I am a passionate College Football Fan ...
objective.
Let's talk Boise. Let's talk Nebraska. Let's talk Florida. Let's talk Iowa State (UCF nailed it on Purdy when recruiting, but he picked Iowa State for playing time, and good for him too).
I've been an UCF fan since Division II, no not I-AA (FCS), Division II. UCF is the only FBS program to ever play all four (4) levels ... III, II, I-AA (FCS) and I-A (FBS).
But that all aside ...
Appreciate it.
Appreciate that as well.
And that's fine. It's up to people to care about stories.
I know Nebraska gets to be the butt of jokes from other fans than just UCF as well, programs that never remotely accomplished what Nebraska has. I don't know what it feels like to be there -- although I'm starting to understand more (i.e., my Florida friends are getting close to being there too these days**) -- because UCF is just building its program.
Or should I say, UCF is starting to finally have some sort of 'sustained success.' The biggest knock on UCF is that it never had a Boise-like string of winning seasons. I even bring this up here ...
Catching Up to Boise: In-Conference Performance ...
Even if UCF now has more P5 wins than Boise this century, and UCF's NY bowl wins to date, have been far more impressive, than Boise's too. Many objective Boise fans admit this, but also point out UCF has far more reasons to be successful, and that makes Boise's results far greater of a feat in the same regard.
But without the continual, winning seasons, people can point to 2015 ... even if, say, Florida's record is worse than UCF's this decade. Florida had a lot of crap years this decade, with 2013 being their lowest point. They couldn't even beat FCS competition that year.
Well, it happened last year for us, constantly, and only got worse. But yes, 2 wrongs don't make a right.
Oh, it's clearly a G5 v. P5 fight ... although, I'm in the heart of SEC country, Birmingham, AL. I worked many years at a major SEC sponsor.
There are a lot of SEC fans saying, to other conferences, "UCF wouldn't go undefeated in the SEC ... but Big XII? PAC-12? Even the ACC this year? Maybe, sans maybe against all but Clemson and Oklahoma ... maybe just Clemson.
Last year? Or 2013 for that matter (v. 3 AP Top 10 teams, 2x wins, and 1 loss by only 3 points against the final AP #4)? Sure, not one season.
But now? Well, if you know statistics, it was already only a 48% chance that Alabama would go undefeated with UCF's schedule in 2017. That's just basic statistics. Would they? Probably.
But now, 2017 + 2018? That is actually record setting. It is kinda a
'big deal.' And while people will argue if it's the same string as Nebraska's in the '90s, that really is whether or not you believe the Big XII was better than the Big East of 2005+.
Most will say yes. But even some Gator fans -- and I kid you not, I had a Gator fan say this in '96 -- "Nebraska plays in a conference that would struggle with UCF." Now he was being facetious, but it didn't help when UCF put a scare int Nebraska in '97. That that, and I admit rather weak, argument aside ...
The AAC is better than the Big East it replaced (technically, it's the same conference, just sold the name to the basketball schools, who took the basketball records, football records remain with the AAC). Under the old BCS system, the AAC re-qualifies as an AQ conference.
Is the AAC the Big 10? SEC? No. No argument. But at some point, this "G5" moniker is getting old. The MWC also don't like it either.
Now Houston and Memphis let the AAC down so far in the bowls, but we weren't surprised. Houston's decimated by injuries, and Memphis is nothing on offense without their top 10 Heisman voting RB, and their entire defensive front was out against Wake Forest (who still struggled to edge out Memphis).
The ACC really sucks this year, like the PAC-12 last year, and even the Big XII in many eyes. Several computers had UCF favored on a neutral field. The Big XII commissioner said TCU would beat UCF 9 times out of 10, and the Vegas line said UCF wins 7 out of 10,some computers even had 8+ out of 10.
Now the AAC isn't as good as last year.
But this "Power 5" moniker still really doesn't apply.
It's really Power 3 most years, sometimes only Power 2.
Now hold on. I'll meet you half-way there.
Notre Dame, or even Nebraska, have a huge TV following. The whole
"Children of the Poor" argument does apply to many G5s. So let's talk about the two (2) issues ...
1. Access
2. Money
First off, I think we all agree that if you play at the FBS level, there should be some sort of "Access," like there is in basketball. Football is the only NCAA sport where the NCAA does
not crown a champion, and leaves it to other parties.
Second off, there is the reality of money. Programs don't want to be sharing money with bottom feeders who aren't producing the TV ratings and other aspects. Temple got booted out of the Big East for this, among other things. There are other examples too.
But ... that's where the problem with UCF comes in ...
both.
First off, access. Last year was the
'perfect storm.' It wasn't a shocker that UCF declared a NC, unlike in 2014, and unlike in 2019 (should it win the Fiesta). And the Colley-Matrix was just the silver lining, something even the PAC-12 recognizes (yes,
Power 5 hypocrisy in action), let alone UCF's claim to a (not "the") NC is better than most of the 6 of Alabama's non-consensus NCs (it only has 11, not 17).
This year, it's even worse as an 8-team playoff would have solved everything. Georgia is in, the Big 10 and PAC-12 champions are in too. Notre Dame is in. And the top G5 champion is in. That's why everyone is looking at it.
But secondly, money. The NY Times, ESPN and US Today all did the market surveys in 2009, and UCF stood out among G5s. By the early 2010s, UCF overtook Miami as the #3 fanbase in Florida (Miami Athletics even, publicly admitted, by 2015). And that's not just of people saying UCF is their 'second team' (plenty of FSU and Miami fans say that) but as their #1 team. It's
why ESPN forced the Big East to take UCF, as part of the contract re-negotiations. Pitt's AD listed everything, without naming names, on the 'control' aspect, and WVU listed the same.
But in 2013, UCF had the TV ratings of the Big XII median, and higher than the PAC-12 median.
By 2017, UCF became a top draw for even a Power team. And in 2018, UCF would only be behind Oklahoma and Texas. In the state of Florida, it's getting really, really weird, as Florida is having attendance issues, with the continued, losing program. The Gators try to deflect realities, but their recruiting is outside the top 15 yet again (Miami's has dropped to outside the top 30 or 40, depending on which site one uses).
That has a lot to do with being rated lower than UCF most years than not, this decade.
FSU finally slipped up too. But they still have more NY bowl wins, and an actual, BCS NC, than UCF ... although UCF could tie the NY bowl win number with a win over LSU -- putting everything else aside.
Now factor in this reality ...
In 20 years, UCF will have the largest, living alumni base in the US ... more than any other school ... with a football program. UCF didn't start graduating kids until the mid '70s, so its boosters are young. But it's first, major donors are now just rolling in, along with an increasing number of AP and other media journalists.
UCF will be in a "Power" conference. It's just a matter of when, and how. Right now, that's ESPN's control. It's really it. Is it in 20 years? 5 years? Next year?
E.g., Does ESPN pay the Big XII to take UCF, and pay the Big XII for an extra team, because it's cheaper than pushing the AAC's per school payout to >>$10M/year to match actual TV ratings
in 2019 February (yes, next February), after which
ESPN's "First Right" expires?
Does ESPN pay UCF to go independent? No, that won't happen. But it would take an ESPN to get UCF to go independent for scheduling, because that's what it takes to schedule. UCF isn't a Notre Dame, and even BYU is running into issues, even though they have an older, established alumni base.
Nah, UCF will be "swept-aside."
During halftime, when UCF was leading Auburn, ESPN talked 0 about the game -- the actual, halftime show of the freak'n game!
After UCF won the Peach bowl, ESPN talked 0 about it then too, right on the channel.
No, UCF is being talked about because, on January 2nd ...
1) The CFP committee's head said UCF wouldn't have made an 8 team playoff, and ...
2) The Big XII commissioner said UCF would would lose 9 out of 10 times to TCU
After this happened, irrespective of the social media used after the game, irrespective of what Danny White said on an uploaded Twitter video short ... Dr. Hitt, one of the most powerful men in all of college academics, gave the entire "entitled" world a huge middle finger.
He said, "Danny, do it."
It was no longer an after-game punchline, or UCF social media poking fun at the playoffs. The narrative needed to change.
That's why UCF is being talked about. A quarter million (and growing) dollars in free, pure, hatred-driven advertising. And you know who tells UCF fans the most?
As the Miami Herald and others have pointed out, UCF is as hated now, as Miami was in the early '80s. Quite ironic since the State University System of Florida had talked about shutting down UCF football around 2000, much like Miami, who is actually private, had considered shutting down their program in the '70s as well.
Did people 'take notice' when UCF never trailed Baylor?
Did people 'take notice' when UCF lead Auburn for all but 10 minutes?
Nope. Nope.
The AAC can have more AP Top 25 teams at the end of a season than a Power conference, a final AP Top 10 team when a Power conference doesn't, and that's
happened for several of the first 5 years of the AAC's existence! Doesn't matter.
That was that. It wasn't on-the-field performance. It was being a bastard program that "didn't know it's place." That's just reality.
Even SDSU's AD admits this.
Even Boise State's HC admitted they've gotten no where, and UCF is right.
The only G5 AD that has disagreed is NIU's, and have you seen NIU's bowl record against major teams? (they get blown out ... every time!)
But Gonzaga had a chance.
That's NCAA basketball ... with an actual tourney of champions + at-large.
UCF doesn't.
No G5 does.
The CFP is a joke.
And even an 8-team
not based on 6 champions + 2 at-large won't work.
When they said,
"Go undefeated again, we'll talk." They said that because no G5 had back-to-back undefeated seasons before ... until now.
UCF went undefeated. Now the
'goal posts' moved again.
If UCF loses to LSU, there will be lots of people like yourself, saying,
"Oh, you lost when it mattered." And if UCF wins, it will be more people like yourself,
"Oh, LSU was a 4 loss SEC team, and they were even #11 (and end up #15+ or so" along with
"LSU was down half of their defense."
The BCS computers are gone. They pegged UCF as a top 3 team last year. Last year was the best G5 setup ever since 2008 Utah ... except if 2013 UCF would have beaten a yet 3rd AP Top 10 team, instead of losing by 3 points.
But that's why they play the games. And UCF is building more and more of a fanbase ... outside of Florida, let alone in it. Regardless of whether they win or lose.
UCF fans are used to it. All of us have been on this ride this decade, some of us since the '80s too. That's why I never get tired of watching videos like this ...
Mark May is going for 0 for 3.
Lou Holtz is going for 3 for 3.
Yes, they still do videos together on picks.