I believe the goal for this Staff and Roster should be to win the West. I also believe they can get that done and I don’t think this team has to play perfectly for that to happen either. I truly believe that is the talent/depth that has been accumulated and is now game ready relative to the rest of our Division makes this a reasonable goal and the 8-9 wins Moos noted is also a reasonable expectation for this team based on that game ready talent.
Obviously multiple things have to continue to develop for that team to exist on Saturday’s but I don’t think any of them are that far fetched.
1. Can the defense continue the marginal improvement that it has occured statistically in both PPG-YPG each of last 3 years. If we can get marginally tougher against the run again this year with the depth and experience we have in the interior by continuing to improve players and scheme I think its very likely this could be a top 4-5 in both PPG-YPG or another 2 spot improvement. Based on trends in growth of defensive staff and players over last 3 years, this is probably fairly reasonable expectation/hope for a fan.
2. Can this team be at least be Big Ten average in both special teams return and coverage units. Provide Dawson the practice time and access to players he needs and this will happen as its really not that difficult if focused on. I don’t think this will be overlooked in 2021 and will be fully addressed.
3. Lastly, can this be a top quarter of league offense which bring me to the question of do you expect the on-field talent-performance surrounding Martinez in 2021 to be better than 2018
In 2018 with what I believe was only slightly above average (By Big Standards) overall talent on offense paired with a Sieve for a defense Nebraska finished 2 in YPG and 5 in PPG in conference. PPG primarily lagging due to how much time defense was on field, TO margin being average (+1) and not having true home run threats that most high YPG offenses have which means you have to finish to many drives in red zone to get TD’s.
In 2018 excluding QB in discussion, we had 3 guys that were really good college players at that point in their careers in Farmer, Morgan and Ozigbo. We also didn’t have to play a whole lot of guys that simply weren’t very competitive that year which is equally important. Conrad was replaced early in the year at center and that really only left Warner/Wilson as players that were typically overmatched with Morgan/Spielmann thankfully staying healthy and covering up the glaring lack of game ready talent at WR outside of those two. I would also say as FR/So Stoll and Allen were not big ten ready either as blockers or receivers but were at least semi competitive at that point in their development.
So back to the question at hand and brief comparison of position group between 2021 and 2018
Oline - Its probably not a surprise that Farmer and Foster were 5.8/5.9 RR guys and anchored the last decent line we have had. We have three of those starting in 2021. Given the upside of guys like Corcoran/Jurgens/Piper (easily potential nfl players), the depth to cover injuries and the fact you won’t play an overmatched player like Wilson or go through any Freshman growing pains, I take 2021 line in a heart-beat. I am personally all in on this group and think it will be the strength of the team by end of year as Corcoran and Piper continue to develop nearer to there potential with experience.
WR – My primary focus for spring game was whether Toure and Manning would be running with 1’s and past the eyeball test. Thankfully, check and check. While I loved productivity and toughness of Morgan and think Spiellman paired well with him the drop off to Warner was basically playing a non competitive player by big ten standards. I believe Morgan is the only player that starts in 2021 and Warner simply would not play. I also believe there is at least 1 future pro between Toure, Manning, Martin and Betts. Even unknown, I would take 2021 with hesitation after the Spring “game” and it is not Kool Aid drinking to be excited about the possibilities here.
TE – Same basic players as Seniors. This is a no brainer for 2021 even with Fidone injured.
RB – No depth in 2018 after Zig but a guy like him (Good to very good Big Ten Player) would take this offense to a different level in my opinion. I would take 2018 with Zig and Washington. I do believe that all we need to have great shot at West is a couple legit Big Ten backs (see Mills) that develop enough that Frost will use them and limit the QB carries. I believe it is reasonable to expect to big ten average backs to emerge from the group we have given the numbers and recruiting ranking and the fact I believe the line will give them an opportunity to be productive.
QB – Assuming health, I would take a fourth year guy over the freshman version every day. I think we are going to see a team that has real threats and at least one go to player at WR like Morgan in 2018 and a team that can run the ball effectively without Martinez like we could in 2018. I think in that scenario, Martinez is a wholly different threat when he is in run-pass situations in 2nd and 3rd down rather than the 2nd and 3rd and long we have seen the past two seasons. His best year was 2018 the only year he truly had a competent supporting cast and go to player at WR. I think we will see a roughly 20-25 percent improvement in Martinez from 2018 based on the talent he will have again and normal development.
So, two questions
1. Will the offensive talent around Martinez be worse, equal or better than 2018
2. What are your expectations for big ten rank for YPG-PPG based on your expectations
I am obviously on the side that talent will be appreciable better overall given the high-end ceiling of some of the guys we have and the fact we won’t have to play any uncompetitive players anywhere unless a rash of injuries occur. I think with this group of players Frost will be able to call the game he wants to call. I am predicting another #2 for YPG (behind OSU again like 2018) and #3 for PPG (2 spot improvement from 2018) with turnovers causing PPG to be slightly lower than YPG but big plays and better defense will offset most of gap we saw in 2018. I will take it a step further and say I think that is only a slightly optimistic and not a best-case projection based on my perception of talent and belief I still have that Frosts offense can be highly effective in the Big Ten with the right players and he does in fact have the right players now.
Obviously multiple things have to continue to develop for that team to exist on Saturday’s but I don’t think any of them are that far fetched.
1. Can the defense continue the marginal improvement that it has occured statistically in both PPG-YPG each of last 3 years. If we can get marginally tougher against the run again this year with the depth and experience we have in the interior by continuing to improve players and scheme I think its very likely this could be a top 4-5 in both PPG-YPG or another 2 spot improvement. Based on trends in growth of defensive staff and players over last 3 years, this is probably fairly reasonable expectation/hope for a fan.
2. Can this team be at least be Big Ten average in both special teams return and coverage units. Provide Dawson the practice time and access to players he needs and this will happen as its really not that difficult if focused on. I don’t think this will be overlooked in 2021 and will be fully addressed.
3. Lastly, can this be a top quarter of league offense which bring me to the question of do you expect the on-field talent-performance surrounding Martinez in 2021 to be better than 2018
In 2018 with what I believe was only slightly above average (By Big Standards) overall talent on offense paired with a Sieve for a defense Nebraska finished 2 in YPG and 5 in PPG in conference. PPG primarily lagging due to how much time defense was on field, TO margin being average (+1) and not having true home run threats that most high YPG offenses have which means you have to finish to many drives in red zone to get TD’s.
In 2018 excluding QB in discussion, we had 3 guys that were really good college players at that point in their careers in Farmer, Morgan and Ozigbo. We also didn’t have to play a whole lot of guys that simply weren’t very competitive that year which is equally important. Conrad was replaced early in the year at center and that really only left Warner/Wilson as players that were typically overmatched with Morgan/Spielmann thankfully staying healthy and covering up the glaring lack of game ready talent at WR outside of those two. I would also say as FR/So Stoll and Allen were not big ten ready either as blockers or receivers but were at least semi competitive at that point in their development.
So back to the question at hand and brief comparison of position group between 2021 and 2018
Oline - Its probably not a surprise that Farmer and Foster were 5.8/5.9 RR guys and anchored the last decent line we have had. We have three of those starting in 2021. Given the upside of guys like Corcoran/Jurgens/Piper (easily potential nfl players), the depth to cover injuries and the fact you won’t play an overmatched player like Wilson or go through any Freshman growing pains, I take 2021 line in a heart-beat. I am personally all in on this group and think it will be the strength of the team by end of year as Corcoran and Piper continue to develop nearer to there potential with experience.
WR – My primary focus for spring game was whether Toure and Manning would be running with 1’s and past the eyeball test. Thankfully, check and check. While I loved productivity and toughness of Morgan and think Spiellman paired well with him the drop off to Warner was basically playing a non competitive player by big ten standards. I believe Morgan is the only player that starts in 2021 and Warner simply would not play. I also believe there is at least 1 future pro between Toure, Manning, Martin and Betts. Even unknown, I would take 2021 with hesitation after the Spring “game” and it is not Kool Aid drinking to be excited about the possibilities here.
TE – Same basic players as Seniors. This is a no brainer for 2021 even with Fidone injured.
RB – No depth in 2018 after Zig but a guy like him (Good to very good Big Ten Player) would take this offense to a different level in my opinion. I would take 2018 with Zig and Washington. I do believe that all we need to have great shot at West is a couple legit Big Ten backs (see Mills) that develop enough that Frost will use them and limit the QB carries. I believe it is reasonable to expect to big ten average backs to emerge from the group we have given the numbers and recruiting ranking and the fact I believe the line will give them an opportunity to be productive.
QB – Assuming health, I would take a fourth year guy over the freshman version every day. I think we are going to see a team that has real threats and at least one go to player at WR like Morgan in 2018 and a team that can run the ball effectively without Martinez like we could in 2018. I think in that scenario, Martinez is a wholly different threat when he is in run-pass situations in 2nd and 3rd down rather than the 2nd and 3rd and long we have seen the past two seasons. His best year was 2018 the only year he truly had a competent supporting cast and go to player at WR. I think we will see a roughly 20-25 percent improvement in Martinez from 2018 based on the talent he will have again and normal development.
So, two questions
1. Will the offensive talent around Martinez be worse, equal or better than 2018
2. What are your expectations for big ten rank for YPG-PPG based on your expectations
I am obviously on the side that talent will be appreciable better overall given the high-end ceiling of some of the guys we have and the fact we won’t have to play any uncompetitive players anywhere unless a rash of injuries occur. I think with this group of players Frost will be able to call the game he wants to call. I am predicting another #2 for YPG (behind OSU again like 2018) and #3 for PPG (2 spot improvement from 2018) with turnovers causing PPG to be slightly lower than YPG but big plays and better defense will offset most of gap we saw in 2018. I will take it a step further and say I think that is only a slightly optimistic and not a best-case projection based on my perception of talent and belief I still have that Frosts offense can be highly effective in the Big Ten with the right players and he does in fact have the right players now.
