being documented.
Hard to draw solid conclusions. Data is all over the place so still in a wait and see mode. I think prob safe to say it is at least as contagious as influenza and most likely more lethal.
The quarantines and travel restrictions may buy us enough time to be better prepared and hopefully a vaccine to be developed.
Hard to draw solid conclusions. Data is all over the place so still in a wait and see mode. I think prob safe to say it is at least as contagious as influenza and most likely more lethal.
The quarantines and travel restrictions may buy us enough time to be better prepared and hopefully a vaccine to be developed.
Those being documented are very sick. There is almost no transportation in Hubai province and only the desperate or obviously ill are going in for help. Those with the mild sore throat and cough could have flu, or a cold and are not going to go anywhere near the hospitals or makeshift quarantine. We have clear documentation in germany that this can be a VERY mild experience for healthy adults and based on the average mean mortality age it is likely that most young people who have it are not even being documented. Those over 60, and those with diabetes and compromised immune systems are overwhelmingly the ones in critical condition and dying. Still scary but not apocalyptic. And in the time that it has been burning through China...you would have expected about 4000 deaths from the flu.
I know people staying in Beijing, last I heard, they were ok there, but they dont go out.
They arent in a position to know anything more, but it appears near normal there, at least in their area.
The severity and tenacity of this thing is worrysome.
They arent in a position to know anything more, but it appears near normal there, at least in their area.
The severity and tenacity of this thing is worrysome.
Quick update. First time I’ve checked the board in 10 days. We are in Thailand. All is going well. No one on our ship has been infected yet. We head to Bangkok tomorrow.
We had a couple of temperature checks in Vietnam so we could get off the ship, but no problem. People are mostly very friendly. Pretty eerie seeing the old US Embassy in Ho Chi Min (Saigon) yesterday.
Singapore is fantastic. And for those who want to know:
Girls in Singapore- Hot!
Girls in Malaysia- yuk. Sorry.
Girls in Vietnam- small and cute.
We had a couple of temperature checks in Vietnam so we could get off the ship, but no problem. People are mostly very friendly. Pretty eerie seeing the old US Embassy in Ho Chi Min (Saigon) yesterday.
Singapore is fantastic. And for those who want to know:
Girls in Singapore- Hot!
Girls in Malaysia- yuk. Sorry.
Girls in Vietnam- small and cute.
You know the board rules. Pictures or else. Good luck getting home.
Novel Coronavirus Mortality Rate, as discussed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:
- The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
- Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.
- There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
- 97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
- Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
- Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
- Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
- Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
- Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
- Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.
- Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.
- National mortality rate was basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.
- Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.
- Elderly people with basic diseases, as long as they have pneumonia, were clinically a high-risk factor regardless of whether it is a coronavirus or not, and the case fatality rate was also very high, so it is not that the case fatality rate of pneumonia is high because of the infection with the new coronavirus. "This point must be explained to everyone," concluded the NHC official.[7]
The mortality rate of 0.16% outside Wuhan/Hubei may rise as time goes along as average time from symptoms to death is about 2 weeks. That number still would be about 2-3 times higher than the average influenza. Looks alot better than 2% though.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-doctor-who-issued-early-warning-on-virus-dies-11581019816
This is interesting, and also conflicting with what’s been posted..
This is interesting, and also conflicting with what’s been posted..
The riots were in Hong Kong, not mainline China. Last I read the majority of rail lines from the mainland to HK were shut down and HK itself is somewhat shut down. HK has also just started a 14 day quarantine for folks coming from the main land.
You could assume that the HK riots have been temporarily stopped while the citizens are dealing with a life or death virus.
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I think he's suggesting the Chinese Govt intentionally unleashed virus from Wuhan Infectious Disease Lab.
Apparently this is a viral pneumonia, and can cause kidney failure in some cases. Not sure though if this is in people with already compromised systems, ie high blood pressure...diabetes...heart disease. A person over 60 has a pretty good chance to have some underlying chronic issue. The Spanish Flu caused nervous system damage and damage to nearly all organs. And that flu killed the young much more often than the old. Some think that Parkinsons in some cases can be attributed to getting the flu in 1918 and surviving it, but with nervous system damage.
Ah - I didn't pick up on that. That would make no sense, IMHO. Thousands of Chinese go into Hong Kong and vice versa every day. Releasing a virus into Hong Kong would certainly be brought back into main land China.
I don't trust China in any aspect. If there is a will there is a way.
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