Nebraska is currently 20-50 against P5 teams since 2017 and has also has home losses to NIU, Troy and Georgia Southern over that stretch. Since 2021 we are 8-24 against P5 times. The reality is NU was almost a complete rebuild as some have noted and some of us (including myself) got way to excited about getting the QB and what appeared to be soft schedule in 2024 along with too much stock in close games against average to below average P5 teams in the past.
While I think there are some major things Rhule will need to deal with in offseason to have any chance of matching success of past rebuilds in year 3, I also think it is counter productive to be hyper critical at this stage given recent history of program. While I think some things deserve criticism, I think I am personally going to avoid being over critical at this stage and sit back and seeing how it plays out the next couple of years as that is better for my health and for the program.
What I do think needs to happen now is staff focus on maximizing our opportunities to create point differential with what we currently have as I way to turn corner this year. If you look at the first half of Illinois or first half of Purdue, you could make and argument that we minimized our point differentials. Illinois could have easily been 28-10 at end of first half and should have had no less than 16 points at half against Purdue.
Finishing out this year and preparing for next I think massive focus in following areas to maxamize point differential.
- Running game to compliment passing game. If you are trying to pound teams and have a really good line Dowdell might be your guy. We are not there anymore so our RB has to get us to 2nd and 6 as much as possible to balance DR and the passing game. Emmitt Johnson YPC is 3.6 greater than Dowdell and double RJ. He is also average more than 13 YPC on 7 receptions which is 5 yards better than RJ. There is no reason to be playing these other backs other than to spell EJ who needs 20 plus touches a game. The reason he is better is he will make that first guy miss at point of attack in both running and passing game which keeps offense balanced and he doesn't fumble which compliments how DR protects football.
- We need to target winners on offense like we did in second half. Barney needs 8-10 touches per game and needs to return punts. I guarantee the dude will bust one in key game that could be difference. EJ needs 20 touches per game to balance the offense from RB spot. Then find ways to get Carter Nelson, Fidone and Lloyd some more touches along with Neyor/Banks as used. This offense can be good and score TD's in red zone if we can just balance passing with running game. We can pound folks when guys like Brix get mature but for now, balance is key in 2024 by taking a bit of pressure of DR and putting him in good positions to attack in less obvious passing situations.
- Play calling needs to assume 4 downs between 35 and 10 yard line. We may not be able to kick FG we should, but maybe offset some by scoring a few more TD's by assuming and using four downs in typical field goal zone and then being perfectly fine when we occasionally fail on 4th down as that is part of plan.
- Defensively we need to go with Wright on one side and Hill on other when fully healthy and get Buford back to safety. We need Wright and Hill up in dudes faces and we also need to play at least 6 in box with two inside LB between tackles on any down where run is threat (1st ten and short yardage). I would also like to see us incorporate a base sets with three 300lb dudes against teams with power run game. I would play Van Poppel 30 snaps against Rutger, Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana in this role and make sure you have three dudes for bigger look in 2025.
This team can absolutely win games against everyone that is not Ohio State but it has no chance if it minimizes point differential like we did in first half against Illinois and Purdue.
Then, next year, we need to have a goal to have the best special teams in conference and devote appropriate resources to adjusting coaching and finding specialist in Portal even if it prevents addressing other areas. Specials teams must be good!
