I've been negative on Matt Rhule so I decided to take a dive on his 2019 team to have a more informed opinion.
Stephen F. Austin: 56-17
Good, clean win over an FCS program. That's how a P5 team should perform against FCS. SFA would finish the season 3-9
UTSA: 63-14
Another dominant win. UTSA would finish the year 4-8
@Rice: 21-13
This one is a little troubling. Rice shutout Baylor in the 2nd half en route to nearly completing a comeback. This Rice team would finish the season 3-9.
Iowa State: 23-21
Baylor jumped out to a 20-0 lead, then Iowa State scored 21 unanswered in the 4th quarter. Baylor escapes with a FG on their final drive. Iowa State would finish the season 7-6
@Kansas State: 31-12
Solid win where Baylor played all 4 quarters. Kansas State would finish 8-5 under first year coach Chris Klieman.
Texas Tech: 33-30
Another nailbiter in a game where Baylor was favored by 10.5. Texas Tech would finish 4-8 under first year coach Matt Wells.
@Oklahoma State: 45-27
This may be Baylor's best win of the season. OkSt favored by 6, Baylor takes the lead early in the 4th and closes the game out strong. Oklahoma State would finish 7-6 this season.
West Virginia: 17-14
Ugly win in a game where Baylor was favored by 17.5. Baylor is outscored in the second half, but a 4th quarter FG wins the game. West Virginia would finish 5-7 under first year coach Neal Brown.
@TCU: 29-23
Another ugly win against an opponent Baylor was favored against. Games goes into 3OT's after the 4th quarter has them tied at 9. TCU would finish the season 5-7
Oklahoma: 31-34
First loss of the year, to be expected as OU was favored by 10.5. Baylor led the game 28-3 at one point, but a 2nd half collapse in which they were shutout leads to Oklahoma leaving Waco with a win. OU would finish the year 12-2
Texas: 24-10
Baylor rebounds after the heartbreaking loss to OU. Score is deceptive as Texas scored their only TD with 1 second remaining, having never led at any point in the game. Texas would finish the year 8-5.
@Kansas: 61-6
Total domination. Kansas would finish 3-9 under first year coach Les Miles.
Oklahoma: 23-30
Baylor goes into half with the lead once again, but a weaker second half allows OU to tie the game before winning in OT.
Georgia: 26-14
Probably the best team Rhule had ever faced. Despite being shutout in the first half, Baylor manages to stay competitive and keep the game from getting ugly.
notes:
- Baylor's wins would come against opponents with a combined record of 57-79 (0.419). To contextualize, in 2021 the Big 10 West, excluding Nebraska, had a combined record of 54-32 (0.628)
- Baylor was outscored in the second half in 5 of their games
In conclusion, I believe Matt Rhule to be a fine head coach. It is admittedly concerning that his teams seem to struggle against Rice and very weak Texas Tech & TCU teams. The biggest concern is the pattern of poor 2nd half performances when they aren't playing teams like Kansas and Stephen F. Austin. Were Rhule to be head coach at Nebraska, I would envision Pelini-like success, with fewer embarrassing losses. I would however hold little hope that he'd be able to win the conference, but I believe we would probably regain control of the Iowa rivalry and no longer be a doormat for Wisconsin.