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Corona Virus

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cruelhalo said:
A couple of websites for people to follow the Coronavirus. The first one is like a game page from ESPN, a box score with live stats. The second site seems to update a bit more frequently.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/...o&utm_medium=zalo&utm_campaign=zalo&zarsrc=30

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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The first one is produced by people at Johns Hopkins. Likely a good source. They have some interesting comments about the spread of the virus. They say that apparently it is MOST contagious during incubation. I'm not sure how they've surmised that. I would think that Johns Hopkins would be involved with the case in Boston. I'm hoping 3 weeks pass in Boston with no new cases.

second site has the number of cases at 24552 with 3223 of the patients in "critical condition" (13%). Deaths at 492 so far. The course of the illness seems to last 1-2 weeks so there could be a lot more deaths on patients just being reported as ill. Recovered is only reported at 907 so that's less than 4% that are considered recovered. Yikes.
 
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Solana Beach Husker said:
Not sure the mutation rate of Co-V but it is never a good idea to let a virus work its way through the human population because evolution will hone it into a more efficient spreader and killer over time until the whole population has enough immunity to make it less harmful. This virus started as only communicable from animal to human, then it mutated so it can spread easily from human to human, and the next step is for it to become more violent or less violent. One single carrier could carry a mutation that allows it to kill 10% infected but still sicken 30% of the population. You are looking at 2 billion death toll in that case. The spanish flu started as a highly virulent but not deadly strain...in kansas, then spread to France and Germany before returning to America the next year as a virus that killed instead of sickened. The mutation occurred on an American troop ship. Viruses are by far the greatest danger to human society as we know it. World War 2 killed 50 million over 6 years....some estimates say the spanish flu killed 100 million in 9 months. We'll never know because so many died in China and India.
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This reminds me of people wanting to go outside and watch the tornado. It might not be in your path, but why be stupid?
If the spanish flu ever came back, he'd lose his license.
 
dinglefritz said:
It's going to be interesting to see what the transmission rates are in developed countries where it has landed. It's kind of a scary proposition when a planeload of people hit the ground and head out to their workplaces and families after riding in an enclosed tube with an infected person. Obviously there was a lot of that that happened before we were aware what was going on. The case in Boston is really scary. The key for me is awareness. Doing trace backs of anybody who might have come in contact with that infected passenger would be very very difficult I imagine. Guy coughs on a newspaper in the seat pocket of the plane or while waiting for his connector in a terminal. The next person comes along and picks the paper up while eating something. Boom. Somebody could come down with this thing who didn't have direct contact. Drs HAVE to keep this in their differential diagnosis for anybody with flu like symptoms who might have been in an airport in the previous 2-3 weeks.
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I have some doubts...a number of americans flew sick across the ocean for hours in a tube...came down ill almost immediately on arrival but we haven't seen an explosion of infection among those on the plane. It is hard to fathom but a 12 week period...nearly 30 million people are infected with influenza just in america...that number is probably 10x higher world wide. In america alone that is an infection rate of 2.5 million a week!!!!! In China you are seeing nearly 10 million infected with the flu every week during peak times. And of course during peak times you are looking at 6000 deaths a week in china and 1500 a week in america. My fear is that decision makers will noticed the impact on economy vs. the actually impact on social health and be reticent to put restrictions in on a very bad virus.
 
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Solana Beach Husker said:
I have some doubts...a number of americans flew sick across the ocean for hours in a tube...came down ill almost immediately on arrival but we haven't seen an explosion of infection among those on the plane. It is hard to fathom but a 12 week period...nearly 30 million people are infected with influenza just in america...that number is probably 10x higher world wide. In america alone that is an infection rate of 2.5 million a week!!!!! In China you are seeing nearly 10 million infected with the flu every week during peak times. And of course during peak times you are looking at 6000 deaths a week in china and 1500 a week in america. My fear is that decision makers will noticed the impact on economy vs. the actually impact on social health and be reticent to put restrictions in on a very bad virus.
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The problem is that as the people from Johns Hopkins wrote we don't know yet if we're at yet with this virus as far as its peak or contagiousness. Influenza outbreaks take a while to get going too. As far as the people who rode in airplanes with a known infected person go, we haven't reached the end of the incubation period for most if not all of them. I also wonder if some or all of the ones in quarantine aren't being given anti-viral drugs. As I've posted several times already, we'll know a lot more a few weeks from now. Specifically now I think in about 2 weeks we'll have a better handle on it. In general, Corona viruses in animals are extremely contagious.

The chair of public health medicine at the Hong Kong University is quoted as saying that he doesn't think this will reach it's peak until April or May. Also a New England Journal of Medicine article is quoted as saying that the average incubation seems to be about 5 days. That incubation period is way different than what anybody has said previously. I suspect that means that they are shedding virus on average at 5 days and not necessarily clinically ill then.
 
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Solana Beach Husker said:
Not sure the mutation rate of Co-V but it is never a good idea to let a virus work its way through the human population because evolution will hone it into a more efficient spreader and killer over time until the whole population has enough immunity to make it less harmful. This virus started as only communicable from animal to human, then it mutated so it can spread easily from human to human, and the next step is for it to become more violent or less violent. One single carrier could carry a mutation that allows it to kill 10% infected but still sicken 30% of the population. You are looking at 2 billion death toll in that case. The spanish flu started as a highly virulent but not deadly strain...in kansas, then spread to France and Germany before returning to America the next year as a virus that killed instead of sickened. The mutation occurred on an American troop ship. Viruses are by far the greatest danger to human society as we know it. World War 2 killed 50 million over 6 years....some estimates say the spanish flu killed 100 million in 9 months. We'll never know because so many died in China and India.
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Those with more knowledge on the subject please comment. Wouldn't it serve a virus better to keep its hosts alive. Killing them serves no purpose. As the purpose of a virus is to multiply and spread, no?. It can't do that if it kills the host.
 
husker2612 said:
Those with more knowledge on the subject please comment. Wouldn't it serve a virus better to keep its hosts alive. Killing them serves no purpose. As the purpose of a virus is to multiply and spread, no?. It can't do that if it kills the host.
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Viruses don't care whether their victims live or die. As long as they can reproduce and spread that is all that matters for their perpetuation.
 
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husker2612 said:
but the longer a host lives, the more it would be able to reproduce and infect others. Found this article, explains it pretty well.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/...ily-benefit-from-making-us-sick/#1c0bcc35471e
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There isn't a conscious effort of survival. Also, their life span, each one is tiny compared to overall infection and cure or death of person.
Us humans rarely think 10s of generations ahead,let alone a thing so potent,it finds ways to survive, like jumping from animal to human.
 
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Huskerfan2112 said:
I may have missed this, but why are we bringing people who have this virus to camp Ashland on Friday?
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Have it or maybe were exposed to it? There are hundreds of U.S. citizens who evacuated from China and have to be housed somewhere for their quarantine. The Pentagon got involved at the request of other agencies to house people until they are certain to be free of the virus. As long as proper precautions are taken, they shouldn't pose much of any risk to anybody else. The people we should be scared of are the people who got exposed unknowingly by travelers to or through airports.
 
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dinglefritz said:
Have it or maybe were exposed to it? There are hundreds of U.S. citizens who evacuated from China and have to be housed somewhere for their quarantine. The Pentagon got involved at the request of other agencies to house people until they are certain to be free of the virus. As long as proper precautions are taken, they shouldn't pose much of any risk to anybody else. The people we should be scared of are the people who got exposed unknowingly by travelers to or through airports.
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In your opinion do you think the worst is yet to come for the US. Seems like right now with 11 cases, it is very slow in developing. It has been almost 2 weeks now, I would think any that those people came in contact with should be showing symptoms. If nothing starts to take off in the next week or so, I would hope that means we have it under control for the most part.
 
husker2612 said:
In your opinion do you think the worst is yet to come for the US. Seems like right now with 11 cases, it is very slow in developing. It has been almost 2 weeks now, I would think any that those people came in contact with should be showing symptoms. If nothing starts to take off in the next week or so, I would hope that means we have it under control for the most part.
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I don't know. At some point with all of the international travel that happens it will get here. There will likely be some more inapparent carriers that enter the country and start spreading it around. Hopefully by then we'll have a vaccine for high risk citizens such as myself. If it doesn't amount to much here IMO it will be because of the extraordinary measures health agencies are taking to slow it's spread. It will be a miracle if the people already here who were infected haven't spread it more than we already know. Again, the director of public health at the Hong Kong University states that he believes the disease will not even peak in China for several months and it already has spread to dozens of other countries. Peak infections in those countries will lag China I would think by weeks if not months.
 
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husker2612 said:
In your opinion do you think the worst is yet to come for the US. Seems like right now with 11 cases, it is very slow in developing. It has been almost 2 weeks now, I would think any that those people came in contact with should be showing symptoms. If nothing starts to take off in the next week or so, I would hope that means we have it under control for the most part.
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Additionally I see the AP is reporting that South American countries haven't been doing any screening even of passengers arriving from China and neighboring countries. Given the porosity of our southern border and all of the legal human movement that happens from Central and South America, it's just a matter of time. Must get a vaccine.
 
husker2612 said:
I do find it funny that. Nothing gets cured, nothing gets cured, nothing gets cured. Years and year and years of research and development for others. All the sudden, BOOM new working vaccine in 6 months.
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You're talking apples and oranges. We've been making effective Corona virus vaccines for animals for decades. No doubt they did some work on one for SARS back when that occurred but the virus died out before they needed it and this new virus is fairly closely related. A Corona virus vaccine is just a different deal than trying to cure other disease. It is MUCH easier to make an effective vaccine for Corona virus than some other viral diseases just due to the properties of that family of viruses.
 
husker2612 said:
Those with more knowledge on the subject please comment. Wouldn't it serve a virus better to keep its hosts alive. Killing them serves no purpose. As the purpose of a virus is to multiply and spread, no?. It can't do that if it kills the host.
Click to expand...

Viruses spread by lysing cells, and manipulating the immune system and human body to spread the virus. Fever spreads through sweat, coughing, vomiting, and diarrhea through ejection. An extremely high virus load actually creates such an intense immune response that the immune system suffocates itself, bones feel like they are breaking, coughs are so intense that you break ribs, and the lungs so flooded that the patient turns blue. This is likely due to the effectiveness of the virus and the fact it replicates so quickly. Some high load patients in 1918 went from healthy to dead in a matter of minutes, on a crowded bus or a nurse in a hospital. A patient that hits this overload will collapse but will be filled to brim with viruses and those who come to their aid will almost surely be infected. Mild viruses are mild because the virus load is quite low, and the immune response is equally mild, therefore they can be contagious because the patient is active but the virus is lower in number. A flu pandemic will oscillate between mild, medium, and severe...in fact we are in the midst of a pandemic right now. H?N? variants making you and me sick now are related to the ones that killed in the past, they mild or medium intensity. They will mutate to violent, but the type that leads to millions dead is an extreme outlier...and being a quick killer can lead to burnout. Entire villages in aboriginal areas of Canada, Africa, India, China have 100% death rates. This is likely why they mutate back to mild. The pandemic viruses mutate in birds, pigs, and humans...they share genes in these three reservoirs. This is why vaccinating fowl, swine, and humans extends time between deadly pandemics. Even a less effective vaccine can be the difference between a mutation and no mutation as it just takes the right animal in the right place.
 
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dinglefritz said:
Have it or maybe were exposed to it? There are hundreds of U.S. citizens who evacuated from China and have to be housed somewhere for their quarantine. The Pentagon got involved at the request of other agencies to house people until they are certain to be free of the virus. As long as proper precautions are taken, they shouldn't pose much of any risk to anybody else. The people we should be scared of are the people who got exposed unknowingly by travelers to or through airports.
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Thanks. Wasnt sure what the rationale was or any other details. Good response.
 
husker2612 said:
I do find it funny that. Nothing gets cured, nothing gets cured, nothing gets cured. Years and year and years of research and development for others. All the sudden, BOOM new working vaccine in 6 months.
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Nearly all functional technology was created during war years...especially if defeat is a possibility. One should compare the cost and inefficiency of the F-35 with any of the dozens of aircraft designed during the cold war era. Humans are amazing if defeat is on the horizon. Otherwise they are greedy. Hell, we can't even rebuilt our initial saturn rockets because the technology is lost and we won't invest to regain it. Interwar periods are periods of technological degeneracy; viruses, and climate change will give us a way to improve tech without going into a world war.
 
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husker2612 said:
I do find it funny that. Nothing gets cured, nothing gets cured, nothing gets cured. Years and year and years of research and development for others. All the sudden, BOOM new working vaccine in 6 months.
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The pharmaceutical industry is one that actually needs government oversight. Pharmaceutical companies invent medicines and charges people exorbitant amounts for that medicine for the length of the patent (20 years). They have a right to do so, though. They spend the billions to develop the medicine.

If the government were to pay for the medical development (aka, the people the medicine is for), then maybe cures for things that have been researched for decades would finally be seen. Unfortunately, more money is made treating symptoms.

The reason you see outbreaks like coronavirus getting vaccine research immediately is because it is a pandemic and will drastically effect the economy if not corrected. It also happens to be heavily funded by governments.
 
So does anybody know if those getting here tomorrow are given masks and gloves in case they are not infected yet the guy next to them might be?

I listened to the press briefing today and they talked about there being children and this group of 11 all coming here on the same plane and bus. Seems wrong to just assume they are either all healthy or all infected.

Do they pass out masks for the little ones at least?
 
Sinomatic said:
So does anybody know if those getting here tomorrow are given masks and gloves in case they are not infected yet the guy next to them might be?

I listened to the press briefing today and they talked about there being children and this group of 11 all coming here on the same plane and bus. Seems wrong to just assume they are either all healthy or all infected.

Do they pass out masks for the little ones at least?
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My thoughts exactly for the people quarantined on cruise ships. IMO that is just insane. The ventilation systems are horrible on those things and the food all has to come from a central kitchen. I suspect that the people flying in to Omaha will have plenty of precautions including masks and gallons of Purell. They have to just be relieved to get the hell out of China to a place with first class medical care.
 
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SkerinDallas said:
The pharmaceutical industry is one that actually needs government oversight. Pharmaceutical companies invent medicines and charges people exorbitant amounts for that medicine for the length of the patent (20 years). They have a right to do so, though. They spend the billions to develop the medicine.

If the government were to pay for the medical development (aka, the people the medicine is for), then maybe cures for things that have been researched for decades would finally be seen. Unfortunately, more money is made treating symptoms.

The reason you see outbreaks like coronavirus getting vaccine research immediately is because it is a pandemic and will drastically effect the economy if not corrected. It also happens to be heavily funded by governments.
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No doubt pharmaceutical companies need oversight, but without profit motives drugs don't get developed. Government grants alone for research in to new drugs can't do what corporate profits do. The last thing we need is the government deciding winners and losers in the drug game. The flip side of that is that we need to make sure that the government encourages R and D into drugs for rare conditions as well. It's a balancing act.
 
death total from "worldometer" stands at 638. 31500+ known cases at least BUT of those surviving so far the number in "critical condition" has risen to 15% of that number. I saw a story somewhere yesterday that alleged that China is vastly under-reporting the number of deaths. I'm assuming they would do that to "safe face". Now that initial surge is counted, the increase in cases seems to be continuing to grow by about 14-17% per day.

Hopefully the "media frenzy":rolleyes: alerted people to the dangers and the spread slows. I am just flabergasted by the people I've seen who are still taking planned cruises to Vietnam etc. Why take the chance of getting stuck on a boat for 3 weeks then with each new case on board, the "cruise" gets extended by another 2-3 weeks.
 
SkerinDallas said:
The pharmaceutical industry is one that actually needs government oversight. Pharmaceutical companies invent medicines and charges people exorbitant amounts for that medicine for the length of the patent (20 years). They have a right to do so, though. They spend the billions to develop the medicine.

If the government were to pay for the medical development (aka, the people the medicine is for), then maybe cures for things that have been researched for decades would finally be seen. Unfortunately, more money is made treating symptoms.

The reason you see outbreaks like coronavirus getting vaccine research immediately is because it is a pandemic and will drastically effect the economy if not corrected. It also happens to be heavily funded by governments.
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Yea, inventing a cure wouldnt pay?
Is there just one disease that needs be cured?
Isn't this corona virus, several tick borne diseases, seeka sp? Virus etc etc all new?
Looks to me, theres plenty of money to go around on cures alone?
Plus, a cure could be very expensive, but one tome solution.

Sounds like a perfect solution for and in a free market at the private level.
 
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dinglefritz said:
My thoughts exactly for the people quarantined on cruise ships. IMO that is just insane. The ventilation systems are horrible on those things and the food all has to come from a central kitchen. I suspect that the people flying in to Omaha will have plenty of precautions including masks and gallons of Purell. They have to just be relieved to get the hell out of China to a place with first class medical care.
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Purell ???


Ummmmmmm....

https://www.healthcarepackaging.com...a-cracks-down-on-purell-hand-sanitizer-claims
 
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Spectrumalaska said:
Don't argue with dingle, he has a doctorate in something, that or he stays in Holiday Inns most nights.
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source.gif
 
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I plan on making some money out this human tragedy, but I'll need to estimate how long China economic production is down. Guessing mid April could be the peak in cases.
 
husker2612 said:
That is one thing I never understood, when people purposely go onto a thread to just say how bad it is or how they don't care. Much easier to just move on to another topic that interest them.
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It's called nothing to add, nothing to do. No biggie as long as a person doesn't become too derogatory or adamant. When they start doing that, they're just liars.
 
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