Corona Virus

[VandallHuskerJulie]

I am flying from Spokane to Denver in a couple of weeks to ski with old Nebraska buddies. DIA gets people flying in from all over the world. I don't know what will get me? The corona virus or getting strangled by the Blue Sky Basin chair-lift at Vail.

I'll be flying about the same time from PUW -SEA - EPP. I'm not sure if the virus will get me or overdosing on Runzas when I'm back in Omaha.
(Actually I am taking this virus thing very seriously. We got out of China right before the virus blew up and spouse is set to return to China this summer to teach.)

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

I was just looking at data so far on the mortality rate. Of 81,296 cases, there have been 2,770 deaths. This equates to a mortality rate of 3.4%. 34 times that of the typical flu.

However, of the cases that have been "closed," meaning that the virus has run its course, and the person either survived or died, the mortality rate is 8%. This is the more reliable number, IMO, because many of those that have contracted the virus are still in the early stages. That mortality rate would be 80 times that of the typical flu.

The problem with this virus is that it has a longer incubation period than the SARS virus, meaning that it can be spread much more readily than SARS before the host knows they have it.

Fortunately these mortality rates would be much lower, IMO, with the quality of healthcare in the U.S.

CDC chief said 50% of cases are very mild or have no symptoms...ie...not being counted. That seems fair considering 10% of the population gets influenza.. 100 million in china have likely had the chance to get the virus...10% of that would be 10 million infected...we have only had 80k cases which have caused symptoms...80% of these are mildish, 10% severe, 5% critical, 2% lead to deaths. Respiratory and cardiovascular health seems to be a key determinant of survival. Respiratory health in china is abysmal, they might have a million people die from pollution related illnesses in a year. The virus has been transferred throughout eastern china during the new year celebrations so I don't buy that it hasn't expanded...I believe from outbreaks in Western nations that it is easily fought off by the young and middle aged and often undetected until it hits an elderly person with poor health.

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

Flu hovers between 0.1-0.2%. This is currently hovering around an overall of 3%. The good news is the definitive fatality rate is probably lower as it is highly dependent on accurate diagnostic numbers which we probably don't have. This is because we know you can be both infectious and asymptomatic. The bad news is because we are unable to accurately track who is infectious it makes containment a nightmare.

The end result is this is not like the Flu, will likely become a pandemic, and cause an untold number of casualties across the globe.

Last bit of good news is that China is reporting less confirmed cases today than yesterday so hopefully at least in China it has reached its peak.

https://covid19info.live/

In america (2017-2018) there were 800k hospitalizations from influenza....60k deaths. That is a 7.5% death rate for hospitalizations from flu. The numbers we are seeing in china are people who were taken to the hospital for treatment out of fear of dying... people with mild or no symptoms are not going anywhere near a containment facility as these are a disaster with thousands being quarantined in close proximity for weeks. 45 million people got the flu in america alone in 2018...and the symptoms from influenza are consistently more dramatic than those from Covid for a majority of those infected. I've never met anyone who had influenza A and merely had a sore throat and rested for a few days. Many thousands have had such symptoms from covid...It is a novel virus...and causes pneumonia...the # 1 killer of the elderly. It is scary and the public should be careful but I also worry for the elderly in china who aren't able to get medicine and food because their party official is corrupt and they can't leave their houses.

 

[planored]

Party on

 

[Bugeater]

Party on

 

[mwulf]

"Is this just like flu because people die of the flu and this is very unusual. It is a little bit different but in some ways it's easier and in some ways it's a little bit tougher" .

Sure we are in great hands with the guy who only uses the best words (see above) and a guy who would have us just pray away the virus

 

[tpmcg]

"Is this just like flu because people die of the flu and this is very unusual. It is a little bit different but in some ways it's easier and in some ways it's a little bit tougher" .

Sure we are in great hands with the guy who only uses the best words (see above) and a guy who would have us just pray away the virus

if you havent caught it, yet - its working!

 

[mwulf]

Unfortunately teaching in Los Angeles I am in front of hundreds of germ mules daily with poor hygienic habits

 

[Hoosker Du]

CDC chief said 50% of cases are very mild or have no symptoms...ie...not being counted. That seems fair considering 10% of the population gets influenza.. 100 million in china have likely had the chance to get the virus...10% of that would be 10 million infected...we have only had 80k cases which have caused symptoms...80% of these are mildish, 10% severe, 5% critical, 2% lead to deaths. Respiratory and cardiovascular health seems to be a key determinant of survival. Respiratory health in china is abysmal, they might have a million people die from pollution related illnesses in a year. The virus has been transferred throughout eastern china during the new year celebrations so I don't buy that it hasn't expanded...I believe from outbreaks in Western nations that it is easily fought off by the young and middle aged and often undetected until it hits an elderly person with poor health.

I don't know where you are getting your numbers, but they don't appear to be correct.

Of the 35,682 cases where the virus has run its course..

32,878 (92%) recovered and were Discharged. 2,804 (8%) resulted in Deaths.

Of the 46,501 Currently Infected patients..

38,032 (82%) are in Mild Condition.
8,469 (18%) Serious or Critical.

The total that have died so far after contracting the virus represents a mortality rate of 3.4%.

Again, the mortality rate of those where the virus has run its course (8%) are the more important numbers, because there are large numbers of people where the virus is newly diagnosed and hasn't run its course.

I would say that the U.S. will be better prepared to respond to the virus, and will lower mortality rates, but no one has existing antibodies, regardless of the country, so we need to take this very seriously. Especially since it's incubation period is so long.

 

[Hoosker Du]

The media is making this worse than it really is

One of the more ridiculous posts I've read here. With an incubation period of 2 - 14 days, with somes cases having 20+ day incubation periods, this should be considered a very dangerous virus. People will be infecting many others without knowing it.

 

[Hoosker Du]

every year there’s a scare. How much do you want to bet this falls out of the news cycle and is never talked about again by Valentines Day?

Its symptoms are indistinguishable from the flu. The mortality rate is less than, THE FLU. 200k die every year in China from, wait for it, THE FLU.

So many people are now experts on this virus because of their TV scare propaganda.

We will all be okay. In a month there will be nobody talking about this. I’ll bump this thread then

Bump. Wish you would have been right, but clearly you're not.

 

[tpmcg]

good not to overreact.
be aware and be vigilant.

 

[Baxter48]

One of the more ridiculous posts I've read here. With an incubation period of 2 - 14 days, with somes cases having 20+ day incubation periods, this should be considered a very dangerous virus. People will be infecting many others without knowing it.

The sad part is the media is like chicken little the sky is always falling. No doubt this can be serious but so can the flu so can a tornado or A tsunami. The biggest thing is the media imo needs to be informative but don’t over do it. To much of the time they way over blow it and then the people become complacent.

 

[inWV]

One of the more ridiculous posts I've read here. With an incubation period of 2 - 14 days, with somes cases having 20+ day incubation periods, this should be considered a very dangerous virus. People will be infecting many others without knowing it.

The sad part is the media is like chicken little the sky is always falling. No doubt this can be serious but so can the flu so can a tornado or A tsunami. The biggest thing is the media imo needs to be informative but don’t over do it. To much of the time they way over blow it and then the people become complacent.

The "media" is almost exclusively a profit driven operation and they have soap to sell. And the fact that a potential health crisis is occurring during a Prez election season complicates matters. Those that are familiar with the biology of the virus are exhibiting appropriate concern. Trump has treated the situation as a complication to his re-election prospects.
I hope those professionals in the govt are now drawing up contingency plans. Anybody who can do the math can calculate possible death numbers if the virus becomes wide spread. Should we be freaking out? No. Should we accept the open use of anything other than the best factual information available at any point in time concerning this virus? Also no.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in Korea. Their numbers will be much more reliable than China’s.

 

[Crazyhole]

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in Korea. Their numbers will be much more reliable than China’s.

Im just waiting for someone to come out and say that the virus has mutated.

 

[leodisflowers]

Sounds like Japan is closing all schools for a little bit.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

As contagious as this is, that could be a really bad deal.

Could you imagine if they have to cancel the upcoming football season?

 

[Nate004]

As contagious as this is, that could be a really bad deal.

Could you imagine if they have to cancel the upcoming football season?

Silver Lining... Nebraska goes undefeated in 2020!!!

 

[Baxter48]

As contagious as this is, that could be a really bad deal.

Could you imagine if they have to cancel the upcoming football season?

What about March madness?

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Unless it really starts to break out soon, I think March Madness is safe.

College World Series is good too since we already have a quarantine zone and UNMC nearby for anyone who gets infected.

 

[CheeseRunza]

Unless it really starts to break out soon, I think March Madness is safe.

College World Series is good too since we already have a quarantine zone and UNMC nearby for anyone who gets infected.

Olympic Swim trials are held in June at CHI Health Center in Omaha, I guess we'll see if the center can live up to its name.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

Good point. I had forgot about that.

 

[RedMyMind]

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in Korea. Their numbers will be much more reliable than China’s.

Apparently, South Korea's guy in charge of the coronavirus situation committed suicide. That's not confidence building.

 

[dinglefritz]

In america (2017-2018) there were 800k hospitalizations from influenza....60k deaths. That is a 7.5% death rate for hospitalizations from flu. The numbers we are seeing in china are people who were taken to the hospital for treatment out of fear of dying... people with mild or no symptoms are not going anywhere near a containment facility as these are a disaster with thousands being quarantined in close proximity for weeks. 45 million people got the flu in america alone in 2018...and the symptoms from influenza are consistently more dramatic than those from Covid for a majority of those infected. I've never met anyone who had influenza A and merely had a sore throat and rested for a few days. Many thousands have had such symptoms from covid...It is a novel virus...and causes pneumonia...the # 1 killer of the elderly. It is scary and the public should be careful but I also worry for the elderly in china who aren't able to get medicine and food because their party official is corrupt and they can't leave their houses.

Where are you pulling your stats for the flu from? That varies WILDLY from what is listed from the CDC. The CDC says there MIGHT have been up to 60,000 fatalities OVER THE PAST DECADE. They list the approximate number as being between 12,000 and 60,000 OVER THE PAST DECADE. The fatality rate for all cases of influenza is listed at LESS THAN 1/10TH OF ONE PERCENT in the U.S.

 

[Hoosker Du]

The sad part is the media is like chicken little the sky is always falling. No doubt this can be serious but so can the flu so can a tornado or A tsunami. The biggest thing is the media imo needs to be informative but don’t over do it. To much of the time they way over blow it and then the people become complacent.

If you are listening to that buffoon in the White House, my first advice would be...stop. This is the man that believes wind turbines can cause cancer.

This has nothing to do with the media, like the orange menace would have you believe. Scientists are saying that this has the potential to be very serious. They will tell you the likelihood that this will spread throughout the U.S., because of its incubation period, and because we don't have antibodies to it, because it is a novel virus.

When I see a .1 mortality rate vs an 8% (early figures) mortality rate, it makes me very nervous. Those numbers will undoubtedly come down with people getting treatment earlier, but still, an 8% mortality rate is nothing to take lightly. People die from the flu, because it is so widespread and so many contract it each year. If this were to become as widespread, we are talking deaths in the millions.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Where are you pulling your stats for the flu from? That varies WILDLY from what is listed from the CDC. The CDC says there MIGHT have been up to 60,000 fatalities OVER THE PAST DECADE. They list the approximate number as being between 12,000 and 60,000 OVER THE PAST DECADE. The fatality rate for all cases of influenza is listed at LESS THAN 1/10TH OF ONE PERCENT in the U.S.

Theres numbers, other numbers, and out right get the click hyper lies.
250 million died from....
I know, that getting this virus is 30 times more deadly than the common flu.
So,if only 3% of the people who had the common flu get this, the same number of deaths are to be expected.
The lying dormant,no symptoms thing is our current biggest concern, then an anti viral solution, and build up of anti bodies in the masses.

 

[RedMyMind]

Death isn't the only worry from these illnesses. Severe cardio-respiratory scarring and complications can really screw up peoples' lives

 

[Hoosker Du]

Death isn't the only worry from these illnesses. Severe cardio-respiratory scarring and complications can really screw up peoples' lives

This is a very good point. Thank you for mentioning.

 

[inWV]

kakistocracy - noun. Government by the least suitable or competent citizens of a state.
Prior administrations, be they GOP or Dem, have not been kakistocracies. And a virus of this nature, if it continues to spread, would challenge even the most nimble of governments. And that is why voters should choose among the best people consistent with their political beliefs. And if such a person is not on the ballot that whets their political appetite, they should either suck it up and vote for competent opposition or leave that section of the ballot unfilled.
For our present circumstances, several of HL Menken's quotes would be apt. Here is one: As democracy is perfected, the office of the president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

 

[RedMyMind]

kakistocracy - noun. Government by the least suitable or competent citizens of a state.
Prior administrations, be they GOP or Dem, have not been kakistocracies. And a virus of this nature, if it continues to spread, would challenge even the most nimble of governments. And that is why voters should choose among the best people consistent with their political beliefs. And if such a person is not on the ballot that whets their political appetite, they should either suck it up and vote for competent opposition or leave that section of the ballot unfilled.
For our present circumstances, several of HL Menken's quotes would be apt. Here is one: As democracy is perfected, the office of the president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

All of the Presidential candidates this time around are morons. Dark times

 

[huskerfan66]

The sad part is the media is like chicken little the sky is always falling. No doubt this can be serious but so can the flu so can a tornado or A tsunami. The biggest thing is the media imo needs to be informative but don’t over do it. To much of the time they way over blow it and then the people become complacent.

Just like weather forecast. We're supposed to feel better that it wasn't as bad as the projection

 

[SkerInCo]

All of the Presidential candidates this time around are morons. Dark times

Been the case for some time now.

 

[inWV]

All of the Presidential candidates this time around are morons. Dark times

Just one example (although you probably aren't sympatico with her politics).
Elizabeth Warren
Rutgers Law School - lecturer
Houston Law School - Assoc. Dean
Texas Law School
UPenn Law School - endowed Chair
Harvard Law School - Gottlieb Professor of Law (I'm seeing a trend here. Two Ivy League law schools and some other good ones thought she was good enough to just to employ, but actively recruited her to endowed positions.)
National expert in bankruptcy and commercial
Critical in the establishment of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
United States Senator.
Elizabeth Warren released a detailed plan to deal with Corona over a month ago.

 

[Charlie Marlow]

I thought this was an interesting read about how it blew up so suddenly in Korea

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-south-korea-cults-conservatives-china/

 

[RedMyMind]

Just one example (although you probably aren't sympatico with her politics).
Elizabeth Warren
Rutgers Law School - lecturer
Houston Law School - Assoc. Dean
Texas Law School
UPenn Law School - endowed Chair
Harvard Law School - Gottlieb Professor of Law (I'm seeing a trend here. Two Ivy League law schools and some other good ones thought she was good enough to just to employ, but actively recruited her to endowed positions.)
National expert in bankruptcy and commercial
Critical in the establishment of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
United States Senator.
Elizabeth Warren released a detailed plan to deal with Corona over a month ago.

If she dropped the identity politics, she may be electable. But she chose that hill

 

[cornhustler]

Sounds like Japan is closing all schools for a little bit.

Now's our chance! Keep US kids in school learning math and science 24/7 and close the gap!

 

[Spectrumalaska]

Where are you pulling your stats for the flu from? That varies WILDLY from what is listed from the CDC. The CDC says there MIGHT have been up to 60,000 fatalities OVER THE PAST DECADE. They list the approximate number as being between 12,000 and 60,000 OVER THE PAST DECADE. The fatality rate for all cases of influenza is listed at LESS THAN 1/10TH OF ONE PERCENT in the U.S.

Annually dingle, like each year!

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

 

[Spectrumalaska]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

[Spectrumalaska]

For such a self appointed expert, you sure say some wildly innacurate things.