The 1% blunder: How a simple but fatal math mistake by US Covid-19 experts caused the world to panic

[GBRforLife1]

thats a large exaggeration. it will never be 90% no matter who is in charge

Seriously? One candidate is pushing tax cuts and one is pushing tax hikes.

And there are others in the tax hike side who don't believe billionaires should exist. Think about that for a minute. There are people in the govt trying to decide how much of your money is a valid amount for you to get to keep.

 

[GBRforLife1]

Wonder if he’s asked his fallen comrade Hillary about that “vast right wing conspiracy” lately? And see the three middle letters in his handle, pretty much sums up his life.

 

[leodisflowers]

Both “sides” at various points this year have had protests and have participated in riots, much as I don’t think it’s fair to label all cops bad based on the actions of a few, it’s also not fair to label a whole group based on the actions of a small subset of them.

You may be correct, but when was the right ever rioting? I remember protests at state capitol buildings in order to open the states up from lock down, but never any riots. I know the left was super pissed that they were bringing guns to these things, but don't ever recall a riot happening. I could be wrong, but it seems like most of the rioting and burning of the cities are not from right-wing groups....

Also, I find it comical that now when the left starts doing things we claim that "well both sides are doing it..." Back during Charlottesville when Trump said those things he was killed for it (which he should have been). I'm no Trump fan, but funny how the narrative changes.

At the end of the day, the riots need to be called out for what they are. If you start rioting, looting and going nuts you are a domestic terrorist and should be treated like one.

 

[jmliehr]

When 40 million people were out of work, racking up debt just to live, burning through savings, losing everything they have and you claim lives aren't ruined there isn't much to discuss or debate.

If you want to debate a topic try not being smug and disingenuous.

Here's a topic. You were overwhelmingly for staying home until there is a vaccine. That policy idea ruined people's lives and businesses. You're fine with suicides and overdoses rising due to these policy decisions. So you don't really care about lives, you care about control.

If you were able to limit virus deaths, but increase deaths in other areas and destroy people financially and made their lives miserable that's not much of a solution. And it's a significant point many here have made. The solution has been worse than the problem.

I made the same observation and Dinglefritz replied that anyone who wants a job can have a job. You point to some obscure singular solution as “the problem” when there has been no singular solution. There has been no federal lockdown, no federal masking mandate.

Have there been overreaching impacts? Yes, but as it’s easy for me to dismiss the impact since I haven’t felt the direct impact of the financial issues, it’s just as easy for you to use macro level economics to dismiss the micro level impact the virus has on families and communities.

I’m not sure where you get that I am “hiding”, I have a kid in school, playing sports across the region and went to a movie theater just last night. I think there’s a balance to be struck and as long as cases are manageable and hospitals are coping, that balance is about right.

At the same time I have a family friend in week 5 in the hospital, one of my employees watching a family member fight the virus from a nursing home, not being able to have seen him for 6 months. I lived under a shelter in place order and currently am living under a mask mandate, I stood/sat outside for 2+ hours wearing a mask this weekend and even more than that in past weekends. Our spread locally has declined since the masking ordinance took effect, does it stop all cases? No, but it stops some, and it doesn’t take much to get the r value under 1 to keep things somewhat normal.

 

[GammaxuvirHusker]

Also, I find it comical that now when the left starts doing things we claim that "well both sides are doing it..." Back during Charlottesville when Trump said those things he was killed for it (which he should have been). I'm no Trump fan, but funny how the narrative changes.

You don't have to be a Trump fan to call out the many lies the media spreads about him.
https://www.justfactsdaily.com/media-and-politicians-twist-trumps-words-about-charlottesville/

 

[jlb321]

When 40 million people were out of work, racking up debt just to live, burning through savings, losing everything they have and you claim lives aren't ruined there isn't much to discuss or debate.

If you want to debate a topic try not being smug and disingenuous.

Here's a topic. You were overwhelmingly for staying home until there is a vaccine. That policy idea ruined people's lives and businesses. You're fine with suicides and overdoses rising due to these policy decisions. So you don't really care about lives, you care about control.

If you were able to limit virus deaths, but increase deaths in other areas and destroy people financially and made their lives miserable that's not much of a solution. And it's a significant point many here have made. The solution has been worse than the problem.

one side of the political spectrum controls 2/3's of the elected entities of the federal government and controls an ideological majority on the highest court in the land

they have more state governors and more states with complete control of the state legislature (governor and both state house and congress all of the same party affiliation)

if they are armed with the truth and the belief that the economy, small businesses. jobs, schools/universities, athletic programs all stand to do more favorably in their version - given this majority it should be an easy sell

 

[starbrown]

one side of the political spectrum controls 2/3's of the elected entities of the federal government and controls an ideological majority on the highest court in the land

they have more state governors and more states with complete control of the state legislature (governor and both state house and congress all of the same party affiliation)

if they are armed with the truth and the belief that the economy, small businesses. jobs, schools/universities, athletic programs all stand to do more favorably in their version - it is beyond me how they are unable to lead given this majority

Your side owns the culture. And my side has too many feckless Romney-wannabes. But I do like the fact your side blames EVERYTHING on the right. Including the violence. The best thing DJT has done is get your side to come out and admit the 2 things they despise the most:
1) The USA
2) The rule-of-law

"by any means necessary" ---- the mantra of totalitarians for over 2000 years.

 

[Crazyhole]

one side of the political spectrum controls 2/3's of the elected entities of the federal government and controls an ideological majority on the highest court in the land

they have more state governors and more states with complete control of the state legislature (governor and both state house and congress all of the same party affiliation)

if they are armed with the truth and the belief that the economy, small businesses. jobs, schools/universities, athletic programs all stand to do more favorably in their version - given this majority it should be an easy sell

Compare and contrast the states that have had less economic and medical damage with the party in power in those states. You can't look at things as a whole when you're talking about a country that has 340 million people that are split into 50 segments that act independently in large part.

 

[jlb321]

Your side owns the culture. And my side has too many feckless Romney-wannabes. But I do like the fact your side blames EVERYTHING on the right. Including the violence. The best thing DJT has done is get your side to come out and admit the 2 things they despise the most:
1) The USA
2) The rule-of-law

"by any means necessary" ---- the mantra of totalitarians for over 2000 years.

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man ... if you are armed with the truth, the money (economy) and a majority and can't get your message to resonate that is by very definition ineffective leadership

 

[starbrown]

man ... if you are armed with the truth, the money (economy) and a majority and can't get your message to resonate that is by very definition ineffective leadership

Wait, so you're saying my side is gonna lose in November? How about a friendly wager?

 

[jlb321]

Compare and contrast the states that have had less economic and medical damage with the party in power in those states. You can't look at things as a whole when you're talking about a country that has 340 million people that are split into 50 segments that act independently in large part.

yes .. this is what happens when you shrink during a national emergency and hand things over to the states and fail to lead

 

[B1G RED RULES]

Yes, I’m fact I posted months ago that numbers from the Lombardy region of Italy along with NYC heavily skewed data and led to some bad decisions for rural areas as a result.

Fair enough. I smile when people scream that Trump has blood on his hands and in the same breath tout Cuomo as a great leader.

 

[GammaxuvirHusker]

yes .. this is what happens when you shrink during a national emergency and hand things over to the states and fail to lead

1- See federalism
2- a fake national emergency, at best.
3- Catch 22. The President is a "fascist wanna be dictator" if he tries to take over control from the States, but if he lets them make their own decisions, he's "failing to lead".

Nice scheme y'all have going there.

 

[Crazyhole]

yes .. this is what happens when you shrink during a national emergency and hand things over to the states and fail to lead

You were talking about the political spectrum. There does seem to be a correlation, just not the one you think exists.

 

[GammaxuvirHusker]

Fair enough. I smile when people scream that Trump has blood on his hands and in the same breath tout Cuomo as a great leader.

It is really a testament to just how much influence and power the media still has to this day when you see Cuomo's approval rating go up despite how miserably he failed and you see Desantis' approval rating go down despite how well Florida has done.

 

[jlb321]

2- a fake national emergency, at best.
.

“ THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 201 and 301 of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) and consistent with section 1135 of the Social Security Act (SSA), as amended (42 U.S.C. 1320b-5), do hereby find and proclaim that the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States constitutes a national emergency, beginning March 1, 2020. “

 

[GBRforLife1]

You may be correct, but when was the right ever rioting? I remember protests at state capitol buildings in order to open the states up from lock down, but never any riots. I know the left was super pissed that they were bringing guns to these things, but don't ever recall a riot happening. I could be wrong, but it seems like most of the rioting and burning of the cities are not from right-wing groups....

Also, I find it comical that now when the left starts doing things we claim that "well both sides are doing it..." Back during Charlottesville when Trump said those things he was killed for it (which he should have been). I'm no Trump fan, but funny how the narrative changes.

At the end of the day, the riots need to be called out for what they are. If you start rioting, looting and going nuts you are a domestic terrorist and should be treated like one.

Just to correct the record here is Trump's thoughts about Charlottesville when he condems neo-nazis and white nationalists.



And here are his thoughts on the KKK and others

 

[starbrown]

“ THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 201 and 301 of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) and consistent with section 1135 of the Social Security Act (SSA), as amended (42 U.S.C. 1320b-5), do hereby find and proclaim that the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States constitutes a national emergency, beginning March 1, 2020. “

Yep, good people can be manipulated by the deep state. It took 240 years to create a 15000 ft deep swamp, it's gonna take more than 4 years to drain it.

 

[Crazyhole]

“ THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 201 and 301 of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) and consistent with section 1135 of the Social Security Act (SSA), as amended (42 U.S.C. 1320b-5), do hereby find and proclaim that the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States constitutes a national emergency, beginning March 1, 2020. “

He should have declared it a world emergency. Very irresponsible and a total failure of leadership.

 

[GBRforLife1]

one side of the political spectrum controls 2/3's of the elected entities of the federal government and controls an ideological majority on the highest court in the land

they have more state governors and more states with complete control of the state legislature (governor and both state house and congress all of the same party affiliation)

if they are armed with the truth and the belief that the economy, small businesses. jobs, schools/universities, athletic programs all stand to do more favorably in their version - given this majority it should be an easy sell

You bring up a significant problem. It's called the swamp. Unelected bureaucrats who try to impede or obstruct elected officials. I hope they get what they deserve.

 

[TruHusker]

the problem is you CANNOT say the drug is why the patient got better. the patient may have got better without the drug.
you will never know.
thats why randomized prospective double blind placebo controlled trials are mandatory for concluding efficacy of treatments.
sometimes a medicine does work in a small number of patients but not very well or not very frequently. with side effects as part of the decision that medicine would be relegated to the back of the line. my neighbors dad also got better with Hydroxy. i'm glad he did. but we will never know if he just got better on his own or if it was actually the medicine. when they attempted to prove that the drug works more often than a placebo it didn't come out positive. as long as it doesn't cause a lot of side effects they can use it because it won't hurt anybody. but if patients get better it isnt necessarily the drug. MOST patients get better. that makes them just like the majority of patients who didn't take the drug

I heard a doctor speak to this call for double blind studies. He said we have rarely if ever done that. When a drug is approved it is for a specific problem. Over time doctors find the drug is helpful in other areas and it gains traction and acceptance for use. They don't do double blind studies on EVERY use of every drug made. For one thing, covid isn't going to be around forever, how are you going to do studies? Follow the science, don't invent it.

 

[Crazyhole]

Just to correct the record here is Trump's thoughts about Charlottesville when he condems neo-nazis and white nationalists.

View embedded media

And here are his thoughts on the KKK and others

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What? He said all of us are created equal. The actual quote is "all women and men are created equal by the, oh you know the thing".

Trump fail #14,102

 

[mwulf]

Just to correct the record here is Trump's thoughts about Charlottesville when he condems neo-nazis and white nationalists.

View embedded media

And here are his thoughts on the KKK and others

View embedded media

I wish he would denounce the Qanon nuts. That batch of dipshits is growing and spreading at an alarming rate

 

[starbrown]

I wish he would denounce the Qanon nuts. That batch of dipshits is growing and spreading at an alarming rate

They don't hold the reigns of power and never will. My fear surrounds those willing to burn down cities and execute fraud on our courts.

 

[GBRforLife1]

I made the same observation and Dinglefritz replied that anyone who wants a job can have a job. You point to some obscure singular solution as “the problem” when there has been no singular solution. There has been no federal lockdown, no federal masking mandate.

Technically correct, but disingenuous. There has been guidance from the CDC, a federal organization, that has lead to local stupidity. Such as wearing masks outside for hours.

Have there been overreaching impacts? Yes, but as it’s easy for me to dismiss the impact since I haven’t felt the direct impact of the financial issues, it’s just as easy for you to use macro level economics to dismiss the micro level impact the virus has on families and communities.

More disingenuous garbage. Viruses impact families every single year. We don't financially ruin 15% of the population while the work from home crowd such as yourself is uninvested in the outcomes.

I’m not sure where you get that I am “hiding”, I have a kid in school, playing sports across the region and went to a movie theater just last night. I think there’s a balance to be struck and as long as cases are manageable and hospitals are coping, that balance is about right.

Idk either. Maybe it your constant posts about staying home or how your kid wouldn't be going to play sports. Seems like a lot has changed for you. Congrats.

At the same time I have a family friend in week 5 in the hospital, one of my employees watching a family member fight the virus from a nursing home, not being able to have seen him for 6 months. I lived under a shelter in place order and currently am living under a mask mandate, I stood/sat outside for 2+ hours wearing a mask this weekend and even more than that in past weekends. Our spread locally has declined since the masking ordinance took effect, does it stop all cases? No, but it stops some, and it doesn’t take much to get the r value under 1 to keep things somewhat normal.

I don't know how you measure the spread locally, but positive tests have been dropping in Missouri since mid July and the number of tests being done has dropped off as well suggesting there is less demand for testing ie. less sick people.

 

[GBRforLife1]

I wish he would denounce the Qanon nuts. That batch of dipshits is growing and spreading at an alarming rate

No matter what he does it'll never be enough for you. We've already had that discussion.

 

[huskerfan66]

And what does the typical “Republican“ do? I didn’t quote you did I? Crazy idea, let’s just be human and discuss things?

Discuss the situation. Inform the other person of the facts and explain where we have difference of point of view and why they're wrong. After that, agree to disagree and move on. No yelling, screaming, crying or rioting.

 

[mwulf]

No matter what he does it'll never be enough for you. We've already had that discussion.

Baby steps...cant build a house without a foundation

 

[B1G RED RULES]

I wish he would denounce the Qanon nuts. That batch of dipshits is growing and spreading at an alarming rate

What is Qanon?

 

[mwulf]

What is Qanon?

If you dont know you are better off not knowing.


They are a batch of conspiracy theory wingnuts

 

[OzzyLvr]

im glad your brother in law got better - every randomized control trial to date (there have been 8) studying various phases of the disease says that HCQ had nothing to do with it

hopefully someone will show in a RCT a subset of patients that do benefit so therapy can be targeted

anecdotes aren’t evidence

Anecdotes ARE evidence. If not, why is it still being prescribed? If it has no effect, why do they still prescribe it? Are all of these doctors and hospitals practicing bad medicine? Something doesn’t make sense.

 

[jmliehr]

I don't know how you measure the spread locally, but positive tests have been dropping in Missouri since mid July and the number of tests being done has dropped off as well suggesting there is less demand for testing ie. less sick people.

Well, the White House task force has called Missouri a Red Zone because of case rate and is recommending a statewide masking ordinance along with curfews on bars.

My area has gone from 1500 to 4200 confirmed cases in 30 days, which is heavily attributed to the return of college students which last week had almost 50% of the students tested return positive.

 

[dinglefritz]

Well, the White House task force has called Missouri a Red Zone because of case rate and is recommending a statewide masking ordinance along with curfews on bars.

My area has gone from 1500 to 4200 confirmed cases in 30 days, which is heavily attributed to the return of college students which last week had almost 50% of the students tested return positive.

South Dakota went through the same rise in positive cases in the first 2 weeks after classes resumed. National media and political operatives blamed their governor and the Sturgis Rally. Cases are already dropping statewide. Missouri colleges will go through the same initial bump in cases then will gradually taper off after a couple of weeks. When you bring in students who were in more isolated rural living situations and mingle them with a bunch of urban kids who may have already been exposed, new cases are to be expected. The good news is that the rise in cases in South Dakota didn't result in a statistically significant change in hospitalizations or deaths.

 

[starbrown]

Everyone remember this ... the left wins when they get you to focus on the small picture ... that's why they flip out over individual stories like George Floyd. Don't let them do that. Stay focused on the macro-picture. The big picture is ALWAYS more important than the small picture.
It's like the example of the bear and the alligator ... in a fight between the 2 the winner is determined by whether they are fighting in a swamp or a mountain side.
Don't let the left drag you into their domain. Keep the focus on the benefit to stable and meritorious society. They need chaos to win anything because their ideas suck ... and I mean always suck. They claim logic as their trump card when they are in fact peddling immature emotion.
And that is the KEY to victory. THEY CAN'T TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PUBESCENT EMOTION AND LOGIC. You and I can. That's OUR trump card. Pay attention when you debate them. They confuse emotion with logic. That's why phony victimization is everything in their Universe. When someone gets convicted of a horrible crime and then cries in the courtroom, we feel pity, even though the person hasn't earned that response. They use that against us. They see that as weak, because they don't feel pity for anyone but themselves. That's why you can never shame them. Decent people feel shame even for things they haven't done. The left knows this and uses it against decent people. That's how they win fights with people better than them. Don't ... let ... that ... happen!

 

[GBRforLife1]

Well, the White House task force has called Missouri a Red Zone because of case rate and is recommending a statewide masking ordinance along with curfews on bars.

My area has gone from 1500 to 4200 confirmed cases in 30 days, which is heavily attributed to the return of college students which last week had almost 50% of the students tested return positive.

This is why it is no longer a pandemic, but a casedemic. It also highlights the absolute stupidity of testing healthy/asymptomatic people, the overly sensitive pcr test, and calling a positive test a case.

Welcome to herd immunity.

 

[Antwill]

This is why it is no longer a pandemic, but a casedemic. It also highlights the absolute stupidity of testing healthy/asymptomatic people, the overly sensitive pcr test, and calling a positive test a case.

Welcome to herd immunity.

Exactly. We should be letting these college students and below run all over the place without masks, go to school, play their sports. Should have been doing that from almost the beginning. Actually, we should have let people of all ages decide for themselves what they were willing to risk to live their lives. Just like we have done for all of history.

 

[B1G RED RULES]

If you dont know you are better off not knowing.


They are a batch of conspiracy theory wingnuts

Looks like another fringe group, like many others. I did some reading and looking on YouTube to see violence from them, but could not. The biggest threat I found is that they are spreading their conspiracy message.

If that is it - what am I missing? Hell, that is why I didn’t know who they were - because I quit watching the purveyors of conspiracy theories called the mainstream media years ago.

 

[mwulf]

Looks like another fringe group, like many others. I did some reading and looking on YouTube to see violence from them, but could not. The biggest threat I found is that they are spreading their conspiracy message.

If that is it - what am I missing? Hell, that is why I didn’t know who they were - because I quit watching the purveyors of conspiracy theories called the mainstream media years ago.

Violence isnt really their deal ....insanity is though. The scary thing is law enforcement has members of this fringe group and they were labeled a domestic terrorist group by the FBI. Anytime you see a savethechildren post take it with a huge grain of salt.

This actually is a good video pointing out the dangers of this growing cult

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Can you also post Mr. Noah's piece on Antifa and the denouncement of that activity? Or his expose on the money trail from BLM donations?

 

[Antwill]

Violence isnt really their deal ....insanity is though. The scary thing is law enforcement has members of this fringe group and they were labeled a domestic terrorist group by the FBI. Anytime you see a savethechildren post take it with a huge grain of salt.

This actually is a good video pointing out the dangers of this growing cult

View embedded media

This has about as much credibility as a QANON video about Noah would have.