Latest CDC numbers:
- Total cases: 15,219
- Total deaths: 201
No way this kills 1.5-3mil people. A NBA example. High risk group
- Thread starter SoFL Husker
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As I've said, there are a lot of logistics that would have to be determined, but why would people be forced to take shelter with infected people within a 3-week period? Why would they be forced to move from their current place of residence?
It's pretty much a given that mortgages, rent, utilities, etc.. would have to be placed on a grace period, where no one would have to pay any of these for this 3-week period, and probably beyond. There would also have to be government assistance heavily involved.
I would have to think those that work in the livestock industry would have to be quarantined on site. Not sure exactly how this would be handled, but we wouldn't stop eating proteins. They would still be consumed. But this would add another layer of logistics to consider.
We wouldn't just let livestock die. By this lockdown being only 3 weeks, livestock would have to be tended to during this time by those that tested negative.
Those working in all food industries would have to be tested up front. Just not sure how we would effectively quarantine them. Again, bring together multiple minds to solve these problems.
No we are going to furious with the media and our govt. Much worse than the virus is going to be the impact to the economy. The virus will end up being very minor.
Remember 60+ people die every day from the flu.
Most of the deaths in Italy were people who had been in China.
That math is absolute garbage. That "study" with literally made up inputs could be made to say anything you want it to.
The fact of the matter is the media hyped this and people are scared because it's from China.
But older people and those with respiratory problems are vulnerable to it. Guess what, they're vulnerable to everything else too. We don't stop our lives for that stuff.
50k+ a month die in the USA from heart disease.
I'm seeing 264 deaths and 19, 640 total cases in the U.S. This is a 1.34% mortality rate. I'm sure there are numerous that have it that haven't been tested, but it seems like it will be pretty close to that probable 1% mortality rate that Anythony Fauci referred to.
So...just let this go and let it kill hundreds of thousands in the US in the next year? Or possibly even a million plus? C'mon man..
I know. There are going to be different numbers on different sites. I think we'll see these current guidelines reducing new cases and deaths. We may not see it for a couple weeks, but we'll start seeing the results of our efforts of following these guidelines.
Yes, the NBA study is where it's at. We have decided to wreck our economy and quarantine our people for no reason. Let's just yell fake news and pretend everything is fine.
The problem with arguing with people that aren’t buying in, is they win the argument in 2 out of 3 arguments and the 3rd argument no one really wins.
because
they win the argument if
A) off chance that this is an evil ploy by the government to lower oil prices or some other evil plan...
They win the argument if
B) we all band together, beat this thing the right way and we never really know the actual magnitude of what this could have been... they win the argument because it seems like it was nothing but in all actuality is what’s. We just can’t prove it.
or
C) we lose millions of lives... no one wins there
but on the flip side, in 2 out of 3 scenarios quarantine was the right thing to do.
because
they win the argument if
A) off chance that this is an evil ploy by the government to lower oil prices or some other evil plan...
They win the argument if
B) we all band together, beat this thing the right way and we never really know the actual magnitude of what this could have been... they win the argument because it seems like it was nothing but in all actuality is what’s. We just can’t prove it.
or
C) we lose millions of lives... no one wins there
but on the flip side, in 2 out of 3 scenarios quarantine was the right thing to do.
First you have no proof it would kill that many. Most of you are quoting mortality rates based off the number tested. Thats a dumb way to get an inaccurate number. Most of the tests are done on people who are ill. Then you're saying that's what's going to happen to the rest of the population. The only problem is we know most of the population doesn't even get sick from it. So going around saying 1% of the population is going to die is incredibly ignorant and panic drivenand horrible math.
There is the example of the cruise ships that had it. Read the article for a much better understanding about the math.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate
Pneumonia kills 4000 people in the USA... Per MONTH. And we have a vaccine for it. We don't stop our lives for that.
Pneumonia kills 4 million a year globally. And it has been for the last idk, what 50 years? Where was your outrage and fear?
You're just scared because it's new and it's foreign from China. And the media hyped it.
People die. I'm not sorry you can't accept that. Safeguard the few who are at high risk. Let the world continue living. Stop with the ridiculous government overreaches.
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You’ve got an idiotic comprehension problem. I’ll dumb it down for you. There have been estimates this could effect 56% of the population. There have been estimations it would have a 1-2% fatality rate.
So, 56% of 327.2 million (of the least healthy population in the industrialized world) is 183,120,000. 1% is 1.83 million. Did I lose you with that idiotic math, or do I need to draw a picture with crayons.
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I believe the mandatory lock downs are proof the powers that be don't have a firm grasp of the situation. So the hypothetical that X number of people will die cannot be accurately measured. Thousands die every month from the flu and yet we all go to work. Is this worse than the flu? Potentially much worse, but thus far.. no. I don't have faith in the health system after this event. Not able to test. Short on supplies. Embarrassing.
Sadly this could be the case. Effective medicine is administered precisely and only in the affected area(s) we are irradiating the entire body. We don't know what will work because we are unable to test in sufficient numbers to ascertain the scope of the problem. Everything we are doing is reactionary so there is no way to determine if the measures taken will be effective. Point being we could already be past the point of any meaningful containment window. So then enervating the economy would have been for naught.
If by me, you mean all the Dr’s, Scientists and policy makers, then yes. But I’m sure you and SoFL have a better grip on it.
Not really. The worlds balance sheet in total is going down. Money and wealth are really fictional and rules can be remade, history has shown us that. Please show me whose getting rich on this? For a big part, we are creating debit to ourselves. Consumption is going down in many things. Something that honestly isn’t a bad thing. In many dam ways this thing is a blessing on fears we have that you don’t even know we have. yeah TP and hand sanitizer are low goods right now but those are easy to make. We just need to increase production
And when this is all over Economists are going to have to earn their pay. Think the world economy can stand a broke US? Think again. All their riches would lose
The numbers I initially ran on this virus were based on 3,700 actual cases identified as testing positive in the U.S. at the time. In looking back, that was just 5 days ago.
We are now at 19,640 cases that have tested positive in the U.S. Taking into account the 6-day doubling pandemic model proposed by people that know this stuff much better than me, we should be at 7,400 total cases in the U.S right now. This is no doubt because we've started testing much more, but have increased that number by a multiple of 5... In just 5 days.
When I doubled the numbers every 6 days based on the 3,700 cases on March 15th, the total number of infections of this virus would total...app. 15.5 million active cases by June 2nd. This is based on not taking any active Social Distancing plan into account.
Now...I just redid these numbers a minute ago. If we look at 19,640 cases on March 20th, and doubled the number every 6 days, by May 31st we would have...(brace yourself)...80,445,440 active cases. Again, this is if we don't follow Social Distancing guidelines.
If we look at Dr. Fauci's statistics of this virus having a 1% mortality rate, that would take us to 804,454 deaths from those numbers of active cases. That means that more than likely...by the last part of June (a month later) we would lose close to that number of people to this virus. Again, this is if we don't implement Social Distancing.
And people still want to go out and about, not alter their daily schedule, and not worry about this f**king virus??!!! Think again! We are all NOW required to take responsibility for each other's health!
Again "Those numbers are outlandish...until they aren't."
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For the record, I wasn’t 100% on board with all these precautions. I figured a lot of people (not all) but a lot have preexisting conditions that put them at risk due to their own life choices. I also think some on this board completely have no clue just how many people in this country are not healthy. This virus is deadly to the old and those with health conditions and we have a lot of those in this country.
These precautions are being taken because if none were taken our health care system would likely shut down. May not sound like a big deal until there are no ER beds for when your dad has a sudden heart attack, or your teens get in a really bad accident.
I’ve been exposed to a lot more information than the general public in recent days. You doubters need to find out just how many hospital beds you have in your community. How full are they? How many respirators does the hospital have? Could the hospitals handle an influx of patients that would require hospitalization to survive? Do the health care workers in your area have adequate protective equipment for their own safety?
The whole world is completely unprepared for this situation. Protective equipment & respirators are in short supply. We’re a week plus into taking drastic measures and we still can’t even test people who are obviously sick let alone screen for those carrying the virus. Those on the front lines are begging people to stay home so they aren’t overwhelmed.
These precautions are being taken because if none were taken our health care system would likely shut down. May not sound like a big deal until there are no ER beds for when your dad has a sudden heart attack, or your teens get in a really bad accident.
I’ve been exposed to a lot more information than the general public in recent days. You doubters need to find out just how many hospital beds you have in your community. How full are they? How many respirators does the hospital have? Could the hospitals handle an influx of patients that would require hospitalization to survive? Do the health care workers in your area have adequate protective equipment for their own safety?
The whole world is completely unprepared for this situation. Protective equipment & respirators are in short supply. We’re a week plus into taking drastic measures and we still can’t even test people who are obviously sick let alone screen for those carrying the virus. Those on the front lines are begging people to stay home so they aren’t overwhelmed.
That sounds like something a Roman citizen could have said during the Pax Romana. History has show that the mightiest of civilizations can crumble... Ozymandias anyone? My world view: functioning economy > virus protection but that is just my .02 cents. I hope we can get past this quickly because I am going to need to get laid soon! Yeah its easy for you married guys to advocate sheltering in place but I aint got no woman of my own!
Decent article worth reading.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html
yeah I bet a Roman citizen felt the same before it’s empire fell but one big difference is we still have farm land. That’s an asset you can’t live with out. This is still a relatively new country and land with very good agriculture.
Don’t bother. He’s already dusted off his red armband and khaki uniform while practicing his best goose-step.
I’ll bet @Hoosker Du is heiling in the mirror as we speak, in between posts begging for the nanny state to keep him safe using any means necessary.
I appreciate your post; from my standpoint one of the most rational on this thread. I have worked in healthcare for 40 years; 35 as a RN. I have worked ICU, Long Term Care, with clients who have diabetes etc. I have worked in a lot of medical areas. I currently work in eldercare; so you know the risk factors and why I am so passionate about being prepared and following CDC guidelines. In my own family, there are members with diabetes, heart conditions, asthma, kidney failure etc. So this concern affects my professional life....and my personal life. Yes, this pandemic may not kill 1.5 to 3 mil people. But here in Lincoln, trying to come up with beds for an extra 200 people who need hospital care would be a challenge. There arent the beds...there isnt the staff...there arent the supplies. And considering a 70 yr old family member just got off a ventilator for another medical condition....this scares me. I would love to bury my head in the sand and be on the " this is a joke" team. But that wouldnt jive with who I am as a person or a healthcare professional.
What a surprise, two guys that have probably never opened a Science book agreeing. What are the odds??
Listen Jed and Jethro, how about you two file for a special waiver to attend 3rd grade Science classes again? You obviously missed out on that year. Had you already been swept away by the allure of the carnival and taken your post as assistant to the assistant manager of the Tilt-A-Whirl?
At any rate, study up, and when you advance to 7th grade level Science, give us a ring and we'll bring you up to speed on all this 'virus 'stuff..
And you have no proof it wouldn't kill that many. I have knowledge from experts. I have knowledge of the incubation period vs the flu, and time to first symptoms compared to the flu, and both have shown how quickly this virus spreads. I also have knowledge of previous pandemics that didn't have vaccines and what they did.
You are correct on one thing...the numbers on this virus aren't known. We do know, however, that the mortality rate of those that have tested positive, and have run the course of the virus, is now at 11%.
You may not understand this virus, which is fine, but don't stand in the way of others that do, and don't increase the likelihood of others contracting it. That's all the rest of us ask. It does kill, and if we don't follow guidelines developed by those that study these viruses, we increase the risk of others contracting it.
Ask yourself, would you be OK if you infected your spouse, kids, mom, dad, brother or sister, or any of my other relatives with this virus? If your answer is yes, then I guess you'll have to deal with those consequences. The rest of don't want to catch it.
Edit - BTW, you do understand that many of those cases of pneumonia start with viruses, that eventually turn into secondary bacterial infections, right?
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People seem to be really hung up on the death rates. The death rate for COVID-19 really isn't that high. That isn't the big concern/reason for a quarantine.
The reason there is a need for a quarantine is threefold:
A. COVID-19 has an infection rate of 2.5 (meaning each infected person is likely to infect 2.5 other people who then also infect 2.5 other people etc.) and
B. That 97.5 percent of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection with a median time of 5 days
C: AND MOST IMPORTANTLY you are infectious during incubation - ie. BEFORE you start showing symptoms..
A and B really aren't that bad at all but when combined with C create a massive problem.
Compare COVID-19 with SARS. A very similar yet worse fatality and infection rate virus.
Both were spread via airborne and touch based transfer and Sars actually had a higher infection rate and double the fatality rate of COVID-19.
The difference is that Sars was only contagious AFTER you started showing symptoms - and generally only highly infectious in the 2nd week of those symptoms being present.
So with SARS you had 8,096 cases with 774 deaths and was present in 64 countries TOTAL. Because as soon as you started showing symptoms you were quarantined and the virus was contained it was cut off fairly quickly - and that was even after China spent months keeping it quiet and refusing to share info with the WHO.
COVID-19 already is over 258,000 cases with 11,277 deaths and is present in 164 countries.
The fact that you are spreading the virus for several days before you even know you are sick and you are almost guaranteed to infect multiple people with a virus that then shows symptoms in a week is the problem because then everyone gets sick around the same time. THIS is why they want a quarantine.
In a trickle effect this is a very manageable virus and will have a low death rate overall, but if everyone starts getting sick at the same time it will absolutely cripple the medical care system and not only will people with COVID-19 have a significantly higher rate of death than currently shown, but EVERYONE who has any health issue in the meantime will also have a higher rate of death because the system will be so overloaded dealing with virus patients that all other illness treatment will also suffer massive slowdown.
This is what we were seeing in Italy. Our healthcare systems can handle several millions of sick people over time if necessary, what they cannot handle is several millions of people all sick at the same time.
The reason there is a need for a quarantine is threefold:
A. COVID-19 has an infection rate of 2.5 (meaning each infected person is likely to infect 2.5 other people who then also infect 2.5 other people etc.) and
B. That 97.5 percent of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection with a median time of 5 days
C: AND MOST IMPORTANTLY you are infectious during incubation - ie. BEFORE you start showing symptoms..
A and B really aren't that bad at all but when combined with C create a massive problem.
Compare COVID-19 with SARS. A very similar yet worse fatality and infection rate virus.
Both were spread via airborne and touch based transfer and Sars actually had a higher infection rate and double the fatality rate of COVID-19.
The difference is that Sars was only contagious AFTER you started showing symptoms - and generally only highly infectious in the 2nd week of those symptoms being present.
So with SARS you had 8,096 cases with 774 deaths and was present in 64 countries TOTAL. Because as soon as you started showing symptoms you were quarantined and the virus was contained it was cut off fairly quickly - and that was even after China spent months keeping it quiet and refusing to share info with the WHO.
COVID-19 already is over 258,000 cases with 11,277 deaths and is present in 164 countries.
The fact that you are spreading the virus for several days before you even know you are sick and you are almost guaranteed to infect multiple people with a virus that then shows symptoms in a week is the problem because then everyone gets sick around the same time. THIS is why they want a quarantine.
In a trickle effect this is a very manageable virus and will have a low death rate overall, but if everyone starts getting sick at the same time it will absolutely cripple the medical care system and not only will people with COVID-19 have a significantly higher rate of death than currently shown, but EVERYONE who has any health issue in the meantime will also have a higher rate of death because the system will be so overloaded dealing with virus patients that all other illness treatment will also suffer massive slowdown.
This is what we were seeing in Italy. Our healthcare systems can handle several millions of sick people over time if necessary, what they cannot handle is several millions of people all sick at the same time.
Wrong, it's a form of the flu that attacks lungs and increases blood pressure due to low o2 sat levels. It kills. All of that said, the most people will die because of system overload and inability to treat people. This problem is being addressed and we will see if its enough.
Actually everyone will gloat. At some point we will hit a peak and the curve will head downward. Many will claim victory. I am already disgusted thinking about the parades certain politicians will no doubt hold.
Because the risk of not doing anything and being wrong would be much worse
There are already a huge number of infections. I used the NBA as an example because ALL OF THEM HAVE BEEN TESTED.
If you tested everyone in the US, I think the picture would become a lot clearer. Many people have this, have had it and gotten over it, it's the damn flu people. Sensationalism is ruling the day and we're freaked out about a flu-like virus.
Oh, and by the way, all those healthy NBA players infected are gonna be JUST FINE.
Yes, world class athletes have a good chance of being fine. But why do you insist on calling it the flu. It is not!
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Because it is a flu "strain" that kills people in low numbers just like past flu strains that kill people in low numbers.
Forest Gump is doing great too!
So you are making the active choice to be ignorant. It is a virus like the flu, but that doesn’t make it a strain of the flu, the flu comes from the influenza virus, this comes from the Coronavirus, even a child can understand this. Forest Gump didn't have a choice, you do.
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You are really uninformed. You would better to just sit this one out.
Condensed to address the most stupid parts of your post.
We do have proof it won't kill that many. You're choosing to ignore that proof and extrapolate a percentage to the entire population. That's not the way it works. As has been pointed out to you. It's simple math that you're apparently incapable of doing.
It was on a cruise ship and 17% got it.
You don't have any knowledge from "experts." You have fear. You're scared. I get it. Uncertainty coupled with fear makes you panic and cry on the internet for the entire world to shut down.
I understand the virus just fine. I understand it kills only a small percentage LIKE ALL OTHER VIRUSES
This is not special just because it came from China and you're scared.
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