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Warren Nolan RPI at 44

RobsterMobster said:
Check that, we are now 38. Must have had a few opponents win the last couple hours.
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Yep, our little group of heroes won at a .606 clip this week. Very helpful and thanks to all. :Cool:

Here is a fun little thing, Utah swept Arizona this weekend and since both are prior opponents that washes out at .500, right?

Nope. We played Utah twice so their 3-0 weekend goes into our accounting twice. Zona we played just once - count it one time.

So, that little subset totaled out at .667, not .500. Ha!
 
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saluno22 said:
Wasn't UNC left out last year as a Top-20 RPI team?
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Yes they were - RPI 18 on selection day. But their conference record was 13-17 and they didn't get in the ACC tournament. Guess that sunk them.

Same thing happened to them the year before but with an RPI 28.

Personally, I think they got screwed. Back to back top 10 SOS and top 30 RPI. No invite. That's wacked.
 
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Warren Nolan prediction math has us losing three more games to finish 34-18-1 with a 34 RPI and 43 SOS.

I'm hoping they've overstated our losses by 1 or 2. Would hate to lose even one game to the rest of our pathetic remaining opponents. They are weak and then some.
 
Dropped to 40 which was expected. Actually thought we'd drop more even with the win so that's good. Time to jump up with a sweep this weekend!
 
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After the late games came in we settled into RPI 41. And that's with our prior opponents going 8-4 (.667) yesterday. Adding UNO's lousy 10-30 record to our list burnt us plus home wins are only worth 7/10s of a win.

Need to play those lousy teams on the road and pick up the road win bonus.
 
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k9_r said:
After the late games came in we settled into RPI 41. And that's with our prior opponents going 8-4 (.667) yesterday. Adding UNO's lousy 10-30 record to our list burnt us plus home wins are only worth 7/10s of a win.

Need to play those lousy teams on the road and pick up the road win bonus.
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A rainout last night wouldn't have been the worst thing for the RPI.

NSAA has the same issue, and it was mentioned in the OWH in February where the NSAA has a policy that schools have to make an effort to reschedule games that are postponed due to inclement weather, but there are times when schools don't do it because it would hurt a good team's wild card points even if they won. Sent in a proposal whereby adverse effects from victory are omitted from a team's wild card average. That is, if a win against a team contributes adversely to a team's "raw" wild card average, then that game is thrown out to create an "adjusted" wild card average. Just a single iteration elimination, not multiple iterations. (For example, a team with a 10-game "raw" average that includes all games of 44.5 pts (445 total) but they beat a Div 3 (44 pts) and Div 4 (41 pts), those two games would be thrown out of their average to create an "adjusted" average of 45.0 pts (360 adjusted total, 8 games contributing).) Haven't heard back, but that's not unexpected.

I wonder if the selection committee looks at an adjusted RPI in a similar way.
 
saluno22 said:
A rainout last night wouldn't have been the worst thing for the RPI.

NSAA has the same issue, and it was mentioned in the OWH in February where the NSAA has a policy that schools have to make an effort to reschedule games that are postponed due to inclement weather, but there are times when schools don't do it because it would hurt a good team's wild card points even if they won. Sent in a proposal whereby adverse effects from victory are omitted from a team's wild card average. That is, if a win against a team contributes adversely to a team's "raw" wild card average, then that game is thrown out to create an "adjusted" wild card average. Just a single iteration elimination, not multiple iterations. (For example, a team with a 10-game "raw" average that includes all games of 44.5 pts (445 total) but they beat a Div 3 (44 pts) and Div 4 (41 pts), those two games would be thrown out of their average to create an "adjusted" average of 45.0 pts (360 adjusted total, 8 games contributing).) Haven't heard back, but that's not unexpected.

I wonder if the selection committee looks at an adjusted RPI in a similar way.
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The selection committee doesn't have an adjusted RPI in any official way but there are enough stories told about how their individuals sort of unofficially 'adjust' results for cause. If you know what I mean.

Committee members do have published guidelines they are expected to follow but their results sometimes make us wonder if they free lance just a bit.
 
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k9_r said:
The selection committee doesn't have an adjusted RPI in any official way but there are enough stories told about how their individuals sort of unofficially 'adjust' results for cause. If you know what I mean.

Committee members do have published guidelines they are expected to follow but their results sometimes make us wonder if they free lance just a bit.
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I heard Omaha may be joining the Missouri Valley. That would be great for us just from an RPI standpoint if they did.
 
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I'm torn. Yes it sucks tanking RPI when winning a game like yesterday, but at the same time I want RPI to punish the Iowa and MSU schedules of the world. Maybe it could be weighted based on how many of those games you play or something. Like it doesn't hurt you until the 5th one or something
 
sklarbodds said:
I'm torn. Yes it sucks tanking RPI when winning a game like yesterday, but at the same time I want RPI to punish the Iowa and MSU schedules of the world. Maybe it could be weighted based on how many of those games you play or something. Like it doesn't hurt you until the 5th one or something
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I partially agree with that. I would think it would hurt the less funded schools or the schools that don't take baseball as seriously as others (many big ten schools). Teams like Iowa don't have many high RPI schools in an area where they can bus too. Nebraska is in the same boat but I can imagine spends more money on baseball to offset that. If those schools would be forced to play better schools and wouldn't be able to afford it and would then be even worse at baseball, hurting us even more.
 
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So we win a home game and a road series but our RPI drops five spots from 38 to 43. How nice. Not. Here's why it happened - our SOS tanked, it fell from 34th all the way down to 51st.

We added UNO's and OSU's miserable losing records to our body of opponents which pulled down the overall average a bit, plus, the rest of our opponents had a not so good record this past week.

Our prior opponents did have a winning week (.538) but that was their worst try in five weeks and well below their season average. Pulled that season average down from .596 to .585. May not seem like much but the SOS ranks are crowded tightly together, very little difference between 34th (.5571) and 51st (.5431). And SOS counts for 75% of RPI. So that happened.

Maybe this week they will get back to a better winning clip. But we also have to add Rutgers' lousy record into the mix. Not going to get better down the line either as we bring on MSU's and Penn St's losing records each in their own turn.

Bottom line is I don't think our RPI has much chance to get better than 35ish.
 
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I think we're beyond worrying about RPI at this point. It comes down to winning 8+ of the last 10 regular season games, finishing second or better in the league and having a decent showing (anything but two-and-barbecue) in the conference tourney. Do that and we will be feeling good on Selection Monday.
 
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coolonetoo said:
I think we're beyond worrying about RPI at this point. It comes down to winning 8+ of the last 10 regular season games, finishing second or better in the league and having a decent showing (anything but two-and-barbecue) in the conference tourney. Do that and we will be feeling good on Selection Monday.
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yup.....after this past weekend our remaining opponents have RPI's of 152, 91, and 228. Not much will change with even a 7-0 finish.
 
That one hurt badly, fell to 47. Think we have to win out otherwise winning in the tourney becomes crucial. The bright side is if we win out and can win the Big Ten regular season title we will be given some slack for our low RPI.
 
Our SOS has sure hit the skids coming in this week at 65 when it was all the way up to 34 just three weeks ago. This is where we look to see why our RPI is not moving.

This week was the worst for our opponents who collectively posted an 83-97 losing record - .461. Beating the previous low .471 from week five. Some of this weakness came right up Interstate 80 where UNO and Creighton hung a 1-8 week. A good number of our opponents posted a .500 week but way more had a losing week than a winning week.

Our friends are turning into bums. They've got two weeks before selection day to redeem themselves. They need to snap to.
 
k9_r said:
Our SOS has sure hit the skids coming in this week at 65 when it was all the way up to 34 just three weeks ago. This is where we look to see why our RPI is not moving.

This week was the worst for our opponents who collectively posted an 83-97 losing record - .461. Beating the previous low .471 from week five. Some of this weakness came right up Interstate 80 where UNO and Creighton hung a 1-8 week. A good number of our opponents posted a .500 week but way more had a losing week than a winning week.

Our friends are turning into bums. They've got two weeks before selection day to redeem themselves. They need to snap to.
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That's why I really didn't understand everybody rooting for Northwestern to beat Maryland on Sunday. After we beat Mich State on Sunday, we had a 1.5 game lead minimum on Maryland and with our opponent this weekend, there is no reason we should lose more than one game.

I was actually rooting for a Michigan loss for some cushion and a Maryland win for the purposes of RPI. I know that one team winning or losing doesn't affect us as much as I think, but did that loss count three times for us, because we played them three times?
 
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50pack said:
but did that loss count three times for us, because we played them three times?
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Right, every game has an opponent, play 56 games, count 56 opponent W/L records. Even if it's a duplicate or triplicate opponent. Every game goes in the counting.
 
k9_r said:
Right, every game has an opponent, play 56 games, count 56 opponent W/L records. Even if it's a duplicate or triplicate opponent. Every game goes in the counting.
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So with a Maryland victory on Sunday, our opponents record last week would have been 86-94 (.477) instead of 83-97 (.461). Not much better and probably wouldn't have affected RPI that much.
 
50pack said:
So with a Maryland victory on Sunday, our opponents record last week would have been 86-94 (.477) instead of 83-97 (.461). Not much better and probably wouldn't have affected RPI that much.
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Right, Maryland went 2-2 last week and if they had been 3-1 it would change the numbers as you said. And, yes, a one game change makes for a very small difference.

Our problem is the .461 (or even .477). These numbers are a whole lot worse than the .596 our opponents had back when our SOS was in the mid 30s.
 
k9_r said:
Right, Maryland went 2-2 last week and if they had been 3-1 it would change the numbers as you said. And, yes, a one game change makes for a very small difference.

Our problem is the .461 (or even .477). These numbers are a whole lot worse than the .596 our opponents had back when our SOS was in the mid 30s.
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That's because we hit the easy part of our schedule and our recent opponents that we add each week are bad.
 
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saluno22 said:
Excited to see what Penn State does to our RPI. :(
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50pack said:
That's because we hit the easy part of our schedule and our recent opponents that we add each week are bad.
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RobsterMobster said:
Wow! Up to 38! Why is that @k9_r ?
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Our opponents are 10-5 in Monday and Tuesday games. That'll play.

Also this RPI stuff is all relative. The numbers are real but they are strictly for comparison between a team and the field. A team can stand still and still move in the rankings b/c those around them were on the move either up or down.

Our RPI is .5611 which is a real number - it is a win % calculation - and it ranks us 38th right now. But it's not fixed in value. Today it's worth the 38th spot but, on any given day, that same .5611 could be 40th or 36th or a whole bunch of other ranks.

Who the hell knows for sure? Our opponents did well so that helped but it wasn't a five spot kind of move. Wasn't that good. Guessing a few people above us have had a bad Monday and Tuesday. Which is OK by me. :Cool:
 
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k9_r said:
Our opponents are 10-5 in Monday and Tuesday games. That'll play.

Also this RPI stuff is all relative. The numbers are real but they are strictly for comparison between a team and the field. A team can stand still and still move in the rankings b/c those around them were on the move either up or down.

Our RPI is .5611 which is a real number - it is a win % calculation - and it ranks us 38th right now. But it's not fixed in value. Today it's worth the 38th spot but, on any given day, that same .5611 could be 40th or 36th or a whole bunch of other ranks.

Who the hell knows for sure? Our opponents did well so that helped but it wasn't a five spot kind of move. Wasn't that good. Guessing a few people above us have had a bad Monday and Tuesday. Which is OK by me. :Cool:
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That's a good point, however I'm assuming we will naturally move down this weekend even with a sweep so hopefully starting higher will limit the amount of spots we drop.
 
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