What it will take to get 6+ wins...

[90sman]

Long-time lurker here - I hope I can bring something to the table. I love data, so that will play a large part in what I usually post. Anyway - FPI still likes us to get bowl-eligible at roughly 75%. I also think a 6th win is more likely than not, though each of the final 3 teams we play is ranked well ahead of us in the FPI.

What I think is obvious to most of us is how good the defense has been the past month or so. In fact, the data would say the have been almost heroic. Based on expected points per drive, taking into account starting field position, the defense has held our last four opponents, collectively, to about 70 points less than the average/expected number of points.

Purdue was the best performance, as the Blackshirts held the Boilermakers to almost 28 points less than the expected scoring total. Even this weekend, the Spartans scored 6.85 fewer points than expected using this metric. So while it wasn't their best outing, it was still better than average.

In summary, based on the struggles of our offensive unit, it seems likely that our best chance at snagging at least one more win will hinge on whether or not our defense can put together one more "hero-level" performance. I think they can, and I think it is most likely to happen vs. Iowa - I would think it would be even money that Iowa's offense would be able to score a single TD on Black Friday. Sorry in advance for the lack of formatting; I'm still learning here.

 

[bmb81664]

At least one more win.

 

[KingBlackshirt]

At least one more win.

This

 

[RedMyMind]

win 1 more game, get an extra game and month of practice.

 

[90sman]

At least one more win.

Can't argue with logic. I'm definitely here for this kind of in-depth, hard-hitting analysis!

 

[phoenix4nu]

Long-time lurker here - I hope I can bring something to the table. I love data, so that will play a large part in what I usually post. Anyway - FPI still likes us to get bowl-eligible at roughly 75%. I also think a 6th win is more likely than not, though each of the final 3 teams we play is ranked well ahead of us in the FPI.

What I think is obvious to most of us is how good the defense has been the past month or so. In fact, the data would say the have been almost heroic. Based on expected points per drive, taking into account starting field position, the defense has held our last four opponents, collectively, to about 70 points less than the average/expected number of points.

Purdue was the best performance, as the Blackshirts held the Boilermakers to almost 28 points less than the expected scoring total. Even this weekend, the Spartans scored 6.85 fewer points than expected using this metric. So while it wasn't their best outing, it was still better than average.

In summary, based on the struggles of our offensive unit, it seems likely that our best chance at snagging at least one more win will hinge on whether or not our defense can put together one more "hero-level" performance. I think they can, and I think it is most likely to happen vs. Iowa - I would think it would be even money that Iowa's offense would be able to score a single TD on Black Friday. Sorry in advance for the lack of formatting; I'm still learning here.

I don't think our defense needs to put together a "hero-level" performance to hold Iowa's offense out of the endzone. However, our offense needs to put together a "hero-level" performance and not turn the ball over to Iowa and give them a short field.

 

[90sman]

I don't think our defense needs to put together a "hero-level" performance to hold Iowa's offense out of the endzone. However, our offense needs to put together a "hero-level" performance and not turn the ball over to Iowa and give them a short field.

That's probably true. None of the stats I mentioned are adjusted for quality of opponent, which certainly makes a difference. It probably comes down to how many times we hand Iowa the ball on our side of the 50.

 

[maplesyrup95]

Win a home game. It’s our best chance to get to 6.

 

[redfanusa]

Captain Obvious here, but they need to get more out of the offense. The problem is that they would have already done it if they could. There is no easy fix. They just don't have it. In some ways it is going to come down to luck. Either the defense is going to get turnovers and hand them a short field, or they are going to get shut out. They just need one more win out of three, but none of the three look likely right now.

 

[Rubrum_Magnus_Virtus]

Captain Obvious here, but they need to get more out of the offense. The problem is that they would have already done it if they could. There is no easy fix. They just don't have it. In some ways it is going to come down to luck. Either the defense is going to get turnovers and hand them a short field, or they are going to get shut out. They just need one more win out of three, but none of the three look likely right now.

HH is horrible from the pocket. Start by limiting the plays that have him in the pocket.

 

[thall__]

nobody left on our schedule is very good. that said, we're not very good either.

i don't keep up with injury report stuff, but i feel like both HH and Nash weren't 100% at MSU. those two are the heart & soul of their respective units. i didn't feel the gritty passion of prior weeks watching them against MSU.

part of me wonders if the team got a little high on themselves. they just beat a Purdue team they lost to last year, despite playing an incredibly sloppy game. it's likely they thought they'd walk through a 2-5 dumpster fire. MSU likely has a better roster than most of the teams we played, and it showed on the field.

i'm cautiously optimistic about Maryland. i think the boys come out with their hair on fire, playing to win.

 

[salsa red]

run/qb power/option 90% of the time with 10% yolo bombs off play action.

 

[GaRed]

At least one more win.

 

[TruHusker]

HH is horrible from the pocket. Start by limiting the plays that have him in the pocket.

Have you watched him rolling out? He at least knows how to throw it away. Way away.

 

[BTF69]

I mean, they play 3 crap teams. Two of them that have crap offenses just like NU.

if HH doesn't go full bananas like he did vs MSU, NU will win all 3 games.

I know our resident undercover Badger fans will chime in and defend Wisky while trying to act like they are Husker fans, but Wisky sucks.

 

[TarheelHuskerFan]

Long-time lurker here - I hope I can bring something to the table. I love data, so that will play a large part in what I usually post. Anyway - FPI still likes us to get bowl-eligible at roughly 75%. I also think a 6th win is more likely than not, though each of the final 3 teams we play is ranked well ahead of us in the FPI.

What I think is obvious to most of us is how good the defense has been the past month or so. In fact, the data would say the have been almost heroic. Based on expected points per drive, taking into account starting field position, the defense has held our last four opponents, collectively, to about 70 points less than the average/expected number of points.

Purdue was the best performance, as the Blackshirts held the Boilermakers to almost 28 points less than the expected scoring total. Even this weekend, the Spartans scored 6.85 fewer points than expected using this metric. So while it wasn't their best outing, it was still better than average.

In summary, based on the struggles of our offensive unit, it seems likely that our best chance at snagging at least one more win will hinge on whether or not our defense can put together one more "hero-level" performance. I think they can, and I think it is most likely to happen vs. Iowa - I would think it would be even money that Iowa's offense would be able to score a single TD on Black Friday. Sorry in advance for the lack of formatting; I'm still learning here.

Great post

 

[kevingne]

Have a game with no turnovers on offense and 3 takeaways by our defense. Think of the 2 sack and strip turnovers we had against Iowa last year. Will need something like that to happen.

 

[JOHNNY N]

An offense that turns the ball over 1 or fewer times a game.

 

[huskerfan66]

Long-time lurker here - I hope I can bring something to the table. I love data, so that will play a large part in what I usually post. Anyway - FPI still likes us to get bowl-eligible at roughly 75%. I also think a 6th win is more likely than not, though each of the final 3 teams we play is ranked well ahead of us in the FPI.

What I think is obvious to most of us is how good the defense has been the past month or so. In fact, the data would say the have been almost heroic. Based on expected points per drive, taking into account starting field position, the defense has held our last four opponents, collectively, to about 70 points less than the average/expected number of points.

Purdue was the best performance, as the Blackshirts held the Boilermakers to almost 28 points less than the expected scoring total. Even this weekend, the Spartans scored 6.85 fewer points than expected using this metric. So while it wasn't their best outing, it was still better than average.

In summary, based on the struggles of our offensive unit, it seems likely that our best chance at snagging at least one more win will hinge on whether or not our defense can put together one more "hero-level" performance. I think they can, and I think it is most likely to happen vs. Iowa - I would think it would be even money that Iowa's offense would be able to score a single TD on Black Friday. Sorry in advance for the lack of formatting; I'm still learning here.

Score 1 more point than the opponent in atleast 1 of remaining 3 games

 

[JOHNNY N]

I mean, they play 3 crap teams. Two of them that have crap offenses just like NU.

if HH doesn't go full bananas like he did vs MSU, NU will win all 3 games.

I know our resident undercover Badger fans will chime in and defend Wisky while trying to act like they are Husker fans, but Wisky sucks.

Did HH play worse than he has for any of the wins?

 

[jamsand]

Did HH play worse than he has for any of the wins?

Not trying to absolve HH of his bad game last weekend, but again, for the love of Husker Football, have his head checked out for concussion! Ask Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck about the lingering effects of concussions.. and how they can become worse if not treated/diagnosed.
And I’m not saying that they maybe haven’t already, but HH did not play like he was all there last weekend!

 

[JOHNNY N]

Not trying to absolve HH of his bad game last weekend, but again, for the love of Husker Football, have his head checked out for concussion! Ask Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck about the lingering effects of concussions.. and how they can become worse if not treated/diagnosed.
And I’m not saying that they maybe haven’t already, but HH did not play like he was all there last weekend!

I don't think he played any differently than any of the other games.

 

[king_kong_]

Did HH play worse than he has for any of the wins?

lowest completion percentage, lowest yards/completion, least amount of carries, most sacks of any game he's played.

so, yea, he played worse last week than he has for all of his wins.

but you don't care about facts, so by all means don't let this sway your opinion.

 

[JOHNNY N]

lowest completion percentage, lowest yards/completion, least amount of carries, most sacks of any game he's played.

so, yea, he played worse last week than he has for all of his wins.

but you don't care about facts, so by all means don't let this sway your opinion.

You take things awfully personal around here.

I enjoy your daily meltdowns.

 

[king_kong_]

You take things awfully personal around here.

I enjoy your daily meltdowns.

that was a completely objective post based entirely in fact.

again, please feel free to be specific in where you disagree.

 

[JOHNNY N]

that was a completely objective post based entirely in fact.

again, please feel free to be specific in where you disagree.

I think he looked like the same quarterback he looks like every week.

 

[king_kong_]

I think he looked like the same quarterback he looks like every week.

I know you think that.

facts say otherwise. statistically, he played much worse on Saturday than he has in any of our wins by a fairly wide margin.

like I said, don't let those pesky facts sway your already set in stone opinion.

 

[JOHNNY N]

I know you think that.

facts say otherwise. statistically, he played much worse on Saturday than he has in any of our wins by a fairly wide margin.

like I said, don't let those pesky facts sway your already set in stone opinion.

Why don't you go ahead and lay out those stats for us to digest

 

[king_kong_]

Why don't you go ahead and lay out those stats for us to digest

I already did, jnebby2.

you digested them as me somehow taking your post as a personal slight.

 

[JOHNNY N]

I already did, jnebby2.

you digested them as me somehow taking your post as a personal slight.

No you didn't. You typed a bunch of stuff. You provided no numbers and no links.

Thanks for the follow though. Lol.

 

[king_kong_]

No you didn't. You typed a bunch of stuff. You provided no numbers and no links.

Thanks for the follow though. Lol.

I don't follow you. you're a reply guy on twitter (not shocking whatsoever). you literally tweet to people like the white house press secretary and gary sharpe. LMAO.

here are the numbers:

42.9% completions is lower than HH's previous of 47.1% on the most passing attempts he's had in a game (28)
4.6 yards/attempt is lower than HH's previous of 5, and even worse considering it was on 11 additional attempts than that prior low
14 carries is lower than HH's previous low in a win of 16
7 sacks (great work, donnie) is more than double his previous high of 3

all are worse than any game he's won. I'm sure you'll disagree somehow.

 

[Wasker77]

At least one more win.

I would like to get the win this Saturday. If the Huskers lose to Maryland, then the chances of winning in Madison are probably not in their favor. I think that puts an awfully lot of pressure on them in the Iowa game. That is why I thought it was really bad for the Huskers when they lost to a bad Michigan State team.

 

[JOHNNY N]

I don't follow you. you're a reply guy on twitter (not shocking whatsoever). you literally tweet to people like the white house press secretary and gary sharpe. LMAO.

here are the numbers:

42.9% completions is lower than HH's previous of 47.1% on the most passing attempts he's had in a game (28)
4.6 yards/attempt is lower than HH's previous of 5, and even worse considering it was on 11 additional attempts than that prior low
14 carries is lower than HH's previous low in a win of 16
7 sacks (great work, donnie) is more than double his previous high of 3

all are worse than any game he's won. I'm sure you'll disagree somehow.

Lol, he was marginally worse. He didn't cost them the game. He was the same qb he always is. Inaccurate, has trouble reading defenses, and is turnover prone. He was those things in the wins and he was those things on Saturday.

5 of the 7 sacks were him running into his own oline instead of stepping into the open spaces.

Love how you follow me around the internet. It's so cute. Isn't that what people do on twitter, tweet?





Poor kong.

 

[king_kong_]

Lol, he was marginally worse. He didn't cost them the game. He was the same qb he always is. Inaccurate, has trouble reading defenses, and is turnover prone. He was those things in the wins and he was those things on Saturday.

5 of the 7 sacks were him running into his own oline instead of stepping into the open spaces.

Love how you follow me around the internet. It's so cute. Isn't that what people tenon twitter, tweet?





Poor kong.

same guy who boasts 0.2 rush ypc as "improvement" calls larger numbers "marginal" when they don't fit his narrative

both predictable and typical

can't have it both ways, jnebby2

 

[Landomatic]

I know you think that.

facts say otherwise. statistically, he played much worse on Saturday than he has in any of our wins by a fairly wide margin.

like I said, don't let those pesky facts sway your already set in stone opinion.

His QBR was worse against Northwestern and La Tech.

 

[king_kong_]

His QBR was worse against Northwestern and La Tech.

if you value that stat, then that's something.

I don't value it higher than actual quantifiable numbers because part of it is subjective (difficulty of each play, for example).

do you think Jalen Milroe is the 13th best QB in the country, as QBR suggests?

I don't.

 

[JOHNNY N]

same guy who boasts 0.2 rush ypc as "improvement" calls larger numbers "marginal" when they don't fit his narrative

both predictable and typical

can't have it both ways, jnebby2

Seems that you're the guy wanting it both ways.


You're wrong alot and you don't take it well. You lash out at other posters and try hard to make it personal as a coping mechanism.

You've been accused of a stalker other members of the board and had to create a new handle at least once. You're more a less a joke, and we're all laughing at you.

Thanks for taking the time to go through my twitter replies. Love it.

 

[JOHNNY N]

if you value that stat, then that's something.

I don't value it higher than actual quantifiable numbers because part of it is subjective (difficulty of each play, for example).

do you think Jalen Milroe is the 13th best QB in the country, as QBR suggests?

I don't.

Sure just toss out the stats you don't like. Typical kong.

 

[king_kong_]

Seems that you're the guy wanting it both ways.


You're wrong alot and you don't take it well. You lash out at other posters and try hard to make it personal as a coping mechanism.

You've been accused of a stalker other members of the board and had to create a new handle at least once. You're more a less a joke, and we're all laughing at you.

Thanks for taking the time to go through my twitter replies. Love it.

I'm just stating the facts

Haarberg played his worst game statistically on Saturday.

 

[king_kong_]

Sure just toss out the stats you don't like. Typical kong.

QBR isn't a stat, it's a proprietary metric developed by ESPN.