OT: China stocks dive 7% Early

scarletred

Nebraska Legend
Jun 17, 2001
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Triggering a halt to trading for the rest of the day....

Could be an interesting day tomorrow for our market as well.
 

sparky62

Administrator
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I'm stil in. But this ride could last a while. Might be a time to put things into bonds.
 

scarletred

Nebraska Legend
Jun 17, 2001
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Always a good time to put money back into the market when it gets kicked down enough....

Your right this might last a little longer.
 

TruHusker

Offensive Coordinator
Sep 21, 2001
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Look around at the world markets. China economy is in deep do-do, Middle East is a disaster, Russia flexing their muscles, North Korea testing H bombs, oil under $35 a barrel because of low demand and terrorists seem to do whatever they want. The economy has been on the edge for over a year. Look at what the DOW and other indexes did last year. It ain't looking pretty. It all depends on whether you are a buy and hold or dollar cost average person. I am old and can't stand back and watch another blood letting. Bonds? Hmmm, we will see. Many prognostications that we are very close again to world recession. What do you do when you are already near zero for interest rates for like 7 years?
 
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SnohomishRed

Offensive Coordinator
Jan 31, 2005
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Look around at the world markets. China economy is in deep do-do, Middle East is a disaster, Russia flexing their muscles, North Korea testing H bombs, oil under $35 a barrel because of low demand and terrorists seem to do whatever they want. The economy has been on the edge for over a year. Look at what the DOW and other indexes did last year. It ain't looking pretty. It all depends on whether you are a buy and hold or dollar cost average person. I am old and can't stand back and watch another blood letting. Bonds? Hmmm, we will see. Many prognostications that we are very close again to world recession. What do you do when you are already near zero for interest rates for like 7 years?
Lots of good thoughts there - China always did have somewhat of a Ponzi thing going over there - I think however their trouble helps us here. You will see a huge influx of cash into real estate around the world but especially in the US on the coasts - It is already happening it will just accelerate. This will drive values up and move normal buyers to the suburbs to find affordable housing. Builders are going strong to meet this demand but right now cant find enough labor to keep up. The gist is that this will be a huge economic driver over the next few years. The fed just did a .25% increase and you should expect at least 3 more this year.

All in all the US looks good and the economists I have spoken with agree - of course the world is very connected so it is possible we are dragged back down again
 
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scarletred

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Already down close to 400 before the market opens.

Hold on hopefully this WON'T be a historic day.:(
 
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Lots of good thoughts there - China always did have somewhat of a Ponzi thing going over there - I think however their trouble helps us here. You will see a huge influx of cash into real estate around the world but especially in the US on the coasts - It is already happening it will just accelerate. This will drive values up and move normal buyers to the suburbs to find affordable housing. Builders are going strong to meet this demand but right now cant find enough labor to keep up. The gist is that this will be a huge economic driver over the next few years. The fed just did a .25% increase and you should expect at least 3 more this year.

All in all the US looks good and the economists I have spoken with agree - of course the world is very connected so it is possible we are dragged back down again

Plenty of US companies will be hurt by China's woes though. Any multinationals that rely on the Chinese consumer will be impacted the most. This will result in another bubble where only the middle and lower classes end up getting hurt
 

NikkiSixx

Recruiting Coordinator
Sep 14, 2013
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I wouldn't worry about it, just a yearly reset so that the rest of the year it can climb higher and everyone feels good about it.

Oil prices are nothing to worry about since this is being done on purpose by the Saudi's. They hope to drive American producers out so they can continue to keep their market share.

North Korea would be a very big deal if indeed it was an H-bomb. That would actually trigger a response from all parties. It sounds like the H-bomb part was just a claim, and was a lower level atomic style test. Still isn't cool, but whatever.

China is trying to turn it's economy from a manufacturing one into a service based one. I think it will take a long time for that. There are better places to manufacture products, and businesses have been moving mfg out of China for years now, so not sure the impact to the US is quite as big as it used to be.

I think the real growth is still in SE Asia, it's just much more difficult to invest in from way over here. From my contacts over there, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines are all experiencing high growth as manufacturing shifts to their markets.
 
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dinglefritz

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Jan 14, 2011
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I wouldn't worry about it, just a yearly reset so that the rest of the year it can climb higher and everyone feels good about it.

Oil prices are nothing to worry about since this is being done on purpose by the Saudi's. They hope to drive American producers out so they can continue to keep their market share.

North Korea would be a very big deal if indeed it was an H-bomb. That would actually trigger a response from all parties. It sounds like the H-bomb part was just a claim, and was a lower level atomic style test. Still isn't cool, but whatever.

China is trying to turn it's economy from a manufacturing one into a service based one. I think it will take a long time for that. There are better places to manufacture products, and businesses have been moving mfg out of China for years now, so not sure the impact to the US is quite as big as it used to be.

I think the real growth is still in SE Asia, it's just much more difficult to invest in from way over here. From my contacts over there, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines are all experiencing high growth as manufacturing shifts to their markets.
The problem is for people who produce Ag or petro products. The rising dollar coupled with increased South American production of beef and protein is not good news for US farmers. Likewise the lower oil prices is already showing up with tough news for oil or petro product producing states. Texas, North Dakota and Alaska in particular are taking a huge hit. The concern about the stock and bond markets is where it really hits home for people with any kind of retirement funds. Bonds will go lower and the uncertainty has people pulling money to the sidelines it appears in the stock market. SE Asia is a high risk area to invest in but there are plenty of funds available to invest in that area. Worried people holding cash or metals doesn't help our economy. BTW, 500 rounds of ammo isn't enough.
 
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Nate004

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Feb 13, 2007
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Lot of cold blooded killers in here. Tell me, is a million gazillion rounds of ammo enough?

Personally, if things ever come that, being an insulin dependent diabetic, I'll be pretty much dead anyways... So maybe I'm living in dreamland, but hey let me live in a dream where the need for guns and ammo will be minimal at worst, and humanity will find a way without having mobs of poor raiding the rich with their guns.
 
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dinglefritz

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Lot of cold blooded killers in here. Tell me, is a million gazillion rounds of ammo enough?

Personally, if things ever come that, being an insulin dependent diabetic, I'll be pretty much dead anyways... So maybe I'm living in dreamland, but hey let me live in a dream where the need for guns and ammo will be minimal at worst, and humanity will find a way without having mobs of poor raiding the rich with their guns.
We'll all die from something. I just want to try to protect some of my assets for my kids while I'm alive. Better look at history. Our country is quickly fading into oblivion. When you have more people on government assistance than working we have a problem. We don't build anything anymore (or at least not much) and all we do is shuffle paper. I can't buy anything other than a hammer built in the US for my farm and it costs 3 times as much as the Chinese made one. Almost all of our tools, cars, ag parts etc are made elsewhere. People bitch about the environment and then with some of our ridiculous laws drive ALL the manufacturing to China that has ZERO environmental and labor laws. The only thing we do well is grow food and that market has been perverted by huge multi-national chemical and processing corporations from overseas. We may still be the greatest country in the world for now but I'm not bullish on the future if we continue down our current path.
 

WestCoastCornhusker

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I think the USA imports way more than they export/sell stuff to China. So our imports just got cheaper. There could be risk in developing nations usa dollar denominated debt that they will struggle to pay back , another financial jolt to the global finance system, but mostly developing nations. I wouldn't sell but start dollar cost buying. Most money is made in the stock market if you have the cajones to buy during recessions/dips.
 

dinglefritz

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Jan 14, 2011
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I think the USA imports way more than they export/sell stuff to China. So our imports just got cheaper. There could be risk in developing nations usa dollar denominated debt that they will struggle to pay back , another financial jolt to the global finance system, but mostly developing nations. I wouldn't sell but start dollar cost buying. Most money is made in the stock market if you have the cajones to buy during recessions/dips.
I've made money in stock paper, but my best investment over the past 35 years has been farmland. The stock market is a house of cards. Farmland is too high right now for the commodity prices, but they ain't makin anymore dirt. I know that one way or another I have some guaranteed cash rent income from the land and a hedge against inflation as long as the government doesn't come in and steal it from me like they are doing out west to some farmers and ranchers. Interesting choice. Go to prison or have the charges dropped if you agree to deed your ranch over to the government.
 

TheBeav815

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The world has been dying for an excuse for a bear market for a while now, looks like they may let China be that excuse. Warning lights have been flashing out of there for several years that their little growth plane tried to climb too steeply and was going to stall.

The real shit show won't happen until they stop buying our bonds.

As far as investing, unless you're heavily exposed to China in particular or were going hard on emerging markets (always risky), you should do ok. I mean it MIGHT be Armageddon, but I'm keeping my money right where it is and not touching it because the odds favor it not being Armageddon, which means the markets will rise again in a while.

I happened to be buying into my first 401k plan around 2009. The growth I got between the company match and the returns in that span was incredible.

Buy the dip, boys. Buy the dip. Warren likes big, safe, boring dividend-payers and you should, too.
 

TheBeav815

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Never enough.
I know you're not serious about ammo as a commodity, but in all seriousness expect another huge boom (pun intended) in firearm sales. Nothing really changed, it's basically a tightening of some loopholes and backdoors on laws that already existed, but people will buy 'em up like today it's this and tomorrow it's the jackboots at the door with the gun meltin' truck parked out front.
 
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LBremser

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Feb 17, 2008
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The real shit show won't happen until they stop buying our bonds.

.
The Chinese holdings of US Treasuries has been declining for 2-3 years, i.e. they stopped buying a while ago. There is plenty of demand for US Treasuries, both at home and abroad.
 
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dinglefritz

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Jan 14, 2011
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The Chinese holdings of US Treasuries has been declining for 2-3 years, i.e. they stopped buying a while ago. There is plenty of demand for US Treasuries, both at home and abroad.
Unfortunately rising interest rates is not a good thing for bond holders or bond fund holders.
 

WestCoastCornhusker

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I've made money in stock paper, but my best investment over the past 35 years has been farmland. The stock market is a house of cards. Farmland is too high right now for the commodity prices, but they ain't makin anymore dirt. I know that one way or another I have some guaranteed cash rent income from the land and a hedge against inflation as long as the government doesn't come in and steal it from me like they are doing out west to some farmers and ranchers. Interesting choice. Go to prison or have the charges dropped if you agree to deed your ranch over to the government.

There is also huge potential for new farmland in eastern Europe and Russia. The farm land is there.
 

ExxHusker

Walk On
Nov 21, 2001
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Autos, real estate, unemployment are all doing well. Interest rates are still accommodative and will be for foreseeable future. Like Warren Buffett says be greedy when others are fearful. I bought Shell and BP on the pre market this morning. 8-9% dividend yield taxed at 15%. Oil won't stay below total production costs. Lots of great opportunities.
 
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dinglefritz

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Jan 14, 2011
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There is also huge potential for new farmland in eastern Europe and Russia. The farm land is there.
"new" farmland in Eastern Europe and Russia? Maybe an increase in productivity from adopting more modern farming practices but I'm not sure where you're finding "new" farmland there. The expense of clearing wooded areas couple with poor productivity of much of the soils makes that questionable.
 

ExxHusker

Walk On
Nov 21, 2001
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And, there is going to be a massive rotation out of bonds. China selling may hurry that along.
 

otismotis08

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I know you're not serious about ammo as a commodity, but in all seriousness expect another huge boom (pun intended) in firearm sales. Nothing really changed, it's basically a tightening of some loopholes and backdoors on laws that already existed, but people will buy 'em up like today it's this and tomorrow it's the jackboots at the door with the gun meltin' truck parked out front.

I stocked up and also grabbed a now unavailable item the day after San Bernardino. Prices will continue to rise, no doubt.
 

dinglefritz

Nebraska Legend
Jan 14, 2011
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And, there is going to be a massive rotation out of bonds. China selling may hurry that along.
Bonds are in a loser situation for the near term but stocks are all paper. We hold way too much paper (roughly 50%) mainly because that's our only real option in our retirement funds. Paper can and does goe to ZERO. I've had stocks double in a year only to go to zero in a week because of some market problem totally out of their control. Fortunately I have usually been able to bail out with some profit in hand, but the point is ITS JUST PAPER. If you are in stocks or bonds for that matter and you don't harbor some healthy fear, you're a fool. It's like holding a loaded gun.
 

TheBeav815

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Autos, real estate, unemployment are all doing well. Interest rates are still accommodative and will be for foreseeable future. Like Warren Buffett says be greedy when others are fearful. I bought Shell and BP on the pre market this morning. 8-9% dividend yield taxed at 15%. Oil won't stay below total production costs. Lots of great opportunities.
This times a number so large it needs scientific notation.

8% dividend on a company like Shell is such a no-brainer it makes you wonder why everyone isn't doing it. Then you realize that most investors have no effing idea what they're doing and need clean pants every time the Dow sheds 150 points. They treat it like gambling, trying to figure out who the bigger winner is this week. The data shows us that historically, just about nobody is very good at that.

When you realize most dividends pay out quarterly, you're effing insane not to get in on something like that.

If you let the interest run for about 30 years, you end up with 10-11 times your initial before taxes...which doesn't suck.

Both the easiest and the hardest things for me to do as a young investor are leave it alone, leave it alone, leave it alone.
 

WestCoastCornhusker

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"new" farmland in Eastern Europe and Russia? Maybe an increase in productivity from adopting more modern farming practices but I'm not sure where you're finding "new" farmland there. The expense of clearing wooded areas couple with poor productivity of much of the soils makes that questionable.

There are like several Texas sized areas of potential new farmland, huge parts don't need much deforesting. In fact, Russia is now giving huge land pieces away for free to its citizens. If food prices ever got high enough, they'd find a way.
 

WestCoastCornhusker

All-American
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This times a number so large it needs scientific notation.

8% dividend on a company like Shell is such a no-brainer it makes you wonder why everyone isn't doing it. Then you realize that most investors have no effing idea what they're doing and need clean pants every time the Dow sheds 150 points. They treat it like gambling, trying to figure out who the bigger winner is this week. The data shows us that historically, just about nobody is very good at that.

When you realize most dividends pay out quarterly, you're effing insane not to get in on something like that.

If you let the interest run for about 30 years, you end up with 10-11 times your initial before taxes...which doesn't suck.

Both the easiest and the hardest things for me to do as a young investor are leave it alone, leave it alone, leave it alone.

and yet Uncle Warren wants no part of it.
 

Cosmoc

Recruiting Coordinator
Gold Member
Jun 26, 2004
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There are like several Texas sized areas of potential new farmland, huge parts don't need much deforesting. In fact, Russia is now giving huge land pieces away for free to its citizens. If food prices ever got high enough, they'd find a way.

Not to mention that the soil in many parts of the far north is very rich and productive. The the long sunny summer days make for productive growing seasons. The primary crops are potatoes, carrots, lettuce, and cabbage.
 

ThrowBones92

Redshirt Freshman
Sep 5, 2011
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Autos, real estate, unemployment are all doing well. Interest rates are still accommodative and will be for foreseeable future. Like Warren Buffett says be greedy when others are fearful. I bought Shell and BP on the pre market this morning. 8-9% dividend yield taxed at 15%. Oil won't stay below total production costs. Lots of great opportunities.

Exactly. Which would you rather do, go shopping during a Black Friday-type sale or when there is nothing is on sale and you pay full price?
 

NikkiSixx

Recruiting Coordinator
Sep 14, 2013
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he's on record saying he doesn't invest in things that he doesn't understand, so for sure he won't own a tech stock either.
 

scarletred

Nebraska Legend
Jun 17, 2001
37,748
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Closed 392....Admit not as bad as I thought it might be.....but look for tomorrow to be another Bear Market.

By tomorrow we will have lost over 1000 on the Dow.

Anyone want to quess when we will have our first day in 2016 on the + side.
 
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