So, I have been really looking forward to this game for a while. I think any arrogance or expectations for a win - on either side, are misplaced. I think both this year and next year are going to be very good games from a fan perspective. For all of the vitriol on this board about Riley, he did recruit very well, with classes over the last five years ranking 32, 31, 24, 20, and 21 respectively. If I am being honest, CU can't touch this type of track record, and we are only recently (as in 2017) back in the 30's But, as many have noted he (Riley) is a PAC-12 coach, and he recruited PAC-12 type players. It is weird. It is almost as though the NU AD was thinking that drawing from a different pool of talent might give NU an advantage in the B1G. But that conference is a smash-mouth conference, and trying to bring a speed/finesse passing game to that conference is kind of like bringing a knife to a gunfight imo. There is also the legitimate question about player development, and I don't think Mike Riley did a very good job, particularly on defense. Conversely, Mike Macintyre has shown that he can develop underrated players, particularly DB's. In looking at NU on defense last year, in spite of all of the talent, the number of 50+ point games NU allowed was surprising. I mean you gave up 54 points to Minnesota, which is
. This speaks to lack of player development.
Still, in terms of W/L record CU fans are not in a position to brag either. Five wins in only one win better than four after all. CU did put up great numbers against CSU, but then CSU blows, and might be one of the worst defenses in D1 football. So - again - if I am being honest, we really don't know what we have. What we do know is that Macintyre does know DB's, and pass defense, and CU's DB's are very solid across the board. No back-end of a defense is any good if you can't get a pass rush going, and CU seems to have some decent players in the front seven who can get a pass rush on. If I had to guess, Martinez will be lucky to break 200 yards passing. The other side of the coin is CU's rush defense, and CU has had trouble with running QB's. If I had to guess, NU runs read option all day long, with a few play action passes to keep the defense honest. Particularly considering the forecast calls for rain, I am thinking the teams that wins runs the ball the best. With NU's history of great o-lines, it is going to be a tall task for CU to stop the NU ground game. The wild card is Sophomore ILB Nate Landman, who had 16 tackles in his debut last week. Moving senior Drew Lewis to OLB to get Landman on the field will also pay dividends for CU in pass rush. In any event, CU's defense is better than many here think.
On offense CU is loaded at the skill positions, but our offensive line has been a consistent weakness. At WR CU has a legit six man rotation, with Soph Laviska Shenault leading the way last week along with KD nixon. I expect Shenault to get doubled-up all day in coverage, which leaves everyone else including Nixon and Juwann Winfree in one-on-one coverage. So, pick your poison. The addition of Kurt Roper as QB coach has changed the way Montez plays, and as a RS- Junior Montez has a lot of experience, and he can run. CU clearly has an advantage at the QB position all things being equal. At running back, while we lost Philip Lindsay, we gained Travon McMillian as a grad Transfer from Virginia Tech, who is a legit talent. Behind him CU has a mish mash of decent, but not exceptional players who can get yards if CU's line can open holes. However, CU's o-line has not been good in past years, and CU's success rests on the ability of our o-line to block your front seven. CU's o-line is improving - they seem to be much better at pass blocking, but just how much better they are remains to be seen. A rainy game day favors NU's offense over CU I think.
The last, but possibly the most important point is years in the respective system. I have no doubt that Scott Frost will have NU playing as a top ten team and for B1G conference championships in three to four years, maybe sooner. However, CU is game 1, in a new system with new coaches, AND you are starting a true freshman QB, who has never taken a live D1 snap. The advantages these facts create are something NU fans here are underestimating. This coupled with not having a game last week, is a huge issue for Nebraska. In terms of outcome, I think if it is dry then CU puts up 30 to 40 points on the black shirts, and the question then becomes: Can Martinez and company keep up - I don't think they can, not in this context. If the day is wet and rainy then the game becomes much more of a push, with NU having an advantage because of your o-line and the effectiveness of the read-option. Sunny day score: CU 38 - NU 24, Rainy day score: Pick-em, winner 24, loser 21.
