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Corona Virus

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was always under the impression that it isnt the virus that kills you in flu-like viruses, it's the bacterial infections that follow after the immune system is compromised.
You can have fatal viral effects on organ systems. I knew of one young guy who developed a fatal myocarditis when he was recovering from influenza. He had been feeling better and went out and played "broom ball" on a frozen park pond. He had a cardiac conduction issue and keeled over and died ironically just a couple of blocks from the Mayo Clinic in Rochester or as alums like to call it "the WFMC" (world famous). Secondary bacterial pneumonias are no doubt a fairly common very serious sequela to viral infections but acute viremia or damage to vital organs from inflammation can be fatal as well.
 
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Novel Coronavirus Mortality Rate, as discussed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:

  • The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
  • Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.
  • There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
  • 97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
  • Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
  • Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
  • Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
  • Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
  • Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
  • Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.
  • Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.
  • National mortality rate was basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.
  • Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.
  • Elderly people with basic diseases, as long as they have pneumonia, were clinically a high-risk factor regardless of whether it is a coronavirus or not, and the case fatality rate was also very high, so it is not that the case fatality rate of pneumonia is high because of the infection with the new coronavirus. "This point must be explained to everyone," concluded the NHC official.[7]
It's interesting that they consider "over 60" as elderly. Life is generally short and cheap in China. There's still a fairly high number of fatalities in groups that don't fit the high risk profile. I am still wondering if the fatality rate in those other provinces will not turn higher as the infections in those affected "age". I've been reading pretty consistently of a 17% rate of "critical condition" of all people diagnosed. I've read in several places that hospital stays of over a week are also common with this virus. That's a lot of folks in the hospital for a very long time. Right now the NASA installations have banned entrance into their facilities of anyone who has traveled to China recently. WHO officer says now that new infections around the globe in people with no travel history to China are the "tip of the iceberg". A British family was diagnosed with Corana virus while on a ski vacation to the Alps.
 
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Over 40,000 infected and over 900 dead.
Its pandemic in the correct sense of the word of those folks in the Alps werent in china.
Definition is, person to person transmission from another country not of origin.
 
It's interesting that they consider "over 60" as elderly. Life is generally short and cheap in China. There's still a fairly high number of fatalities in groups that don't fit the high risk profile. I am still wondering if the fatality rate in those other provinces will not turn higher as the infections in those affected "age". I've been reading pretty consistently of a 17% rate of "critical condition" of all people diagnosed. I've read in several places that hospital stays of over a week are also common with this virus. That's a lot of folks in the hospital for a very long time. Right now the NASA installations have banned entrance into their facilities of anyone who has traveled to China recently. WHO officer says now that new infections around the globe in people with no travel history to China are the "tip of the iceberg". A British family was diagnosed with Corana virus while on a ski vacation to the Alps.

Here is my thoughts on this. Yes 16-17% is about what I have been seeing. However that has to be taken with a grain of salt. Obviously the only people who are being reported as having Corna are those who seek medical attention. Those who seek medical attention are probably in pretty tough shape already. Of those 16-17% end up in critical condition. My guess is there are way more who have it, never go to the hospital, and just get over it on their own. If every single person who had symptoms when to the hospital no matter what. Im guessing the number of Corna cases would be sky high, and that would drive the death toll% and those in critical condition way down.
 
Here is my thoughts on this. Yes 16-17% is about what I have been seeing. However that has to be taken with a grain of salt. Obviously the only people who are being reported as having Corna are those who seek medical attention. Those who seek medical attention are probably in pretty tough shape already. Of those 16-17% end up in critical condition. My guess is there are way more who have it, never go to the hospital, and just get over it on their own. If every single person who had symptoms when to the hospital no matter what. Im guessing the number of Corna cases would be sky high, and that would drive the death toll% and those in critical condition way down.
Read a story last week where officials are going into houses finding a few dead people as well. This by itself, plus those who are very sick don't wish to expose themselves further, with potentially low outlooks of their medical system etc, arent counted either, and every house hasn't been checked either.

I also saw a vid where two people were physically being pulled from their residence as well. In some instances it's a free for all, on both sides,counted or not. If a persons convinced they just have been hit very hard by a normal flu, do they then want to potentially expose themselves to corona? After all, their city is under quarantine. Just trying to put perspective on other potentials without having to come to conclusions.
 
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All nine people eating at a hot pot were infected.
Whether or not from the sharing at the dinner, hugs and handshakes, all nine is concerning.

The ages were half in their twenties, half fifties to sixties. It looks to be very contagious.
 
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All nine people eating at a hot pot were infected.
Whether or not from the sharing at the dinner, hugs and handshakes, all nine is concerning.

The ages were half in their twenties, half fifties to sixties. It looks to be very contagious.
most mammalian Corona viruses are extremely contagious and remain fairly viable on inanimate surfaces. The videos of Chinese workers spraying down streets with disinfectant are interesting. Sounds like even with all of the precautions they are trying to take on the Japanese cruise ship, it is spreading fairly rapidly. The cases in Switzerland with no known contact with people who had traveled to China is alarming.
 
All nine people eating at a hot pot were infected.
Whether or not from the sharing at the dinner, hugs and handshakes, all nine is concerning.

The ages were half in their twenties, half fifties to sixties. It looks to be very contagious.
New story out of England where a British businessman contracted the virus in Singapore and evidently infected at least 7 other people in his travel home. There may end up being more and nobody knows who else may be shedding the virus after contacting him or the people he infected. He's being called a "super spreader". This thing is going to explode over the next couple of months IMO. I don't believe we have enough hospital beds in this country to care for all of the people who are going to need hospitalization when this gets going. Also on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia right now they're saying that it seems that the virus was able to spread through the ventilation system in an apartment building to infect other residents in Hong Kong.
 
New story out of England where a British businessman contracted the virus in Singapore and evidently infected at least 7 other people in his travel home. There may end up being more and nobody knows who else may be shedding the virus after contacting him or the people he infected. He's being called a "super spreader". This thing is going to explode over the next couple of months IMO. I don't believe we have enough hospital beds in this country to care for all of the people who are going to need hospitalization when this gets going. Also on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia right now they're saying that it seems that the virus was able to spread through the ventilation system in an apartment building to infect other residents in Hong Kong.
Yea, saw that. That's very worrisome. But also, unless positively detected airborne, you have door handles, doors and railings too.
This particular one has to be thoroughly investigated.
 
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Over 40,000 infected and over 900 dead.
Its pandemic in the correct sense of the word of those folks in the Alps werent in china.
Definition is, person to person transmission from another country not of origin.

A chinese person had a business meeting in Germany...already sickened a number of people in germany...they all recovered without major symptoms...I mean it is contagious...it still isn't 50-100 million in 12 weeks like we have with influenza. Also, we have been sitting at 40000 for a couple days...why is it leveling off?
 
Read a story last week where officials are going into houses finding a few dead people as well. This by itself, plus those who are very sick don't wish to expose themselves further, with potentially low outlooks of their medical system etc, arent counted either, and every house hasn't been checked either.

I also saw a vid where two people were physically being pulled from their residence as well. In some instances it's a free for all, on both sides,counted or not. If a persons convinced they just have been hit very hard by a normal flu, do they then want to potentially expose themselves to corona? After all, their city is under quarantine. Just trying to put perspective on other potentials without having to come to conclusions.
There is no transportation so of course there are hundreds of dead people in apartments, regardless of the virus. A city of 11 million with no mobility for paramedics or police is going to be a mess. 900-1500 people die everyday in China from the flu during peak season. The most deadly day for CV has been less than 100.
 
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There is no transportation so of course there are hundreds of dead people in apartments, regardless of the virus. A city of 11 million with no mobility for paramedics or police is going to be a mess. 900-1500 people die everyday in China from the flu during peak season. The most deadly day for CV has been less than 100.
Actually, not true, it topped a hundred yesterday. It just reached upper mid thirty thousand two days ago, dont know todays numbers yet, I suspect upper forty thousand lower fifty thousand.
So, is this virus becomes as wide spread as more common flus are, just looking at the quarantined area, or populations, its around a fourteenth of the population, or, if one hundred are now dying a day, equal to all common forms of flu.
This is based on having 100 million quarantined.
 
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Actually, not true, it topped a hundred yesterday. It just reached upper mid thirty thousand two days ago, dont know todays numbers yet, I suspect upper forty thousand lower fifty thousand.
So, is this virus becomes as wide spread as more common flus are, just looking at the quarantined area, or populations, its around a fourteenth of the population, or, if one hundred are now dying a day, equal to all common forms of flu.
This is based on having 100 million quarantined.
The fact that it is clear now that this can be transmitted to large numbers of people from a carrier who isn't ill yet is very disconcerting. I would be very surprised if there aren't dozens of people walking around shedding the virus in this country who don't know they have it. We will be very fortunate if the sh## doesn't hit the fan shortly. I've got a trip planned to Boston this weekend frankly it kind of scares me to have to get crammed in an airplane and go through security with people from all over the world in an international airport.
 
Actually, not true, it topped a hundred yesterday. It just reached upper mid thirty thousand two days ago, dont know todays numbers yet, I suspect upper forty thousand lower fifty thousand.
So, is this virus becomes as wide spread as more common flus are, just looking at the quarantined area, or populations, its around a fourteenth of the population, or, if one hundred are now dying a day, equal to all common forms of flu.
This is based on having 100 million quarantined.
That is still x10 less than influenza...and this is in a population with zero immunity. I'll say it again...I am happy that people are paying attention and that it was an issue almost immediately but the panic is going to cause more harm than the virus, and this is a danger when governments decide how to deal with the next one. I bet China doesn't report the next one so quickly.
 
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That is still x10 less than influenza...and this is in a population with zero immunity. I'll say it again...I am happy that people are paying attention and that it was an issue almost immediately but the panic is going to cause more harm than the virus, and this is a danger when governments decide how to deal with the next one. I bet China doesn't report the next one so quickly.
It also causes a "cry wolf" issue in the general public. When one really does hit that people should take precaution and be very worried about. Nobody is going to listen or take it seriously, because the 100 others didn't amount to much.
 
There is no transportation so of course there are hundreds of dead people in apartments, regardless of the virus. A city of 11 million with no mobility for paramedics or police is going to be a mess. 900-1500 people die everyday in China from the flu during peak season. The most deadly day for CV has been less than 100.
There is transportation in those cities. Private citizens are not allowed to travel.
 
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I think this is an informative article although it should be prefaced. Who knows what the accuracy of China's numbers are? Hard to say how this virus will mutate down the road. It may get better, get worse or stay the same. As the article suggests it's too early to say what the R-naught is.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/res...-more-contagious-than-current-data-shows.html
I actually would rather that they were over stating the number of infections and that the death rate was actually higher than what we're seeing. The contagiousness coupled with the shedding before clinical illness sets in is just a very very bad setup.
 
I actually would rather that they were over stating the number of infections and that the death rate was actually higher than what we're seeing. The contagiousness coupled with the shedding before clinical illness sets in is just a very very bad setup.

I agree. Especially when you see rumors/internet stories that the virus has a 24 day incubation and can live on inanimate surfaces for 9 days. These are just rumors and haven't been proven yet but it's sobering to think about.
 
I agree. Especially when you see rumors/internet stories that the virus has a 24 day incubation and can live on inanimate surfaces for 9 days. These are just rumors and haven't been proven yet but it's sobering to think about.
14 days seems to be the max but in cold dry temps it can live for a long time. 9 days seems a little long to me but I suppose if near freezing and it's in some coughed up sputum it would be possible.
 
J
I agree. Especially when you see rumors/internet stories that the virus has a 24 day incubation and can live on inanimate surfaces for 9 days. These are just rumors and haven't been proven yet but it's sobering to think about.
The other day, the WHO indicated that the most common incubation period is 3 days, but there have been instances of up to 24 days
 
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J

The other day, the WHO indicated that the most common incubation period is 3 days, but there have been instances of up to 24 days
yikes. 24 days. Wow. Maybe those 14 day quarantines aren't enough then huh. The more we learn about this, the worse it sounds to me from a population medicine standpoint. There's no way in hell they're going to stop it. This deal while maybe non-fatal in most people could be a death sentence for anybody with asthma, COPD, immunological disease or on chemotherapy.
 
J

The other day, the WHO indicated that the most common incubation period is 3 days, but there have been instances of up to 24 days

This is quite common in illnesses that are mild but where there is no native immune defense. Imagine taking in a very small viral load, but you body has no idea what it is...it could take weeks for that load to grow to a point where symptoms are even felt if the virus isn't very aggressive. I would say the fact is often only causes a sore throat and slight cough in healthy people means it isn't yet very aggressive. If you looked at the mortality rate for influenza in patients older than 60, who have underlying health issues, who have to be hospitalized...you would see a higher rate than 2%.
 
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I've been pretty unfazed by this virus thus far, but I can't help but wonder if I should be at least a little concerned? Is it worth trying to find, (I feel completely stupid asking), a respirator just in case?
 
I've been pretty unfazed by this virus thus far, but I can't help but wonder if I should be at least a little concerned? Is it worth trying to find, (I feel completely stupid asking), a respirator just in case?
Im not afraid of this yet, BUT I always say be prepared sooner than later because later is to late.
 
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Im not afraid of this yet, BUT I always say be prepared sooner than later because later is to late.

Wife and daughter are traveling down South for My wife’s living donation..

We have purchased N95’s and they will be glued to my daughters face ( figuratively)
 
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All nine people eating at a hot pot were infected.
Whether or not from the sharing at the dinner, hugs and handshakes, all nine is concerning.

The ages were half in their twenties, half fifties to sixties. It looks to be very contagious.

I feel better now for not eating the hot pot dinner in Chengdu. :)
 
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They are saying that the virus will be long dead, if expecting a package from China.

They say the virus can only be transmitted in fluid drops from human expulsions. Officials are saying it only takes 1 hour before the virus is dead and not able to infect.

I have a package that's supposed to be enrt. If it ever gets shipped, you can bet your behind that I will douse it in sanitizer and bleach.
 
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They are saying that the virus will be long dead, if expecting a package from China.

They say the virus can only be transmitted in fluid drops from human expulsions. Officials are saying it only takes 1 hour before the virus is dead and not able to infect.

I have a package that's supposed to be enrt. If it ever gets shipped, you can bet your behind that I will douse it in sanitizer and bleach.
put it through the washing machine and then microwave it for half an hour to make sure.
 
That is still x10 less than influenza...and this is in a population with zero immunity. I'll say it again...I am happy that people are paying attention and that it was an issue almost immediately but the panic is going to cause more harm than the virus, and this is a danger when governments decide how to deal with the next one. I bet China doesn't report the next one so quickly.
No, my math is right.
You said 900-1500 die each day in china.
All of china has been exposed to common flus, only about a fourteenth for corona, as theyve been quaranteeing it, spraying the sidewalks etc.
One hundred million being quaranteed, in exposed, or known exposed areas is one fourteenth of 1.4 billion people.
100 a day times 14 equals 1400 a day with total exposure,right?
 
No, my math is right.
You said 900-1500 die each day in china.
All of china has been exposed to common flus, only about a fourteenth for corona, as theyve been quaranteeing it, spraying the sidewalks etc.
One hundred million being quaranteed, in exposed, or known exposed areas is one fourteenth of 1.4 billion people.
100 a day times 14 equals 1400 a day with total exposure,right?
The flu goes from zero activity to high activity in about 3 weeks. Cvirus is everywhere in China by now, its been 6 weeks. It has been half a flu season and there have been 40k infections, and 1000 dead. Meanwhile in 12 weeks flu will kill 80k, and infect 80 million. Remember Flu is a seasonal thing and drops to almost nothing for 3/4 of the year. You and I are likely to die from complications of the flu or another virus...maybe because of cancer or heart disease or diabetes...but a virus is likely to be the final bullet. Maybe it is a specially designed virus that is super contagious, those were created by the russians and it maybe escaped from Wuhan. The spanish flu would immobilize communities due to illness. this is immobilizing due to fear.
 
Wife and daughter are traveling down South for My wife’s living donation..

We have purchased N95’s and they will be glued to my daughters face ( figuratively)
please keep in mind that N95's are charcoal based , and have a short shelf life once opened. Peraps 2 weeks.
 
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