People have been predicting this for 32 years, some day they will be correctAnd, there is going to be a massive rotation out of bonds. China selling may hurry that along.
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People have been predicting this for 32 years, some day they will be correctAnd, there is going to be a massive rotation out of bonds. China selling may hurry that along.
In a past life, I had a Series 7 security license (many years ago). I saw clients lose tens of thousands of dollars by bailing out of bond funds at exactly the wrong time. Usually it was influenced by unscrupulous brokers trying to capture their assets. Right now, bond funds haven't taken the hit yet that they will in the face of rising interest rates. I don't think most investors really believe that rates are going to rise appreciably yet. We'll see.People have been predicting this for 32 years, some day they will be correct
Why exactly are you predicting an increase in interest rates when the majority of the globe is in a deflationary cycle?In a past life, I had a Series 7 security license (many years ago). I saw clients lose tens of thousands of dollars by bailing out of bond funds at exactly the wrong time. Usually it was influenced by unscrupulous brokers trying to capture their assets. Right now, bond funds haven't taken the hit yet that they will in the face of rising interest rates. I don't think most investors really believe that rates are going to rise appreciably yet. We'll see.
I'm not predicting it, the fed has already announced a rate increase and expectations from some of the people I've read predict more rate increases in the near future. There has been some increase in wages and our current fed chair is scared to death of inflation.Why exactly are you predicting an increase in interest rates when the majority of the globe is in a deflationary cycle?
I'm not predicting it, the fed has already announced a rate increase and expectations from some of the people I've read predict more rate increases in the near future. There has been some increase in wages and our current fed chair is scared to death of inflation.
Scared to death of inflation? The U.S. has been trying its damnedest to create some inflation for a couple of years now, but can't.I'm not predicting it, the fed has already announced a rate increase and expectations from some of the people I've read predict more rate increases in the near future. There has been some increase in wages and our current fed chair is scared to death of inflation.
Sharp increases are a risk once it starts as bond longs begin to bail. That money will go into equities.Interest rates will creep up, because they have no other direction to go. But sharp increases are very unlikely.
Not to mention that the soil in many parts of the far north is very rich and productive. The the long sunny summer days make for productive growing seasons. The primary crops are potatoes, carrots, lettuce, and cabbage.
Not to mention that the soil in many parts of the far north is very rich and productive. The the long sunny summer days make for productive growing seasons. The primary crops are potatoes, carrots, lettuce, and cabbage.
An ex-Fed governor was on CNBC this week, and he basically said that the Fed caused the frontloading of a market rally in 2009. The somewhat scandalous part is that they did this on purpose with full intent in order to create a wealth effect. And he also admits that the Fed has no ammunition left.
Unfortunately, nearly all of the wealth effect benefited the already wealthy.
We need rates to rise, for numerous reasons. Bonds funds will drop, but nothing like stocks in a bear market, and will recover within their duration. The bigger complication with rising rates is that it will wipe out the speculative gains in the market due to the Fed-sponsored frontloaded rally. And it will expose other bubbles that were blown by easy money.
I look at it this way:This is what frustrates me and yes this can get a little political. There is all of the talk about helping the middle class and all the rich people are screwing the little guy and we need to tax them more and blah blah blah. Turns out the entire set up started in 2009 was completely designed to increase the ability of the wealthy to increase their wealth. I can say I have no problems with people who have wealth and have earned it. But when the government makes winners and losers then I have a problem. They created a money supply by printing more money and making it cheap. This allowed big money people easy access to cheap money and they know what to do with that. The problem is in this case it was personal wealth and not corporate so it did not find its way to the average person. I hear the cries that the middle class is getting hammered, the truth is the middle class has to go away in some eyes, then we only have two classes to work with. One is easy, give them everything and you take everything from the other - its the ones in the middle that cause the problems.