Warren Nolan RPI at 44

Discussion in 'Husker Baseball Board' started by RobsterMobster, Mar 22, 2017.

  1. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    Yep, our little group of heroes won at a .606 clip this week. Very helpful and thanks to all. :Cool:

    Here is a fun little thing, Utah swept Arizona this weekend and since both are prior opponents that washes out at .500, right?

    Nope. We played Utah twice so their 3-0 weekend goes into our accounting twice. Zona we played just once - count it one time.

    So, that little subset totaled out at .667, not .500. Ha!
     
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  2. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    Yes they were - RPI 18 on selection day. But their conference record was 13-17 and they didn't get in the ACC tournament. Guess that sunk them.

    Same thing happened to them the year before but with an RPI 28.

    Personally, I think they got screwed. Back to back top 10 SOS and top 30 RPI. No invite. That's wacked.
     
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  3. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    Warren Nolan prediction math has us losing three more games to finish 34-18-1 with a 34 RPI and 43 SOS.

    I'm hoping they've overstated our losses by 1 or 2. Would hate to lose even one game to the rest of our pathetic remaining opponents. They are weak and then some.
     
  4. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Dropped to 40 which was expected. Actually thought we'd drop more even with the win so that's good. Time to jump up with a sweep this weekend!
     
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  5. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    After the late games came in we settled into RPI 41. And that's with our prior opponents going 8-4 (.667) yesterday. Adding UNO's lousy 10-30 record to our list burnt us plus home wins are only worth 7/10s of a win.

    Need to play those lousy teams on the road and pick up the road win bonus.
     
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  6. saluno22

    saluno22 Defensive Coordinator
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    A rainout last night wouldn't have been the worst thing for the RPI.

    NSAA has the same issue, and it was mentioned in the OWH in February where the NSAA has a policy that schools have to make an effort to reschedule games that are postponed due to inclement weather, but there are times when schools don't do it because it would hurt a good team's wild card points even if they won. Sent in a proposal whereby adverse effects from victory are omitted from a team's wild card average. That is, if a win against a team contributes adversely to a team's "raw" wild card average, then that game is thrown out to create an "adjusted" wild card average. Just a single iteration elimination, not multiple iterations. (For example, a team with a 10-game "raw" average that includes all games of 44.5 pts (445 total) but they beat a Div 3 (44 pts) and Div 4 (41 pts), those two games would be thrown out of their average to create an "adjusted" average of 45.0 pts (360 adjusted total, 8 games contributing).) Haven't heard back, but that's not unexpected.

    I wonder if the selection committee looks at an adjusted RPI in a similar way.
     
  7. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    The selection committee doesn't have an adjusted RPI in any official way but there are enough stories told about how their individuals sort of unofficially 'adjust' results for cause. If you know what I mean.

    Committee members do have published guidelines they are expected to follow but their results sometimes make us wonder if they free lance just a bit.
     
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  8. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    I heard Omaha may be joining the Missouri Valley. That would be great for us just from an RPI standpoint if they did.
     
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  9. saluno22

    saluno22 Defensive Coordinator
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  10. sklarbodds

    sklarbodds Administrator
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    I'm torn. Yes it sucks tanking RPI when winning a game like yesterday, but at the same time I want RPI to punish the Iowa and MSU schedules of the world. Maybe it could be weighted based on how many of those games you play or something. Like it doesn't hurt you until the 5th one or something
     
  11. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Back up to 38
     
  12. donahues17

    donahues17 Graduate Assistant
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    I partially agree with that. I would think it would hurt the less funded schools or the schools that don't take baseball as seriously as others (many big ten schools). Teams like Iowa don't have many high RPI schools in an area where they can bus too. Nebraska is in the same boat but I can imagine spends more money on baseball to offset that. If those schools would be forced to play better schools and wouldn't be able to afford it and would then be even worse at baseball, hurting us even more.
     
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  13. RobsterMobster

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    Dropped 5 spots to 43
     
  14. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    So we win a home game and a road series but our RPI drops five spots from 38 to 43. How nice. Not. Here's why it happened - our SOS tanked, it fell from 34th all the way down to 51st.

    We added UNO's and OSU's miserable losing records to our body of opponents which pulled down the overall average a bit, plus, the rest of our opponents had a not so good record this past week.

    Our prior opponents did have a winning week (.538) but that was their worst try in five weeks and well below their season average. Pulled that season average down from .596 to .585. May not seem like much but the SOS ranks are crowded tightly together, very little difference between 34th (.5571) and 51st (.5431). And SOS counts for 75% of RPI. So that happened.

    Maybe this week they will get back to a better winning clip. But we also have to add Rutgers' lousy record into the mix. Not going to get better down the line either as we bring on MSU's and Penn St's losing records each in their own turn.

    Bottom line is I don't think our RPI has much chance to get better than 35ish.
     
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  15. coolonetoo

    coolonetoo Sophomore
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    I think we're beyond worrying about RPI at this point. It comes down to winning 8+ of the last 10 regular season games, finishing second or better in the league and having a decent showing (anything but two-and-barbecue) in the conference tourney. Do that and we will be feeling good on Selection Monday.
     
  16. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Up one spot to 42 on the week
     
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  17. bigredrl

    bigredrl Blackshirt
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    yup.....after this past weekend our remaining opponents have RPI's of 152, 91, and 228. Not much will change with even a 7-0 finish.
     
  18. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Up to #40
     
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  19. donahues17

    donahues17 Graduate Assistant
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  20. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    That one hurt badly, fell to 47. Think we have to win out otherwise winning in the tourney becomes crucial. The bright side is if we win out and can win the Big Ten regular season title we will be given some slack for our low RPI.
     
  21. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Settled in at 43 for the week.
     
  22. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    Our SOS has sure hit the skids coming in this week at 65 when it was all the way up to 34 just three weeks ago. This is where we look to see why our RPI is not moving.

    This week was the worst for our opponents who collectively posted an 83-97 losing record - .461. Beating the previous low .471 from week five. Some of this weakness came right up Interstate 80 where UNO and Creighton hung a 1-8 week. A good number of our opponents posted a .500 week but way more had a losing week than a winning week.

    Our friends are turning into bums. They've got two weeks before selection day to redeem themselves. They need to snap to.
     
  23. 50pack

    50pack Walk On
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    That's why I really didn't understand everybody rooting for Northwestern to beat Maryland on Sunday. After we beat Mich State on Sunday, we had a 1.5 game lead minimum on Maryland and with our opponent this weekend, there is no reason we should lose more than one game.

    I was actually rooting for a Michigan loss for some cushion and a Maryland win for the purposes of RPI. I know that one team winning or losing doesn't affect us as much as I think, but did that loss count three times for us, because we played them three times?
     
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  24. coolonetoo

    coolonetoo Sophomore
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    The possibility of a high RPI is gone. Just root for the Huskers to win the league and the tournament.
     
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  25. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    Right, every game has an opponent, play 56 games, count 56 opponent W/L records. Even if it's a duplicate or triplicate opponent. Every game goes in the counting.
     
  26. 50pack

    50pack Walk On
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    So with a Maryland victory on Sunday, our opponents record last week would have been 86-94 (.477) instead of 83-97 (.461). Not much better and probably wouldn't have affected RPI that much.
     
  27. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    Right, Maryland went 2-2 last week and if they had been 3-1 it would change the numbers as you said. And, yes, a one game change makes for a very small difference.

    Our problem is the .461 (or even .477). These numbers are a whole lot worse than the .596 our opponents had back when our SOS was in the mid 30s.
     
  28. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Bumped up to 41 late last night, Utah finished a sweep of USC which helped.
     
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  29. 50pack

    50pack Walk On
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    That's because we hit the easy part of our schedule and our recent opponents that we add each week are bad.
     
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  30. saluno22

    saluno22 Defensive Coordinator
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    Excited to see what Penn State does to our RPI. :(
     
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  31. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    [​IMG]
     
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  32. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Wow! Up to 38! Why is that @k9_r ?
     
  33. k9_r

    k9_r Defensive Coordinator
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    Our opponents are 10-5 in Monday and Tuesday games. That'll play.

    Also this RPI stuff is all relative. The numbers are real but they are strictly for comparison between a team and the field. A team can stand still and still move in the rankings b/c those around them were on the move either up or down.

    Our RPI is .5611 which is a real number - it is a win % calculation - and it ranks us 38th right now. But it's not fixed in value. Today it's worth the 38th spot but, on any given day, that same .5611 could be 40th or 36th or a whole bunch of other ranks.

    Who the hell knows for sure? Our opponents did well so that helped but it wasn't a five spot kind of move. Wasn't that good. Guessing a few people above us have had a bad Monday and Tuesday. Which is OK by me. :Cool:
     
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  34. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    That's a good point, however I'm assuming we will naturally move down this weekend even with a sweep so hopefully starting higher will limit the amount of spots we drop.
     
  35. Truehuskerfan

    Truehuskerfan Athletic Director
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    Dropped to 43 after the PSU loss.
     
  36. huskerfan_12_05

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    Didn't drop as far as I thought it might:... really must win games now tomorrow & sat.
     
  37. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Up to 42 in RPI. Winning the season title was crucial for a team like Nebraska when it comes to selection day.
     
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  38. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    RPI up three spots to 39
     
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  39. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    Up a couple spots to #37. Maryland fell to #36
     
  40. RobsterMobster

    RobsterMobster Administrator
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    At 43 to end the night.
     

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